I feel I owe it to the guy to make a short post today after a splendid performance defending Dwight Howard last night. I made a post a couple of weeks back about how having 5 centers on your roster (and 4 useless bigs in general) was not a good way to construct an NBA roster. I still feel this way, but one of those useless bigs proved that he does have some use. Granted, its a very limited one, and it doesn't hide the fact that there are 3 other useless bigs on the roster taking up 4 roster spots (including the open one that the vet's minimum contracts are preventing the Hawks from using at this time).
However, Jason Collins earned his paycheck last night, and then some. He played great physical, positional defense, drawing charges and frustrating the hell out of Howard all night, not letting Howard get to the spots he is accustomed to against most other centers. After witnessing the one of the most lopsided playoff series' ever last spring between the Hawks and Magic, a first round tussle between the same 2 foes could be a competition. This probably has more to do with the Magic turning over their roster than any improvement by the Hawks. But, Jason Collins seems to be able to check Howard better than anyone the Hawks had last year, and it isn't that close. Sure, Collins was on the roster last year, but he was horribly out of shape and overweight, rendering the one redeeming quality he ever had in the league (defending really big centers) obsolete. Collins trimmed down this summer and can once again move laterally, as well as up and down the court faster than Eddy Curry (well, he hasn't played in like 3 years, but I'm drawing this conclusion based on the fact I KNOW Curry hasn't missed a meal in at least 3 years).
Thus the Hawks have a chance in the playoffs against a team they have never had a chance against. The parts around the should-be league MVP Howard (he won't win, but he is the most deserving candidate) are much weaker than last year too, meaning the Hawks could (gasp!) win a couple of games in the series. I could be overreacting to the fact that Hawks might have 9.5 roster spots filled by competent NBA players instead of the 9 I originally thought (Collins is still useless against at least 80% of the NBA teams), but there might be reason for Atlanta fans to at least keep an eye on the Hawks in the 1st round of the playoffs. It is a shame that this is what it has come to, but we all enjoy grasping at any hope that can be conjured up.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Atlanta Braves Bullpen Preview: The Youngsters Step to the Forefront
Arguably the biggest strength of the Braves last year was their bullpen, which featured unbelievable depth and versatility. Led by 38 year old flamethrower Billy Wagner, the 'pen put out most fires and closed out most games when called upon. Wagner and Takashi Saito are gone, but this should continue to be a strength of the Braves. Youngsters Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel should handle things on the back end, with Peter Moylan, Eric O'Flaherty, and Scott Linebrink taking care of the front end.
Jonny Venters comes off a terrific rookie year, which should make him the key member of the Braves bullpen. Whether he's closing, setting up, or both, expect Fredi Gonzalez to use him early and often just as Bobby Cox did. Venters has one of the best fastballs you will see, not because he throws in the mid 90s but because he gets great sink on it as well. 68.4% of balls in play against Venters were on the ground, which is a phenomenal number. Combine that with over 10 Ks per 9 innings and you have a decent reliever. His command is the key, as long as his fastball is finding the plate, he should be fine. However, it moves so much that he can struggle with it. Aim for the middle, Jonny, and things will be fine.
Venters' main partner in crime will probably be Craig Kimbrel, and his stuff might be better than Venters. The possessor of 2 plus-plus pitches (fastball and slider), Kimbrel only needs consistent command to become an elite reliever in MLB. He showed improved command when he came back up in September, and boy was he good from that point. In just 20.2 innings, he struck out 40 (!) batters, good enough for a 17.42 K rate, or almost 2 batters per inning. Obviously, it's tough to score if you can't hit the ball. It's a small sample size, but that number speaks for itself. His K/BB was over 4 to 1 in September, and he'll be lethal if he can get anywhere close to that number again.
One of the other returning leaders of a solid pen is sidewinding Australian Peter Moylan, who first joined the Braves after a successful showing in the inaugural World Baseball Classic, and any worms in the Turner Field infield have paid the price ever since. Moylan throws a low 90s fastball that nobody can elevate, posting ridiculous groundball rates throughout his career. Last years ground ball rate was 67.8%, and Moylan routinely got other Braves pitchers out of jams by inducing double play grounders. He strikes out over 7 per 9 innings as well, which is solid, but he walks too many hitters to be terribly comfortable with him. He bails himself out with all the ground balls, but fewer base runners would help his cause out. Still, he is a solid experienced set up man.
From the left side, Fredi Gonzalez can turn to Eric O'Flaherty, who was picked up off the scrap heap from Seattle 2 seasons ago and has turned into one of the better left handed relievers in the National League. Despite having injury/illness problems last year, he continued to get left handed hitters out when called upon. O'Flaherty keeps the ball on the ground, and has decent command as well. Although not as good against right handers (because he struggles with location against righties), he can be called upon in many situations to pitch a full inning if he is needed.
However, that is not the case with Atlanta's 3rd left handed reliever. Judging by his stats last year, George Sherrill should have a sign over top of him that says, "Break Glass Only in Case of Emergency against RH Batters." Right handers hit .427 against Sherrill last year with a .516 OBP and .707 slugging percentage. His command completely abandoned him, walking almost as many as he struck out. He hasn't had a great spring either, but it was only in 2009 that he posted a 1.70 ERA while posting a K:BB ratio of 2.5:1. Plus, despite his putrid season numbers last year, he was still murder against left handed hitters, with left handed batters posting a .196/.286/.288 triple slash against him. Thus, he should have a role, but how big that role will be determined by how he throws early on.
Scott Linebrink brings another veteran presence to the bullpen, and he will be glad to get out of the homer haven that is US Cellular Field. Linebrink was a fly ball pitcher pitching in one of the most notorious hitters parks in the bigs, and his home run rates ballooned accordingly. However, his command is very good, striking out over 8 per 9 innings the last 2 years while walking around 3 per 9, not bad numbers for a reliever. The Ted is a more pitcher friendly park, so I would his HR rate to drop a bit. However, he still has to do his part and keep the ball down. If he can do that, he will be an asset. Expect an untimely bomb or two to be hit off of him this year, but he should contribute positively to the cause overall.
And finally, Christian Martinez will start the season as the long man. Martinez was solid last year in limited appearances, posting a decent K rate and an excellent walk rate. His fastball is lively enough and he throws a lot of strikes, so he could soak up a few decent innings during the times the Atlanta starters falter. In 52 career innings, his FIP is 3.60. It's a limited sample size, but it does offer some hope that he can contribute positively when called upon.
Jonny Venters comes off a terrific rookie year, which should make him the key member of the Braves bullpen. Whether he's closing, setting up, or both, expect Fredi Gonzalez to use him early and often just as Bobby Cox did. Venters has one of the best fastballs you will see, not because he throws in the mid 90s but because he gets great sink on it as well. 68.4% of balls in play against Venters were on the ground, which is a phenomenal number. Combine that with over 10 Ks per 9 innings and you have a decent reliever. His command is the key, as long as his fastball is finding the plate, he should be fine. However, it moves so much that he can struggle with it. Aim for the middle, Jonny, and things will be fine.
Venters' main partner in crime will probably be Craig Kimbrel, and his stuff might be better than Venters. The possessor of 2 plus-plus pitches (fastball and slider), Kimbrel only needs consistent command to become an elite reliever in MLB. He showed improved command when he came back up in September, and boy was he good from that point. In just 20.2 innings, he struck out 40 (!) batters, good enough for a 17.42 K rate, or almost 2 batters per inning. Obviously, it's tough to score if you can't hit the ball. It's a small sample size, but that number speaks for itself. His K/BB was over 4 to 1 in September, and he'll be lethal if he can get anywhere close to that number again.
One of the other returning leaders of a solid pen is sidewinding Australian Peter Moylan, who first joined the Braves after a successful showing in the inaugural World Baseball Classic, and any worms in the Turner Field infield have paid the price ever since. Moylan throws a low 90s fastball that nobody can elevate, posting ridiculous groundball rates throughout his career. Last years ground ball rate was 67.8%, and Moylan routinely got other Braves pitchers out of jams by inducing double play grounders. He strikes out over 7 per 9 innings as well, which is solid, but he walks too many hitters to be terribly comfortable with him. He bails himself out with all the ground balls, but fewer base runners would help his cause out. Still, he is a solid experienced set up man.
From the left side, Fredi Gonzalez can turn to Eric O'Flaherty, who was picked up off the scrap heap from Seattle 2 seasons ago and has turned into one of the better left handed relievers in the National League. Despite having injury/illness problems last year, he continued to get left handed hitters out when called upon. O'Flaherty keeps the ball on the ground, and has decent command as well. Although not as good against right handers (because he struggles with location against righties), he can be called upon in many situations to pitch a full inning if he is needed.
However, that is not the case with Atlanta's 3rd left handed reliever. Judging by his stats last year, George Sherrill should have a sign over top of him that says, "Break Glass Only in Case of Emergency against RH Batters." Right handers hit .427 against Sherrill last year with a .516 OBP and .707 slugging percentage. His command completely abandoned him, walking almost as many as he struck out. He hasn't had a great spring either, but it was only in 2009 that he posted a 1.70 ERA while posting a K:BB ratio of 2.5:1. Plus, despite his putrid season numbers last year, he was still murder against left handed hitters, with left handed batters posting a .196/.286/.288 triple slash against him. Thus, he should have a role, but how big that role will be determined by how he throws early on.
Scott Linebrink brings another veteran presence to the bullpen, and he will be glad to get out of the homer haven that is US Cellular Field. Linebrink was a fly ball pitcher pitching in one of the most notorious hitters parks in the bigs, and his home run rates ballooned accordingly. However, his command is very good, striking out over 8 per 9 innings the last 2 years while walking around 3 per 9, not bad numbers for a reliever. The Ted is a more pitcher friendly park, so I would his HR rate to drop a bit. However, he still has to do his part and keep the ball down. If he can do that, he will be an asset. Expect an untimely bomb or two to be hit off of him this year, but he should contribute positively to the cause overall.
And finally, Christian Martinez will start the season as the long man. Martinez was solid last year in limited appearances, posting a decent K rate and an excellent walk rate. His fastball is lively enough and he throws a lot of strikes, so he could soak up a few decent innings during the times the Atlanta starters falter. In 52 career innings, his FIP is 3.60. It's a limited sample size, but it does offer some hope that he can contribute positively when called upon.
Monday, March 28, 2011
Atlanta Braves Starters Preview: A Solid Foundation
Reliability. That was the name of the game with the Atlanta Braves starting staff a year ago. None of them are clear cut number ones at this time, but the rotation strength comes in the sum of its parts rather than the talents of a couple of individuals. Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Brandon Beachy, and Mike Minor will be the main parts in some form or fashion of another solid Atlanta Braves rotation. Consistent, quality innings shouldn't be a problem for this group, and the Braves should be in most games this year as the starting pitching won't let them get too far behind in a game.
The opening day starter this year will be Derek Lowe, who isn't a number one starter despite being paid like one. However, lets appreciate Lowe for what he is, which is an innings eater who gets lots of ground balls. Lowe improved on his sub par 2009, posting an ERA of exactly 4 while increasing his K rate to 6.32 (not great, but much better than 2009) and lowering his BB rate a bit as well. However, of more interest to myself and Braves fans was his performance in September/October, when he posted these numbers; 1.17 ERA, 8.51 K rate, .88 BB rate, 1.90 FIP. Those are outstanding numbers, and they reflect a bit of a change in philosophy for Lowe, as he just about doubled the use of his slider during that final month. Don't expect numbers that dominant again, but there could be hope that a better year will be in store for Lowe. Stay tuned, and keep an eye on that.
Joining Lowe among worm killers will be Tim Hudson, who is coming off a very solid 2010. Hudson was one of the best in the league at getting groundballs last year, posting a ridiculous 64.2% ground ball rate, which I imagine means hitters think they are hitting a shotput rather than a baseball when he is delivering it to home. Hudson was a little bit lucky last year on balls in play, but his career numbers with BABIP is .280, meaning he seems to handle balls in play a little bit better than most pitchers. Of more concern is that his K rate went down and his BB rate went up, numbers we don't want to see happen again. However, if he keeps getting 2/3rds of balls in play on the ground, he should be ok. Expect more solid innings from Hudson this year.
Tommy Hanson will slide into the number 3 slot once again, and he too will be one that Fredi Gonzalez can rely on. His K rate mysteriously plummeted the last 2 months of the season (which is something to keep an eye on), but his command was still excellent in those last 2 months along with an improved ground ball ratio. Hanson is still just 24 years old, so he should continue to improve the next couple of years, and he has 4 average to plus (or even plus-plus in some people's eyes) pitches with which to work. He posted 4.3 WAR last year, and I would expect similar numbers this year, with an ERA in the low to mid 3s, a few more Ks than last year, and plenty of visits to Peachtree Tavern (I promise he'll be there on plenty of nights he isn't pitching).
A few recent question marks arrive with starter number 4 in the rotation. Jair Jurrjens looked to bounce back from an injury plagued 2010, but recent back spasms have put the start of his season into question. It supposedly isn't serious, but it is something to keep an eye on should they linger into April and beyond. A fully healthy Jair would be helpful for the Braves. However, looking at his peripherals the last couple of years show a declining pitcher, and it remains to be seen whether injuries were to blame or if it is an erosion of skills, even at the tender age of 25. The reason for worry is his ground ball rate, which dropped from over 51% in 2008 to 39.9 by the time 2010 ended. That is not a good trend. However, injuries could be to blame for that, and if he can stay healthy and keep his low 90s fastball and plus changeup sinking, he will provide plenty of good things for the Braves. Keep an eye on his ground balls if you want to know if he's right or not. He isn't as prolific as Lowe and Hudson in this regard, but if he is around 50% in ground ball rate, he is a very solid 2 or 3 starter in most rotations.
The last of the 6 notable starters will be Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor. Beachy won the #5 starters job this spring, but Minor could start the season with the big club too if Jurrjens isn't ready to go. Beachy wasn't even drafted when he came out of college, but he tore through the minor leagues like a high draft pick. His stuff isn't going to wow you, but it is more than good enough, featuring a low 90s fastball with a curveball and changeup that he can generally command. Beachy struck out 11.2 batters per 9 innings last year, while also showing pinpoint control. I don't expect his K rate to be that high in the bigs, but I think 7+ per 9 is more than reasonable. He also has been very good since turning pro at keeping the ball in the yard. He pitched great in spring training, and there seems to be a lot to like here. Minor, on the other hand, is a former top 10 draft pick who hurls from the southside, but he tore through the minors just like Beachy. After making a simple mechanical adjustment after being drafted out of Vanderbilt, Minor was suddenly throwing in the low 90s, making him a much better prospect than many had anticipated at draft time. Minor struck out about 11 per 9 innings last year in the minors, much better than anticipated when he was first drafted. He commands 3 pitches well, and posted an 11.3% swinging strike rate over 40 innings in the majors (only 3 qualified starting pitchers posted a better rate than this last year, for some perspective). He can miss bats. What to watch with him is whether he can keep the ball in the yard. He is something of a fly ball pitcher, so home runs could naturally become a problem. His command is generally solid, so keeping the ball down should help him develop into a solid starter in time and perhaps in the present. He seems to have a good future ahead of him, too, so lets hope he stays healthy and performs when he is called upon to boost his confidence.
The opening day starter this year will be Derek Lowe, who isn't a number one starter despite being paid like one. However, lets appreciate Lowe for what he is, which is an innings eater who gets lots of ground balls. Lowe improved on his sub par 2009, posting an ERA of exactly 4 while increasing his K rate to 6.32 (not great, but much better than 2009) and lowering his BB rate a bit as well. However, of more interest to myself and Braves fans was his performance in September/October, when he posted these numbers; 1.17 ERA, 8.51 K rate, .88 BB rate, 1.90 FIP. Those are outstanding numbers, and they reflect a bit of a change in philosophy for Lowe, as he just about doubled the use of his slider during that final month. Don't expect numbers that dominant again, but there could be hope that a better year will be in store for Lowe. Stay tuned, and keep an eye on that.
Joining Lowe among worm killers will be Tim Hudson, who is coming off a very solid 2010. Hudson was one of the best in the league at getting groundballs last year, posting a ridiculous 64.2% ground ball rate, which I imagine means hitters think they are hitting a shotput rather than a baseball when he is delivering it to home. Hudson was a little bit lucky last year on balls in play, but his career numbers with BABIP is .280, meaning he seems to handle balls in play a little bit better than most pitchers. Of more concern is that his K rate went down and his BB rate went up, numbers we don't want to see happen again. However, if he keeps getting 2/3rds of balls in play on the ground, he should be ok. Expect more solid innings from Hudson this year.
Tommy Hanson will slide into the number 3 slot once again, and he too will be one that Fredi Gonzalez can rely on. His K rate mysteriously plummeted the last 2 months of the season (which is something to keep an eye on), but his command was still excellent in those last 2 months along with an improved ground ball ratio. Hanson is still just 24 years old, so he should continue to improve the next couple of years, and he has 4 average to plus (or even plus-plus in some people's eyes) pitches with which to work. He posted 4.3 WAR last year, and I would expect similar numbers this year, with an ERA in the low to mid 3s, a few more Ks than last year, and plenty of visits to Peachtree Tavern (I promise he'll be there on plenty of nights he isn't pitching).
A few recent question marks arrive with starter number 4 in the rotation. Jair Jurrjens looked to bounce back from an injury plagued 2010, but recent back spasms have put the start of his season into question. It supposedly isn't serious, but it is something to keep an eye on should they linger into April and beyond. A fully healthy Jair would be helpful for the Braves. However, looking at his peripherals the last couple of years show a declining pitcher, and it remains to be seen whether injuries were to blame or if it is an erosion of skills, even at the tender age of 25. The reason for worry is his ground ball rate, which dropped from over 51% in 2008 to 39.9 by the time 2010 ended. That is not a good trend. However, injuries could be to blame for that, and if he can stay healthy and keep his low 90s fastball and plus changeup sinking, he will provide plenty of good things for the Braves. Keep an eye on his ground balls if you want to know if he's right or not. He isn't as prolific as Lowe and Hudson in this regard, but if he is around 50% in ground ball rate, he is a very solid 2 or 3 starter in most rotations.
