Jim Bowden Hates Scrappy 2nd Basemen Who Can Actually Play

Jim Bowden posted an article today about the 10 best contracts in baseball. As per usual, it has egregious mistakes. The list is below:

1. New York Yankees: Robinson Cano, 2B, four years: 2008-11, $30 million, AAV: $7.5 million

Hands down, Cano is one of the top five players in the American League right now. For all the great work that Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has done for the Yankees -- signing free agents CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira and trading for Curtis Granderson or drafting players like Phil Hughes -- he doesn't get enough credit for his foresight in shrewd multiyear deals like Cano’s.

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2. Tampa Bay Rays: David Price, LHP, six years: 2007-12, $8.5 million, AAV: $1.4 million

Rays GM Andrew Friedman has three of the top contracts in baseball. He has a keen eye for talent and knows how to leverage players during their non-arbitration years to get the best possible long-term deal. Price’s deal will save the club millions over the span of the contract.

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3. Tampa Bay Rays: Evan Longoria, 3B, six years: 2008-13, $17.5 million, AAV: $2.9 million

The Rays kept Longoria in the minors as long as possible to maintain contract leverage and protect the arbitration years. They used this leverage masterfully to eventually sign one of the best third basemen in baseball to a contract that assured the team control of Longoria at a manageable amount through 2013.

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4. Tampa Bay Rays: Matt Moore, LHP, five years: 2012-16, $14 million, AAV: $2.8 million

Friedman also kept Moore in the minor leagues as long as possible this past year until he realized he had to promote the starter for the Rays to make the playoffs. Moore showed off his No. 1 starter’s stuff in September. Instead of waiting and risking potential huge financial hits during Moore’s arbitration years, Friedman wrapped him up with a contract that was an absolute steal for the club if he can stay healthy throughout it.

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5. Atlanta Braves: Brian McCann, C, six years: 2007-12, $28.5 million, AAV: $4.75 million

The Braves did a tremendous job when they signed McCann, one of the top three catchers in the National League, to his current deal. McCann's all-around ability on both sides would have made him a very difficult player to take through the arbitration system, especially in a league with so few elite catchers. Unfortunately for the Braves, the contract will expire after this season, and my instincts say his next contract will be much more player-friendly.

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6. Milwaukee Brewers: Yovani Gallardo, RHP, five years: 2010-14, $30 million, AAV: $6 million

Gallardo set the market for young starting pitchers when he signed his contract before the 2010 season. Gallardo is a workhorse capable of 15 wins and 200 innings every year. Milwaukee Brewers GM Doug Melvin did such a great job on this contract not just for the Brewers, but it helped both the Toronto Blue Jays and Cincinnati Reds sign Ricky Romero and Johnny Cueto, respectively, to similar five-year deals the next year. It was an industry changer for clubs that clearly identified what a young top starter should be paid during his arbitration-eligible years.

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7. Toronto Blue Jays: Ricky Romero, LHP, five years: 2011-15, $30.1 million, AAV: $6.02 million

Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos is one of the bright young GMs in the game, and his signing of Romero is part of the several shrewd moves he's made since taking over the Blue Jays. Romero has become one of the best and most consistent left-handed starters in the league, and the Jays have him at a reasonable salary through 2015, years during which the Jays fully expect to be in contention for the AL East crown.

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8. Cincinnati Reds: Johnny Cueto, RHP, four years: 2011-14, $27 million, AAV: $6.75 million

Cueto signed his contract before last season, and he rewarded Reds GM Walt Jocketty with the best full season of his career. Cueto quickly proved he was a pure No. 2 starter with the potential to develop into a No. 1. The Reds have him locked up for three more seasons as they continue to try to build one of the best young staffs in the division with newly acquired Mat Latos, Cueto, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake.

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9. Arizona Diamondbacks: Justin Upton, RF, six years: 2010-15, $51.25 million, AAV: $8.5 million

Upton became an MVP candidate in 2011, and most baseball analysts believe that he's capable of taking his game to yet another level in 2012 and possibly match Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp as one of the best all-around players in the game. Upton signed his deal before the 2010 season, and it won't expire until after 2015. This deal is extremely club-friendly especially when one considers the sizable contract extensions of Kemp and Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez.

