Fredi Gonzalez has done it again today, holding Brian McCann out of the starting line up a night after clubbing 2 homers on his way to going 4 for 5 last night versus the Cincinnati Reds. The Braves have a 1 o'clock start tomorrow against San Diego, and McCann did catch 12 innings last night, so he was going to be in need of a break either tonight or tomorrow. I get that catchers can't catch every day, since it is such a physically taxing position. But he should sit tomorrow instead of tonight, since Fredi continues to claim that David Ross is not going to be Jair's "personal" catcher. Tonight's starter Johnny Cueto has given up 2 homers in 6 career at bats to McCann. Not much of a sample size, but you have to like that track record if you are a Braves' fan. Ross is 0 for 1 in his career against Cueto.
Meanwhile, tomorrow's starter for San Diego is Aaron Harang, who David Ross had a fun night against back in April, when he memorably socked 2 homers off of him to lead the Braves to an easy win. Ross is 4 for 9 with 3 homers in his career against Harang. Of course, McCann has pummeled Harang in his career as well, going 8 for 17 against him with 5 extra base hits against him (2 HRs). Fredi wasn't going to go wrong there, but considering both have excellent track records against Harang and only 1 has one against Cueto, I think McCann should be starting tonight. Looking at those numbers though, I kinda wish Ross could play 2nd base tomorrow.
Sunday, May 29, 2011
Potential Players Available at #18 in the NBA Draft
Number 18 is the spot that the Hawks would have occupied if not for the Kirk Hinrich trade. If you remember, the Hawks traded for Hinrich and Hilton Armstrong's incompetence by giving the Wizards Maurice Evans, Mike Bibby's carcass, Jordan Crawford, and their 2011 first round pick. Despite the fact that Kirk Hinrich is a decent fit on this basketball team because of his defensive acumen, shooting ability both off the catch and the dribble, and his ability to play both guard positions, this trade hurts a little bit at this particular point. One reason is Jeff Teague's play in the conference semifinals, showing that it is pretty likely that the Hawks had an upgrade at point guard already on the roster, rather than having to trade for one. The play of Jordan Crawford after the trade is another reason for skepticism, as Crawford has shown plenty of ability to score the basketball and create shots, something that the bench next year is really going to need if and when Jamal Crawford is not resigned. Whether or not Jordan Crawford can score efficiently enough to be a really effective player is still unknown at this point, but the fact that he is young (i.e. should improve), cheap and under team control for 3 more years, while also having an obvious ability to create shots, often useful in a second unit. Reason number 3 is that they had to give up the number 18 pick in a draft where there are going to be some useful players available in that spot.
The topic of this post is to list some players that could be available in that spot who I think could really help the Hawks. I see this draft as one without much star power in it, but is really strong in the back end of the 1st round. Basically, I don't think the talent gap is really that big between the top picks and guys who go later on. There may not be many All Stars in the draft, but I do think there are a lot of guys who will contribute and have NBA careers of a decent length. Who would have fit for the Hawks and may have been available in that spot? Let's have a look:
Kenneth Faried, PF, Morehead State- It pains me to have to write his name here, as I really think he would be an excellent addition. Faried is an athletic rebounding machine from Morehead St., one who brings endless energy and effort to the floor. In addition, his combination of athleticism, length, and energy should make him a really solid defender at the next level as well. He may not score much more than garbage buckets, but everything else he brings means that lack of scoring acumen shouldn't hinder him too much. Plus, I think he is an extremely low risk pick without much bust potential. Why? Rebounding is the one skill that most consistently translates to the next level. If you rebound in college, you are probably rebounding in the pros. Faried will be no different. In addition, Faried would be a good fit alongside Zaza Pachulia. They both crash the offensive glass hard and would be extremely difficult for most second units to keep off the glass. In addition, Zaza can play away from the basket a little bit, so the fact that Faried likes to stay right around the basket on offensive would probably not be an issue on the Hawks.
Tobias Harris, SF/PF, Tennessee- Harris is more of a 3-4 tweener, but I think he would fit pretty well. As a 4 he would be a guy who could play well away from the bucket, with enough skill to take advantage of slower guys off the bounce. He can probably play some 3 as well, where he could take advantage of his size on the block, while also having the ability to make a jumper. In addition, he tested out as a much better athlete at the combine than most were giving him credit for. Harris is a smart player who has a lot of skills, and his versatility would be valuable coming off the bench for the Hawks. Also, he won't turn 19 until July, adding some extra upside when predicting his future.
Reggie Jackson, PG, Boston College- Jackson has always been a guy I've really liked, and I think he could contribute to a Hawks roster without a Hinrich trade. Jackson has great size for the point guard spot, an awesome 7'0" wingspan that should allow him to guard a lot of 2s at the next level, good athleticism, and the ability to get to the tin. He also shot 42% from 3 this year, meaning he could spot up off the ball (you know, when Joe Johnson goes iso. That does happen occasionally in the Hawks offense) as well if he was asked to do that some. Jackson's main question is whether he is a true point guard and can run an offense, but I think his athleticism and scoring ability means he would be a decent asset for most NBA clubs. He has a lot of talent.
Other guys that I like but am not convinced are great fits for the Hawks about are Donatas Matiejunas and Nikola Vucevic. I worry about Matiejunas' ability to rebound at the next level despite decent athleticism and a nice ability to score in a variety of ways, and Vucevic's lack of athleticism and foot speed would make him pretty similar to Zaza Pachulia. Having 2 bigs off the bench like that would make the bench extremely susceptible to pick and roll actions IMO.
Unfortunately, this is all an exercise in futility, as the Hawks have no first round pick because of a trade that they may not have had to make. For a team that is up against the salary cap, adding cheap assets through the draft should be a priority. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear to be a priority for the Hawks, trading their last 2 first round draft picks.
The topic of this post is to list some players that could be available in that spot who I think could really help the Hawks. I see this draft as one without much star power in it, but is really strong in the back end of the 1st round. Basically, I don't think the talent gap is really that big between the top picks and guys who go later on. There may not be many All Stars in the draft, but I do think there are a lot of guys who will contribute and have NBA careers of a decent length. Who would have fit for the Hawks and may have been available in that spot? Let's have a look:
Kenneth Faried, PF, Morehead State- It pains me to have to write his name here, as I really think he would be an excellent addition. Faried is an athletic rebounding machine from Morehead St., one who brings endless energy and effort to the floor. In addition, his combination of athleticism, length, and energy should make him a really solid defender at the next level as well. He may not score much more than garbage buckets, but everything else he brings means that lack of scoring acumen shouldn't hinder him too much. Plus, I think he is an extremely low risk pick without much bust potential. Why? Rebounding is the one skill that most consistently translates to the next level. If you rebound in college, you are probably rebounding in the pros. Faried will be no different. In addition, Faried would be a good fit alongside Zaza Pachulia. They both crash the offensive glass hard and would be extremely difficult for most second units to keep off the glass. In addition, Zaza can play away from the basket a little bit, so the fact that Faried likes to stay right around the basket on offensive would probably not be an issue on the Hawks.
Tobias Harris, SF/PF, Tennessee- Harris is more of a 3-4 tweener, but I think he would fit pretty well. As a 4 he would be a guy who could play well away from the bucket, with enough skill to take advantage of slower guys off the bounce. He can probably play some 3 as well, where he could take advantage of his size on the block, while also having the ability to make a jumper. In addition, he tested out as a much better athlete at the combine than most were giving him credit for. Harris is a smart player who has a lot of skills, and his versatility would be valuable coming off the bench for the Hawks. Also, he won't turn 19 until July, adding some extra upside when predicting his future.
Reggie Jackson, PG, Boston College- Jackson has always been a guy I've really liked, and I think he could contribute to a Hawks roster without a Hinrich trade. Jackson has great size for the point guard spot, an awesome 7'0" wingspan that should allow him to guard a lot of 2s at the next level, good athleticism, and the ability to get to the tin. He also shot 42% from 3 this year, meaning he could spot up off the ball (you know, when Joe Johnson goes iso. That does happen occasionally in the Hawks offense) as well if he was asked to do that some. Jackson's main question is whether he is a true point guard and can run an offense, but I think his athleticism and scoring ability means he would be a decent asset for most NBA clubs. He has a lot of talent.
Other guys that I like but am not convinced are great fits for the Hawks about are Donatas Matiejunas and Nikola Vucevic. I worry about Matiejunas' ability to rebound at the next level despite decent athleticism and a nice ability to score in a variety of ways, and Vucevic's lack of athleticism and foot speed would make him pretty similar to Zaza Pachulia. Having 2 bigs off the bench like that would make the bench extremely susceptible to pick and roll actions IMO.