The last of the 6 notable starters will be Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor. Beachy won the #5 starters job this spring, but Minor could start the season with the big club too if Jurrjens isn't ready to go. Beachy wasn't even drafted when he came out of college, but he tore through the minor leagues like a high draft pick. His stuff isn't going to wow you, but it is more than good enough, featuring a low 90s fastball with a curveball and changeup that he can generally command. Beachy struck out 11.2 batters per 9 innings last year, while also showing pinpoint control. I don't expect his K rate to be that high in the bigs, but I think 7+ per 9 is more than reasonable. He also has been very good since turning pro at keeping the ball in the yard. He pitched great in spring training, and there seems to be a lot to like here. Minor, on the other hand, is a former top 10 draft pick who hurls from the southside, but he tore through the minors just like Beachy. After making a simple mechanical adjustment after being drafted out of Vanderbilt, Minor was suddenly throwing in the low 90s, making him a much better prospect than many had anticipated at draft time. Minor struck out about 11 per 9 innings last year in the minors, much better than anticipated when he was first drafted. He commands 3 pitches well, and posted an 11.3% swinging strike rate over 40 innings in the majors (only 3 qualified starting pitchers posted a better rate than this last year, for some perspective). He can miss bats. What to watch with him is whether he can keep the ball in the yard. He is something of a fly ball pitcher, so home runs could naturally become a problem. His command is generally solid, so keeping the ball down should help him develop into a solid starter in time and perhaps in the present. He seems to have a good future ahead of him, too, so lets hope he stays healthy and performs when he is called upon to boost his confidence.
Friday, March 25, 2011
Atlanta Braves Outfield Preview: Shedding Dead Weight
Last year's outfield was an unmitigated disaster with the notable exception of a splendid 20 year old right fielder. That should change this year, as the fantastic second baseman from last year should now be the very solid left fielder, while the 29 year old center fielder should bounce back, as former All Star don't just forget how to hit. Nate McLouth had a bad year, but he can't play that bad again, and his spring training statistics show promise for a much better season.
We will start in left field, where Martin Prado will learn a new position on the fly. After spending a couple of years on the fringes of the everyday lineup, Prado exploded onto the scene last year, starting the year at 2nd base, posting a .307/.350/.459 last year. Martin makes a lot of contact, and a line drive is usually on the end of his bat. He should hit lead off this year and be a spark to the Atlanta offense whether playing left field or subbing at 3rd. Prado's bat plays best at 2nd base, but the numbers he posted last year will make him a slightly above average offensive left fielder. His defense will be a question mark, but he has been getting good reviews from the people who have seen him at Disney this spring.
Prado's presence in left is also key because it means Melky Cabrera's presence won't be needed. Among all qualified players, the Melk Dud posted -1.2 WAR which was the worst total among said qualified players in the bigs. Melky's absence means sadness for local fast food joints and night clubs in the Atlanta area, but it should mean lots of happiness for the Atlanta offense with the subtraction of a singles hitting out making machine. Expect a .300 plus average once again from Prado with 50+ extra base hits and over 100 runs scored. Add that to the fact that his value over last year will essentially be compared to Cabrera, which means Prado will start the year with 1.2 WAR head start on him. Thus a 3 WAR season out of Prado would essentially be worth 4.2 WAR to the Braves as compared to last year. That works.
Next on the list will be the much maligned Nate McLouth. The center fielder was traded to Atlanta from Pittsburgh with the expectation of being about a 3 WAR player in center, and frankly, Frank Wren had no reason to believe he would go in the tank. He was an All Star in 2008 with a .369 wOBA, while starting the season on that same pace in 2009 when the trade was made. Wren has been criticized for this trade, and wrongly in my opinion because McLouth was 27 at the time and had a proven track record of being a quality major leaguer. Plus, he gave up nothing of consequence in the deal. Truth is though, McLouth had a terrible year last year, but I think there is reason for hope because 28 year old proven hitters almost never forget how to hit. His BB rate was still very solid, and his BABIP was an unlucky .221 last year. Thus I'm expecting a bit of a bounce back from McLouth, and his spring numbers have provided me no reason to think otherwise. If he hits .260/.345/.440 this year, that would be huge when compared to his -1.3 WAR last season. Again, addition by subtraction, only in this case, its subtracting the bad McLouth with the good one. It should also be noted that McLouth is a formal Gold Glover, but in name only. Nate was probably one of the all time worst Gold Glove selection in the history of time, posting a -12 UZR in 2008 when winning it. He threw out a guy at the plate in extra innings in the All Star game and won the award because of that play and slugging .497. Awesome job voters. Well done. But anyway, McLouth should provide more value this year, and any plus value he brings will make Braves' fans very happy.
Last, and certainly not least, is right fielder Jason Heyward, and its almost all positive when it comes to him. .277/.393/.456, .376 wOBA, 5 WAR last year, and he was 20 years old. I just heard John Gruden tell Ron Jaworski, "I like this guy, Jaws." And I do too. There is a track record for players like him at age 20, and pretty much all of them involve many All Star appearances and Hall of Fame inductions when they stay healthy. And Heyward is that good. His K rate was higher than expected last year considering his minor league track record, but if he can drop that a little bit, he could raise his batting average some. That combined with a healthy thumb, which robbed him of power for about 5 weeks last year, could lead him to a .900 plus OPS this year at age 21. Plus, he's an above average defender in right with very good range and a plus arm. And, again, he's 21. I like this guy, Jaws. Pray for good health with him, because the pieces are all in place for him to become one of the games very best. Expect some gradual progression to that level as long as he is healthy this year.
We will start in left field, where Martin Prado will learn a new position on the fly. After spending a couple of years on the fringes of the everyday lineup, Prado exploded onto the scene last year, starting the year at 2nd base, posting a .307/.350/.459 last year. Martin makes a lot of contact, and a line drive is usually on the end of his bat. He should hit lead off this year and be a spark to the Atlanta offense whether playing left field or subbing at 3rd. Prado's bat plays best at 2nd base, but the numbers he posted last year will make him a slightly above average offensive left fielder. His defense will be a question mark, but he has been getting good reviews from the people who have seen him at Disney this spring.
Prado's presence in left is also key because it means Melky Cabrera's presence won't be needed. Among all qualified players, the Melk Dud posted -1.2 WAR which was the worst total among said qualified players in the bigs. Melky's absence means sadness for local fast food joints and night clubs in the Atlanta area, but it should mean lots of happiness for the Atlanta offense with the subtraction of a singles hitting out making machine. Expect a .300 plus average once again from Prado with 50+ extra base hits and over 100 runs scored. Add that to the fact that his value over last year will essentially be compared to Cabrera, which means Prado will start the year with 1.2 WAR head start on him. Thus a 3 WAR season out of Prado would essentially be worth 4.2 WAR to the Braves as compared to last year. That works.
Next on the list will be the much maligned Nate McLouth. The center fielder was traded to Atlanta from Pittsburgh with the expectation of being about a 3 WAR player in center, and frankly, Frank Wren had no reason to believe he would go in the tank. He was an All Star in 2008 with a .369 wOBA, while starting the season on that same pace in 2009 when the trade was made. Wren has been criticized for this trade, and wrongly in my opinion because McLouth was 27 at the time and had a proven track record of being a quality major leaguer. Plus, he gave up nothing of consequence in the deal. Truth is though, McLouth had a terrible year last year, but I think there is reason for hope because 28 year old proven hitters almost never forget how to hit. His BB rate was still very solid, and his BABIP was an unlucky .221 last year. Thus I'm expecting a bit of a bounce back from McLouth, and his spring numbers have provided me no reason to think otherwise. If he hits .260/.345/.440 this year, that would be huge when compared to his -1.3 WAR last season. Again, addition by subtraction, only in this case, its subtracting the bad McLouth with the good one. It should also be noted that McLouth is a formal Gold Glover, but in name only. Nate was probably one of the all time worst Gold Glove selection in the history of time, posting a -12 UZR in 2008 when winning it. He threw out a guy at the plate in extra innings in the All Star game and won the award because of that play and slugging .497. Awesome job voters. Well done. But anyway, McLouth should provide more value this year, and any plus value he brings will make Braves' fans very happy.
Last, and certainly not least, is right fielder Jason Heyward, and its almost all positive when it comes to him. .277/.393/.456, .376 wOBA, 5 WAR last year, and he was 20 years old. I just heard John Gruden tell Ron Jaworski, "I like this guy, Jaws." And I do too. There is a track record for players like him at age 20, and pretty much all of them involve many All Star appearances and Hall of Fame inductions when they stay healthy. And Heyward is that good. His K rate was higher than expected last year considering his minor league track record, but if he can drop that a little bit, he could raise his batting average some. That combined with a healthy thumb, which robbed him of power for about 5 weeks last year, could lead him to a .900 plus OPS this year at age 21. Plus, he's an above average defender in right with very good range and a plus arm. And, again, he's 21. I like this guy, Jaws. Pray for good health with him, because the pieces are all in place for him to become one of the games very best. Expect some gradual progression to that level as long as he is healthy this year.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Atlanta Braves Infield Preview: The Return of the Jedi
Now it's time for what we have all been waiting for, which is Atlanta Braves baseball. The weather has been unseasonably warm in the ATL for the last few weeks, meaning that waiting for baseball season has seemed to be longer than usual. However, our favorite rites of passages to spring have come and gone (daylight savings time, Vanderbilt losing in the 1st round, Hawks quitting when times get tough, etc.), meaning baseball season is now only 8 days away. I will preview the Braves in 4 parts, starting with the infield today.
Discussion of the Braves infield will start in the same place it has started for the last 15 years (well minus 2 years when he played in the outfield), and that is at the hot corner. Chipper Jones returns from an August ACL tear to begin his 17th season as a regular in the Braves lineup. Over the last 2 years, Chipper finally has shown some signs of decline, posting wOBAs of .354 and .358 respectively. Yes, those are his numbers when he is clearly in decline. Chipper, I'm going to miss you when you retire. Most of Chipper's value these days comes from a batting eye so good that I'm convinced he could be a servicable big league hitter well into his 40s, posting walk rates over 16% each of the last 3 years. His career OBP is .405, which should be a ticket into the Hall of Fame for Chipper when combined with a .306 batting average, 400 homers, and a .536 slugging percentage. Braves fans will hope for 130 games from Chipper this year, and if he gives it to them, the lineup will be that much better for it, even at age 39.
Moving over to shortstop, the Braves picked up Alex Gonzalez' 2.5 million option for 2011 and rightfully so. Despite being a polar opposite at the plate from Chipper by swinging as hard as he can at everything close to the plate, the Braves were absolutely correct in picking up Gonzalez' option, considering there was no in house replacement, and the fact that 2.5 million is quite a bargain for a player of his quality. In between swinging through sliders off the plate (then yelling at himself afterwards), Gonzalez is a fantastic defender at shortstop, having good range, great hands, and a plus throwing arm. He is well above average defensively on a team in dire need of above average defenders. At the plate, he has the patience of someone who is stuck in traffic, but he does have plus power for the shortstop position. Despite posting a .294 OBP last year, Gonzalez still found a way to be valuable by clubbing 23 homers, good for a .447 slugging percentage. His HR per fly ball ratio was very high last year, but if he can provide good defense and a .420 slugging percentage or so (both things being extremely reasonable for him), that 2.5 million will be money well spent on a player providing 2-3 WAR of value. He will be terribly frustrating to watch while flailing at anything close to the plate, but keeping things in perspective makes you realize he adds plenty to the team.
Gonzalez' double play partner will be Atlanta's key offseason acquistion, as Dan Uggla (and his forearms) has settled in Atlanta. Dealt to the Braves for Omar Infante and Mike Dunn, Uggla will provide the Braves lineup with some much needed power from the right side of the plate. Unfortunately, that is the only part of the game Uggla will contribute in, as he possesses hands of stone as well as the range of stone. However, Uggla has hit 30+ homers in each of the last 4 years, and is a good bet to do it again this year, considering how well he's hit at Turner Field over the years(we should take into consideration that taking him off of the Marlins might save the Braves 1-2 wins, considering how well he hit Braves pitching over the years. This is just my theory, but Uggla killed the Braves when he was down there), as well as leaving a tough pitchers park in Florida for the Ted, which is more favorable to right handed power hitters. Uggla had his best season last year, batting .287/.369/.508 for the season. He probably won't hit .287 again in his career considering how much he strikes out, but Uggla is a patient hitter with plenty of power. He adds a lot to the lineup, and the Braves should score more runs this year than last year mainly because of his presence. Despite his defensive deficiencies, his offense more than makes up for it.
Young Freddie Freeman will man first this year, and his contributions this year will be a wild card in the Braves' season. Only 21, Freddie has hit at every level he's played and appears to be ready for the big leagues. Last year, Freeman hit .319/.378/.518, good enough for the International League Rookie of the Year Award. Freeman's patience at the plate is average, but he does have decent contact rates for a first baseman to make up for that a bit, and the fact that he hit so well at AAA at the age of 20 means he should be a productive hitter in time. However, its hard to count on a 21 year old who is not named Jason Heyward, despite an impressive track record. The leap to the bigs is obviously a hard one, so it will be interesting to see if he gets off to a good start this year. He should bring a bit more pop and a higher batting average in years to come, but this year, it is hard to expect much more than .270 and 15 homers this year. That combined with good defense at first base would be an excellent rookie year for Freeman. Considering his track record, he should hit well in the majors, when is more of the question for him.
And finally, the least regarded 5 time All Star in all of baseball will do the catching. Brian McCann has spent 5.5 years in the bigs and has racked up 23.9 wins above replacement for his trouble. Excellent production from a position that many clubs struggle to get any offensive production out of. McCann posted a career high BB rate (13.1%) last year, while also posting a career high in K rate to cancel that out. It will be interesting to watch that to see if either rate stays at those levels. A drop in K rate with the walk rate holding steady could mean bigger things for Mac, who it should be noted improved his percentage throwing out baserunners to a career high 30% in 2010. Despite that fluctuation in BB and K rate, Mac is as steady as they come behind the dish, extremely durable and reliable ever since he was called up at the ripe old age of 21 in 2005. The Braves are in good hands here, and will be for the foreseeable future. Fangraphs projects 4.7 WAR this year, and I think that is about right.
Discussion of the Braves infield will start in the same place it has started for the last 15 years (well minus 2 years when he played in the outfield), and that is at the hot corner. Chipper Jones returns from an August ACL tear to begin his 17th season as a regular in the Braves lineup. Over the last 2 years, Chipper finally has shown some signs of decline, posting wOBAs of .354 and .358 respectively. Yes, those are his numbers when he is clearly in decline. Chipper, I'm going to miss you when you retire. Most of Chipper's value these days comes from a batting eye so good that I'm convinced he could be a servicable big league hitter well into his 40s, posting walk rates over 16% each of the last 3 years. His career OBP is .405, which should be a ticket into the Hall of Fame for Chipper when combined with a .306 batting average, 400 homers, and a .536 slugging percentage. Braves fans will hope for 130 games from Chipper this year, and if he gives it to them, the lineup will be that much better for it, even at age 39.
Moving over to shortstop, the Braves picked up Alex Gonzalez' 2.5 million option for 2011 and rightfully so. Despite being a polar opposite at the plate from Chipper by swinging as hard as he can at everything close to the plate, the Braves were absolutely correct in picking up Gonzalez' option, considering there was no in house replacement, and the fact that 2.5 million is quite a bargain for a player of his quality. In between swinging through sliders off the plate (then yelling at himself afterwards), Gonzalez is a fantastic defender at shortstop, having good range, great hands, and a plus throwing arm. He is well above average defensively on a team in dire need of above average defenders. At the plate, he has the patience of someone who is stuck in traffic, but he does have plus power for the shortstop position. Despite posting a .294 OBP last year, Gonzalez still found a way to be valuable by clubbing 23 homers, good for a .447 slugging percentage. His HR per fly ball ratio was very high last year, but if he can provide good defense and a .420 slugging percentage or so (both things being extremely reasonable for him), that 2.5 million will be money well spent on a player providing 2-3 WAR of value. He will be terribly frustrating to watch while flailing at anything close to the plate, but keeping things in perspective makes you realize he adds plenty to the team.
Gonzalez' double play partner will be Atlanta's key offseason acquistion, as Dan Uggla (and his forearms) has settled in Atlanta. Dealt to the Braves for Omar Infante and Mike Dunn, Uggla will provide the Braves lineup with some much needed power from the right side of the plate. Unfortunately, that is the only part of the game Uggla will contribute in, as he possesses hands of stone as well as the range of stone. However, Uggla has hit 30+ homers in each of the last 4 years, and is a good bet to do it again this year, considering how well he's hit at Turner Field over the years(we should take into consideration that taking him off of the Marlins might save the Braves 1-2 wins, considering how well he hit Braves pitching over the years. This is just my theory, but Uggla killed the Braves when he was down there), as well as leaving a tough pitchers park in Florida for the Ted, which is more favorable to right handed power hitters. Uggla had his best season last year, batting .287/.369/.508 for the season. He probably won't hit .287 again in his career considering how much he strikes out, but Uggla is a patient hitter with plenty of power. He adds a lot to the lineup, and the Braves should score more runs this year than last year mainly because of his presence. Despite his defensive deficiencies, his offense more than makes up for it.