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10. Kansas City Royals: Billy Butler, DH, four years: 2011-14, $30 million, AAV: $7.5 million

One of the most underrated hitters in baseball, Butler continues to hit for average and drive in runs as one of the keys to the Royals’ lineup. Considering the marketplace for some of the best hitters in the game, there is no doubt his deal becomes very club-friendly in 2013 and 2014 if he continues his progress and the Royals start to win.

Lets first establish the fact that Jim Bowden does not include team options when evaluating these contracts. With that point, how the hell is Robinson Cano number one on this list, WHEN HIS CONTRACT IS EXPIRED. By my count, his $14 million dollar option for this year is his contract now, and it sure as hell makes Cano's contract look a lot worse then that tidy 7.5 million number. Granted, Cano is worth every penny and more of $14 million per year, but would I rather pay Evan Longoria 2.6 million per year, or Cano $14 million? Easy answer. Longoria should be number 1 on this list, and it isn't even close. And why aren't options involved in this evaluation? Since the contract are all great contract, isn't it safe to assume that the team is going to pick up the option? And by my count, every single one of the option years in these players contracts would set back free agency an extra year for these guys, adding even more value to the contract for the team. This must be taken into account, as that last year would be compared to the per year dollar amount one of these guys would expect to get in the open market. And everyone of these guys is worth a lot more than that option year, except perhaps Billy Butler, which is the next topic of my rant.

I like Billy Butler, the guy can rake, he's young, and he'll take a walk. But let's be honest, a guy who brings no value to the table defensively is going to have a harder time being an elite player. And that's Butler's problem, as he's an above average hitter, but not an elite one, since he has mainly doubles power. Nothing wrong with that, but for 7.5 million year, it took me about 2 seconds to find a guy who makes less money AVV while also being a much better player. Jim Bowden, esteemed former MLB GM, have you ever heard of Dustin Pedroia?

Over his 3+ year career, Billy Butler has accumulated 6.8 WAR by being a very good hitter combined with horrible baserunning and zero defensive value added. Pedroia is a former league MVP who is making 6.7 million per year on average over his 6 year contract who accumulated 8 WAR IN 2011 ALONE. Even if you don't like WAR or sabermetrics, I'll present you with another way to look at this. Butler triple slashed .291/.361/.461 in 2011 while DHing, while Pedroia went for .307/.387/.474, and also contributing Gold Glove defense at 2nd base. Pedroia also makes less money per season over the length of contract than Butler. Next week, perhaps there will be a column with a list of people who get paid a lot to suck at their jobs. I nominate Jim Bowden to write that column.

Hawks Waive 3 Players

Pape Sy, Brad Wanamaker, and Magnum Rolle were all waived today to cut the Hawks roster down to 16. Although the Hawks starting lineup is quite young still, with 4 out of 5 players still 26 or younger, the bench is, well, not so much. Ages for the backups:

Pachulia- 27 years old
Benson- 23
Sloan- 23
Ivan Johnson- 27 years old

These are the young guys still on the roster. Pachulia obviously isn't going anywhere, but I think Sloan and Johnson are likely to get cut, despite their decent preseason play. Here's where things get fun:

McGrady- 32
Pargo- 32
Green- 30
Stackhouse- 37
Collins- 33
Hinrich- 30
Radmonovic- 31

Lets just load the bench down with guys who have no chance of getting better. Meanwhile, the Hawks continue to be one of the worst in the league at developing players, as well as allocating resources towards player development. Buying out Pape Sy's contract and bringing him over to the NBA to do nothing but watch is just a terrible allocation of resources for a team on a tight budget. Now that they have cut him this year, what was accomplished. This could have been avoided, especially when everyone and their brother knew that Pape Sy wasn't going to contribute much last year. Why waste a roster spot, and money, more importantly, when he could have continued to be your property while developing overseas. Failures like this are why it is so frustrating to be a Hawks fan. They should be doing everything they can to find assets on the cheap, as well as allocating what few resources they have left under the cap in better ways. Now they just have dead weight. Like always.

Hawks Make a Typical Hawks Signing

The Hawks have attempted to fill their gaping hole (with Kirk Hinrich's injury) at backup point guard by signing Jannero Pargo, a 32 year old who was last a useful player in the NBA in 2008. As you might expect, the Hawks still have a gaping hole at backup point guard. I suppose Pargo could exceed my expectation, but lets take a quick look at why I think Pargo is a bad signing, as opposed to maybe keeping one of Donald Sloan or Brad Wannamaker instead.