Unfortunately, this is all an exercise in futility, as the Hawks have no first round pick because of a trade that they may not have had to make. For a team that is up against the salary cap, adding cheap assets through the draft should be a priority. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear to be a priority for the Hawks, trading their last 2 first round draft picks.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
A Look Back at the Adam Wainwright Trade
Thankfully, Braves' fans don't have to hear people bring this trade up this season, as Adam Wainwright is on the shelf for the season with Tommy John surgery. The former Braves' first rounder has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since in the 2 seasons leading up to this one, piling up a whopping 463 innings while posting 11.8 WAR in those two seasons combined. He has struck out over 8 per nine innings, posted ground ball rates over 50%, and had K/BB ratios of at least 3.25 to 1 in each of those 3 seasons. In addition, he was also the closer on a World Series winner in 2006. Wainwright is a fantastic pitcher, and I wish he still pitched for the Braves.
However, I still get frustrated when people talk about how fleeced the Braves got in this deal, because it isn't entirely true. I'm sure we all remember that the Braves got J.D. Drew and Eli Marrero from the Cardinals in that deal, and people hate the fact that Drew only played one season for the Braves. Why send away a potentially great pitcher to get a one year rental?
First off, we have to look at Wainwright's standing as a prospect at the time had dipped a bit at the time, and the Braves' system still had plenty of good pitching prospects in it (as it typically does). The Braves still had high hopes for guys such as Horacio Ramirez, Jose Capellan, Macay McBride, Anthony Lerew, Dan Meyer, and Kyle Davies. Unfortunately, none of those guys except Ramirez really made any contributions to the Braves, other than Meyer being a key part of the package that sent Tim Hudson to Atlanta. However, I think it is hard to blame John Schuerholz for dealing one of his good young pitchers when he had quite a few highly regarded arms behind Wainwright. The team was trying to win now, and Wainwright was the guy who good bring in a much needed bat to get the Braves back to playoffs. It is the way baseball goes, and I think it is likely that the Braves' current stable of young arms will be broken up a bit to provide the current big league club with some more offensive punch. Sometimes you have to deal those prospects (especially pitching prospects as they are so hit and miss. Did you see those names I listed above? My point exactly), and when you have plenty of others who you think will fill the void, you take the gamble.
The second part of this equation, and the most important part, is that the Braves hit a HOME FREAKING RUN on this deal in the 2004 season. J.D. Drew may have only played one season with the Braves, but they got about 2 seasons of production out of him, as Drew posted a stunning .305/.436/.569 slash line in 145 games played, while also managing to be 16.3 runs above average defensively in right field for that Braves team (quick tangent, but that Braves outfield was the best defensive outfield I've ever seen, and the numbers back me up on this. Drew was 16.3 runs above average, Andruw Jones was a ho hum 18.4 runs above average in center, and Charles Thomas was 9.5 runs above average in left. And people wondered how the Braves got production from a bunch of journeyman pitchers that year). According to FanGraphs WAR, J.D. Drew was the 5th best player in all of baseball that year, behind Barry Bonds, Randy Johnson, Adrian Beltre (his absurd 48 homer season), and Scott Rolen (Take a look at his player page on any baseball reference website and be prepared to be wowed. He was a terrific ball player in his prime). In fact, Drew was so good that he is the only player in the Chipper Jones era that has dislodged Chipper from his beloved 3 hole. Yes, he was that good.
The other forgotten factor of this deal was just how absurdly good Eli Marrero was in his one season with the Braves. He only got 280 plate appearances in his platoon role with Charles Thomas, but Marrero produced by far and away the best season of his career at the dish, hitting .320/.374/.520 for a ridiculous .382 wOBA from a really average hitter. His production was good enough for 1.8 WAR. Combine that with Drew's 8.9, and that is 10.7 WAR of production in one season from the two players the Braves got in that deal. That is a jaw dropping one season return on investment.
It sucks that the Braves had to lose such a great pitcher in Adam Wainwright in a trade, and in the end, the Cardinals have to be considered the winner because of the production that Wainwright has given the Cardinals already, in addition to his expected production once he comes back from injury. However, please save me the Braves got fleeced nonsense. It took Adam Wainwright and Jason Marquis until 2009 to match the total WAR that the Braves got out of J.D. Drew and Eli Marrero in one season. This was not nearly as bad a deal as many Braves think it was.
However, I still get frustrated when people talk about how fleeced the Braves got in this deal, because it isn't entirely true. I'm sure we all remember that the Braves got J.D. Drew and Eli Marrero from the Cardinals in that deal, and people hate the fact that Drew only played one season for the Braves. Why send away a potentially great pitcher to get a one year rental?
First off, we have to look at Wainwright's standing as a prospect at the time had dipped a bit at the time, and the Braves' system still had plenty of good pitching prospects in it (as it typically does). The Braves still had high hopes for guys such as Horacio Ramirez, Jose Capellan, Macay McBride, Anthony Lerew, Dan Meyer, and Kyle Davies. Unfortunately, none of those guys except Ramirez really made any contributions to the Braves, other than Meyer being a key part of the package that sent Tim Hudson to Atlanta. However, I think it is hard to blame John Schuerholz for dealing one of his good young pitchers when he had quite a few highly regarded arms behind Wainwright. The team was trying to win now, and Wainwright was the guy who good bring in a much needed bat to get the Braves back to playoffs. It is the way baseball goes, and I think it is likely that the Braves' current stable of young arms will be broken up a bit to provide the current big league club with some more offensive punch. Sometimes you have to deal those prospects (especially pitching prospects as they are so hit and miss. Did you see those names I listed above? My point exactly), and when you have plenty of others who you think will fill the void, you take the gamble.
The second part of this equation, and the most important part, is that the Braves hit a HOME FREAKING RUN on this deal in the 2004 season. J.D. Drew may have only played one season with the Braves, but they got about 2 seasons of production out of him, as Drew posted a stunning .305/.436/.569 slash line in 145 games played, while also managing to be 16.3 runs above average defensively in right field for that Braves team (quick tangent, but that Braves outfield was the best defensive outfield I've ever seen, and the numbers back me up on this. Drew was 16.3 runs above average, Andruw Jones was a ho hum 18.4 runs above average in center, and Charles Thomas was 9.5 runs above average in left. And people wondered how the Braves got production from a bunch of journeyman pitchers that year). According to FanGraphs WAR, J.D. Drew was the 5th best player in all of baseball that year, behind Barry Bonds, Randy Johnson, Adrian Beltre (his absurd 48 homer season), and Scott Rolen (Take a look at his player page on any baseball reference website and be prepared to be wowed. He was a terrific ball player in his prime). In fact, Drew was so good that he is the only player in the Chipper Jones era that has dislodged Chipper from his beloved 3 hole. Yes, he was that good.
The other forgotten factor of this deal was just how absurdly good Eli Marrero was in his one season with the Braves. He only got 280 plate appearances in his platoon role with Charles Thomas, but Marrero produced by far and away the best season of his career at the dish, hitting .320/.374/.520 for a ridiculous .382 wOBA from a really average hitter. His production was good enough for 1.8 WAR. Combine that with Drew's 8.9, and that is 10.7 WAR of production in one season from the two players the Braves got in that deal. That is a jaw dropping one season return on investment.
It sucks that the Braves had to lose such a great pitcher in Adam Wainwright in a trade, and in the end, the Cardinals have to be considered the winner because of the production that Wainwright has given the Cardinals already, in addition to his expected production once he comes back from injury. However, please save me the Braves got fleeced nonsense. It took Adam Wainwright and Jason Marquis until 2009 to match the total WAR that the Braves got out of J.D. Drew and Eli Marrero in one season. This was not nearly as bad a deal as many Braves think it was.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Mike Minor Shows Progress
Only one start, but it was much better than his first one this year. Minor got through 5 and 2/3rds innings this afternoon to help the Braves get another W in Pittsburgh, allowing 2 ERs, striking out 5, walking 2, while getting more ground ball outs than fly outs. This was a performance that is much more in line with Minor's minor league numbers, as he has always shown good command of the strike zone with an ability to miss bats. If he shows an affinity for ground balls like he did in this start, that will be even better for his future prospects.
After this start, I'm excited that Minor will have a chance to build on this performance and get another start next week. I think he is ready to pitch in the big leagues, but the Braves' pitching depth means his opportunities are limited for right now. However, when pitchers go down with injury like Hudson and Beachy, the Braves are one of the only teams in baseball that has an MLB ready pitcher (maybe even 2 or 3) to plug into the vacancy. It is great that they do, because the way the offense has regressed under Larry Parrish (see this short post from Capitol Avenue Club for some eye opening numbers from Braves' "hitters") means that the Braves pitchers will have to continue dealing in order to meet their goals for the season.