Young Freddie Freeman will man first this year, and his contributions this year will be a wild card in the Braves' season. Only 21, Freddie has hit at every level he's played and appears to be ready for the big leagues. Last year, Freeman hit .319/.378/.518, good enough for the International League Rookie of the Year Award. Freeman's patience at the plate is average, but he does have decent contact rates for a first baseman to make up for that a bit, and the fact that he hit so well at AAA at the age of 20 means he should be a productive hitter in time. However, its hard to count on a 21 year old who is not named Jason Heyward, despite an impressive track record. The leap to the bigs is obviously a hard one, so it will be interesting to see if he gets off to a good start this year. He should bring a bit more pop and a higher batting average in years to come, but this year, it is hard to expect much more than .270 and 15 homers this year. That combined with good defense at first base would be an excellent rookie year for Freeman. Considering his track record, he should hit well in the majors, when is more of the question for him.
And finally, the least regarded 5 time All Star in all of baseball will do the catching. Brian McCann has spent 5.5 years in the bigs and has racked up 23.9 wins above replacement for his trouble. Excellent production from a position that many clubs struggle to get any offensive production out of. McCann posted a career high BB rate (13.1%) last year, while also posting a career high in K rate to cancel that out. It will be interesting to watch that to see if either rate stays at those levels. A drop in K rate with the walk rate holding steady could mean bigger things for Mac, who it should be noted improved his percentage throwing out baserunners to a career high 30% in 2010. Despite that fluctuation in BB and K rate, Mac is as steady as they come behind the dish, extremely durable and reliable ever since he was called up at the ripe old age of 21 in 2005. The Braves are in good hands here, and will be for the foreseeable future. Fangraphs projects 4.7 WAR this year, and I think that is about right.
Monday, March 21, 2011
Philadelphia Phillies: The Pitching Rich get Richer
Baseball fans know about the Phillies offseason. Acquiring a pitcher as good as Cliff Lee qualifies as newsworthy, especially when they snuck in and got him when nobody was expecting it. Personally, I thought he was a lock for the Yankees, but the Phillies ended up getting their man. After sleepwalking through the first half of the season, the Phillies got a jolt of energy after their acquisition of Roy Oswalt at midseason, and it propelled them all the way to the National League East crown. However, they fell short of their goal, going down to the Giants in 6 games in the NLCS. Will the acquisition of Lee lead them to another NL East crown and a run at the World Series? Lets take a look.
Infield: Ah, to be Young...
The biggest reason for the Phillies' rise to beasts of the east was their infield, and they still remain the backbone of their offense. However, age could be taking a toll, especially with Chase Utley looking for ways to avoid surgery on his ailing right knee. If he has to miss any significant time, that is an enormous loss. When healthy, he is hands down the best 2nd baseman in the bigs, combining plate discipline, power, and unbelievable range at 2nd to produce 5.2 WAR last year in just 115 games, after racking up 23.5 WAR in the 3 previous seasons. However, injuries have moved a cloud of doubt over his season, making it difficult to project how good he will be this season.
Utley's double play partner also may be beginning to show his age. 32 year old Jimmy Rollins, missed about half the season last year due to injury, and his performance last year when he was on the field was not up to his usual lofty standards hitting .243/.320/.374 last year. However, his BABIP has been low each of the last two years, so a bounce back in that category could lift his hitting somewhat. He should have enough left in the tank to be a productive player this year as long as he is healthy. Unfortunately for Phillies' fans, that is a big if. To Rollins' right will be Placido Polanco, who is an extraordinary contact hitter who also provides plenty of value on defense. However, he's 35 and injury prone as well, topping 145 games just once since 2003. Both he and Rollins are superlative defenders as well, making an awesome Phillies starting staff even better.
The next one to cover on the infield is Ryan Howard, who is the largest and most overrated player on this infield. This isn't to say he isn't a quality player (he is), but paying him 25 million a season like the Phillies are just isn't worth it. He is well below average defensively, and has posted huge RBI numbers thanks to hitting behind the likes of Rollins and Utley for years and years, which has inflated his reputation. He has great power, but even that dropped off significantly, hitting .276/.353/.505 last year. Good numbers, but do you want to pay $25 million for that combined with below average defense? Me neither. Over the last 3 seasons, he has produced 9.9 WAR, solid numbers, but also proving he is well overpaid. Carlos Ruiz will do the catching, and he was spectacular last year in a lineup that is always in need of right handed balance. Ruiz posted a .400 OBP last year, great numbers that will help the Phils turn the lineup over to the dangerous guys at the top. Expect a regression from that number this year due to a probable drop in BABIP (.335 last year), but he is an underrated member of the lineup.
Overall, this is an outstanding group, but any injuries from this aging crew means the likes of Wilson Valdez or Ross Gload enters the lineup, a huge dropoff (especially for Utley). The recently cut Luis Castillo has joined the club as well. I don't think highly of Castillo (see Mets preview), but for a minor league contract, he is worth the gamble.
Outfield: A Notewerthy Defection
Lets cut to the chase, losing Jayson Werth was a huge blow to the Phillies lineup. His right handed bat provided balance to a lineup heavy on left handers, and a legitimate argument could be made that he was the Phillies best hitter last year (the jury is still out on whether his facial hair will be missed, but that's neither here nor there).
The most vital cog in the Phillies' outfield this year will be Hawaii native Shane Victorino. Victorino has been a pretty consistent hitter for the Phillies the last 4 years, sporting a wOBA between .352 and .355 from 2007-09, and would have been there last year if not for a .273 BABIP. Shane has wheels, puts the ball in play, and can turn on a fastball and deposit it into the seats if you aren't careful. Plus, he is an above average defender in center, which is a good thing considering who patrols (er, stands in) left field.
Raul Ibanez will once again man left, and at age 38, could continue a decline that appears to have started last year. In 2009, Ibanez came out like a man possessed, clubbing 17 homers in the 1st 2 months before finishing with 34. His performance dropped off considerably last year, an entirely predictable outcome considering 21% of fly balls left the yard in 2009, which is an unsustainable rate for even the best of power hitters. Ibanez hit .275/.349/.444, which are decent numbers, but when combined with shoddy defense in left, it doesn't look nearly as attractive. Ibanez makes $12 million and is in the last year of his contract, so expect this to be his last year in Philadelphia, considering the decline his career appears to be in.
With Dominic Brown's preseason injury, Ben Francisco will hold down right field to start the season. He is a right handed hitter who can provide a bit of balance to the lineup. With a career .263/.329/.446 triple slash and a track record as a below average defender, he won't make Phillies fans forget about the Jayson Werth. Also, Brown's injury really limits Philly's already thin bench, meaning any more injuries to any of the lineup regulars (who are all over 30 except Francisco, who is 29) could put a serious dent into what should be a pretty good offense. Francisco's play will be interesting to watch while trying to replace a key cog.
Starting Pitching: No, It's Not a Misprint
The offseason coup of Cliff Lee brings Philly's already dominant staff to another level, adding a 4th all star to the rotation. I'll cover Roy Halladay here, and, well, he's a man. Dominant, filthy, overpowering, it all describes him. Nothing else really needs to be said other than he is a stud.
Sliding into the number 2 hole is Lee who has been one of the best in MLB ever since an adjustment to his mechanics before 2008. He repeats his delivery every time and his command is unbelievable, posting a K/BB ratio of 10.28 to 1 last year. I wonder if a pitching machine could produce a ratio that good. His impeccable command limits baserunners and helps keep the ball in the yard, which will be useful considering the bandbox he plays in. Anyway, his signing offsets the loss of Werth and then some.
Cole Hamels will probably man the 3 spot in the rotation, and he is coming off his best season yet. He struck out over a batter an inning for the 1st time in 4 years, and a new cutter helped him produce the highest ground ball rate of his career. He did benefit from an 82.7% strand rate which is likely to regress some (his career rate is 76.6% which is still superb), but an ERA in the 3.3s is probably the most likely scenario for Hamels this year, which is excellent work. All Star number 4 is Roy Oswalt, who enjoyed a nice bounce back season last year, posting a 2.76 ERA. However, a .253 BABIP means that the ERA will probably be moving upwards a bit this year, but Oswalt will still be plenty productive. Anyone who strikes out over 8 per 9 innings with a K/BB ratio of around 3.5 to 1 should be a productive pitcher, and I expect more production from Oswalt this year, despite being 33 years old.
Joe Blanton will round out the rotation for the Phillies, and despite not being a world beater, he should provide plenty of value as the 5th starter in the rotation. Since coming to Philly, Blanton has rediscovered some value by actually striking people out, something he never did with the Oakland Athletics. His improved K rate has limited some of the baserunners that used to plague him, and he has been productive since putting on a Phillies uniform. I think close to 200 innings and a 4.4 ERA are reasonable expectations, numbers most teams would kill for from their fifth starter.
Bullpen: Taking the Day Off
Yep, it's going to be good to be a Phillies' reliever this year. With 4 studs at the top and an innings eater in the number 5 hole, there won't be much need for relief pitchers in an ideal world for the Phillies. However, they do have a couple of decent options in case a lead needs to be held.
Discussion of the Phillies' bullpen starts with Brad Lidge, and he can be an adventure. Ever since an infamous lash of Albert Pujols' bat in 2005 (one of the single most awesome random baseball moments I have ever watched live), Lidge has been a mystery. Blessed with a good fastball and a nasty slider, Lidge is as tough as they come when his command is good. However, he's walked about 5 batters per 9 innings each of the last 2 years, and his performance has suffered a bit because of it. Last year was something of a bounce back year, but with his command troubles, I don't see him ever being the guy he was 2008 (the only really great year he's had statistically since big, bad Albert came calling).
Setting up Lidge will be Ryan Madson, who will be starting his 27th year as the Phillies primary set up man. Ok, its not really that long, but most relievers don't spend as much time in one role with one team as he has. Originally groomed to be a starter when he first came up to the bigs, Madson has settled into a prominent role in the pen, having his best season last year. He set career highs in both K rate and BB rate (as in lowest rate), and combines a plus fastball with a devastating changeup, which is consistently graded out as one of the most effective pitches in all of baseball. He is a force.
After those two is where things get interesting. Jose Contreras had a nice year last year, but he is 39 years old and had posted 3 very average seasons before last year. 39 year olds generally don't put up 2 good seasons in a row after 3 average ones. J.C. Romero, can get lefties out, but he can also walk plenty of them too. Danys Baez can't strike anyone out anymore, and his command is inconsistent as well. Antonio Bastardo has a live arm, but limited experience. If they decide to go with 12 pitchers, Scott Mathieson or Kyle Kendrick could get the nod. Mathieson has a live arm who struggles with command, and Kendrick is a sinker/slider guy who would be a good candidate for a long man. He's extremely hittable against everyone but the Braves, however, so there could be times that a rough outing from a starter will turn into a long night for Phillies' fans. However, I wouldn't expect many rough outings from the starters.
Outlook: You Win Games When the Other Team Can't Score
It's pretty obvious that your chances increase when you prevent runs from scoring, and when you have starting pitching like this, you should be in most every ball game. The Phillies have enough firepower on offense to score enough runs, and normal production form their starting pitching should get this team close to 100 wins and another division crown. There are enough questions on offense regarding health to say they will get to 100, but I think a 98-64 record looks about right with the pitching. That will be enough to finish in 1st in the East for the 5th straight year.
Infield: Ah, to be Young...
The biggest reason for the Phillies' rise to beasts of the east was their infield, and they still remain the backbone of their offense. However, age could be taking a toll, especially with Chase Utley looking for ways to avoid surgery on his ailing right knee. If he has to miss any significant time, that is an enormous loss. When healthy, he is hands down the best 2nd baseman in the bigs, combining plate discipline, power, and unbelievable range at 2nd to produce 5.2 WAR last year in just 115 games, after racking up 23.5 WAR in the 3 previous seasons. However, injuries have moved a cloud of doubt over his season, making it difficult to project how good he will be this season.
Utley's double play partner also may be beginning to show his age. 32 year old Jimmy Rollins, missed about half the season last year due to injury, and his performance last year when he was on the field was not up to his usual lofty standards hitting .243/.320/.374 last year. However, his BABIP has been low each of the last two years, so a bounce back in that category could lift his hitting somewhat. He should have enough left in the tank to be a productive player this year as long as he is healthy. Unfortunately for Phillies' fans, that is a big if. To Rollins' right will be Placido Polanco, who is an extraordinary contact hitter who also provides plenty of value on defense. However, he's 35 and injury prone as well, topping 145 games just once since 2003. Both he and Rollins are superlative defenders as well, making an awesome Phillies starting staff even better.
The next one to cover on the infield is Ryan Howard, who is the largest and most overrated player on this infield. This isn't to say he isn't a quality player (he is), but paying him 25 million a season like the Phillies are just isn't worth it. He is well below average defensively, and has posted huge RBI numbers thanks to hitting behind the likes of Rollins and Utley for years and years, which has inflated his reputation. He has great power, but even that dropped off significantly, hitting .276/.353/.505 last year. Good numbers, but do you want to pay $25 million for that combined with below average defense? Me neither. Over the last 3 seasons, he has produced 9.9 WAR, solid numbers, but also proving he is well overpaid. Carlos Ruiz will do the catching, and he was spectacular last year in a lineup that is always in need of right handed balance. Ruiz posted a .400 OBP last year, great numbers that will help the Phils turn the lineup over to the dangerous guys at the top. Expect a regression from that number this year due to a probable drop in BABIP (.335 last year), but he is an underrated member of the lineup.
Overall, this is an outstanding group, but any injuries from this aging crew means the likes of Wilson Valdez or Ross Gload enters the lineup, a huge dropoff (especially for Utley). The recently cut Luis Castillo has joined the club as well. I don't think highly of Castillo (see Mets preview), but for a minor league contract, he is worth the gamble.
Outfield: A Notewerthy Defection
Lets cut to the chase, losing Jayson Werth was a huge blow to the Phillies lineup. His right handed bat provided balance to a lineup heavy on left handers, and a legitimate argument could be made that he was the Phillies best hitter last year (the jury is still out on whether his facial hair will be missed, but that's neither here nor there).
The most vital cog in the Phillies' outfield this year will be Hawaii native Shane Victorino. Victorino has been a pretty consistent hitter for the Phillies the last 4 years, sporting a wOBA between .352 and .355 from 2007-09, and would have been there last year if not for a .273 BABIP. Shane has wheels, puts the ball in play, and can turn on a fastball and deposit it into the seats if you aren't careful. Plus, he is an above average defender in center, which is a good thing considering who patrols (er, stands in) left field.
Raul Ibanez will once again man left, and at age 38, could continue a decline that appears to have started last year. In 2009, Ibanez came out like a man possessed, clubbing 17 homers in the 1st 2 months before finishing with 34. His performance dropped off considerably last year, an entirely predictable outcome considering 21% of fly balls left the yard in 2009, which is an unsustainable rate for even the best of power hitters. Ibanez hit .275/.349/.444, which are decent numbers, but when combined with shoddy defense in left, it doesn't look nearly as attractive. Ibanez makes $12 million and is in the last year of his contract, so expect this to be his last year in Philadelphia, considering the decline his career appears to be in.
With Dominic Brown's preseason injury, Ben Francisco will hold down right field to start the season. He is a right handed hitter who can provide a bit of balance to the lineup. With a career .263/.329/.446 triple slash and a track record as a below average defender, he won't make Phillies fans forget about the Jayson Werth. Also, Brown's injury really limits Philly's already thin bench, meaning any more injuries to any of the lineup regulars (who are all over 30 except Francisco, who is 29) could put a serious dent into what should be a pretty good offense. Francisco's play will be interesting to watch while trying to replace a key cog.
Starting Pitching: No, It's Not a Misprint
The offseason coup of Cliff Lee brings Philly's already dominant staff to another level, adding a 4th all star to the rotation. I'll cover Roy Halladay here, and, well, he's a man. Dominant, filthy, overpowering, it all describes him. Nothing else really needs to be said other than he is a stud.
Sliding into the number 2 hole is Lee who has been one of the best in MLB ever since an adjustment to his mechanics before 2008. He repeats his delivery every time and his command is unbelievable, posting a K/BB ratio of 10.28 to 1 last year. I wonder if a pitching machine could produce a ratio that good. His impeccable command limits baserunners and helps keep the ball in the yard, which will be useful considering the bandbox he plays in. Anyway, his signing offsets the loss of Werth and then some.
Cole Hamels will probably man the 3 spot in the rotation, and he is coming off his best season yet. He struck out over a batter an inning for the 1st time in 4 years, and a new cutter helped him produce the highest ground ball rate of his career. He did benefit from an 82.7% strand rate which is likely to regress some (his career rate is 76.6% which is still superb), but an ERA in the 3.3s is probably the most likely scenario for Hamels this year, which is excellent work. All Star number 4 is Roy Oswalt, who enjoyed a nice bounce back season last year, posting a 2.76 ERA. However, a .253 BABIP means that the ERA will probably be moving upwards a bit this year, but Oswalt will still be plenty productive. Anyone who strikes out over 8 per 9 innings with a K/BB ratio of around 3.5 to 1 should be a productive pitcher, and I expect more production from Oswalt this year, despite being 33 years old.
Joe Blanton will round out the rotation for the Phillies, and despite not being a world beater, he should provide plenty of value as the 5th starter in the rotation. Since coming to Philly, Blanton has rediscovered some value by actually striking people out, something he never did with the Oakland Athletics. His improved K rate has limited some of the baserunners that used to plague him, and he has been productive since putting on a Phillies uniform. I think close to 200 innings and a 4.4 ERA are reasonable expectations, numbers most teams would kill for from their fifth starter.
Bullpen: Taking the Day Off
Yep, it's going to be good to be a Phillies' reliever this year. With 4 studs at the top and an innings eater in the number 5 hole, there won't be much need for relief pitchers in an ideal world for the Phillies. However, they do have a couple of decent options in case a lead needs to be held.