First reason is shot selection. Jannero Pargo's best skill as an NBA player is that he is a shot creator, which has some uses when you are a bench player. However, his favorite type of shot is the 16-23 foot jumper, which is the number one shot the Hawks need to move away from, as its the least efficient shot in basketball. The Hawks attempted the 2nd most shots in the NBA from this distance last season, and their offense will continue to be league average as long as that continues. In addition, Pargo's 42.9% true shooting percentage is just awful, as he is not a good 3 point shooter, not does he get to the line very much. Basically, he is a chucker, and an inefficient one. He will have games when the shots go in, but many more when they don't.

2nd reason is that he isn't really a point guard. His assist rate fell all the way under 20% in 2010, which is an awful number for a guy who is going to be running the one. As long as he is playing with Tracy McGrady, this might not be a huge issue, as TMac is a willing and able passer of the basketball who can create for others. However, there will be many games when McGrady either can't go, or will be completely ineffective because of his balky knees, and the idea of Pargo initiating the offense for the bench unit makes me shudder.

Lastly, his defensive numbers were weak in all facets, which Michael Cunningham covers in his short blog post about it on AJC.com. So with all of this knowledge, and the fact that they will probably have to pay Pargo more as a veteran than they would one of the kids, why did they make this signing. I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Veteran experience only matters if said veteran has game. This applies to Jerry Stackhouse as well, who hasn't had anything left for about 3 years and is still going to get a chance with the Hawks. Brad Wanamaker was rated 37th overall by John Hollinger in his pre draft ratings, and he is a guy who can play both guard positions, defend, rebound, pass, and draw fouls. His one drawback is he isn't a great shooter. However, that can be learned and developed, and he is cheaper anyway. Since the Hawks are pushed up against the glass regarding the luxury tax, why, why, why, must they always throw away opportunities to develop a young asset for the minimum? He may not develop into anything, but at least there is a chance. With Stackhouse and Pargo, we already know they can't play.

Jim Bowden is Still Terrible at His Job

I like making fun of Jim Bowden, as he was a very average MLB general manager who now gets paid to think like a GM would and write about it on ESPN.com. The other day, he listed his top 5 currently undervalued free agents, and 4 of them I actually liked but. But the 5th? Francisco Cordero? You have to be kidding me Jim:

3. Francisco Cordero, CL
Age: 36 | 2011 stats: 2.45 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 37 saves, 69.2 IP

Why he’s undervalued: Cordero has flown under the radar a bit because the market was flooded with closers this offseason, both in free agency as well as in the trade market. The Philadelphia Phillies signed Jonathan Papelbon, the Miami Marlins signed Heath Bell, the Texas Rangers signed Joe Nathan, the San Diego Padres traded for Huston Street, the Red Sox traded for Mark Melancon, and Francisco Rodriguez accepted salary arbitration with the Milwaukee Brewers.

Still, Cordero is a three-time All-Star who had an ERA under 3.00 in two of the last three years, despite pitching half of his games in the Great American Ball Park.

Francisco Cordero registered a fantastic return of .1 WAR on his 12 million dollar salary last year. He's 36 years old, his K per 9 innings has tumbled from 9.98 in 2008 to 5.43 last year, and his BABIP was .214, 80 points lower than the next lowest full season BABIP of his entire career. His average fastball velocity dropped from 94.5 mph in 2010 to 93 mph in 2011. He also had 37 saves, which means his salary will be inflated next year because of the overvaluing of the save stat in the baseball market place. His signing would also mean a team would have to surrender a draft pick to get him. All of this information took me less than 5 minutes to find. Would you rather pay a guy 400k out of your farm system for 60 innings with a 4.5 FIP, or would you rather pay a guy 5 to 8 million for Francisco Cordero to do the same? Jim Bowden, you have a job. Do it better.

Reaction from the NBA/MLB day of Free Agency

A lot has happened today on the free agency front in both the NBA and MLB. Here are some thoughts, first with MLB.