After this start, I'm excited that Minor will have a chance to build on this performance and get another start next week. I think he is ready to pitch in the big leagues, but the Braves' pitching depth means his opportunities are limited for right now. However, when pitchers go down with injury like Hudson and Beachy, the Braves are one of the only teams in baseball that has an MLB ready pitcher (maybe even 2 or 3) to plug into the vacancy. It is great that they do, because the way the offense has regressed under Larry Parrish (see this short post from Capitol Avenue Club for some eye opening numbers from Braves' "hitters") means that the Braves pitchers will have to continue dealing in order to meet their goals for the season.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
More on Dan Uggla's Slump
Just a quick tidbit I caught when looking more at Dan Uggla's struggles, after hearing that he was out of the lineup for the first time all season tonight. In his five years with the Marlins, Uggla produced almost 20 runs above average when facing an opposing pitchers fastball (96.5 runs above average total in 5 years). This year, he is already 4.4 runs below average against the fastball. This is an astonishing turn, and frankly one that I don't see continuing. People don't just forget how to hit fastballs when they turn 31, and I expect Uggla to produce against this pitch more in the future. And as I pointed out in my previous post about him, he could start by swinging at better fastballs (and any pitch in general). He's made a living killing fastballs in the past, and he should do it again. If he doesn't, well, the Braves will want their money back.
Sunday, May 22, 2011
Jonny Venters Enjoys Dealing
It has been rather absurd watching Jonny Venters pitch this year and how seemingly overmatched big league hitters are in trying to deal with him. Hitters have the misfortune of trying to square up a sinker that tails in to lefties, away from righties while also sinking like a stone. All the movement made me forget that it traveling 94+ on most occasions. He complements this outstanding offering with a plus slider, making him murder on left handers while making him merely torturous to right handers. To make my point, the league is slashing .107/.192/.135 against him, meaning that Venters has turned the National League into a below average hitting pitcher when he faces them.
And it all goes back to the sinker. Looking at Venters' batted ball numbers is something to behold. 62 balls have been put into play this year against Jonny, and a staggering 53 of them have been on the ground, producing a rather useful ground ball rate of 85.5% for the season. For comparisons sake, Venters led the league in ground ball rate last season at 68.4%. So as good as he was last year, he's stepped it up another notch or two. Hitters just can't elevate the ball against him, much less square it up. Only 3 batted balls have been classified as line drives off of Venters. Absurd.
In addition, Venters possesses a K rate above 8 and a BB/K ratio of 3.25 to 1, which is up from 2.38 last year. Being able to complement a ridiculous ground ball rate with a K rate of almost a batter an inning just isn't fair, and adding that to the fact that Venters' BB rate has been above average as well has just tilted the scales towards Venters even more than it was before. With numbers like this, he isn't just the best non-closer in the National League. He just might be the best reliever in the National League, period.
So, should he close? My answer to this is no, he should be kept exactly where he is. I'm a believer in Craig Kimbrel and think that his 4 blown saves have been partly attributable to some rotten luck. Kimbrel's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is actually lower than Venters' is, meaning that Kimbrel has been pretty damn good himself. He is striking out almost 14 per nine, his K/BB ratio is still over 3 to 1, and 52% of his batted balls have been on the ground as well. He's a quality closer.
I think Venters is better than Kimbrel at this point, but Kimbrel is still excellent, and I think Venters is more valuable to the team in the role he currently occupies. Because he isn't designated as the closer, Fredi Gonzalez freely uses him when he sees fit, which is either to pitch the eighth inning or to put out any fires that arise at any point during the game before the ninth inning. Basically, Gonzalez can use him in exclusively in situations that have the highest leverage, which is exactly when you want your best pitchers to be pitching. Being the closer doesn't always allow for that, as you are limited to pitching the 9th inning, which might come with a 3 run lead. However, in that same game with a 3 run lead in the ninth, there may have been a situation with runners on 2nd and 3rd and nobody out in the 7th. Wouldn't you rather use your best pitcher then?
Because the Braves have an excellent option in Kimbrel to close games, Fredi is free to use Venters in high leverage situations whenever they might arise. Ideally, these situations would include some ninth innings when he hasn't been used to that point, but baseball traditionalism won't allow for that, as somebody has to be designated the closer. As long as there are designated closers and as long as the Braves have an option as good as Kimbrel to be that guy, Venters should stay right where he should be, as the Braves will win more games that way.
And it all goes back to the sinker. Looking at Venters' batted ball numbers is something to behold. 62 balls have been put into play this year against Jonny, and a staggering 53 of them have been on the ground, producing a rather useful ground ball rate of 85.5% for the season. For comparisons sake, Venters led the league in ground ball rate last season at 68.4%. So as good as he was last year, he's stepped it up another notch or two. Hitters just can't elevate the ball against him, much less square it up. Only 3 batted balls have been classified as line drives off of Venters. Absurd.
In addition, Venters possesses a K rate above 8 and a BB/K ratio of 3.25 to 1, which is up from 2.38 last year. Being able to complement a ridiculous ground ball rate with a K rate of almost a batter an inning just isn't fair, and adding that to the fact that Venters' BB rate has been above average as well has just tilted the scales towards Venters even more than it was before. With numbers like this, he isn't just the best non-closer in the National League. He just might be the best reliever in the National League, period.
So, should he close? My answer to this is no, he should be kept exactly where he is. I'm a believer in Craig Kimbrel and think that his 4 blown saves have been partly attributable to some rotten luck. Kimbrel's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is actually lower than Venters' is, meaning that Kimbrel has been pretty damn good himself. He is striking out almost 14 per nine, his K/BB ratio is still over 3 to 1, and 52% of his batted balls have been on the ground as well. He's a quality closer.
I think Venters is better than Kimbrel at this point, but Kimbrel is still excellent, and I think Venters is more valuable to the team in the role he currently occupies. Because he isn't designated as the closer, Fredi Gonzalez freely uses him when he sees fit, which is either to pitch the eighth inning or to put out any fires that arise at any point during the game before the ninth inning. Basically, Gonzalez can use him in exclusively in situations that have the highest leverage, which is exactly when you want your best pitchers to be pitching. Being the closer doesn't always allow for that, as you are limited to pitching the 9th inning, which might come with a 3 run lead. However, in that same game with a 3 run lead in the ninth, there may have been a situation with runners on 2nd and 3rd and nobody out in the 7th. Wouldn't you rather use your best pitcher then?
Because the Braves have an excellent option in Kimbrel to close games, Fredi is free to use Venters in high leverage situations whenever they might arise. Ideally, these situations would include some ninth innings when he hasn't been used to that point, but baseball traditionalism won't allow for that, as somebody has to be designated the closer. As long as there are designated closers and as long as the Braves have an option as good as Kimbrel to be that guy, Venters should stay right where he should be, as the Braves will win more games that way.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Brian McCann is Really Good at Baseball
Although Ben Duronio over at Capitol Avenue Club has already posted a McCann article today, I'm posting one anyway because I thought of writing this article before he published his. And, probably more importantly, its fun to talk about Brian McCann's excellence, especially after a coming off the bench to hit 2 home runs and single handedly win a baseball game for the Braves.
So just how good is Brian McCann? Since becoming a full time big leaguer in 2006 at age 22 years old, McCann has produced exactly 24.1 WAR, or just over 4 WAR per season (including the current season that is only 1/4th old, the average will be closer to 4.5 per season once this season is complete, assuming he stays healthy). His career triple slash stands at .289/.359/.485, good enough for a .362 wOBA from a position that is often an offensive black hole in big league lineups. For some comparison, here are some active catchers' career triple slash lines:
Jorge Posada-.274/.376/.476, wOBA .368
Joe Mauer-.326/.406/.479, wOBA .381 (in case you've been living under a rock, Mauer is REALLY good when healthy)
Ivan Rodriguez- .296/.334/.465, wOBA .344
In my book out of these 3 guys, Rodriguez is a lock hall of famer, Mauer will be if he can stay healthy enough to play games, and Posada will be in the conversation for it. And Mac's number fit right in with those guys, being very comparable to Posada, better than Rodriguez, and a notch below Mauer's.
Now, for more fun, let's take a look a look at some Hall of Famers triple slash numbers (I'm including Mike Piazza in this because he will be one)-
Johnny Bench-.267/.342/.476, wOBA .361
Gary Carter-.262/.335/.439, wOBA .341
Mike Piazza- .308/.377/.545, wOBA .389
Carlton Fisk- .269/.341/.457, wOBA .354
Yogi Berra- .285/.350/482, wOBA .370
Roy Campanella- .276/.350/.500, wOBA .385
Does McCann's .289/.359/.485 and wOBA .362 look out of place there? In my eyes, not really. McCann's counting stats will need to build in order to compare with some of those guys (everyone of them but Campanella had more than 300 home runs, McCann stands currently at 116). There are still plenty of Hall of Fame voters who will give more weight to counting stats (HRs, RBIs, etc) rather than rate stats.