Discussion of the Phillies' bullpen starts with Brad Lidge, and he can be an adventure. Ever since an infamous lash of Albert Pujols' bat in 2005 (one of the single most awesome random baseball moments I have ever watched live), Lidge has been a mystery. Blessed with a good fastball and a nasty slider, Lidge is as tough as they come when his command is good. However, he's walked about 5 batters per 9 innings each of the last 2 years, and his performance has suffered a bit because of it. Last year was something of a bounce back year, but with his command troubles, I don't see him ever being the guy he was 2008 (the only really great year he's had statistically since big, bad Albert came calling).
Setting up Lidge will be Ryan Madson, who will be starting his 27th year as the Phillies primary set up man. Ok, its not really that long, but most relievers don't spend as much time in one role with one team as he has. Originally groomed to be a starter when he first came up to the bigs, Madson has settled into a prominent role in the pen, having his best season last year. He set career highs in both K rate and BB rate (as in lowest rate), and combines a plus fastball with a devastating changeup, which is consistently graded out as one of the most effective pitches in all of baseball. He is a force.
After those two is where things get interesting. Jose Contreras had a nice year last year, but he is 39 years old and had posted 3 very average seasons before last year. 39 year olds generally don't put up 2 good seasons in a row after 3 average ones. J.C. Romero, can get lefties out, but he can also walk plenty of them too. Danys Baez can't strike anyone out anymore, and his command is inconsistent as well. Antonio Bastardo has a live arm, but limited experience. If they decide to go with 12 pitchers, Scott Mathieson or Kyle Kendrick could get the nod. Mathieson has a live arm who struggles with command, and Kendrick is a sinker/slider guy who would be a good candidate for a long man. He's extremely hittable against everyone but the Braves, however, so there could be times that a rough outing from a starter will turn into a long night for Phillies' fans. However, I wouldn't expect many rough outings from the starters.
Outlook: You Win Games When the Other Team Can't Score
It's pretty obvious that your chances increase when you prevent runs from scoring, and when you have starting pitching like this, you should be in most every ball game. The Phillies have enough firepower on offense to score enough runs, and normal production form their starting pitching should get this team close to 100 wins and another division crown. There are enough questions on offense regarding health to say they will get to 100, but I think a 98-64 record looks about right with the pitching. That will be enough to finish in 1st in the East for the 5th straight year.
Saturday, March 19, 2011
Larry Drew's Mind Works in Fickle Ways
Opposing team's starting lineup: Mario Chalmers, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Erick Dampier. Now with the Hawks' roster, how might you oppose this lineup? How about play a useless center that doesn't need to be guarded on the defensive end, for fear of Erick Dampier? Jason Collins hadn't played a meaningful minute in 6 games, and yet, there he was in the starting lineup last night. Please note that this absolutely was not the reason the Hawks got shellacked last night. But wouldn't you want to start Horford at center, in order to exploit Dampier's lack of mobility on defense? Wouldn't Josh Smith match up better guarding Chris Bosh rather than LeBron James (please note that Smith has a history of terrorizing Bosh defensively)? Marvin Williams has a decent track record guarding LeBron (relatively speaking), so why not start him if you are worried about matchups? I really feel like all this makes too much sense, but what do I know, I'm only a fan.
So once the game started, even more hilarity ensued. Jamal Crawford is a unique player in the league, as he can get buckets like few others. However, when he isn't getting said buckets, its time to get him off the court. As in right away. He is such a liability on defense that his presence on the court isn't needed if he isn't making shots. 0-4, 1 rebound, 1 assist in 24 minutes. And a -26 in those 24 minutes. Jeff Teague can at least play defense when he is missing shots, which he does plenty of too, but his defensive quickness would probably help wreak some havoc and possibly create some offense through defense, which was desperately needed on a night (which are happening with alarming regularity these days) where the Hawks can't create any offense. However, he didn't get off the bench until the Hawks were down about 30 in the 2nd half. Of course, he got 13 points and 6 assists in garbage time, so he should be out of the doghouse for 1 game thankfully.
Even if Larry Drew had coached a perfect game last night, I really don't think it would have mattered. However, putting your team in the best position possible to win the game is his job, and I believe he failed last night, just like he did in the 4th quarter of the Nuggets game, when he assigned Jamal Crawford to guard Raymond Felton and Josh Smith to chase J.R. Smith around the perimeter. The Hawks have turned into a defensive team at this point, but Drew's lineup decisions are certainly not helping, sacrificing much of that defense for the possibility of scoring more points. It's not working, judging by the Hawks getting blown out in 5 home games already this month.
So once the game started, even more hilarity ensued. Jamal Crawford is a unique player in the league, as he can get buckets like few others. However, when he isn't getting said buckets, its time to get him off the court. As in right away. He is such a liability on defense that his presence on the court isn't needed if he isn't making shots. 0-4, 1 rebound, 1 assist in 24 minutes. And a -26 in those 24 minutes. Jeff Teague can at least play defense when he is missing shots, which he does plenty of too, but his defensive quickness would probably help wreak some havoc and possibly create some offense through defense, which was desperately needed on a night (which are happening with alarming regularity these days) where the Hawks can't create any offense. However, he didn't get off the bench until the Hawks were down about 30 in the 2nd half. Of course, he got 13 points and 6 assists in garbage time, so he should be out of the doghouse for 1 game thankfully.
Even if Larry Drew had coached a perfect game last night, I really don't think it would have mattered. However, putting your team in the best position possible to win the game is his job, and I believe he failed last night, just like he did in the 4th quarter of the Nuggets game, when he assigned Jamal Crawford to guard Raymond Felton and Josh Smith to chase J.R. Smith around the perimeter. The Hawks have turned into a defensive team at this point, but Drew's lineup decisions are certainly not helping, sacrificing much of that defense for the possibility of scoring more points. It's not working, judging by the Hawks getting blown out in 5 home games already this month.
Florida Marlins: Forever on the Rise
You have to hand it to the Florida Marlins, as this team seemingly always has plenty of talent on it despite a limited payroll. They have consistently done a great job of producing talent, then dealing the talent at the right time, which in turn brings back more young talent, with which they develop it and repeat the process. Now that they are moving into a new ballpark next year (and because MLB forced their hand as well), they have locked up some of that talent long term, notably their 2 best players Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson. It will not quite get them up to the Phillies and Braves' level in the East, but this team could be over .500 this year and a nuissance to anyone they play.
Infield: The King and his Court
Since bursting onto the scene with the Marlins in 2006, Hanley Ramirez has been one of, if not the best shortstop in Major League Baseball. Blessed with a power and speed combo that would make players at any other position jealous, Ramirez also has a terrific eye at the plate, and his numbers show this. He had a down year last year, producing a triple slash of .300/.378/.475 at the shortstop position. Yeah, that was a down year for him, and significantly so. Now that he can concentrate solely on baseball and not gettting his manager fired, expect Hanley to return his OPS to above .900 this year. That would be production that only Troy Tulowitzki could hope to match from the shortstop position. Hanley's defense leaves a lot to be desired, but he's so good on offense it really doesn't matter that much.
His double play partner to start the year will probably be Omar Infante, who will replace Dan Uggla after the two swapped teams this offseason. Omar is a good contact hitter without much power or patience, so his offensive value will mainly come from his batting average. Since joining the NL in 2008, he has hit around .300 in over 1000 plate appearances. It won't make up Uggla's production, but he will provide some value at 2nd with a pretty good batting average and better defense than Uggla did. Joining Infante on the right side will be Gaby Sanchez, who played decently enough last year for them to move top prospect Logan Morrison to the outfield last year. He might show some slight improvement over last year, but he was an old prospect to begin with last year which might stunt some potential growth. I would expect his wOBA to come in around .350 this year, after producing a .346 last year. Not great production out of 1st base, but having Hanley over at short kind of cancels that out.
Third base and catcher is where things get tricky. It appears that top prospect Matt Dominguez is going to win the job at 3rd base out of spring training. While a talented player, I have my doubts as to whether the 21 year old Dominguez is ready for the show. At double A, he posted a .252/.333/.411, which is only encouraging because he will take a walk. Since he's 21, there is still plenty of time for him to develop, but as a Marlins fan, I would like it to be done in the minor leagues this year. However, Wes Helms and Emilio Bonafacio are the only other options. Helms is a 35 year old career journeyman better off in a pinch hitter's role, and Bonafacio still hasn't learned that you can't steal 1st base. He is better off in a utility/pinch runner's role than as an everyday player. Rounding out the infield behind the plate will be John Buck, who swings hard in case he hits it. He has plus power for the catching position, but he strikes out a ton and never takes a walk (3.7% BB rate last year). That combined with his move to a pitcher's park this year will probably suppress his power numbers this year, and a regression from his .335 BABIP last year will almost certainly drop his batting average as well.
Outfield: That Guy in Right Can't be Human
That guy in right would be Mike Stanton, and this blogger has never seen a 20 year old in the majors with as much power as this guy. His ISO power was .248 as a 20 year old, which makes me do a double take every time I see it. His downfall as rookie was an absurd 34.3% K rate last year, but a .259/.326/.507 as a 20 year old rookie is nothing to sneeze at. He also showed plus range in right as well, meaning he has the potential to be Adam Dunn at the plate with plus defense. And that is a very, scary thought.
The rest of the outfield isn't quite as intriguing as that (not much is), but Logan Morrison can really hit too. He is still learning left field, and he is going to be below average in left as long as he is out there, but his bat needs to play somewhere. In close to 300 plate appearances last year, he posted a 14.3 BB%, which is going to make him valuable no matter how bad his defense is. Plus, he had a .447 slugging percentage as a 22 year old last year, so I imagine that will develop a bit this year, and in a couple of years, he could be someone who challenges a .300/.400/.500 triple slash line by the time he is 26 or so. Marlins' fans should be very excited about him IMO.
The wild card in the outfield will be opening day center fielder Chris Coghlan. Coghlan was the 2009 NL Rookie of the Year playing left field, and he will open this season in center, a position that he has never played in pro ball. A natural 2nd baseman, I don't really see why they wouldn't put Coghlan at 2nd and Infante in center, who has experience playing in the major leagues at center. But anyway, Coghlan can hit as well, although it will be worth watching to see if his K rate comes back to his career norms as compared to last year. He was a great contact hitter at every level, but inexplicably struck out in 23.5% of his plate appearances last year. I expect a rebound there to be honest. He has a decent batting eye and ok power too, which combined with good contact rate will make him a solid big league hitter. However, he was a below average defender in left, which makes me believe he could be in way over his head in center defensively. As long as he avoids shaving cream pies at all cost this year, expect him to hit pretty well and give away most of that value defensively in center.
Starting Pitching: The Joshua Tree
This is the number one reason I like the Marlins over both the Mets and Nationals this year. Josh Johnson is 6'7" and 252 pounds (that's conservative) of boss. In case you haven't figured it out, I like guys who strike out over a batter an inning, don't walk people, and throw 98 mph sinkers that hitters can't elevate off the bat. It's a good combination. The Nats and Mets have aces, but both are hurt. Johnson is not, and he is coming off a 6.3 WAR season while entering his age 27 season. Boss.
Slotting in behind Johnson will be Ricky Nolasco and Javier Vazquez, which is pretty excellent because they are kind of the same guy. Both players are routinely sabermatrician's dreams as they strike out plenty of hitters while walking almost no one. Yet, Nolasco has a 4.41 ERA and Vazquez sports a 4.26, despite each player's career FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) hovering around 3.90. It is strange for people with these guy's experience to have FIPs that far apart from their ERA's, as they generally even out in the end. However, the only explanation is that both of them leave too many pitches over the heart of the plate because of their control, causing more runs to cross the plate than what you might expect from a pitcher with the peripherals that both of these players possess. However, it always makes a breakout season in play as well, so these 2 are pitchers to keep an eye on.
Rounding out the rotation should be Chris Volstad and Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez has consistently posted over 7 Ks per 9 innings, but took a step forward last year when he lowered his BB rate to 3.23. That still isn't exceptional, but when you have consistenly resided above 4 in BB rate, that is significant improvement. He posted 4+ WAR over last year, but I expect that to drop a bit this year as his HR rate regresses to regular levels. However, he should provide a lot of value as a #4 starter for the Marlins. Volstad is a former top prospect who's 6'8" frame belies what he actually is. You would expect him to blow away his opposition, but he actually pitches to contact with a good sinker. Volstad has decent control, but he will never reach the elite levels he was projected to at one point unless he strikes out a few more batters or increases his ground ball rate significantly. If he doesn't do either of those, he should still settle in as a decent back of the rotation starter. That is where he is slotting in this year, and he still possesses some upside to get better, being only 24 years old.
Bullpen: Any Closers Around?
After being a significant weakness last year, the Marlins bullpen should be better this year, as it possesses more depth than last year. However, is there a closer in the bunch? Leo Nunez will probably start the year there, but he blew 8 saves last year, mainly because his command abandons him at the worst of times. He is better in the role of set up man. However, I don't think there will be a shortage of options should he fail this year. Former Padres reliever Clay Hensley was fantastic in a set up role last year, striking out over a batter an inning on his way to a 2.16 ERA. He will probably be joined in a set up role by another former Padre Edward Mujica, who possessed a K/BB ratio of 12 to 1 last year, which is just awesome. He gives up too many homers, but he should be a good value in the bullpen because he never walks anyone. Brian Sanches did a nice job for the Marlins as well, taking advantage of the cavernous Land Shark Stadium, which tailored perfectly to his fly ball tendencies. He strikes out enough players to be effective, although I wouldn't expect 2.26 ERA again this year if his BABIP evens out like it should. If they are able to stay in these roles, the Marlins will be better served, as none of them have typical closer stuff.
Rounding out the bullpen will probably LOOGYs Randy Choate and Mike Dunn, along with ROOGY Ryan Webb. Dunn throws serious gas from the left side, while also struggling seriously with his command. If he can figure out where the ball is going, he could be a dangerous bullpen weapon. The 35 year old Choate has been around forever, but his K rate is good and his groundball rate is excellent, meaning he should be murder against left handers once again. Ryan Webb is another former Padre (good strategy, as the Padres are the best at pulling bullpen arms off the scrap heap) who is absolute murder on RH hitters, as those batters posted a .297 slugging percentage against him last year. However, LH hitters hit .333 last year against him, meaning it might be best to stick to right handers whenever possible.
Outlook: A Thorn in the Side of the Phillies and Braves
There is enough talent on this team to make some noise. However, a lot has to go right, like the bullpen falling into place, Dominguez actually being ready for majors, and whether Coghlan can man center everyday. I think the bullpen will be better, but I don't think Dominguez is ready or Coghlan can handle center. Plus, they don't have a lot of depth, so when injuries inevitably hit, I don't know if they can cope. I'm thinking 83-79 for this team, as their starting pitching is good enough to keep them in most games, and they have enough hitting talent to score a few runs too.
Infield: The King and his Court
Since bursting onto the scene with the Marlins in 2006, Hanley Ramirez has been one of, if not the best shortstop in Major League Baseball. Blessed with a power and speed combo that would make players at any other position jealous, Ramirez also has a terrific eye at the plate, and his numbers show this. He had a down year last year, producing a triple slash of .300/.378/.475 at the shortstop position. Yeah, that was a down year for him, and significantly so. Now that he can concentrate solely on baseball and not gettting his manager fired, expect Hanley to return his OPS to above .900 this year. That would be production that only Troy Tulowitzki could hope to match from the shortstop position. Hanley's defense leaves a lot to be desired, but he's so good on offense it really doesn't matter that much.
His double play partner to start the year will probably be Omar Infante, who will replace Dan Uggla after the two swapped teams this offseason. Omar is a good contact hitter without much power or patience, so his offensive value will mainly come from his batting average. Since joining the NL in 2008, he has hit around .300 in over 1000 plate appearances. It won't make up Uggla's production, but he will provide some value at 2nd with a pretty good batting average and better defense than Uggla did. Joining Infante on the right side will be Gaby Sanchez, who played decently enough last year for them to move top prospect Logan Morrison to the outfield last year. He might show some slight improvement over last year, but he was an old prospect to begin with last year which might stunt some potential growth. I would expect his wOBA to come in around .350 this year, after producing a .346 last year. Not great production out of 1st base, but having Hanley over at short kind of cancels that out.
Third base and catcher is where things get tricky. It appears that top prospect Matt Dominguez is going to win the job at 3rd base out of spring training. While a talented player, I have my doubts as to whether the 21 year old Dominguez is ready for the show. At double A, he posted a .252/.333/.411, which is only encouraging because he will take a walk. Since he's 21, there is still plenty of time for him to develop, but as a Marlins fan, I would like it to be done in the minor leagues this year. However, Wes Helms and Emilio Bonafacio are the only other options. Helms is a 35 year old career journeyman better off in a pinch hitter's role, and Bonafacio still hasn't learned that you can't steal 1st base. He is better off in a utility/pinch runner's role than as an everyday player. Rounding out the infield behind the plate will be John Buck, who swings hard in case he hits it. He has plus power for the catching position, but he strikes out a ton and never takes a walk (3.7% BB rate last year). That combined with his move to a pitcher's park this year will probably suppress his power numbers this year, and a regression from his .335 BABIP last year will almost certainly drop his batting average as well.
Outfield: That Guy in Right Can't be Human
That guy in right would be Mike Stanton, and this blogger has never seen a 20 year old in the majors with as much power as this guy. His ISO power was .248 as a 20 year old, which makes me do a double take every time I see it. His downfall as rookie was an absurd 34.3% K rate last year, but a .259/.326/.507 as a 20 year old rookie is nothing to sneeze at. He also showed plus range in right as well, meaning he has the potential to be Adam Dunn at the plate with plus defense. And that is a very, scary thought.