Albert Pujols signs for the Angels-
10 years, $254 million for a 31 year old first baseman. That's a lot of money. Assuming 5% inflation and a marginal win being valued at $5 million, my crude estimates say that Albert needs to produce about 41 WAR for it to realize full value. Albert is awesome though, so it is possible that he could produce this much, with his best chance probably being to have some really good years at the front end. In the end though, to give anyone ten years is a huge risk, so the Angels are banking on some good health as Albert gets older. But in the short term though, he obviously makes them a lot better.

CJ Wilson also signs for the Angels-
This one was needed by the Angels more than Albert, frankly, as their rotation depth was terrible outside the top three. Haren and Weaver are excellent, Santana is very good, but after that? Yikes. They already traded Tyler Chatwood, who sucks anyway, and other options include both Jerome Williams and Horacio Ramirez. Yes, that Horacio Ramirez. Joel Piniero is also a free agent, coming off a very mediocre campaign. Wilson is without a doubt a huge upgrade over those guys, despite the fact that he has command issues and has had elbow problems in the past. If he has another year like last year in him, however, this contract will have a hard time being a complete bust. The Angels got better today without a doubt.

Now the NBA, which is the good stuff
Caron Butler signs with the Clippers-
The Clippers had so much working for them. Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon. Decent cap room currently, with some intriguing young players like DeAndre Jordan, Eric Bledsoe, and Al-Farouq Aminu. And then this happened, reminding us that we can count on the Clippers as much as we can count on death and taxes. 3 years, 24 million for a small forward who doesn't fit what they need. Did I mention he's played in 103 games the last 3 seasons? Or that he doesn't pass, with an assist rate worse than Corey Maggette last year, who hasn't made an unselfish play since in, well, a while. Just what Griffin and Gordon want is a ball stopping wing who clogs the cap and can't stay on the floor. He's also not a great shooter/floor spacer. Well done Clippers, Blake's best friend still remains unsigned. Will your penny pinching owner go over the cap to resign Jordan, and make Blake happy? Donald Sterling.

Tayshaun Prince resigns for 4 years with the Pistons-
Tayshaun isn't a bad player, but at 31 years old, he probably isn't going to be a major factor on the Pistons next good team. So, the logical thing is to resign him for 4 years at almost 7 million a season and take away playing time from Austin Daye and Jonas Jerbeko. Perfect. The Pistons aren't going anywhere, so why resign him? I just don't get this.

Rumored Chris Paul traded to LAL(based on Adrian Wojnarowski's report)-
This is so annoying, that the Lakers can trade for a guy this good, and still keep Andrew Bynum so they can trade for Dwight Howard. This is actually going to happen now, despite the fact that Bynum will never ever be healthy in his entire career. I don't know what New Orleans has really accomplished with this, as they are picking up (rumored) 3 very good players who are all close to or on the wrong side of 30 in Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, and Lamar Odom. In addition, we aren't hearing any rumors that Okafor and Ariza are going anywhere, who are their two bad contracts. Okafor's still a pretty good player, and he fits with the potential new guys, so it makes sense to keep him, but New Orleans has to make the Lakers take Trevor Ariza in a deal. Why wouldn't they? Do they really want to keep a guy who shot less than 40% WHILE PLAYING WITH CHRIS FREAKING PAUL? He's also owed over 20 million dollars over the next 3 years. New Orleans could actually be pretty good this year, but they aren't championship worthy. And there is no chance of them getting better after 2012 if this deal goes down. I just think they could have done better (i.e. younger) while also getting a draft pick in next year's loaded draft, but who knows.

And Memo to Otis Smith. You do not want Andrew Bynum. Make sure this doesn't happen. The lockout was all about competitive balance, and two of the 10 best players in the NBA are going to go to one of the NBAs best teams as soon as it ends. It is all in your hands now, Otis. Unfortunately, I don't trust you.

Season Grades: Infield

This will be the first of a series of posts grading out the Braves players/coaches on the season, along with some thoughts from me about what went right/wrong, and future prospects of each player.

Brian McCann-
After almost 4 months of the 2011 season you could make a legitimate argument that Mac was having his best season as a big leaguer, which is pretty impressive when you are a six time All Star. He was voted an all star starter for the very first time, and deservedly so, as he put up a .310/.381/.514 first half line, which are outstanding numbers at any position, especially at catcher. However, it all went wrong in that marathon game against Pittsburgh in late July, when McCann strained his oblique and went on the DL. After that, he was a shell of his former self, and was certainly a contributing cause to the Braves collapse in September. Overall though, its tough to complain with 3.7 fWAR from your catcher, and McCann's overall contribution was a significant plus. With an offseason to get fully healthy, rested, and work out any mechanical issues in his swing, I imagine he will be fine next year. He will be in his age 28 season, and as long as the injury bug doesn't pop up again (this was his first non fluky injury ever), he should be back on the All Star team. Grade=B, as I can't go any higher than that because of his terrible final 35 games, but the Braves had much bigger problems this year.