Because we have been comparing his stats to Hall of Famers, lets have some fun and project out the rest of McCann's career based on WAR. He is 27 years old this year, which is just entering his prime. First we have to look at his durability, which has been excellent in his career. His only 2 DL stints have been from an ankle injury suffered in a nasty home plate collision in 2006 and eye problems in 2009 that have been corrected by him hydrating better. If we use the 4.5 WAR average that he has established in his 5 full, completed big league seasons and assume, because he is in his prime and has been very durable, that he will play up to that level until he is 30 years old (the end of his statistical prime). That would be about 3 more WAR this year accumulated this year and 13.5 WAR for the 3 following seasons. Then, because he's getting older and catching can take its toll, lets assume his production drops every year by .5 WAR for the next 3 years, meaning 4, 3.5, and 3 for the 3 following seasons after 30. Then, we can say his body breaks down when he is 34, and his production drops to 2 WAR for the next 2 seasons and around 1 for a season after that before retiring after his age 36 season. Add it all up and that is 32 WAR for the next 9 years to add to his 25 WAR already accumulated. 57 WAR from the catchers spot would put him firmly in the Hall of Fame discussion, as only 9 guys have accumulated over 57 WAR at the catcher's position. A lot of things would need to go right to get to this number, but McCann's track record of durability and consistency will certainly help him if it continues (for the Braves' sake, I just knocked on wood)
Obviously, this doesn't mean that we can definitively say that Brian McCann is going to be a Hall of Famer, but baseball fans everywhere need to appreciate just how good this guy is. Of course, it will suit me just fine if he continues to stay healthy and to toil in relative (for a 5, soon to be 6 time All Star) obscurity down in Atlanta, as us Atlantans appreciate what we have, even if most other fans don't. He is a huge advantage for the Braves that they can pencil his name into the lineup every day, knowing they have a legitimate All Star to put in possibly the hardest position in the game to fill with a productive player. And he is Georgia born and raised. What more could you want from a franchise cornerstone?
So just how good is Brian McCann? Since becoming a full time big leaguer in 2006 at age 22 years old, McCann has produced exactly 24.1 WAR, or just over 4 WAR per season (including the current season that is only 1/4th old, the average will be closer to 4.5 per season once this season is complete, assuming he stays healthy). His career triple slash stands at .289/.359/.485, good enough for a .362 wOBA from a position that is often an offensive black hole in big league lineups. For some comparison, here are some active catchers' career triple slash lines:
Jorge Posada-.274/.376/.476, wOBA .368
Joe Mauer-.326/.406/.479, wOBA .381 (in case you've been living under a rock, Mauer is REALLY good when healthy)
Ivan Rodriguez- .296/.334/.465, wOBA .344
In my book out of these 3 guys, Rodriguez is a lock hall of famer, Mauer will be if he can stay healthy enough to play games, and Posada will be in the conversation for it. And Mac's number fit right in with those guys, being very comparable to Posada, better than Rodriguez, and a notch below Mauer's.
Now, for more fun, let's take a look a look at some Hall of Famers triple slash numbers (I'm including Mike Piazza in this because he will be one)-
Johnny Bench-.267/.342/.476, wOBA .361
Gary Carter-.262/.335/.439, wOBA .341
Mike Piazza- .308/.377/.545, wOBA .389
Carlton Fisk- .269/.341/.457, wOBA .354
Yogi Berra- .285/.350/482, wOBA .370
Roy Campanella- .276/.350/.500, wOBA .385
Does McCann's .289/.359/.485 and wOBA .362 look out of place there? In my eyes, not really. McCann's counting stats will need to build in order to compare with some of those guys (everyone of them but Campanella had more than 300 home runs, McCann stands currently at 116). There are still plenty of Hall of Fame voters who will give more weight to counting stats (HRs, RBIs, etc) rather than rate stats.
Because we have been comparing his stats to Hall of Famers, lets have some fun and project out the rest of McCann's career based on WAR. He is 27 years old this year, which is just entering his prime. First we have to look at his durability, which has been excellent in his career. His only 2 DL stints have been from an ankle injury suffered in a nasty home plate collision in 2006 and eye problems in 2009 that have been corrected by him hydrating better. If we use the 4.5 WAR average that he has established in his 5 full, completed big league seasons and assume, because he is in his prime and has been very durable, that he will play up to that level until he is 30 years old (the end of his statistical prime). That would be about 3 more WAR this year accumulated this year and 13.5 WAR for the 3 following seasons. Then, because he's getting older and catching can take its toll, lets assume his production drops every year by .5 WAR for the next 3 years, meaning 4, 3.5, and 3 for the 3 following seasons after 30. Then, we can say his body breaks down when he is 34, and his production drops to 2 WAR for the next 2 seasons and around 1 for a season after that before retiring after his age 36 season. Add it all up and that is 32 WAR for the next 9 years to add to his 25 WAR already accumulated. 57 WAR from the catchers spot would put him firmly in the Hall of Fame discussion, as only 9 guys have accumulated over 57 WAR at the catcher's position. A lot of things would need to go right to get to this number, but McCann's track record of durability and consistency will certainly help him if it continues (for the Braves' sake, I just knocked on wood)
Obviously, this doesn't mean that we can definitively say that Brian McCann is going to be a Hall of Famer, but baseball fans everywhere need to appreciate just how good this guy is. Of course, it will suit me just fine if he continues to stay healthy and to toil in relative (for a 5, soon to be 6 time All Star) obscurity down in Atlanta, as us Atlantans appreciate what we have, even if most other fans don't. He is a huge advantage for the Braves that they can pencil his name into the lineup every day, knowing they have a legitimate All Star to put in possibly the hardest position in the game to fill with a productive player. And he is Georgia born and raised. What more could you want from a franchise cornerstone?
Monday, May 16, 2011
Jair Doing Work
I doubt it will be the title of a Spike Lee joint, but Braves fans have absolutely taken notice of the work Jair Jurrjens has done since returning from the disabled list. Jair struggled last year, posting a 4.64 ERA while also seeing a decrease in ground ball rate and seeing his walk rate increase, albeit only slightly. Judging by his previous 2 years before 2010 and the injury problems he had last year, I was expecting a bit of a rebound from last year's numbers, providing nice value at the back end of the rotation. However, I wasn't expecting anything close to his 1.66 ERA. He has been a rock in the rotation ever since missing his first couple of starts of the year.
But what has changed for Jair? First thing is he has been a bit lucky, although not astronomically so. He has benefited from an 81.7% strand rate through his first 6 starts, a rate that is unsustainable. His career rate is 73.9%, which means there should be some correction to the mean in that regard. A few more base runners will end up scoring in his starts. BABIP against him stands at .263, which isn't too far off his career .282, but some regression should be expected there as well.
However, there is some other signs that point to Jair being a much better pitcher this year. The main thing that I was looking for in Jair this year was an improvement in his ground ball rate after he posted a career low 39.9% GB rate last year. Thankfully for Braves fans, Jair has delivered in a big way in this regard, as he has posted a 49.6% ground ball rate through his first 6 starts. Anything above 50% is very good, so the fact he is right around that threshold is a great sign. Apparently, credit can go to Jonny Venters for showing Jair a new grip for his fastball, causing more sinking action on it rather than running. Great stuff on this front, and an excellent sign for the future.
The next reason, and perhaps the more surprising one, is that Jurrjens' command has been awesome this year. Jair is striking out 5.4 batters per 9 innings, a number that doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. However, his BB rate stands at a microscopic 1.45 per 9 innings, leading his K/BB ratio to be over 3.5 to 1, an outstanding ratio. The fact that Jair has been around the plate the plate so much has also led to an added benefit, in that batters are swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone. Over 33% of his pitches outside the strike zone have been swung at, which is really going to help Jair get outs if he can keep that up. As long as he stays around the plate, more people are going to go up hacking, meaning Jair should be able to get them to chase, just as he has done so far. In the end though, less walks means less base runners, always a good thing in preventing runs.
The sample size is very small to this point, but there have been some very positive developments in Jair Jurrjens' arsenal this season. If he can keep up his awesome K/BB ratio and keep the ball on the ground as much as he has, it is going to be a great season for him all the way around. He has looked fantastic so far this year, and if that continues, the Braves will be that much closer to a 2nd straight playoff appearance.
But what has changed for Jair? First thing is he has been a bit lucky, although not astronomically so. He has benefited from an 81.7% strand rate through his first 6 starts, a rate that is unsustainable. His career rate is 73.9%, which means there should be some correction to the mean in that regard. A few more base runners will end up scoring in his starts. BABIP against him stands at .263, which isn't too far off his career .282, but some regression should be expected there as well.