The rest of the outfield isn't quite as intriguing as that (not much is), but Logan Morrison can really hit too. He is still learning left field, and he is going to be below average in left as long as he is out there, but his bat needs to play somewhere. In close to 300 plate appearances last year, he posted a 14.3 BB%, which is going to make him valuable no matter how bad his defense is. Plus, he had a .447 slugging percentage as a 22 year old last year, so I imagine that will develop a bit this year, and in a couple of years, he could be someone who challenges a .300/.400/.500 triple slash line by the time he is 26 or so. Marlins' fans should be very excited about him IMO.
The wild card in the outfield will be opening day center fielder Chris Coghlan. Coghlan was the 2009 NL Rookie of the Year playing left field, and he will open this season in center, a position that he has never played in pro ball. A natural 2nd baseman, I don't really see why they wouldn't put Coghlan at 2nd and Infante in center, who has experience playing in the major leagues at center. But anyway, Coghlan can hit as well, although it will be worth watching to see if his K rate comes back to his career norms as compared to last year. He was a great contact hitter at every level, but inexplicably struck out in 23.5% of his plate appearances last year. I expect a rebound there to be honest. He has a decent batting eye and ok power too, which combined with good contact rate will make him a solid big league hitter. However, he was a below average defender in left, which makes me believe he could be in way over his head in center defensively. As long as he avoids shaving cream pies at all cost this year, expect him to hit pretty well and give away most of that value defensively in center.
Starting Pitching: The Joshua Tree
This is the number one reason I like the Marlins over both the Mets and Nationals this year. Josh Johnson is 6'7" and 252 pounds (that's conservative) of boss. In case you haven't figured it out, I like guys who strike out over a batter an inning, don't walk people, and throw 98 mph sinkers that hitters can't elevate off the bat. It's a good combination. The Nats and Mets have aces, but both are hurt. Johnson is not, and he is coming off a 6.3 WAR season while entering his age 27 season. Boss.
Slotting in behind Johnson will be Ricky Nolasco and Javier Vazquez, which is pretty excellent because they are kind of the same guy. Both players are routinely sabermatrician's dreams as they strike out plenty of hitters while walking almost no one. Yet, Nolasco has a 4.41 ERA and Vazquez sports a 4.26, despite each player's career FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) hovering around 3.90. It is strange for people with these guy's experience to have FIPs that far apart from their ERA's, as they generally even out in the end. However, the only explanation is that both of them leave too many pitches over the heart of the plate because of their control, causing more runs to cross the plate than what you might expect from a pitcher with the peripherals that both of these players possess. However, it always makes a breakout season in play as well, so these 2 are pitchers to keep an eye on.
Rounding out the rotation should be Chris Volstad and Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez has consistently posted over 7 Ks per 9 innings, but took a step forward last year when he lowered his BB rate to 3.23. That still isn't exceptional, but when you have consistenly resided above 4 in BB rate, that is significant improvement. He posted 4+ WAR over last year, but I expect that to drop a bit this year as his HR rate regresses to regular levels. However, he should provide a lot of value as a #4 starter for the Marlins. Volstad is a former top prospect who's 6'8" frame belies what he actually is. You would expect him to blow away his opposition, but he actually pitches to contact with a good sinker. Volstad has decent control, but he will never reach the elite levels he was projected to at one point unless he strikes out a few more batters or increases his ground ball rate significantly. If he doesn't do either of those, he should still settle in as a decent back of the rotation starter. That is where he is slotting in this year, and he still possesses some upside to get better, being only 24 years old.
Bullpen: Any Closers Around?
After being a significant weakness last year, the Marlins bullpen should be better this year, as it possesses more depth than last year. However, is there a closer in the bunch? Leo Nunez will probably start the year there, but he blew 8 saves last year, mainly because his command abandons him at the worst of times. He is better in the role of set up man. However, I don't think there will be a shortage of options should he fail this year. Former Padres reliever Clay Hensley was fantastic in a set up role last year, striking out over a batter an inning on his way to a 2.16 ERA. He will probably be joined in a set up role by another former Padre Edward Mujica, who possessed a K/BB ratio of 12 to 1 last year, which is just awesome. He gives up too many homers, but he should be a good value in the bullpen because he never walks anyone. Brian Sanches did a nice job for the Marlins as well, taking advantage of the cavernous Land Shark Stadium, which tailored perfectly to his fly ball tendencies. He strikes out enough players to be effective, although I wouldn't expect 2.26 ERA again this year if his BABIP evens out like it should. If they are able to stay in these roles, the Marlins will be better served, as none of them have typical closer stuff.
Rounding out the bullpen will probably LOOGYs Randy Choate and Mike Dunn, along with ROOGY Ryan Webb. Dunn throws serious gas from the left side, while also struggling seriously with his command. If he can figure out where the ball is going, he could be a dangerous bullpen weapon. The 35 year old Choate has been around forever, but his K rate is good and his groundball rate is excellent, meaning he should be murder against left handers once again. Ryan Webb is another former Padre (good strategy, as the Padres are the best at pulling bullpen arms off the scrap heap) who is absolute murder on RH hitters, as those batters posted a .297 slugging percentage against him last year. However, LH hitters hit .333 last year against him, meaning it might be best to stick to right handers whenever possible.
Outlook: A Thorn in the Side of the Phillies and Braves
There is enough talent on this team to make some noise. However, a lot has to go right, like the bullpen falling into place, Dominguez actually being ready for majors, and whether Coghlan can man center everyday. I think the bullpen will be better, but I don't think Dominguez is ready or Coghlan can handle center. Plus, they don't have a lot of depth, so when injuries inevitably hit, I don't know if they can cope. I'm thinking 83-79 for this team, as their starting pitching is good enough to keep them in most games, and they have enough hitting talent to score a few runs too.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
New York Mets: Fictitious Profits = False Hope
Ah, the New York Mets. After a certain high profile Ponzi scheme fiasco, the Mets are in disarray, as they are aging, overpaid, and lacking in young talent. Combine this overpaid bunch with the fact that their ownership doesn't have any money (as they can no longer get it by scamming others out of it), and it becomes painfully obvious that this team isn't getting better anytime soon. The Mets made the first step for improvement by firing incompetent general manager Omar Minaya, which means that sabermetric aficionados like can now focus all of their ridicule for GMs on Dayton Moore (in another note, it also means that Mets fans can now appreciate viewing HBO's The Wire, as they won't cringe nearly as much when they hear the kids say "Omar's Coming"). But I digress, on to the preview.
Infield: Questions in the Middle
Any discussion of the Mets' infield should start with David Wright, and this preview is no different. Wright's power was on the rebound after mysteriously disappearing in 2009, posting a .503 slugging percentage, which falls much closer to his career norms sans 2009. His walk rate did drop to 10.3%, but he was still a very productive player in 2010. After spending 3 years with a walk rate about 12%, I imagine that will be on the rebound as well. Of greater concern is that he has been a disaster on the defensive end the last 2 years according to UZR, and with the shaky state of the New York pitching staff, it would really help if he got to more infield grounders.
On the other corner will be Ike Davis, who really provided some nice value at first base last year as a rookie, producing 3.4 WAR on his rookie scale contract. Of particular note was some excellent defense, which he combined with a good eye at the plate to post a .351 OBP, which should improve a bit with more experience. Jose Reyes will man shortstop, and his main tasks will be staying healthy and actually laying off a pitch or two if he is healthy. He has decent power for a speed guy and is an unbelievable pest when he gets on base. However, he wouldn't take a pitch last year, posting a .321 OBP last year after posting OBPs above .350 4 years in a row before last year. Also, despite possessing good speed and range in the field, he was below average in the field each of the last 2 years. He was destined for stardom a couple of years ago, but is now merely just a good solid player. Josh Thole will do the catching, and his batting eye alone will help the Mets lineup by getting on base at the bottom of the order.
Unfortunately for the Mets, four players play on the infield beyond the pitcher. Omar Minaya's finest hour was when he awarded Luis Castillo a four year, $25 million contract in 2007 when he was 32 years old. He has rewarded the Mets faith in him by flushing money down the toilet for 3 years now, producing 2.8 WAR over 3 years. He has can get on base a little bit, which is his only value, but when you combine that skill with a ghastly .267 slugging percentage, you are clearly not the answer. Rumor has it that Terry Collins might turn to someone else, as Rotoworld reported the other day that Terry Collins has been "disenchanted" with Castillo, Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus, and Justin Turner. So Luis Hernandez might win this job for not totally sucking. Well done.
Outfield: Massacred by Wounded Knee
Carlos Beltran was once a fantastic player. Unfortunately, his age and balky knees have finally caught up to him, robbing him of most of his value for the fact the simply can't stay on the field anymore. He has played in only 145 games the past 2 years, and the Mets are hoping a move to right field will help his knees a bit. I still think he will be as injury prone as ever, but the Mets defense will probably improve a bit because of it. Once a fantastic defensive centerfielder, Beltran just doesn't move like he once did, but I expect even with balky knees that he will be a plus defender in right.
Now, the one biggest positive that came out of the Mets season last year was the emergence of 2011 center fielder Angel Pagan. Pagan combined a .341 wOBA at the plate with awesome defensive contributions at all 3 outfield positions last year. He is blessed with great instincts doubled with terrific speed, meaning he can cover acres of space in the outfield. He provided almost 5 WAR last year, helping to offset Beltran's injury problems and Jeff Francouer's presence for the 1st 5 months of the year. He will make 3.5 million this year, which is a huge win for the Mets.
Finally the other outfield corner will be manned by the overpaid Jason Bay, who represents the opposite end of the salary spectrum, providing little value for a lot of money. Paid 15 million last year, Bay slugged a paltry .402 for a supposed power hitter. Although he still gets on base at a good clip, Bay will have to recover some of that lost power, which won't be an easy task at the cavernous Citi Field. But don't worry Mets fans, he's 32 years old and is paid 16 million each of the next 3 years (Omar's coming Mets fans! Just kidding).
Starting Pitching: Rotation By Committee
Here's where things get difficult, when your ace is out half the season with a shoulder problem (you know, the absolute worst place for a pitcher to get injured). But on the brightside, when you have Chris Young, Chris Capuano, Dillon Gee, and Pat Misch to fill the void...
Yeah you see where this is going, as none of those guys will inspire much confidence. Mike Pelfrey will lead the way until Santana's back, and he's a workhorse who gets groundballs by the bushel. He isn't overly dominant however, as he relies on getting outs by contact, striking out just over 5 per 9 innings last year. If his sinker isn't sinking, he's usually in trouble. Jon Niese is a decent pitcher as well, as he supplements similar ground ball tendencies with a better strikeout rate. He should provide some good cheap production in the Mets' rotation the next few years.
Now to the unknowns. R.A. Dickey will slide into the number 3 spot in the rotation, and I really don't know what to think about that. At age 35, he seemed to turn a corner last year, throwing more strikes than ever and posting a ridiculous 55% groundball rate last year. However, he throws a knuckleball, which is generally a tough pitch to locate, and he benefited from a fortuitous .276 BABIP, meaning I am expecting some regression from last year. His BABIP will probably be up a bit, he will probably walk a few more than last year, and with a little regression in command, I also see the ground ball rate dropping a bit. He can still be a decent pitcher, I just wouldn't expect the same value he gave last year.
Chris Capuano was a decent pitcher in time, but he spent almost 3 years out of the show due to injury and ineffectiveness. He might have something left in the tank, but you don't feel comfortable saying it. Same thing goes for Chris Young, who has battled shoulder problems for 3 years. He walks a ton of guys, but he leverages that out when he is healthy by the fact he hides the ball well in his delivery, meaning decent contact is hard to come by. However, he hasn't been healthy in 3 years, and I imagine health will be an issue again. Pat Misch is a 30 year old journeyman who throws strikes and not much else, while Dillon Gee didn't inspire much confidence with his cameo last year. Top prospect Jennry Mejia could make an impact eventually, even after Jerry Manuel and Omar Minaya tried to stunt his growth by making him a little used reliever for the first 2 months of last year. Good times.
Bullpen: Hide the Fathers
Yep, K-Rod is back, and his adventures at the end of games are coming with him. Mets fans, lets all pray together that he doesn't finish (not save) 55 games this year. If he does, his 17.5 million (!) option will vest next year. Sweet dreams Mets fans. In all seriousness, he isn't a bad pitcher, but all of those resources can be put to much better use than on your closer. Especially when Bobby Parnell is your set up guy. Parnell struck out almost a batter an inning last year while touching 100 MPH on the radar gun multiple times. In addition to that, he doesn't walk people and posted an excellent 56.2% ground ball rate. Add it all up, and he overcame an unlucky .374 BABIP to post a 2.83 ERA out of the pen. And he is on his rookie contract. Omar, this is why you never spend ridiculous sums of money on a free agent closer, because young guys like this aren't that hard to find on the cheap.
After Parnell, it gets ugly. See if any of these names jump out: D.J. Carrasco, Taylor Buchholz, Taylor Tankersley, Manny Acosta, and Jason Isringhausen (I didn't know he was still alive either). Carrasco was decent for a couple of different teams last year, he should do fine. Buchholz and Tankersley were both former top prospects who are now looking to get their careers going again after injury setbacks. They had talent once, so the Mets are hoping to get lightning in a bottle. Braves fans like myself are all to familiar with Acosta's shenanigans, and Isringhausen hasn't been effective since 2007 either (I'm sensing a theme).
Outlook: A Lost Cause
The Mets have talent. The problem is staying healthy, and their track record makes it hard to be optimistic. Combining it with ownership problems and their ace on the shelf for at least half the year, and its hard imagining the Mets winning more than 75 games this year. There isn't much talent on the farm other than Mejia, so they won't be able to cover up shoddy pitching all along the pitching staff unless their lineup is completely healthy. Unfortunately for them, that won't happen, and this is going to be another lost year for the Mets.
Infield: Questions in the Middle
Any discussion of the Mets' infield should start with David Wright, and this preview is no different. Wright's power was on the rebound after mysteriously disappearing in 2009, posting a .503 slugging percentage, which falls much closer to his career norms sans 2009. His walk rate did drop to 10.3%, but he was still a very productive player in 2010. After spending 3 years with a walk rate about 12%, I imagine that will be on the rebound as well. Of greater concern is that he has been a disaster on the defensive end the last 2 years according to UZR, and with the shaky state of the New York pitching staff, it would really help if he got to more infield grounders.
On the other corner will be Ike Davis, who really provided some nice value at first base last year as a rookie, producing 3.4 WAR on his rookie scale contract. Of particular note was some excellent defense, which he combined with a good eye at the plate to post a .351 OBP, which should improve a bit with more experience. Jose Reyes will man shortstop, and his main tasks will be staying healthy and actually laying off a pitch or two if he is healthy. He has decent power for a speed guy and is an unbelievable pest when he gets on base. However, he wouldn't take a pitch last year, posting a .321 OBP last year after posting OBPs above .350 4 years in a row before last year. Also, despite possessing good speed and range in the field, he was below average in the field each of the last 2 years. He was destined for stardom a couple of years ago, but is now merely just a good solid player. Josh Thole will do the catching, and his batting eye alone will help the Mets lineup by getting on base at the bottom of the order.
Unfortunately for the Mets, four players play on the infield beyond the pitcher. Omar Minaya's finest hour was when he awarded Luis Castillo a four year, $25 million contract in 2007 when he was 32 years old. He has rewarded the Mets faith in him by flushing money down the toilet for 3 years now, producing 2.8 WAR over 3 years. He has can get on base a little bit, which is his only value, but when you combine that skill with a ghastly .267 slugging percentage, you are clearly not the answer. Rumor has it that Terry Collins might turn to someone else, as Rotoworld reported the other day that Terry Collins has been "disenchanted" with Castillo, Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus, and Justin Turner. So Luis Hernandez might win this job for not totally sucking. Well done.
Outfield: Massacred by Wounded Knee
Carlos Beltran was once a fantastic player. Unfortunately, his age and balky knees have finally caught up to him, robbing him of most of his value for the fact the simply can't stay on the field anymore. He has played in only 145 games the past 2 years, and the Mets are hoping a move to right field will help his knees a bit. I still think he will be as injury prone as ever, but the Mets defense will probably improve a bit because of it. Once a fantastic defensive centerfielder, Beltran just doesn't move like he once did, but I expect even with balky knees that he will be a plus defender in right.
Now, the one biggest positive that came out of the Mets season last year was the emergence of 2011 center fielder Angel Pagan. Pagan combined a .341 wOBA at the plate with awesome defensive contributions at all 3 outfield positions last year. He is blessed with great instincts doubled with terrific speed, meaning he can cover acres of space in the outfield. He provided almost 5 WAR last year, helping to offset Beltran's injury problems and Jeff Francouer's presence for the 1st 5 months of the year. He will make 3.5 million this year, which is a huge win for the Mets.
Finally the other outfield corner will be manned by the overpaid Jason Bay, who represents the opposite end of the salary spectrum, providing little value for a lot of money. Paid 15 million last year, Bay slugged a paltry .402 for a supposed power hitter. Although he still gets on base at a good clip, Bay will have to recover some of that lost power, which won't be an easy task at the cavernous Citi Field. But don't worry Mets fans, he's 32 years old and is paid 16 million each of the next 3 years (Omar's coming Mets fans! Just kidding).
Starting Pitching: Rotation By Committee
Here's where things get difficult, when your ace is out half the season with a shoulder problem (you know, the absolute worst place for a pitcher to get injured). But on the brightside, when you have Chris Young, Chris Capuano, Dillon Gee, and Pat Misch to fill the void...