Freddie Freeman- Freddie surprised me this year, as my expectation were fairly low for him. As a 21 year old first baseman who didn't have a great deal of patience in the minors, I thought it could be a roller coaster year for him. There were some peaks and valleys for him, but overall .282/.346/.446 from a guy that young is very positive, especially in what was a negative run environment across baseball this season. Freddie is a hacker, but watching him play this year has me a lot more confident that he will do just fine as an aggressive hitter. He knows what he's doing, and he hits the ball hard (line drive percentage was an excellent 23% this year). His hit tool is clearly plus, and he showed a bit of power too, belting 21 home runs. Power was a bit of a question for him, but it appears he has a chance to be a consistent 25+ homer guy in the bigs. The main thing we learned, though, is the kid can hit.

What we also learned is that Freddie has some of the best hands in all of baseball around first base, routinely digging out errant throws from all over the infield diamond. He's an outstanding receiver of the baseball over at first base, and that really helps with some below average fielders around him. However, we also learned that Freddie has the range of a statue over at first base, often getting beaten to both sides throughout the season. He needs to get better in that regard, as UZR, Defensive Runs Saved, and the naked eye all saw his range as well below average at first. Despite this his contribution was a net positive, considering the expectations. I'm sure the Braves were happy with his overall impact, and I was as well. Grade=B

Dan Uggla- What a crazy season this dude had. First half featured a triple slash worse than I could have ever imagined, hitting a paltry .185/.257/.365. However, the second half contained all sorts of Dan Uggla goodness, hitting a spectacular .296/.379/.569.

So, what changed for Dan? It appeared to me that his plate discipline became a lot better, as his walk rate did rise steadily as the season went on. However, I think the biggest thing that happened was that he stopped making contact with pitches off the plate when he offered. His 27.1% out of the zone swing percentage was far and away the worst of his career, and he made contact on 55.1% of those swings which was the highest percentage of his career. However, that percentage dropped from closer to 60% as the season hit the second half. Thus, when Dan made contact, he made harder contact which is backed up by his line drive rates in the 2nd half (16.7%, 16.9%, and 18.6% in July, August, and September respectively, as opposed to 14.3% in May and June and 12.6% in April). Overall, his season produced 2.5 fWAR, not a bad number, and means his 9 million salary this year turned out to be a bit of a bargain, as the market rate for WAR this off season was around 5 million per win. His defense was pretty bad, as expected, but he turned out to be a decent baserunner, and he came to the post every day. Overall though, we expected more, and his grade will reflect that. Grade=C+

Alex Gonzalez- While Dan Uggla turned in a half season of awful at the plate, Alex Gonzalez treated us to a whole season of it, single handedly undermining many a Braves rally by flailing helplessly at many a slider off the plate away. And why did this happen? Pretty simple really, as Alex's walk rate was its lowest in 10 years (even his putrid standards thinks 3.7% is awful), which he combined with the highest strikeout rate of his career. The combination of Larry Parrish's aggressive hitting teachings and Alex's aggressive hitting tendencies mixed about as well as oil and water. After checking out his K and BB numbers, it should surprise no one that Alex swung at 43.4% of pitches out of the strike zone, which was 2.5% higher than any other season of his career (which happened to be last year, when he also blew his previous career high/low out of zone swing percentage out of the water. Not a good trend for a 34 year old shortstop). To put that number in persepctive, it was 5th highest among qualified hitters, trailing legendary hackers Vladimir Guerrero and Miguel Olivo, Alfonso Soriano's steaming carcass, and Orioles center fielder Adam Jones. He also made more contact with pitches out of the zone than he ever had, which is just a terrible, terrible combination. That led to a .241/.270/.372, which is pretty awful even for a major league shortstop.