However, there is some other signs that point to Jair being a much better pitcher this year. The main thing that I was looking for in Jair this year was an improvement in his ground ball rate after he posted a career low 39.9% GB rate last year. Thankfully for Braves fans, Jair has delivered in a big way in this regard, as he has posted a 49.6% ground ball rate through his first 6 starts. Anything above 50% is very good, so the fact he is right around that threshold is a great sign. Apparently, credit can go to Jonny Venters for showing Jair a new grip for his fastball, causing more sinking action on it rather than running. Great stuff on this front, and an excellent sign for the future.
The next reason, and perhaps the more surprising one, is that Jurrjens' command has been awesome this year. Jair is striking out 5.4 batters per 9 innings, a number that doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. However, his BB rate stands at a microscopic 1.45 per 9 innings, leading his K/BB ratio to be over 3.5 to 1, an outstanding ratio. The fact that Jair has been around the plate the plate so much has also led to an added benefit, in that batters are swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone. Over 33% of his pitches outside the strike zone have been swung at, which is really going to help Jair get outs if he can keep that up. As long as he stays around the plate, more people are going to go up hacking, meaning Jair should be able to get them to chase, just as he has done so far. In the end though, less walks means less base runners, always a good thing in preventing runs.
The sample size is very small to this point, but there have been some very positive developments in Jair Jurrjens' arsenal this season. If he can keep up his awesome K/BB ratio and keep the ball on the ground as much as he has, it is going to be a great season for him all the way around. He has looked fantastic so far this year, and if that continues, the Braves will be that much closer to a 2nd straight playoff appearance.
Sunday, May 15, 2011
What Can the Hawks Do to Improve?
Why am I trying to tackle this question? I don't know, I guess I'm bored on a weekend and want to challenge myself. The Atlanta Hawks capped an abysmal regular season in which they were outscored by almost a full point per game by their opponents by showing signs of competency by beating the Orlando Magic and taking 2 from the top seeded Chicago Bulls, despite getting housed in their own building in an elimination game. After watching the team in the post season, I can't help but feel a bit more optimistic about these Hawks, and there is really only one reason for that. His name is Jeff Teague. I have asked on a couple of occasions for him to get more playing time, as he really is the only young, cheap asset these Hawks have at this point, and considering the franchise was stuck in the mud this entire season, why not throw him out there and see what you've got? Best case, you find out he can play. Worst case, you find out he can't play, and you work on addressing the point guard spot in the offseason. However, both of those cases are better than not playing him, which means you still don't know for sure if you need to address the point guard spot, probably losing an offseason to address the issue.
However, because of an unfortunate injury to Kirk Hinrich, Larry Drew had no choice but to play Jeff Teague against the reigning NBA MVP, Derrick Rose. And thankfully for the Hawks, he was a revelation. Teague has shown signs in his second year of being a good player, significantly improving his shooting percentage this season while also providing moments of being a real defensive pest, a welcome sign after years of matador defense from Mike Bibby. Teague was nothing short of sensational for the Hawks in the series, making Rose work for everything he got on both ends of the floor. He provided a steady hand (6.8 TO rate in the playoffs, an outstanding number), had a spectacular array of finishes in the lane (both with floaters and at the rim), and provided a consistent threat attacking the rim from the guard spot, something the Hawks haven't had in years. Overall, his playoff PER was 17.46, and that was down from almost 19 after game 5 of the Bulls series (remember, he sprained his wrist early in game 6, rendering him pretty much ineffective from that point). For the first time in years, I'm truly excited about what the Hawks have at point guard next year, and if Teague plays anywhere approaching that level next year, the Hawks will be 2-3 wins better in the regular season just because of it, as point guard was a black hole for 3 quarters of the year this year.
Hawks supporters can also take solace in Al Horford's play this season, which was capped with him being named 3rd team All NBA on Thursday. Al was poor in the Bulls series, getting outplayed for the most part by Joakim Noah, but he had a terrific season this year. Al came to the year with an improved mid-range jumper. Al shot 53% from 16-23 feet this season, tops in the league among qualified players. That is an awesome number, and the development of Teague could get him more open looks from that range next year. Al also provided his usual outstanding defense and solid defensive rebounding. To show just how good he was this year, he increased his usage rate while also improving his field goal percentage, assist rate, and decreasing his turnover rate. Outstanding. Next year, I will be looking to see how he improves his back to the basket game, as it was improved but still mechanical this year. He's still just 24, and he has come back improved every season, so I expect more progress next year. But if he continues to be just this, he's still a stud.
Looking ahead to 2011-2012 (whenever the season starts), the Hawks have an interesting lineup they can turn to starting games of players under contract for next year. This would consist of Teauge at point, Hinrich at SG, Johnson at SF, Smith at PF, and Horford at C. The reason this lineup really interests me is the potential for the defense to be much improved next season. The Hawks weren't terrible defensively last year, but they weren't great either. Most of this had to do with terrible perimeter defense, but this lineup has that covered. Teague made Derrick Rose work hard for what he got on offense in the playoffs, and if he is capable of that, he should be able to competently defend NBA point guards. That's an improvement. Secondly, this allows Hinrich to defend where he is best, which is as a wing defender. Despite being a bit undersized, Hinrich really does a good job of getting into wing players and dictating where he wants them to go. He will be an improvement in that regard for the Hawks to. Joe Johnson can take who ever the weakest wing player is, which he should be able to handle decently enough. Lastly, Horford and Smith won't have as much responsibility, which should allow them to improve their overall defense, not having as many responsibilities in making up for their teammates' defensive incompetencies. This is the lineup I want to see next year, as all of these guys should defend better together as a group. Plus, they are all at least decent passers, which could lead to crisper offense.
Going beyond this, however, is where things get interesting. The Hawks have around 66 million or so committed to 7 players next year. The luxury tax line stood at about 70 million last year, and the uncertainty regarding the CBA really throws things up in the air as to what the Hawks will be able to do next year. In addition to the five mentioned above, the only ones under contract for next year are Marvin Williams and Zaza Pachulia. Let's start with Marvin, who I'm thinking is going to be shopped liberally this offseason. He is never going to live up to his number 2 overall draft pick, and his $8 million salary is a hinderance on a team with no financial flexibility. He hasn't a bad player, but the way he played this post season is really going to hurt his trade value, as he was non existent. How many teams are going to pay him $8 million and give up something of value to do it? It is going to be up to Rick Sund to find one. If they can get a 4th big man or a guy who can score points off the bench, Sund may pull the trigger.
Zaza should be sticking around, as he is a proven back up big man who can bang down low and get some rebounds. He can allow Horford to slide over to the 4 when he is in or come in directly for him, which is good because it means he can play with either of the 2 starting bigs effectively. He is a good fit. In addition to him, I expect that Damien Wilkins will be resigned, which won't be a bad thing. He is a servicable defender who can get a shot at times, and he probably won't cost more than the minimum salary. With limited financial flexibility, a servicable rotation player who costs the minimum is valuable. For the same reason, I think Jason Collins will be resigned as well to be the third center, as he won't cost a lot. Assuming Pape Sy and Magnum Rolle will be back (they wouldn't have signed Rolle 3 days before the season ended if they weren't bringing him back, and they invested a 2nd round pick in Sy, so they will at least give him one more year).
So where do they go from here? It will be imperative for the Hawks to grab a contributor in the 2nd round of the draft, as their limited cap space will suffocate most options. Players that could be available in the 2nd round that could help are guys like Jordan Williams (terrific rebounder), Marshon Brooks (scoring machine from Providence), and Jon Leuer (stretch 4 who really knows how to play). This draft lacks elite talent, but it is deep, so there should be some talent there in the second round. Also, if the Hawks still have access to any salary cap exceptions (a question mark with a new CBA coming), they will have to invest wisely on multiple players most likely, perhaps even rolling the dice on a player who was once productive to find lightning in a bottle (Michael Redd?).
Last thing that needs to be done is something the Hawks have continually ignored despite their financial limitations. And that task is scour the D-League. One look at the Golden State Warriors the last couple of years shows everything you need to know. Over the past few years, the Warriors have found C.J. Watson, Reggie Williams, and Anthony Tolliver in the D-League. The Hawks need to find a guy like this, as they will be league minimum players in their first year. Atlanta needs all of those guys they can get.
It's not going to be easy, but you get the idea of what needs to get done for the Hawks to improve. An upgrade in scouting would be the first order of business, as this franchise hasn't found a diamond in the rough in years (ever?). If you are going to over pay to keep you own free agents, this is something that has to improve if you want to compete and advance in the NBA playoffs. Rick Sund, your work is cut out for you. Be creative, make something happen, because there are players out there. It is up to you to find them.