Yeah you see where this is going, as none of those guys will inspire much confidence. Mike Pelfrey will lead the way until Santana's back, and he's a workhorse who gets groundballs by the bushel. He isn't overly dominant however, as he relies on getting outs by contact, striking out just over 5 per 9 innings last year. If his sinker isn't sinking, he's usually in trouble. Jon Niese is a decent pitcher as well, as he supplements similar ground ball tendencies with a better strikeout rate. He should provide some good cheap production in the Mets' rotation the next few years.
Now to the unknowns. R.A. Dickey will slide into the number 3 spot in the rotation, and I really don't know what to think about that. At age 35, he seemed to turn a corner last year, throwing more strikes than ever and posting a ridiculous 55% groundball rate last year. However, he throws a knuckleball, which is generally a tough pitch to locate, and he benefited from a fortuitous .276 BABIP, meaning I am expecting some regression from last year. His BABIP will probably be up a bit, he will probably walk a few more than last year, and with a little regression in command, I also see the ground ball rate dropping a bit. He can still be a decent pitcher, I just wouldn't expect the same value he gave last year.
Chris Capuano was a decent pitcher in time, but he spent almost 3 years out of the show due to injury and ineffectiveness. He might have something left in the tank, but you don't feel comfortable saying it. Same thing goes for Chris Young, who has battled shoulder problems for 3 years. He walks a ton of guys, but he leverages that out when he is healthy by the fact he hides the ball well in his delivery, meaning decent contact is hard to come by. However, he hasn't been healthy in 3 years, and I imagine health will be an issue again. Pat Misch is a 30 year old journeyman who throws strikes and not much else, while Dillon Gee didn't inspire much confidence with his cameo last year. Top prospect Jennry Mejia could make an impact eventually, even after Jerry Manuel and Omar Minaya tried to stunt his growth by making him a little used reliever for the first 2 months of last year. Good times.
Bullpen: Hide the Fathers
Yep, K-Rod is back, and his adventures at the end of games are coming with him. Mets fans, lets all pray together that he doesn't finish (not save) 55 games this year. If he does, his 17.5 million (!) option will vest next year. Sweet dreams Mets fans. In all seriousness, he isn't a bad pitcher, but all of those resources can be put to much better use than on your closer. Especially when Bobby Parnell is your set up guy. Parnell struck out almost a batter an inning last year while touching 100 MPH on the radar gun multiple times. In addition to that, he doesn't walk people and posted an excellent 56.2% ground ball rate. Add it all up, and he overcame an unlucky .374 BABIP to post a 2.83 ERA out of the pen. And he is on his rookie contract. Omar, this is why you never spend ridiculous sums of money on a free agent closer, because young guys like this aren't that hard to find on the cheap.
After Parnell, it gets ugly. See if any of these names jump out: D.J. Carrasco, Taylor Buchholz, Taylor Tankersley, Manny Acosta, and Jason Isringhausen (I didn't know he was still alive either). Carrasco was decent for a couple of different teams last year, he should do fine. Buchholz and Tankersley were both former top prospects who are now looking to get their careers going again after injury setbacks. They had talent once, so the Mets are hoping to get lightning in a bottle. Braves fans like myself are all to familiar with Acosta's shenanigans, and Isringhausen hasn't been effective since 2007 either (I'm sensing a theme).
Outlook: A Lost Cause
The Mets have talent. The problem is staying healthy, and their track record makes it hard to be optimistic. Combining it with ownership problems and their ace on the shelf for at least half the year, and its hard imagining the Mets winning more than 75 games this year. There isn't much talent on the farm other than Mejia, so they won't be able to cover up shoddy pitching all along the pitching staff unless their lineup is completely healthy. Unfortunately for them, that won't happen, and this is going to be another lost year for the Mets.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Washington Nationals: One Step Forward, One Step Back
Our first NL East preview provides a look at the Washington Nationals. With a 69-93 record last year, the Nationals showed some improvement after 2 straight sub 60 win teams. However, that 10 win improvement doesn't bring much excitement because, well, improving by 10 games and still finishing 28 games out of first still means there is a LONG way to go. However, there are a few reasons to be excited for the future. Ryan Zimmerman is entrenched at 3rd, and he is one of the very best players in the league. Back to back #1s Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg bring hope of young studs to join the Z-Pack (and Strasburg would be there if not for injury of course, but I imagine he will be back strong next year). In addition, free agent signing Jayson Werth should be a very good player for the Nationals, despite them probably overpaying for his services. Will it be enough to get out of the cellar for the first time in 4 years?
Infield: A Cornerstone at the Hot Corner
First, we start with the happy part of this preview for Nats fans, which is the consoling fact that Ryan Zimmerman is really, really good. Zimmerman has provided triple slash lines of .292/.364/.525 in '09 and .307/.388/.510 in '10 while also providing fantastic defense at 3rd base. He's 26, and has provided 13.8 WAR over the 2 previous years. Yep, that'll work.
Unfortunately, his infield companions don't inspire tons of confidence. Young double play duo Ian Desmond and (likely starter at 2nd) Danny Espinosa inspire a bit of hope, but not much. Desmond has some talent at the dish despite lacking plate discipline, but he has to catch the ball better if he is going to be a solid starter in the majors. 34 (!) errors just won't cut it. If he catches it while providing a bit more plate discipline, he could provide decent value. Espinosa showed flashes in his brief September cameo last year, and he will help offset some of Desmond's shoddy glove work with some good leather of his own. Espinosa has hit at every level of the minor leagues and has plus power for a second baseman, but plate discipline could be his unraveling too, as he combines a low walk rate with a high strikeout rate, which obviously doesn't go very well together.
Adam LaRoche is the epitome of average at 1st base (1.7-2.6 WAR in each of the last 5 years), and 64 year old Pudge Rodriguez rounds out the infield. Pudge never took walks and has no power anymore, but thankfully, he is a catcher, which makes him the equal of many in the major league catching fraternity. Expect Wilson Ramos to steal at bats as the season goes on. Ramos was the key return in the Matt Capps trade, and while the jury is still out on him, he hit .285 in his minor league career and is 23 years old. Some upside is there, although how much is not really known at this point.
Outfield: Werth Provides More Punch
The outfield will be headlined by new right fielder Jayson Werth, who signed a lucrative 7 year deal that will pay him until he is 38. Whether he is providing value at the end of that contract is probably a long shot, but for now, he will provide a boost to the Nats outfield, providing some much needed plate discipline, power, and plus defense in right. However, I don't believe he will be providing a long beard anymore with his new team. Nevertheless, he will be sorely missed in Philadelphia.
The rest of the outfield is, well unsettled. Four outfielders are competing for 2 spots. Nyjer Morgan provided almost nothing last year (except a literal fighting spirit late in the year), Roger Bernadina didn't either, and new acquisition Rick Ankiel provides plenty of strikeouts. Oh, they spent 2.75 million on Ankiel, which would make some sense if you didn't have Bernadina making the league minimum while providing slightly more plate discipline and less power. Basically, they are the same guy, so why spend money on Ankiel? Anyway, Morgan had an awesome year in 2009, and a bounce back in BABIP should bring his average back to around .280, which if he combines it with good defense in center will make manager Jim Riggelman very happy.
The other contender for playing time is Mike Morse, and he is an intriguing player. He is a big man who won't provide much defensive value, but he can hit. He hit .289/.352/.519 last year in 293 plate appearances. If he gets anywhere close to that line in more at bats this year, he will be one of the more underrated players in the National League. Unfortunately for Nats fans, Rick Ankiel will probably platoon with Morse to start the year and be given the chance to fail. Once that happens, Morse should take the majority of at bats.
Starting Pitching: "Oh Stephen Where Art Thou?"
They are going to miss Strasburg. Of course, anyone would. A legit argument could be made after his 12 appearances last year that he would be the best pitcher in the league this year of he was healthy. His FIP (fielding indepedent pitching on an ERA scale) was 2.08, which is simply absurd (Halladay was a 3.01 last year, which is fantastic as well, but pales in comparaison). Unfortunately, he will have to wait til next year, which is very, very unfortunate for Nats fans. Livan Hernandez, Jason Marquis, and John Lannan anchor the rotation, which is all you need to know really. They will provide innings and consistent mediocre pitching if nothing else. Jordan Zimmerman does have some talent, and the former high draft pick should be much healthier after having Tommy John surgery in 2009. Before hurting his arm, he struck out a batter an inning while providing a K/BB ratio of better than 3 to 1. He should develop into a nice starter to plug in behind Strasburg for the future. The recently acquired Tom Gorzelanny will probably land the 5th starter's role. He can provide some strikeouts, but count on inconsistency as well.
Bullpen: Looks Better From the Back
Thankfully, the Nationals can count on their bullpen to protect any leads that they are provided this year. There are some capable arms in the bullpen, led by former 1st round pick Drew Storen. He should improve on an impressive rookie year, and he is the closer of now and in the future. The primary set up men will be Sean Burnett and Tyler Clippard. Burnett was fabulous last year, providing almost a strikeout an inning, 3 to 1 K/BB ratio, and a 55% ground ball rate. That's dealing. Clippard was lights out as well, as Riggelman was fortunate that his arm never fell off last year. He struck out 11 per 9 innings with a funky right handed delivery and a mid 90s fastball. Doug Slaten is a pretty good LOOGY, Todd Coffey will be decent in a middle relief role thanks to a high strikeout rate, and Craig Stammen will probably be the long man in the pen. He'd better pitch well, because he could be called on a decent amount following an inevitable implosion from the Nats' many hittable starters.
Outlook: Stuck in Neutral
Help is on the way with Strasburg back next year and Bryce Harper on the way as fast as he can, but don't expect more than about 70 wins from this group this year. Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth will be a load on offense, but they have quite a few people who could struggle to get on base, providing less run producing opportunities for them. Plus, runs will be plentiful against the Nats' starters, although the bullpen will help to offset that somewhat. In the end though, a competitive division won't do the Nationals any favors, and it will be another losing season in D.C.
Infield: A Cornerstone at the Hot Corner
First, we start with the happy part of this preview for Nats fans, which is the consoling fact that Ryan Zimmerman is really, really good. Zimmerman has provided triple slash lines of .292/.364/.525 in '09 and .307/.388/.510 in '10 while also providing fantastic defense at 3rd base. He's 26, and has provided 13.8 WAR over the 2 previous years. Yep, that'll work.
Unfortunately, his infield companions don't inspire tons of confidence. Young double play duo Ian Desmond and (likely starter at 2nd) Danny Espinosa inspire a bit of hope, but not much. Desmond has some talent at the dish despite lacking plate discipline, but he has to catch the ball better if he is going to be a solid starter in the majors. 34 (!) errors just won't cut it. If he catches it while providing a bit more plate discipline, he could provide decent value. Espinosa showed flashes in his brief September cameo last year, and he will help offset some of Desmond's shoddy glove work with some good leather of his own. Espinosa has hit at every level of the minor leagues and has plus power for a second baseman, but plate discipline could be his unraveling too, as he combines a low walk rate with a high strikeout rate, which obviously doesn't go very well together.
Adam LaRoche is the epitome of average at 1st base (1.7-2.6 WAR in each of the last 5 years), and 64 year old Pudge Rodriguez rounds out the infield. Pudge never took walks and has no power anymore, but thankfully, he is a catcher, which makes him the equal of many in the major league catching fraternity. Expect Wilson Ramos to steal at bats as the season goes on. Ramos was the key return in the Matt Capps trade, and while the jury is still out on him, he hit .285 in his minor league career and is 23 years old. Some upside is there, although how much is not really known at this point.
Outfield: Werth Provides More Punch
The outfield will be headlined by new right fielder Jayson Werth, who signed a lucrative 7 year deal that will pay him until he is 38. Whether he is providing value at the end of that contract is probably a long shot, but for now, he will provide a boost to the Nats outfield, providing some much needed plate discipline, power, and plus defense in right. However, I don't believe he will be providing a long beard anymore with his new team. Nevertheless, he will be sorely missed in Philadelphia.
The rest of the outfield is, well unsettled. Four outfielders are competing for 2 spots. Nyjer Morgan provided almost nothing last year (except a literal fighting spirit late in the year), Roger Bernadina didn't either, and new acquisition Rick Ankiel provides plenty of strikeouts. Oh, they spent 2.75 million on Ankiel, which would make some sense if you didn't have Bernadina making the league minimum while providing slightly more plate discipline and less power. Basically, they are the same guy, so why spend money on Ankiel? Anyway, Morgan had an awesome year in 2009, and a bounce back in BABIP should bring his average back to around .280, which if he combines it with good defense in center will make manager Jim Riggelman very happy.
The other contender for playing time is Mike Morse, and he is an intriguing player. He is a big man who won't provide much defensive value, but he can hit. He hit .289/.352/.519 last year in 293 plate appearances. If he gets anywhere close to that line in more at bats this year, he will be one of the more underrated players in the National League. Unfortunately for Nats fans, Rick Ankiel will probably platoon with Morse to start the year and be given the chance to fail. Once that happens, Morse should take the majority of at bats.
Starting Pitching: "Oh Stephen Where Art Thou?"
They are going to miss Strasburg. Of course, anyone would. A legit argument could be made after his 12 appearances last year that he would be the best pitcher in the league this year of he was healthy. His FIP (fielding indepedent pitching on an ERA scale) was 2.08, which is simply absurd (Halladay was a 3.01 last year, which is fantastic as well, but pales in comparaison). Unfortunately, he will have to wait til next year, which is very, very unfortunate for Nats fans. Livan Hernandez, Jason Marquis, and John Lannan anchor the rotation, which is all you need to know really. They will provide innings and consistent mediocre pitching if nothing else. Jordan Zimmerman does have some talent, and the former high draft pick should be much healthier after having Tommy John surgery in 2009. Before hurting his arm, he struck out a batter an inning while providing a K/BB ratio of better than 3 to 1. He should develop into a nice starter to plug in behind Strasburg for the future. The recently acquired Tom Gorzelanny will probably land the 5th starter's role. He can provide some strikeouts, but count on inconsistency as well.
Bullpen: Looks Better From the Back
Thankfully, the Nationals can count on their bullpen to protect any leads that they are provided this year. There are some capable arms in the bullpen, led by former 1st round pick Drew Storen. He should improve on an impressive rookie year, and he is the closer of now and in the future. The primary set up men will be Sean Burnett and Tyler Clippard. Burnett was fabulous last year, providing almost a strikeout an inning, 3 to 1 K/BB ratio, and a 55% ground ball rate. That's dealing. Clippard was lights out as well, as Riggelman was fortunate that his arm never fell off last year. He struck out 11 per 9 innings with a funky right handed delivery and a mid 90s fastball. Doug Slaten is a pretty good LOOGY, Todd Coffey will be decent in a middle relief role thanks to a high strikeout rate, and Craig Stammen will probably be the long man in the pen. He'd better pitch well, because he could be called on a decent amount following an inevitable implosion from the Nats' many hittable starters.
Outlook: Stuck in Neutral
Help is on the way with Strasburg back next year and Bryce Harper on the way as fast as he can, but don't expect more than about 70 wins from this group this year. Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth will be a load on offense, but they have quite a few people who could struggle to get on base, providing less run producing opportunities for them. Plus, runs will be plentiful against the Nats' starters, although the bullpen will help to offset that somewhat. In the end though, a competitive division won't do the Nationals any favors, and it will be another losing season in D.C.
Monday, March 14, 2011
NL East Season Previews Coming
Planning to start doing some season previews for each of the NL East teams, culminating with our hometown Atlanta Braves. Baseball season is less than three weeks away, so it is time to get it rolling.
On a side note, I'm sure we all saw that Jeff Francouer and Melky Cabrera both play for the Royals now. Good role models for all the young prospects coming through the number 1 rated farm system in baseball. You know, Jeff could teach them about plate discipline, and Melky can break down how to attack the post game spread...
But I digress, check back for those previews as they will be coming soon.
On a side note, I'm sure we all saw that Jeff Francouer and Melky Cabrera both play for the Royals now. Good role models for all the young prospects coming through the number 1 rated farm system in baseball. You know, Jeff could teach them about plate discipline, and Melky can break down how to attack the post game spread...
But I digress, check back for those previews as they will be coming soon.
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Jeff Teague Breaks Out
24 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 5 steals, 3 blocks, 11-17 shooting. Yes, this is the same guy who has garnered 10 DNP-CDs this season despite playing on a team that has been in desperate need of a perimeter defender all season. Ladies and gentleman, Larry Drew:
"It’s been kind of an up-and-down season for him. He’s played some minutes, he’s started a few games, and he’s gone stretches where he hasn’t played. But during that stretch I never stopped believing in that kid because I saw the package that he brings. He can make shots, he’s got speed, he’s got quickness, he can go from end to end. Defensively he can be a nuisance.”
I love basketball coaches. Here is a guy who can push the tempo for a team that thrives in transition and apply ball pressure to the opposing point guard for a team that desperately needed especially when Mike Bibby was around. Yet he never lost confidence in the guy, showing it by giving him 10 DNP-CDs. Fantastic.
Saturday, March 12, 2011
The Underappreciated Greatness of Andruw Jones
With a new Braves season just around the corner, I think its fitting to have a post about a subject that pops into my head from time to time. A couple of seemingly perennial questions always surround the Braves, those being what are we getting out of centerfield and 1st base this year. The question is still there at both positions, but young Freddie Freeman gives Braves fans hope that he can occupy that position competently for quite a few years. However, center field doesn't really have that ready made solution to give Braves fans hope. Ever since 2007, the Braves have had a revolving door in center, with Mark Kotsay (fragile, old), Jordan Schafer(injured), Nate McLouth (who knows), and Rick Ankiel (never could play) all trying and for the most part failing to competently man centerfield. Former All Star McLouth is showing positive signs this spring, but until we see it on the field during the season, its tough to say he inspires a whole lot of confidence in Braves fans.