Alex did bring a little bit of value on the other side, as he played a terrific defensive shortstop throughout the year, especially in the first half. As the one plus defender on the infield, it was important for him to bring that day and day out, and for that he should be commended. UZR actually didn't like him much, listing him as league average at short, but Defensive Runs Saved had him at +15 runs in the field, second highest in the bigs and behind only defensive whiz Brendan Ryan. Fangraphs had him at 1.1 WAR, which probably speaks more to the lack of quality at shortstop in the bigs than any positive Alex did this season. The Braves will hopefully move on next year, as they have a guy in the minors who should be around league average defensively and will actually take a pitch in the minors. Grade=C-, thanks to his glove.

Chipper Jones-Chipper had a nice season for a 39 year old, posting a pretty decent line of .275/.344/.470, which showed a really nice rebound in the power department, as his ISO power was approaching .200 for the first time since 2008. He posted the lowest walk rate of his career however, which kind of mitigated his increase in power. Combining those aspects and a depressed run environment, his season was actually pretty similar to last year. The drop in plate discipline is a bit concerning, but it probably tells us that Chipper was actually feeling really good at the plate this year and was taking his hacks because of it. His BB rate was still 10%, which is above average, but pales in comparison to his career 14.3%. Because of this, I think Chipper could actually increase his value next year by taking more walks, which is a skill that shouldn't erode despite his age.

Chipper will be a bit of a question mark next year, as he will be 40, is very much injury prone, and is now a statue at 3rd base. He was never unbelievable over at 3rd, but I really thought his defense took a step back this year. Advanced metrics both had him very much below average as well. Next year, we will hopefully see another 130 games or so from Chipper, but I would like to see Fredi actually replace him late in a game with a lead to get a better fielder at 3rd (Prado, who is a terrific defensive 3rd baseman but fairly average in left). He almost never did this, and it would help with getting those final outs, as well as giving Chipper a bit of extra rest. Overall, though, his season was good, but not great. Grade- B-.

The Braves infield wasn't awful this year in most areas, but there was not really any standout performers this year either. When that is combined with a black hole at shortstop, it certainly left the Braves wanting a bit more. However, many of the players in place can very easily improve their performance a bit, with the 3 most likely spots being Uggla (will have a hard time repeating that awful 1st half), Freeman (only 21), and McCann (staying healthy). That doesn't even include shortstop, where getting any on base ability at all in place there will be a big improvement in 2012.

Quick Braves Thoughts: What Went Right, What Didn't

Heartbreaking end to the season for the Braves, as they capped an ugly September with a five game losing streak that allowed the St. Louis Cardinals to make up 4 games in 5 days and snatch the NL wild card from the Braves on the season's last day. Since the Braves had held sole possession of the NL wild card since the middle of June, it goes without saying that it was a pretty disheartening way to end the season. And looking back on things, its kind of shocking to see that the Braves won 89 games, yet plenty of things went wrong. But first, lets take a look at what went better than expected for Atlanta.

-Eric O'Flaherty, Jonny Venters, and Craig Kimbrel
Despite a bit of a struggle at the end, which may or may not have been due to overuse, this trio was awesome. They combined to put up 6.6 fWAR this year, which is an unheard of number for just 3 relievers. For comparison's sake, Cliff Lee and Clayton Kershaw each put up 6.8 fWAR in roughly the same amount of innings. That just about says it all. O'Flaherty posted the highest K rate of his career in tandem with the lowest walk rate, while also maintaining his extreme ground ball tendencies (55.5 %). Venters struck out almost 10 per 9 innings while also topping the league in groundball rate (an absurd 72.5%). And Kimbrel was better than both of them, striking out almost 15 per 9 while combining that with a 3.97 to 1 K/BB ratio. His FIP of 1.52 led all major league relievers who qualified, finishing .01 ahead of Jonathan Papelbon. Ironically, both blew saves when their team could least afford at last night. Strange game, this baseball.

-Brandon Beachy
It sure is nice when your organization is loaded with pitching prospects, and its even better when a guy no one has heard of coming in to the season turns out to be a keeper. Beachy struck out 10.74 batters per 9 innings, an outstanding number for anyone, much less a rookie. In addition, Beachy had to walk 9 guys in his last 10.1 innings just to get his BB per 9 ratio to 2.92. I doubt he ever becomes a true ace, but numbers like that are going to have him in somebody's rotation for many years to come. The next step in his development will be getting deeper into games, but that should come with a bit more experience. With 4 average to plus pitches and plus plus command, he looks like a border line number 2 starter or a very solid number 3. Lots to be excited about with Beachy.