However, because of an unfortunate injury to Kirk Hinrich, Larry Drew had no choice but to play Jeff Teague against the reigning NBA MVP, Derrick Rose. And thankfully for the Hawks, he was a revelation. Teague has shown signs in his second year of being a good player, significantly improving his shooting percentage this season while also providing moments of being a real defensive pest, a welcome sign after years of matador defense from Mike Bibby. Teague was nothing short of sensational for the Hawks in the series, making Rose work for everything he got on both ends of the floor. He provided a steady hand (6.8 TO rate in the playoffs, an outstanding number), had a spectacular array of finishes in the lane (both with floaters and at the rim), and provided a consistent threat attacking the rim from the guard spot, something the Hawks haven't had in years. Overall, his playoff PER was 17.46, and that was down from almost 19 after game 5 of the Bulls series (remember, he sprained his wrist early in game 6, rendering him pretty much ineffective from that point). For the first time in years, I'm truly excited about what the Hawks have at point guard next year, and if Teague plays anywhere approaching that level next year, the Hawks will be 2-3 wins better in the regular season just because of it, as point guard was a black hole for 3 quarters of the year this year.
Hawks supporters can also take solace in Al Horford's play this season, which was capped with him being named 3rd team All NBA on Thursday. Al was poor in the Bulls series, getting outplayed for the most part by Joakim Noah, but he had a terrific season this year. Al came to the year with an improved mid-range jumper. Al shot 53% from 16-23 feet this season, tops in the league among qualified players. That is an awesome number, and the development of Teague could get him more open looks from that range next year. Al also provided his usual outstanding defense and solid defensive rebounding. To show just how good he was this year, he increased his usage rate while also improving his field goal percentage, assist rate, and decreasing his turnover rate. Outstanding. Next year, I will be looking to see how he improves his back to the basket game, as it was improved but still mechanical this year. He's still just 24, and he has come back improved every season, so I expect more progress next year. But if he continues to be just this, he's still a stud.
Looking ahead to 2011-2012 (whenever the season starts), the Hawks have an interesting lineup they can turn to starting games of players under contract for next year. This would consist of Teauge at point, Hinrich at SG, Johnson at SF, Smith at PF, and Horford at C. The reason this lineup really interests me is the potential for the defense to be much improved next season. The Hawks weren't terrible defensively last year, but they weren't great either. Most of this had to do with terrible perimeter defense, but this lineup has that covered. Teague made Derrick Rose work hard for what he got on offense in the playoffs, and if he is capable of that, he should be able to competently defend NBA point guards. That's an improvement. Secondly, this allows Hinrich to defend where he is best, which is as a wing defender. Despite being a bit undersized, Hinrich really does a good job of getting into wing players and dictating where he wants them to go. He will be an improvement in that regard for the Hawks to. Joe Johnson can take who ever the weakest wing player is, which he should be able to handle decently enough. Lastly, Horford and Smith won't have as much responsibility, which should allow them to improve their overall defense, not having as many responsibilities in making up for their teammates' defensive incompetencies. This is the lineup I want to see next year, as all of these guys should defend better together as a group. Plus, they are all at least decent passers, which could lead to crisper offense.
Going beyond this, however, is where things get interesting. The Hawks have around 66 million or so committed to 7 players next year. The luxury tax line stood at about 70 million last year, and the uncertainty regarding the CBA really throws things up in the air as to what the Hawks will be able to do next year. In addition to the five mentioned above, the only ones under contract for next year are Marvin Williams and Zaza Pachulia. Let's start with Marvin, who I'm thinking is going to be shopped liberally this offseason. He is never going to live up to his number 2 overall draft pick, and his $8 million salary is a hinderance on a team with no financial flexibility. He hasn't a bad player, but the way he played this post season is really going to hurt his trade value, as he was non existent. How many teams are going to pay him $8 million and give up something of value to do it? It is going to be up to Rick Sund to find one. If they can get a 4th big man or a guy who can score points off the bench, Sund may pull the trigger.
Zaza should be sticking around, as he is a proven back up big man who can bang down low and get some rebounds. He can allow Horford to slide over to the 4 when he is in or come in directly for him, which is good because it means he can play with either of the 2 starting bigs effectively. He is a good fit. In addition to him, I expect that Damien Wilkins will be resigned, which won't be a bad thing. He is a servicable defender who can get a shot at times, and he probably won't cost more than the minimum salary. With limited financial flexibility, a servicable rotation player who costs the minimum is valuable. For the same reason, I think Jason Collins will be resigned as well to be the third center, as he won't cost a lot. Assuming Pape Sy and Magnum Rolle will be back (they wouldn't have signed Rolle 3 days before the season ended if they weren't bringing him back, and they invested a 2nd round pick in Sy, so they will at least give him one more year).
So where do they go from here? It will be imperative for the Hawks to grab a contributor in the 2nd round of the draft, as their limited cap space will suffocate most options. Players that could be available in the 2nd round that could help are guys like Jordan Williams (terrific rebounder), Marshon Brooks (scoring machine from Providence), and Jon Leuer (stretch 4 who really knows how to play). This draft lacks elite talent, but it is deep, so there should be some talent there in the second round. Also, if the Hawks still have access to any salary cap exceptions (a question mark with a new CBA coming), they will have to invest wisely on multiple players most likely, perhaps even rolling the dice on a player who was once productive to find lightning in a bottle (Michael Redd?).
Last thing that needs to be done is something the Hawks have continually ignored despite their financial limitations. And that task is scour the D-League. One look at the Golden State Warriors the last couple of years shows everything you need to know. Over the past few years, the Warriors have found C.J. Watson, Reggie Williams, and Anthony Tolliver in the D-League. The Hawks need to find a guy like this, as they will be league minimum players in their first year. Atlanta needs all of those guys they can get.
It's not going to be easy, but you get the idea of what needs to get done for the Hawks to improve. An upgrade in scouting would be the first order of business, as this franchise hasn't found a diamond in the rough in years (ever?). If you are going to over pay to keep you own free agents, this is something that has to improve if you want to compete and advance in the NBA playoffs. Rick Sund, your work is cut out for you. Be creative, make something happen, because there are players out there. It is up to you to find them.
Saturday, May 14, 2011
The Struggles of Young Freddie Freeman
It has been an up and down rookie season for Freddie Freeman, who started off the season ice cold, then went on a tear for about 2 weeks before falling back into the doldrums he is currently in right now. Truth be told, Freddie has struggled when adjusting to a new level at every stop in his big league career, so this really shouldn't be taken as a surprise, considering he is only 21 years old as well. He has a nice approach at the plate and seems to be willing to take a pitch, evidenced by an excellent 12.2% BB rate. In addition, his 22.8% K rate isn't awful for a 21 year old, as we should figure on that improving a bit as he gets a bit older. However, when looking at his plate discipline statistics, he really hasn't been disciplined enough at the plate.
What really jumped out at me when checking out these stats was that only 37.4% of the pitches Freddie has seen have been pitched inside the strike zone this season, as compared to a major league average of 46.6%. This is a good thing, as it allows Freddie to be patient and wait for his pitch, and it should allow him to work counts in his favor, which he has at times this year. However, despite his 12.2% BB rate, he has been overly aggressive at the plate this year, as he has swung at 32.9% of the pitches he sees outside the strike zone, compared to a major league average of 28.6%. On these pitches he swings at outside the strike zone, he makes contact at an above average rate, leading me to believe that the contact he is making is not very good contact. His 16.2 percent line drive rate backs that assumption up.
I would imagine the jump from AAA to the majors is the most difficult one for a ball player to make, and it won't be any different for Freddie Freeman. He is going to learn, we just don't know how long it will take. Despite being pretty patient and taking his walks this year, Freddie is going to have to swing at better pitches when he does decide to offer at them. I'm sure its difficult, as his desire to prove himself as a rookie is probably weighing on him, and pitchers are going just out of the strike zone to get him out. Freddie's biggest adjustment to date will be bringing those pitches into the strike zone by taking even more pitches, as long as they continue to nibble. And if they continue to nibble, take a walk. Not making an out as a very good thing in the grand scheme of things. Once that adjustment is made, he can start being more aggressive on the pitches he wants, rather than the ones the opposing pitcher wants.
What really jumped out at me when checking out these stats was that only 37.4% of the pitches Freddie has seen have been pitched inside the strike zone this season, as compared to a major league average of 46.6%. This is a good thing, as it allows Freddie to be patient and wait for his pitch, and it should allow him to work counts in his favor, which he has at times this year. However, despite his 12.2% BB rate, he has been overly aggressive at the plate this year, as he has swung at 32.9% of the pitches he sees outside the strike zone, compared to a major league average of 28.6%. On these pitches he swings at outside the strike zone, he makes contact at an above average rate, leading me to believe that the contact he is making is not very good contact. His 16.2 percent line drive rate backs that assumption up.