Which brings me to the subject of today's post. There was a time not that long ago where Braves fans knew what they were getting in center every year. He loved chasing sliders (both the pitches and the mini-burgers), enjoyed frequenting strip clubs, struck out too much, and hit over .275 just twice in his 11 years with the Braves. All of these flaws didn't matter, the most underrated reason for the last 9 of 14 division titles was Andruw Jones.
I think a lot of Braves fans would be in agreement with me that we didn't realize just how good we had it until it was gone. Me personally, I don't think I realized it until 2 or 3 years later, since that's about how long the stench of Andruw's .222/.311/.413 stinker in 2007 took to clear the room. But then I happened upon Jones' FanGraphs page (by the way, I love FanGraphs. It's fantastic. I love it almost as much as Charlie Sheen enjoys porn. Well that might be a stretch, but its an awesome site for baseball fans). Jones in 2007, putting up the previously mentioned stinkbomb on offense while combining it with having visibly lost a step or 3 in centerfield, posted 3.8 Wins Above Replacement in 2007. Think about that for a minute. WAR is obviously not perfect, but its a pretty good tool to project how much overall impact a player has on his team. And it said that Andruw Jones, in a season he was a disaster according to most, was the 8th best centerfielder in the majors that year. Unreal.
For the most part, Andruw was an above average offensive centerfielder, and I think most people agreed with that sentiment. He struck out too much while trying to yank everything, but he did have great power combined with above average patience at the plate. He's had some off years at the plate, but his career wOBA stands at .353, which is well above the big league average. His .263/.342/.497 triple slash line with the Braves would more than satisfy most big leaguers.
But where he stands apart, which is completely obvious to anyone who's watched him, is on the defensive side. He won a gazillion Gold Gloves, but is it possible that he was underrated? From 2002-2007, Andruw had gained a little weight and, according to my eyes, looked like he had lost a step in the field. A slightly slower, slightly fatter Andruw Jones saved almost 3 times as many runs (120.4 according to FanGraphs) as the next closest center fielder in that time frame (Corey Patterson, 41.0). Indeed, Andruw had regressed, as the previous 5 years before 2002, he had saved 150 runs above what an average major league centerfielder would save. All told, it adds up to 270.4 runs saved in the field by Andruw in 11 years, or about 27 total wins. After adding in the corrector that a replacement level player would be about 20 runs worse than average over 600 plate appearances, the total tally of runs saved by Andruw over a replacement player JUST BY TAKING THE FIELD AND PLAYING DEFENSE totals 513 runs saved (270.4 fielding runs+ 242.6 replacement runs). That's over 51 wins of value (10 runs=win) from just his defense. Yo.
Leo Mazzone received tons of credit for turning some ordinary pitchers with the Braves into much better pitchers. He was deserving of much of it, especially with his emphasis on trusting the fastball, but I'd argue having Andruw Jones was his biggest advantage over other pitching coaches.
He always left us wanting more. He always looked as if he could have given more. However, lets now appreciate what he gave, which was a whole heck of a lot more than most people realize. Andruw Jones was really, really good playing for the Atlanta Braves.
Which brings me to the subject of today's post. There was a time not that long ago where Braves fans knew what they were getting in center every year. He loved chasing sliders (both the pitches and the mini-burgers), enjoyed frequenting strip clubs, struck out too much, and hit over .275 just twice in his 11 years with the Braves. All of these flaws didn't matter, the most underrated reason for the last 9 of 14 division titles was Andruw Jones.
I think a lot of Braves fans would be in agreement with me that we didn't realize just how good we had it until it was gone. Me personally, I don't think I realized it until 2 or 3 years later, since that's about how long the stench of Andruw's .222/.311/.413 stinker in 2007 took to clear the room. But then I happened upon Jones' FanGraphs page (by the way, I love FanGraphs. It's fantastic. I love it almost as much as Charlie Sheen enjoys porn. Well that might be a stretch, but its an awesome site for baseball fans). Jones in 2007, putting up the previously mentioned stinkbomb on offense while combining it with having visibly lost a step or 3 in centerfield, posted 3.8 Wins Above Replacement in 2007. Think about that for a minute. WAR is obviously not perfect, but its a pretty good tool to project how much overall impact a player has on his team. And it said that Andruw Jones, in a season he was a disaster according to most, was the 8th best centerfielder in the majors that year. Unreal.
For the most part, Andruw was an above average offensive centerfielder, and I think most people agreed with that sentiment. He struck out too much while trying to yank everything, but he did have great power combined with above average patience at the plate. He's had some off years at the plate, but his career wOBA stands at .353, which is well above the big league average. His .263/.342/.497 triple slash line with the Braves would more than satisfy most big leaguers.
But where he stands apart, which is completely obvious to anyone who's watched him, is on the defensive side. He won a gazillion Gold Gloves, but is it possible that he was underrated? From 2002-2007, Andruw had gained a little weight and, according to my eyes, looked like he had lost a step in the field. A slightly slower, slightly fatter Andruw Jones saved almost 3 times as many runs (120.4 according to FanGraphs) as the next closest center fielder in that time frame (Corey Patterson, 41.0). Indeed, Andruw had regressed, as the previous 5 years before 2002, he had saved 150 runs above what an average major league centerfielder would save. All told, it adds up to 270.4 runs saved in the field by Andruw in 11 years, or about 27 total wins. After adding in the corrector that a replacement level player would be about 20 runs worse than average over 600 plate appearances, the total tally of runs saved by Andruw over a replacement player JUST BY TAKING THE FIELD AND PLAYING DEFENSE totals 513 runs saved (270.4 fielding runs+ 242.6 replacement runs). That's over 51 wins of value (10 runs=win) from just his defense. Yo.
Leo Mazzone received tons of credit for turning some ordinary pitchers with the Braves into much better pitchers. He was deserving of much of it, especially with his emphasis on trusting the fastball, but I'd argue having Andruw Jones was his biggest advantage over other pitching coaches.
He always left us wanting more. He always looked as if he could have given more. However, lets now appreciate what he gave, which was a whole heck of a lot more than most people realize. Andruw Jones was really, really good playing for the Atlanta Braves.
Friday, March 11, 2011
Whither Zaza?
The only thing Larry Drew likes more than preaching about the importance of energy and effort is a veteran. Case in point is Josh Powell's endless opportunities to prove that he is not a deserving member of the rotation, as well as giving Mike Bibby limitless opportunities to prove that he should not be paired with Jamal Crawford in the same backcourt during the 4th quarter of games. Each experiment resulted in entirely predictable outcomes, while the chance to develop a young guy like Jeff Teague, a cost effective young option who is by no means a world beater, but could get better, has fallen on deaf ears for a franchise that doesn't have a lot of money to spend thanks to Joe Johnson's cap clogging contract.
Which brings us to Zaza Pachulia. Zaza is in the midst of his worst season in the NBA, and his play has not been up to his usual standards. However, as the one backup big on the Hawks who has a proven and recent track record of being a good rotation player, why have his minutes been so inconsistent? Could this be contributing to why he is in the middle of a career worst season? Even despite his poor play, he has easily outpaced his competition in PER, posting a 10.8 over the season. In the last 10 games before the Lakers game (where he logged 8 points and 10 boards in 22 minutes), his minutes have gone like this: 6, 5, 13, 0, 0, 21,22,19,6,1. In 43 minutes between the Portland and Denver games, he combined for 19 rebounds. After 19 fairly empty minutes against Chicago in the next game, he was penalized by playing 7 in the next 2 games. Keep in mind that Josh Smith didn't even play against OKC. We've already discussed the plethora of useless bigs on the Hawks roster, so that doesn't need to be discussed. So why then, must Larry Drew penalize his one proven useful big with inconsistent minutes because of one poor showing?
Zaza's isn't an unbelievable NBA player. Everybody knows this. However, he has proven to be a useful NBA basketball player over his career, in addition to being a wine connoisseur, the best dressed celebrity in Atlanta, a funny guy, and the possessor of horrible bacne (ok, maybe not a positive). Larry Drew needs to realize that maximizing the production out of his one proven backup big will be a key in maximizing what limited potential the Atlanta Hawks have to get better. Consistent minutes would be a start. The others have proven time and again that they can't play. Let's let the one guy who has shown he can play figure out his problems.
Which brings us to Zaza Pachulia. Zaza is in the midst of his worst season in the NBA, and his play has not been up to his usual standards. However, as the one backup big on the Hawks who has a proven and recent track record of being a good rotation player, why have his minutes been so inconsistent? Could this be contributing to why he is in the middle of a career worst season? Even despite his poor play, he has easily outpaced his competition in PER, posting a 10.8 over the season. In the last 10 games before the Lakers game (where he logged 8 points and 10 boards in 22 minutes), his minutes have gone like this: 6, 5, 13, 0, 0, 21,22,19,6,1. In 43 minutes between the Portland and Denver games, he combined for 19 rebounds. After 19 fairly empty minutes against Chicago in the next game, he was penalized by playing 7 in the next 2 games. Keep in mind that Josh Smith didn't even play against OKC. We've already discussed the plethora of useless bigs on the Hawks roster, so that doesn't need to be discussed. So why then, must Larry Drew penalize his one proven useful big with inconsistent minutes because of one poor showing?
Zaza's isn't an unbelievable NBA player. Everybody knows this. However, he has proven to be a useful NBA basketball player over his career, in addition to being a wine connoisseur, the best dressed celebrity in Atlanta, a funny guy, and the possessor of horrible bacne (ok, maybe not a positive). Larry Drew needs to realize that maximizing the production out of his one proven backup big will be a key in maximizing what limited potential the Atlanta Hawks have to get better. Consistent minutes would be a start. The others have proven time and again that they can't play. Let's let the one guy who has shown he can play figure out his problems.
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
The Florida Gators: Final Four Worthy?
After enjoying another weekend of college hoops and with tournament time approaching, I thought a few teams really stepped up and made a statement to the nation. The obvious first one is North Carolina, who despite failing at storming the court, really put on a clinic against a good Duke team. Kendall Marshall has really made a difference for them, as he has excellent instincts with the basketball in his hands. The second one I thought was Notre Dame. Winning away from the Joyce Center has been a difficult task for them traditionally, but getting another big win away from home without one of their leaders should give them a boost of confidence heading into the tournament. Backup Eric Atkins played some very good minutes off the bench, and he will be needed to defend quicker point guards if the Irish will do some damage in March. However, the team I feel flew most under the radar this weekend was the Florida Gators. An extremely efficient performance against a good Vanderbilt team piqued my interest, making me wonder whether this team could be good enough to reach the Final Four.
Ever since a solid recruiting class in 2004 turned into the best recruiting class of the current millenium, Billy Donovan has struggled down in Gainesville, missing out on the tournament 2 years in a row before squeaking into the Dance last year (only to be Jimmered out of the dance by the certain sweet-shooting guard based in Provo). There were high expectations this year coming in, and after struggling out of the gate and suffering a few high profile letdowns against weaker opposition, the Gators have really righted the ship, storming to a 13-3 conference record playing in the solid if unspectacular SEC East. Florida has now played the 7th toughest schedule in college basketball while racking up 10 RPI top 50 wins, which is tied for the most in the nation alongside Notre Dame. Clearly, Florida has proven they can beat some very good teams.
However, Florida had gone about winning many of their games in a down to the wire fashion, which can be a dangerous recipe once entering a single elimination tournament. They went 3-0 in overtime games, while also winning two other home games on the very last possession. One wrong bounce here or one missed call there can turn the tables in any game like that later on. Teams that win games can build up records that mask the actual strength of the team. The Gators served notice this week that it might be time to reconsider them, with a 27 point mauling of a solid Alabama team, while also (much to the dismay of the author) putting together an excellent display in dispatching a talented Vanderbilt team at Memorial Gym.
When evaluating a team for Final Four worthiness, I feel like that team has to have something that makes them stand out from the others. Whether that be having a great player, a great defense, etc, most teams that make the Final Four will have something that sets them apart from the others. Fortunately for Billy Donovan, the biggest strength that Florida has is their offensive rebounding, as they are 7th in the country in offensive rebound rate, rebounding 38.7% of their misses. Why is this fortunate you ask? Well, 9 out of the last 12 final four teams have ranked in the top 21 in the country in offensive rebounding rate. Alex Tyus, Vernon Macklin, and Chandler Parson are a tall, athletic frontline, and all have the ability to get rebounds out of their own areas, meaning that opponents have to hold their blockouts longer than usual. This also leads to less opposition transition opportunities, as opponents have to send 5 guys to the glass on every possession. Also, defense is generally tighter in the tournament along with a slower tempo, so the ability to create second shots is vital.
The second strength that Florida has is that they don't foul on defense. The Gators rank 2nd in the country in FT attempt per Field Goal attempt, meaning two things. First, Florida doesn't give away free points at the stripe, making their opponents earn everything they get in the run of play. Second, and perhaps more importantly, it keeps their best players on the floor. Florida shouldn't have to worry about losing anybody to foul trouble in an important NCAA tournament game.
Florida's third main strength lies in its balance, as every starter is a threat on offense capable of going for 20 or more on a given night. Plus, this allows them to attack defensive weaknesses better than most, as you can't hide anyone against them. Last night, Florida knew its advantage was against Vanderbilt's guards, and Erving Walker continually beat the 'Dores on the pick and roll, while also getting an assist from his backcourt mate Kenny Boynton, who got free from John Jenkins multiple times in the 2nd half for open jumpers, most of which he buried.
Aside from these strengths, there are still some red flags when looking at this team, two in particular that standout. The first is shooting, as Florida is only average shooting the 3 (34.7% as a team) and only have 1 guy who has shot more than 30 of them shooting over 37% (Parsons at 39.3%) Additionally, the one guy who can't help himself from shooting (we can call this the Josh Smith syndrome) is Kenny Boynton, who has launched a team leading 194 treys this year. A 3 game hot streak of 13-27 has bumped his percentage from 29.9% to 32.4%, meaning that the Gators should expect less than a point per shot from a Boynton three point attempt. Can't waste possessions in March, and one cold Boynton shooting night could (literally) shoot down Florida's tournament hopes.
Second, the balance we talked about earlier could hurt the Gators as well, as I still don't think they are entirely sure who the go to guy is on. Parsons thrives in the flow of the offense, but he isn't really a shot creator when things break down. Boynton can get a shot, but do you want that if he's in the midst of a 3-16 performance. Walker is a good little player, but unfortunately the emphasis needs to be placed on little. The 5-7 Walker can't be trusted to get a good shot in crunch time because he's too short.
Almost every Final Four team in recent memory had a clear cut go-to guy in crunch time. Last year, Duke had Nolan Smith, WVU had DaSean Butler, Butler had Gordon Hayward, and MSU had Kalin Lucas. The year before that, it was Lucas, Tyler Hansbrough, AJ Price, and Scottie Reynolds. 2008 (this final four had 10 future first round picks playing in it by the way, with 7 others who have already spent significant time in the league. my god) featured Hansbrough, Derrick Rose, Mario Chalmers, and Kevin Love (or maybe Darren Collison, but both being first round picks, each is a good option). Florida doesn't have that guy, and I am still of the opinion that it will be their downfall before reaching the Final Four.
Ever since a solid recruiting class in 2004 turned into the best recruiting class of the current millenium, Billy Donovan has struggled down in Gainesville, missing out on the tournament 2 years in a row before squeaking into the Dance last year (only to be Jimmered out of the dance by the certain sweet-shooting guard based in Provo). There were high expectations this year coming in, and after struggling out of the gate and suffering a few high profile letdowns against weaker opposition, the Gators have really righted the ship, storming to a 13-3 conference record playing in the solid if unspectacular SEC East. Florida has now played the 7th toughest schedule in college basketball while racking up 10 RPI top 50 wins, which is tied for the most in the nation alongside Notre Dame. Clearly, Florida has proven they can beat some very good teams.
However, Florida had gone about winning many of their games in a down to the wire fashion, which can be a dangerous recipe once entering a single elimination tournament. They went 3-0 in overtime games, while also winning two other home games on the very last possession. One wrong bounce here or one missed call there can turn the tables in any game like that later on. Teams that win games can build up records that mask the actual strength of the team. The Gators served notice this week that it might be time to reconsider them, with a 27 point mauling of a solid Alabama team, while also (much to the dismay of the author) putting together an excellent display in dispatching a talented Vanderbilt team at Memorial Gym.
When evaluating a team for Final Four worthiness, I feel like that team has to have something that makes them stand out from the others. Whether that be having a great player, a great defense, etc, most teams that make the Final Four will have something that sets them apart from the others. Fortunately for Billy Donovan, the biggest strength that Florida has is their offensive rebounding, as they are 7th in the country in offensive rebound rate, rebounding 38.7% of their misses. Why is this fortunate you ask? Well, 9 out of the last 12 final four teams have ranked in the top 21 in the country in offensive rebounding rate. Alex Tyus, Vernon Macklin, and Chandler Parson are a tall, athletic frontline, and all have the ability to get rebounds out of their own areas, meaning that opponents have to hold their blockouts longer than usual. This also leads to less opposition transition opportunities, as opponents have to send 5 guys to the glass on every possession. Also, defense is generally tighter in the tournament along with a slower tempo, so the ability to create second shots is vital.
The second strength that Florida has is that they don't foul on defense. The Gators rank 2nd in the country in FT attempt per Field Goal attempt, meaning two things. First, Florida doesn't give away free points at the stripe, making their opponents earn everything they get in the run of play. Second, and perhaps more importantly, it keeps their best players on the floor. Florida shouldn't have to worry about losing anybody to foul trouble in an important NCAA tournament game.