-Freddie Freeman's bat
I didn't really know what to expect with Freddie at the plate this season, as he was very young and was a pretty aggressive hitter all through the minors. You never really know for sure until they hit the majors, but after 6 week adjustment period to the bigs, his bat was very solid. He is aggressive, but he knows what he is doing at the plate and hits an awful lot of line drives (23%). His 8.3% walk rate wasn't bad for a 21 year old rookie either. Freddie's youth and the fact that he has already shown the ability to make adjustments gives reason for optimism about his future. Freddie has some things to work on, mainly his range at first (he has the range of a statue) and his batting eye, but his rookie season wasn't a bad start at all

Tim Hudson and Chipper Jones could go in this category too, but I thought they did about what was expected. Chipper's power had a bit of a revival, but he had a disappointing decline in his walk rate which pretty much neglected the added power. And I always expect consistency and stability from Hudson, and this year was more of the same. He was fantastic, which is just what I and most Braves fans expected.

And what went wrong:

Injuries to Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens-
The pair of young right handers were stellar in the Braves starting rotation for the first half of the season. Hanson was absolutely stellar in the first half, posting a 2.44 ERA with better than a strikeout an inning and a K/BB ratio over 3 to 1. He also gave up less than 1 HR per 9 innings. All those stats say that he was the best Braves starter in the first half of the year, and not having him for the stretch run was a huge blow. Hanson's long term health is one of the biggest factors for the Braves' success for the future, as he has number on starter potential. As for Jurrjens, he was fantastic in the first half as well, posting a 1.87 ERA. He wasn't nearly as good as his ERA indicated, as he doesn't miss nearly enough bats, but his command was excellent, with just 25 walks in 110 innings. He had made improvements this year, and having him down the stretch instead of untested rookies would have been nice, possibly to save the bullpen a few innings. We will see about Jair's future with the Braves, but he's a quality middle of the rotation starter who could help a lot of teams.

-Derek Lowe
I don't think he pitched nearly as bad as his ERA says he did, but a pitcher's number one job is to keep runs from scoring, and in that regard, Derek Lowe failed miserably. Lowe's ERA was 5.05, and he was a disaster down the stretch in the time his team needed him most, posting an 8.75 ERA in September. For 15 million a year, that obviously isn't good enough. The Braves will try to deal him in the offseason I'm sure, but it won't be a very easy chore unfortunately. His K rate did improve, his FIP was actually a very solid 3.65, and he still kept the ball in the yard (.67 HR per 9 innings). Those are the numbers the Braves will be selling this offseason, and a team with a decent defense behind it could be tempted, as long as the Braves throw in plenty of money or perhaps package him with someone. To be continued.

-Offense
The Braves finished 26th out of 30 teams in OBP, their wOBA percentage was 23rd, and tied for 21st in wRC+. It was not pretty at all. Lets go through the Braves' every day lineup and take a look at the carnage from 2010 to 2011. Note on Michael Bourn, his stats will be 2011 with Astros and 2011 with Braves. I'll explain why a bit later

Bourn- 2011-.303/.363/.403 - .278/.321/.352
Prado-2010- .307/.350/.459 - 2011-.260/.302/.385
Jones- 2010-.265/.381/.426 - 2011- .275/.344/.470
Uggla-2010-.287/.369/.508 - 2011- .233/.311/.453
McCann- 2010- .269/.375/.453 - 2011- .270/.351/.466
Freeman- N/A rookie
Gonzalez- 2010- .250/.294/.447 - 2011-.240/.270/.372
Heyward-2010- .277/.393/.456 - 2011- .227/.319/.389

One theme here is that every single Brave hitter had a decrease in on base percentage from 2010 to 2011. The second theme here is that every single one of these Braves had a new hitting coach in 2011, one who preached aggressiveness at the plate. If every single hitter regresses from one year to the next (with the exception of Freeman obviously, as he was a minor league player last year), is it reasonable to believe that the hitting coach might have something to do with it? I think so, and thankfully, the Braves organization does too, as its already been announced Larry Parrish won't be back. All I can say is it was about 3 or 4 months too late.