I would imagine the jump from AAA to the majors is the most difficult one for a ball player to make, and it won't be any different for Freddie Freeman. He is going to learn, we just don't know how long it will take. Despite being pretty patient and taking his walks this year, Freddie is going to have to swing at better pitches when he does decide to offer at them. I'm sure its difficult, as his desire to prove himself as a rookie is probably weighing on him, and pitchers are going just out of the strike zone to get him out. Freddie's biggest adjustment to date will be bringing those pitches into the strike zone by taking even more pitches, as long as they continue to nibble. And if they continue to nibble, take a walk. Not making an out as a very good thing in the grand scheme of things. Once that adjustment is made, he can start being more aggressive on the pitches he wants, rather than the ones the opposing pitcher wants.
Friday, May 13, 2011
The Sacrifice Bunting with Position Players and Stupid Managerial Decisions Have to Stop
The game is still in progress, but I'm extremely unhappy right now, as the Braves have willingly given away (tried to, anyway) four outs in this game against arguably the best team in the National League. Lets make the best pitching staff in the National League record 4 less outs. Awesome, great strategy. Lets also give Shane Victorino 4 strikes to get a hit. Oh wait, sorry, that wasn't Fredi Gonzalez' fault. Keep it moving, nothing to see here....
Anyway to prove my point, lets look at the stat Win Probability Added from this game to help me prove my point. This stat measures the percentage that a team's probability of winning the game changes based on the events that occurred during the game. On the 3 sacrifice bunts that were successfully turned into outs by the Phillies (one was booted rather hilariously by Cole Hamels), the total win probability added of those 3 bunts was -.047. Basically, the Braves decreased their chances of winning by almost 5 percent by giving away those 3 outs, and I have a feeling it would have been more than 5% if Hamels had recorded an out like he should have on McLouth's first sacrifice attempt.
The most egregious of these bunts was Joe Mather's bunt with a runner on first and nobody out, with the Braves trailing by a run in the bottom of the 7th. Mather sacrificed himself, and decreased the Braves chances of winning by .041 in the process, or 4.1%. Because when you are down by a run, scoring one run only ties the game. Duh. With 2 more innings to play, I'm trying to score as many runs as possible to increase my chances of, you know, WINNING the game. I like winning the game, not tying it. And Fredi Gonzalez should too.
Which brings me to another decision that grinds my gears. Why the hell is Christian Martinez hitting with nobody outs in the fifth with runners on 2nd and 3rd, down by 2 runs in the fifth inning? I understand that Martinez pitched brilliantly tonight, and I also understand that he got a hit, but you really want to use a player with zero major league hits in a high leverage situation? About 10% of at bats in a game are considered to be high leverage situations. This was one of them, as a stat called leverage index tells us. Average leverage index is set at 1, and anything above 1.5 is considered to be high leverage. Martinez's at bat registered a leverage index of 2.37 (10% of game situations/at-bats register above 2 to give you some context). I know he got a hit, but the process must be better, as baseball is a game that has highly variable results in small sample sizes. We must pay attention to the process as opposed to the results, as that is what wins out long term. And Fredi Gonzalez failed on multiple levels tonight, and that is not good enough.
Anyway to prove my point, lets look at the stat Win Probability Added from this game to help me prove my point. This stat measures the percentage that a team's probability of winning the game changes based on the events that occurred during the game. On the 3 sacrifice bunts that were successfully turned into outs by the Phillies (one was booted rather hilariously by Cole Hamels), the total win probability added of those 3 bunts was -.047. Basically, the Braves decreased their chances of winning by almost 5 percent by giving away those 3 outs, and I have a feeling it would have been more than 5% if Hamels had recorded an out like he should have on McLouth's first sacrifice attempt.
The most egregious of these bunts was Joe Mather's bunt with a runner on first and nobody out, with the Braves trailing by a run in the bottom of the 7th. Mather sacrificed himself, and decreased the Braves chances of winning by .041 in the process, or 4.1%. Because when you are down by a run, scoring one run only ties the game. Duh. With 2 more innings to play, I'm trying to score as many runs as possible to increase my chances of, you know, WINNING the game. I like winning the game, not tying it. And Fredi Gonzalez should too.
Which brings me to another decision that grinds my gears. Why the hell is Christian Martinez hitting with nobody outs in the fifth with runners on 2nd and 3rd, down by 2 runs in the fifth inning? I understand that Martinez pitched brilliantly tonight, and I also understand that he got a hit, but you really want to use a player with zero major league hits in a high leverage situation? About 10% of at bats in a game are considered to be high leverage situations. This was one of them, as a stat called leverage index tells us. Average leverage index is set at 1, and anything above 1.5 is considered to be high leverage. Martinez's at bat registered a leverage index of 2.37 (10% of game situations/at-bats register above 2 to give you some context). I know he got a hit, but the process must be better, as baseball is a game that has highly variable results in small sample sizes. We must pay attention to the process as opposed to the results, as that is what wins out long term. And Fredi Gonzalez failed on multiple levels tonight, and that is not good enough.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Dan Uggla's Struggles
With Dan Uggla continuing to struggle (last night's mammoth 3 run homer not included of course), its time to take a look at what might be causing it. With early season struggles, the first thing I generally glance at is BABIP, and Dan's stands at .220 right now. With a career .298 BABIP, you could point to this as being the primary cause .208/.260/.396 triple slash line. We should expect him to regress to the mean a bit in this category, which will cause his batting average to go up some as more hits start to find holes rather than gloves. However, there are more concerning problems regarding Uggla's hitting this year.
The main problem with Dan this year is that he is swinging so much more than he used to. His walk rate stands at 6.5% this year, which is a far cry from the 11.6%+ walk rates he had posted each of the last 3 years. This is not a good sign, as one of Uggla's best attributes as a hitter in the past was his package of plate discipline and power. When you become a hitter with power and no plate discipline, you turn into somebody like Alex Gonzalez, becoming a hitter prone to long stretches of futility in between power surges. Unfortunately for Dan, that kind of approach can't be tolerated like Gonzalez's is, as he doesn't bring nearly the defensive value that Gonzalez does.
Looking further into the numbers, you find out exactly what you would expect from a hitter who hasn't walked much, and that is he is swinging way to much. Uggla is swinging at 27.7% of pitches out of the strike zone and at 70.4 % of pitches inside the strike zone. His career numbers in those categories are 21.4% and 66% respectively. However, he is making contact on about the same amount of pitches as he usually does, so we have to look now at his batted ball percentages to see where his new free swinging approach is affecting him. Uggla's ground ball/fly ball ratio this season is 1.09 to 1, while his career rate stands at .83 to 1. His ground ball rate has spiked to 43.5% from a career 37.8%, and his line drive rate is down to 16.5% from 17.8 last year.
What these numbers tell me is that Uggla's new approach is causing him to make weaker contact when he does make contact. Swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone is something that will obviously cause that, which is something that we saw for many years when Jeff Francouer was the Braves' everyday right fielder. Uggla could be pressing at this point to impress his new team and fans, and it quite possibly is causing him to be impatient and chase to many pitches out of the zone. Whatever his causing it, in order to get back to his career norms, he must revert back to his old, more patient approach at the plate. If he starts being more selective, his numbers should revert closer to his career norms, as swinging at better pitches means more solid contact. Only then will the Braves enjoy what they paid $62 million for, which is a slugging right handed second baseman.
The main problem with Dan this year is that he is swinging so much more than he used to. His walk rate stands at 6.5% this year, which is a far cry from the 11.6%+ walk rates he had posted each of the last 3 years. This is not a good sign, as one of Uggla's best attributes as a hitter in the past was his package of plate discipline and power. When you become a hitter with power and no plate discipline, you turn into somebody like Alex Gonzalez, becoming a hitter prone to long stretches of futility in between power surges. Unfortunately for Dan, that kind of approach can't be tolerated like Gonzalez's is, as he doesn't bring nearly the defensive value that Gonzalez does.
Looking further into the numbers, you find out exactly what you would expect from a hitter who hasn't walked much, and that is he is swinging way to much. Uggla is swinging at 27.7% of pitches out of the strike zone and at 70.4 % of pitches inside the strike zone. His career numbers in those categories are 21.4% and 66% respectively. However, he is making contact on about the same amount of pitches as he usually does, so we have to look now at his batted ball percentages to see where his new free swinging approach is affecting him. Uggla's ground ball/fly ball ratio this season is 1.09 to 1, while his career rate stands at .83 to 1. His ground ball rate has spiked to 43.5% from a career 37.8%, and his line drive rate is down to 16.5% from 17.8 last year.