Florida's third main strength lies in its balance, as every starter is a threat on offense capable of going for 20 or more on a given night. Plus, this allows them to attack defensive weaknesses better than most, as you can't hide anyone against them. Last night, Florida knew its advantage was against Vanderbilt's guards, and Erving Walker continually beat the 'Dores on the pick and roll, while also getting an assist from his backcourt mate Kenny Boynton, who got free from John Jenkins multiple times in the 2nd half for open jumpers, most of which he buried.
Aside from these strengths, there are still some red flags when looking at this team, two in particular that standout. The first is shooting, as Florida is only average shooting the 3 (34.7% as a team) and only have 1 guy who has shot more than 30 of them shooting over 37% (Parsons at 39.3%) Additionally, the one guy who can't help himself from shooting (we can call this the Josh Smith syndrome) is Kenny Boynton, who has launched a team leading 194 treys this year. A 3 game hot streak of 13-27 has bumped his percentage from 29.9% to 32.4%, meaning that the Gators should expect less than a point per shot from a Boynton three point attempt. Can't waste possessions in March, and one cold Boynton shooting night could (literally) shoot down Florida's tournament hopes.
Second, the balance we talked about earlier could hurt the Gators as well, as I still don't think they are entirely sure who the go to guy is on. Parsons thrives in the flow of the offense, but he isn't really a shot creator when things break down. Boynton can get a shot, but do you want that if he's in the midst of a 3-16 performance. Walker is a good little player, but unfortunately the emphasis needs to be placed on little. The 5-7 Walker can't be trusted to get a good shot in crunch time because he's too short.
Almost every Final Four team in recent memory had a clear cut go-to guy in crunch time. Last year, Duke had Nolan Smith, WVU had DaSean Butler, Butler had Gordon Hayward, and MSU had Kalin Lucas. The year before that, it was Lucas, Tyler Hansbrough, AJ Price, and Scottie Reynolds. 2008 (this final four had 10 future first round picks playing in it by the way, with 7 others who have already spent significant time in the league. my god) featured Hansbrough, Derrick Rose, Mario Chalmers, and Kevin Love (or maybe Darren Collison, but both being first round picks, each is a good option). Florida doesn't have that guy, and I am still of the opinion that it will be their downfall before reaching the Final Four.
Monday, March 7, 2011
MLS Franchise Power Rankings: #17 Chivas USA
In our second entry of MLS Franchise Power Rankings we look at our #17 team.
17th Chivas USA.
Robin Fraser…well done.
This is how optimistic I am about Robin Fraser: his inclusion makes them not last. Despite being the most irrelevant club in MLS, the Goats have arguably the best up and coming coach in the US (Caleb Porter being his greatest challenger).
But before we get into Fraser, Vanney, the youth academy and Chivas’ roster, let’s look at the framework behind this roster.
The Men Who Stare at Goats
Well it’d be nice if there were more but there aren’t many who’d disagree the Goats have found themselves in a quandary.
Most know the story. The branding of the team “Chivas USA” failed to win over the Hispanic crowd, owner JorgeVergara cares much more about the Guadalajara franchise, the team will always be second fiddle to the star laden Galaxy, and they lack their own stadium.
All are big hurdles. Many discuss name changes, a new stadium, or even relocation. However, as none are planned as of yet let’s proceed with their current predicament.
Chivas USA’s best chance to build up their brand outside of blowing it up is based upon MLS’ success. Theoretically if MLS continues to grow, possibly wins a couple of CONCACAF Champions League and begins to stand up well against Mexican squads Vergara may begin to invest more in his Carson based squad…
…but Chivas USA is fighting an uphill battle. Only DC United is in a worse situation (but at least their brand is respected and can help them pull through their quandary…which will be discussed in their entry).
Corona Light
Yet this has all been accepted by Chivas USA. And they’ve moved on with great hires.
Nick Theslof has been hired as technical director. Theslof has been very successful helping develop the best youth system on the west coast over the past year (he has experience at PSV and Bayern Munich as well). Chivas USA plays the game right at the youth levels…they keep the ball on the ground and play players up when the talent begs it. They’re building these squads with players often overlooked by the pay-to-play club and are surely due for an influential performer or two (Daniel Castro, 18 year old striker is said to be due for an HG contract while the younger Christian Camarillo is said to be the system’s standout). Having a TD who has ties to the youth level ensures it will get the investment needed.
Theslof will continue to be influential all the way down to the youth teams, but Greg Vanney should step in and become the hands on director. Vanney was the figurehead for RSL-AZ (the only American team set up as a residential academy). His success from RSL should transition as Chivas USA looks to take advantage of their greatest resource, SoCal youth players.
And finally there is Fraser…formerly a great player, praised for his intelligence and leadership. More recently Fraser became the most praised assistant in the league after helping develop the vaunted RSL backline…
…and it was beautiful. Beckerman playing above Borchers and Olave…it was impregnable. Now Borchers and Olave are good players, but two of the three best defenders in MLS…I’m not sure (they were two of three nominees for MLS defender of the year). Rimando also picked up goalie of the year…
…and do you really think Jason Kreis is that great a coach?
Tossed Salad and Scrambled Eggs
Chivas finished 15th of 16th last year but, despite lacking great players, Chivas USA has laid the foundation for a average to good team starting next year (which could improve with a couple of star players).
The first thing Fraser has done is reconstruct the backline. Heath Pearce is added at left back and rookie Zarek Valentin at right (with the ability to play center back). Valentin looks like a potential all star, and Pearce already is one. Between them veteran Jimmy Conrad will lead the defense…which won’t help them for long but will allow for Fraser to transition.
Sitting above them are two players who should contribute for quite a few years. Blair Gavin is the type of player who will never dominate in the league but can be the two way midfielder for many years that eludes most teams. Zemanski, his former Akron mate, is a suitable partner who should benefit from an intelligent coach who can take advantage of his awareness.
Outside of these guys target forward Justin Braun garners the most attention…Braun is a good fit at striker for a team that will need to play long ball and score off set pieces as they build from the back forward.
Essentially, Fraser has the framework for the years going forward. With the right signings, some depth and ingenuity produced from the youth ranks, and some hits in the draft they could be contenders. People underrate the value of solid/good physical and intelligent players in the MLS (see my Toronto article). Chivas already has quite a few.
Vergara's Folly
I know I’ve spent my breaths trying to defend Chivas USA…but that’s simply because they’re so easy to deconstruct. They could have a good bit of success under Fraser – in fact, I suspect they will – the problem is they more than any other team will have a harder time taking advantage of it…(and if they have success Fraser will find a better job). As MLS grows one would think some of the teams struggling with image will be able to ride the wave out of their holes. But even with on the field success and MLS growth, Chivas USA will struggle to overcome their LA brethren and build a bigger following.
-John Parker, Stormin the Pitch
MLS Power Rankings: Who's Best Prepared for the Next Decade?
Like your local late night Chinese restaurant, we continue our grand opening with a wide-eyed variety of menu items.
Tonight, we start a way too long look at the state of each MLS franchise in a power ranking format. In this piece I’ll rank each MLS franchise (including the introductory PNW teams) based on their roster, coaching, administration, resources, youth academy and support to analyze who is in the best shape in the coming 5-7 years. This is content laden so lets get to it:
18. Toronto FC - Bouncing Checks Since 2006
Thank you Toronto. We were worried for a while.
When you were first introduced to the league with bombastic sellout crowds at your back, it looked like a Canadian team might finally become a powerhouse in an American league.
You had the sponsorship off the bat, local media truly interested in your success…and the makings of some genuine hooligan thuggery. The combination of resources and communal excitement seemed to be the foundation for sustainable success.
However, now the Reds are going into their sixth season still without a playoff appearance. The front office is in transition. The ownership is crumbling. The team has 14 players under contract for a 30 man roster…and the great eye has moved onto Portland, Salt Lake, Seattle and Vancouver.
The sellouts continue thanks to Toronto’s romantic relationship with self-pity and cheap beer (I only say it because I know you’ll like it)…but the team doesn’t seem to be accountable to the fans.
Winter Sets In
Toronto FC was certain to make their first playoff appearance in 2010 on the shoulders of Canadian stars Dwayne De Rosario and Julian De Guzman.
De Guzman’s shoulders were too thin for the MLS, and DeRo was more concerned about his back pocket.
So what will Toronto do? They’ll finally turn to a man who has cut his teeth in the MLS, a man who can find the diamond in the rough and whip his flailing roster into shape…
…Ruud Gullit?
No it’s Aron Winter, former Oranje teammate of Gullit who, like Ruud, lacks any knowledge of MLS infrastructure. At his back? German cock tease Juergen Klinsmann. On the field? Well, not much…no new players of note and a mass exodus of role players.
Hope for Spring?
No. Welcome to your future, Northern Chicago Cubs.
The academy is admittedly somewhat impressive. Kevin Aleman, Toronto academy star, looked very good for Canada in the CONCACAF U-17 tourney…and TFC already have multiple signings from the academy.
However, on the roster end of things, TFC remains too stubborn. The fact remains that the MLS is an American league where American role players are vital. Sam Cronin, Marvell Wynne and Chad Barrett are the types of players a team must have on their roster.
This is a franchise that needs to crawl before they walk. That means MLS veterans on and off the field who can eventually give way to bigger catches from opposing leagues.
Unfortunately TFC seems stuck in a early Chivas USA like mindset. Players from Europe are consistently over valued as are their administrators. With less of a connection to South America (the much more lucrative source for talent for MLS), TFC has to hold strong to their proven players and hit the mark consistently when they sign incoming talent (Pablo Vitti? Mista?).
The TFC academy and the local support are good pieces for Toronto. However it remains irrelevant as long as MLSE doesn’t adapt to the league they’ve joined. Paul Mariner is a start but that could be overshadowed by Klinsi and Winter’s names. As such Toronto will be wading in Dutch rejects until the fantastic support at BMO park begins to fade away.
Tonight, we start a way too long look at the state of each MLS franchise in a power ranking format. In this piece I’ll rank each MLS franchise (including the introductory PNW teams) based on their roster, coaching, administration, resources, youth academy and support to analyze who is in the best shape in the coming 5-7 years. This is content laden so lets get to it:
18. Toronto FC - Bouncing Checks Since 2006
Thank you Toronto. We were worried for a while.
When you were first introduced to the league with bombastic sellout crowds at your back, it looked like a Canadian team might finally become a powerhouse in an American league.
You had the sponsorship off the bat, local media truly interested in your success…and the makings of some genuine hooligan thuggery. The combination of resources and communal excitement seemed to be the foundation for sustainable success.
However, now the Reds are going into their sixth season still without a playoff appearance. The front office is in transition. The ownership is crumbling. The team has 14 players under contract for a 30 man roster…and the great eye has moved onto Portland, Salt Lake, Seattle and Vancouver.
The sellouts continue thanks to Toronto’s romantic relationship with self-pity and cheap beer (I only say it because I know you’ll like it)…but the team doesn’t seem to be accountable to the fans.
Winter Sets In
Toronto FC was certain to make their first playoff appearance in 2010 on the shoulders of Canadian stars Dwayne De Rosario and Julian De Guzman.
De Guzman’s shoulders were too thin for the MLS, and DeRo was more concerned about his back pocket.
So what will Toronto do? They’ll finally turn to a man who has cut his teeth in the MLS, a man who can find the diamond in the rough and whip his flailing roster into shape…
…Ruud Gullit?
No it’s Aron Winter, former Oranje teammate of Gullit who, like Ruud, lacks any knowledge of MLS infrastructure. At his back? German cock tease Juergen Klinsmann. On the field? Well, not much…no new players of note and a mass exodus of role players.
Hope for Spring?
No. Welcome to your future, Northern Chicago Cubs.
The academy is admittedly somewhat impressive. Kevin Aleman, Toronto academy star, looked very good for Canada in the CONCACAF U-17 tourney…and TFC already have multiple signings from the academy.
However, on the roster end of things, TFC remains too stubborn. The fact remains that the MLS is an American league where American role players are vital. Sam Cronin, Marvell Wynne and Chad Barrett are the types of players a team must have on their roster.
This is a franchise that needs to crawl before they walk. That means MLS veterans on and off the field who can eventually give way to bigger catches from opposing leagues.
Unfortunately TFC seems stuck in a early Chivas USA like mindset. Players from Europe are consistently over valued as are their administrators. With less of a connection to South America (the much more lucrative source for talent for MLS), TFC has to hold strong to their proven players and hit the mark consistently when they sign incoming talent (Pablo Vitti? Mista?).
The TFC academy and the local support are good pieces for Toronto. However it remains irrelevant as long as MLSE doesn’t adapt to the league they’ve joined. Paul Mariner is a start but that could be overshadowed by Klinsi and Winter’s names. As such Toronto will be wading in Dutch rejects until the fantastic support at BMO park begins to fade away.
Teheran Makes His Debut
Get excited Braves fans. The potential next great Braves starter has just made another step towards the majors. Everyone's favorite Braves' blogger and beat writer David O'Brien reported that Julio Teheran made his spring debut this afternoon, pitching a scoreless inning, including 2 hits and 1 strikeout. Teheran, who is rated as the top pitching prospect in MLB by many outlets, throws "easy gas" in the mid-90s while also possessing a plus changeup. His mechanics are reportedly very good, and his command has been excellent all throughout the minors. Last year, he posted a 3.5/1 strikeout to walk ratio, struck out over 10 batters per 9 innings, and only gave up 9 home runs in 142 innings in the minor leagues. These 3 factors are probably the best predictors of success for a minor league starters, and Teheran passes all of these with flying colors. Plus, he's only 20. Lots to like.
It will be interesting to watch how Teheran does this year, probably starting the year at double A. Judging by how he pitched last year, he should continue to put up fantastic numbers, but most interesting to me is whether he features a slider this year or not. Braves' policy prohibits minor leaguers below double A from throwing sliders, so almost all of Teheran's work has come without the use of a slider. He is in possession of a decent curveball already, grading out as average at the moment with the potential to be above average. It will be interesting to watch, because Tommy Hanson shot up prospect rankings once he reached double A and started showing his slider. He went from a very good prospect to an awesome one that summer. Teheran has already proven he's an awesome prospect, but with a hard slider to complement a great fastball and changeup, it could make him even better. Something to watch for.
Looking ahead to the future of the Braves, the Braves already have young studs Hanson (24) and Jason Heyward (21) producing in the majors, Freddie Freeman (21) hopefully producing this year, and Teheran waiting in the wings. Hanson (4.3) and Heyward (5) racked up 9.3 WAR last year, and each have multiple years before reaching their primes. Teheran certainly has the potential to be a 5+ WAR player in a couple of years, and Freeman should be a solid contributor. And perhaps most importantly, these guys are all under team control for the next 5 years, which means they won't be being paid even close to what they will be worth on the open market. The Braves really have a strong and exciting nucleus (without even mentioning Brian McCann, Martin Prado, Johnny Venters, Craig Kimbrel, and Kris Medlen in 2012, in addition to some more excellent pitching prospects on the way) to potentially build around, and the potential is there for a contender to be in place for the forseeable future. Obviously, much needs to happen to tap that potential, but the Braves have laid the foundation. With all of this potential, its easy to see why Braves fans are as excited as they have been in a long time for an upcoming baseball season.
It will be interesting to watch how Teheran does this year, probably starting the year at double A. Judging by how he pitched last year, he should continue to put up fantastic numbers, but most interesting to me is whether he features a slider this year or not. Braves' policy prohibits minor leaguers below double A from throwing sliders, so almost all of Teheran's work has come without the use of a slider. He is in possession of a decent curveball already, grading out as average at the moment with the potential to be above average. It will be interesting to watch, because Tommy Hanson shot up prospect rankings once he reached double A and started showing his slider. He went from a very good prospect to an awesome one that summer. Teheran has already proven he's an awesome prospect, but with a hard slider to complement a great fastball and changeup, it could make him even better. Something to watch for.
Looking ahead to the future of the Braves, the Braves already have young studs Hanson (24) and Jason Heyward (21) producing in the majors, Freddie Freeman (21) hopefully producing this year, and Teheran waiting in the wings. Hanson (4.3) and Heyward (5) racked up 9.3 WAR last year, and each have multiple years before reaching their primes. Teheran certainly has the potential to be a 5+ WAR player in a couple of years, and Freeman should be a solid contributor. And perhaps most importantly, these guys are all under team control for the next 5 years, which means they won't be being paid even close to what they will be worth on the open market. The Braves really have a strong and exciting nucleus (without even mentioning Brian McCann, Martin Prado, Johnny Venters, Craig Kimbrel, and Kris Medlen in 2012, in addition to some more excellent pitching prospects on the way) to potentially build around, and the potential is there for a contender to be in place for the forseeable future. Obviously, much needs to happen to tap that potential, but the Braves have laid the foundation. With all of this potential, its easy to see why Braves fans are as excited as they have been in a long time for an upcoming baseball season.
FC Dallas sign 18 Year Old Fabian Castillo
This is great news for soccer fans in the United States. Castillo, an 18 year old Columbian striker, wowed onlookers at the recent November U-20 showcase in Atlanta, featuring squads from the United States and Mexico. Witnesses of the event (including this blogger) agreed almost in unison that Castillo was the best player in this tournament. With blinding pace and ball skills to match, Castillo, who was being courted by many European clubs including Portuguese power Benfica, should be a big hit in MLS.
Plus, Castillo will benefit from playing with one of MLS' best playmakers and fellow Columbian David Ferreira, who is the reigning MLS MVP. Playing with Ferreira should help smooth the transition for Castillo, both with assimilating to every day life in the United States as well as getting goal scoring chances. Great and exciting signing for the MLS runners up.
Plus, Castillo will benefit from playing with one of MLS' best playmakers and fellow Columbian David Ferreira, who is the reigning MLS MVP. Playing with Ferreira should help smooth the transition for Castillo, both with assimilating to every day life in the United States as well as getting goal scoring chances. Great and exciting signing for the MLS runners up.
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