What these numbers tell me is that Uggla's new approach is causing him to make weaker contact when he does make contact. Swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone is something that will obviously cause that, which is something that we saw for many years when Jeff Francouer was the Braves' everyday right fielder. Uggla could be pressing at this point to impress his new team and fans, and it quite possibly is causing him to be impatient and chase to many pitches out of the zone. Whatever his causing it, in order to get back to his career norms, he must revert back to his old, more patient approach at the plate. If he starts being more selective, his numbers should revert closer to his career norms, as swinging at better pitches means more solid contact. Only then will the Braves enjoy what they paid $62 million for, which is a slugging right handed second baseman.
Sunday, May 1, 2011
Braves vs. Cardinals Series Recap
After a couple of days of distraction and controversy with Roger McDowell's problems and Derek Lowe's DUI, the Braves struggled in their series with the Cardinals, but managed to scratch out a victory in the series finale on a Brooks Conrad walk off single. Each of the games were competitive, but the Cardinals pulled the first two games out in their final at bat, with the Braves returning the favor this afternoon, with the Braves taking advantage of 2 Cardinals errors (by my count, the 6th and 7th errors committed by Braves' opponents all year) to score 3 unearned runs in the game. The Braves hitters still aren't really in a groove, with the team line drive percentage standing at just 16 %, their groundball percentage is 2nd highest in the majors, and their infield fly ball percentage is around 12%. None of those numbers are good, and the Braves' hitters will need to square up more balls in order to score more runs. Will it happen? Only time will tell, but I would start with being more patient at the plate. It hasn't been awful, but considering how good they were at taking walks last year, I believe the Braves are capable of that. They should be able to square some more balls up from there. However, things don't get any easier hitting wise next week, as they will face Gallardo, Greinke, and at least 2 Phillie aces in the next 7 games. But that's for another time, so let's have a look back at the weekend.
Brandon Beachy- Another fantastic start from Brandon on Saturday, going 7+ innings with 2 ERs, 1 BB, and 5 strikeouts. Slipped up a bit in the 8th inning when he issued his first walk, but if his offense had scored a few more runs for him, it wouldn't have been an issue. Fredi Gonzalez will take 7+ innings of 2 run baseball every time, and I will as well. His strikeout to walk ratio now stands at 36 to 10, which is outstanding any pitcher, much less a rookie with supposedly average stuff. He seems to be an Atlanta to stay, and if he keeps these peripheral stats going in the way they are, he will be here for a long time.
Nate McLouth- Was on base 6 more times this weekend, with 3 hits and 3 walks, and he also hit his first home run of the season on Friday. Needs to hit for more power than he is right now, but it is hard to complain after last season when his OBP stands at .345. Its not a huge number, but above the big league average, and a far cry from his puny numbers last year.
Brooks Conrad- Big hit for Brooks today, getting his 2nd pinch hit of the season and winning the game today. Braves had lost a bunch of 1 run games in a row, so I'm sure it will be good for their collective psyches to get a one run, last at bat win today. Brooks will need to get some knocks here and there to justify his roster spot (he hasn't played a defensive inning all year), so this was a step in the right direction for him.
Goats:
Craig Kimbrel-He struggled in his 2 outings this weekend that both led directly to Braves' losses, giving up a run in each game. He didn't walk a batter in either game, so that is a plus, and leads me to believe that this will be more of a bump in the road rather than a long term concern. In both of his blown saves and his 1 loss, the leadoff man got on each time. Watch out for that in the future, as he doesn't hold runners very well and hardly ever gets ground balls, so its very important for him to get the leadoff man.
Freddie Freeman- Nary a hit in the series for the young first baseman, and he appears to have hit the skids again. Got the day off today in favor of Joe Mather against a tough lefty in Jaime Garcia, and hopefully that will give him a chance to make some adjustments and come out hitting against the Brew Crew.
Derek Lowe-Not a good outing in his first game pitching since getting a DUI. Still struck out 5 batters in 5 innings, which is good, but he started slow and put the Braves in a hole early, one which they eventually dug out of. A week to forget for Mr. Lowe.
Cory Gearrin- Faced adversity for the first time this season in the majors, and things didn't go very well, giving up a 2 run double to the punchless Nick Punto in extra innings on Friday, and blowing a one run lead on Sunday. I like his stuff, as he can miss bats and most of the balls in play against him have been on the ground, but he will have to perform in higher leverage situations to gain the full trust of Fredi Gonzalez.
What to Watch For:
The Brewers come to Atlanta for a 4 game set, and the Braves will want to exact some revenge on them for taking 3 out of four in their previous series. There are a couple of things to keep an eye on. First, Milwaukee hitters haven't been the most patient this year, so Braves pitchers will want to make sure they don't give Milwaukee any extra base runners if they don't have too. Secondly, Milwaukee has some easy outs in the lineup. Yuniesky Betancourt, Carlos Gomez, and Mark Kotsay (at least on Monday, as Corey Hart will be activated Tuesday reportedly) are terrible hitters, and allowing them to get on base will really compound things when their really good hitters (Braun, Fielder, Weeks) get to the plate. Betancourt gave the Braves some problems in Milwaukee, and a pitching staff as good as the Braves' staff should have no problems with getting him out. Bad hitters need to be forced into making outs, and doing so will help the Braves tremendously the next 4 days.
Brandon Beachy- Another fantastic start from Brandon on Saturday, going 7+ innings with 2 ERs, 1 BB, and 5 strikeouts. Slipped up a bit in the 8th inning when he issued his first walk, but if his offense had scored a few more runs for him, it wouldn't have been an issue. Fredi Gonzalez will take 7+ innings of 2 run baseball every time, and I will as well. His strikeout to walk ratio now stands at 36 to 10, which is outstanding any pitcher, much less a rookie with supposedly average stuff. He seems to be an Atlanta to stay, and if he keeps these peripheral stats going in the way they are, he will be here for a long time.
Nate McLouth- Was on base 6 more times this weekend, with 3 hits and 3 walks, and he also hit his first home run of the season on Friday. Needs to hit for more power than he is right now, but it is hard to complain after last season when his OBP stands at .345. Its not a huge number, but above the big league average, and a far cry from his puny numbers last year.
Brooks Conrad- Big hit for Brooks today, getting his 2nd pinch hit of the season and winning the game today. Braves had lost a bunch of 1 run games in a row, so I'm sure it will be good for their collective psyches to get a one run, last at bat win today. Brooks will need to get some knocks here and there to justify his roster spot (he hasn't played a defensive inning all year), so this was a step in the right direction for him.
Goats:
Craig Kimbrel-He struggled in his 2 outings this weekend that both led directly to Braves' losses, giving up a run in each game. He didn't walk a batter in either game, so that is a plus, and leads me to believe that this will be more of a bump in the road rather than a long term concern. In both of his blown saves and his 1 loss, the leadoff man got on each time. Watch out for that in the future, as he doesn't hold runners very well and hardly ever gets ground balls, so its very important for him to get the leadoff man.
Freddie Freeman- Nary a hit in the series for the young first baseman, and he appears to have hit the skids again. Got the day off today in favor of Joe Mather against a tough lefty in Jaime Garcia, and hopefully that will give him a chance to make some adjustments and come out hitting against the Brew Crew.
Derek Lowe-Not a good outing in his first game pitching since getting a DUI. Still struck out 5 batters in 5 innings, which is good, but he started slow and put the Braves in a hole early, one which they eventually dug out of. A week to forget for Mr. Lowe.
Cory Gearrin- Faced adversity for the first time this season in the majors, and things didn't go very well, giving up a 2 run double to the punchless Nick Punto in extra innings on Friday, and blowing a one run lead on Sunday. I like his stuff, as he can miss bats and most of the balls in play against him have been on the ground, but he will have to perform in higher leverage situations to gain the full trust of Fredi Gonzalez.
What to Watch For:
The Brewers come to Atlanta for a 4 game set, and the Braves will want to exact some revenge on them for taking 3 out of four in their previous series. There are a couple of things to keep an eye on. First, Milwaukee hitters haven't been the most patient this year, so Braves pitchers will want to make sure they don't give Milwaukee any extra base runners if they don't have too. Secondly, Milwaukee has some easy outs in the lineup. Yuniesky Betancourt, Carlos Gomez, and Mark Kotsay (at least on Monday, as Corey Hart will be activated Tuesday reportedly) are terrible hitters, and allowing them to get on base will really compound things when their really good hitters (Braun, Fielder, Weeks) get to the plate. Betancourt gave the Braves some problems in Milwaukee, and a pitching staff as good as the Braves' staff should have no problems with getting him out. Bad hitters need to be forced into making outs, and doing so will help the Braves tremendously the next 4 days.
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