Dan Uggla has been beyond awful this season, which has been documented on this blog multiple times. However, with the Braves heading to Seattle for a series this week, we can focus on someone who has been significantly worse than Dan Uggla this season. Chone Figgins signed a 4 year deal for over 10 million a season with the Seattle Mariners after an extraordinary final season with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in 2009, one that culminated in him putting up 6.9 WAR. Figgins was an excellent player on all fronts that season, posting a .395 on base percentage, playing terrific defense at 3rd base, and stealing 42 bases. He had combined for 7.2 WAR in the 2 seasons before that one, so he had a pretty good track record of being a really solid player to begin with, and posting fantastic numbers in a contract year led to him getting paid handsomely. His combination of speed, batting eye, and defense made him an extremely attractive option for Seattle's innovative run prevention front office strategy.
However, that contract has blown up in their faces, as Figgins combined a drop in walk rate with some horrific defense at a new position (2nd base) to produce just 1.1 WAR last year, and this year he has taken his suckiness to a whole new level. His batting eye, once well above average, has completely abandoned him, as his walk rate is just 5.9% this year, down from 10.5% in 2010. Considering Figgins has never had any power, his offensive value is tied up in how much he gets on base. He's not doing it this year, with a ghastly .235 OBP, and that makes him a complete liability in every sense of the word.
Does this drop in walk rate sound similar to an underachieving hitter with the Braves? Want to know some more similarities? Figgins' ground ball rate is the highest of his career this year, just like Dan Uggla. Its not the worst thing in the world for Figgins to hit the ball on the ground, as he doesn't have any power and can use his legs to get on base. However, that ground ball rate has gone up at the expense of his line drive rate. Figgins has always hit a lot of line drives, and his 18.5% line drive rate would represent the worst of his career by over 2 full points. Grounders are not a terrible thing for a hitter like Figgins, unless they come at the expense of line drives. Unfortunately, that is exactly what has happen for Chone.
But wait, there is more. Related to the batting eye problems mentioned earlier, Figgins is swinging at over 25% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone to him. In 2009, it was just 15%, and it was just over 20% last year. Swinging at bad pitches is not a recipe for success, but it is a death sentence when combined with this next factoid. Chone Figgins' contact rate on balls outside the strike zone is an ungodly 84.5% this season, far and away the highest mark of his career. Putting the two together, swinging at bad pitches and making contact with most of them is just not a way to succeed, as it most likely is going to lead to weakly hit grounders for easy outs (unless you are Vlad Guererro in his prime).
These changes in approach has led to a triple slash line of .188/.235/.252, good for -1.2 WAR on the season even after factoring in a relative rebound in his defensive performance this year. For comparison's sake, Dan Uggla sits at .180/.247/.339 and -.4 WAR. When your numbers this season are without question worse than Dan Uggla's, you have some problems. Figgins' BABIP will rise a bit from its current .213 level to help his batting average at some point, but his contract is really looking like a sunk cost for the Mariners, especially since Figgins is already 33 years old. If Figgins can get back to taking more pitches, it would really help the Mariners in their fight for the postseason, as they need all the help they can get on offense, even after top prospect Dustin Ackley's promotion.
Sunday, June 26, 2011
Monday, June 20, 2011
Thoughts on the US Gold Cup Run
I don't write a whole lot about soccer to this point, despite loving the game, as I really don't follow any one team or groups of teams to write a decent opinion or observation on any of it. However, US soccer is different, as I've been following the Gold Cup very closely and definitely have some thoughts. The Gold Cup started decently enough with a win over Canada, but disaster struck with a loss to Panama, followed by a 1-0 win over Guadeloupe where some things improved but finishing was lacking (or Dempsey was lacking, both would work). However, I think some things have been confirmed and others have been learned at this point, after a their best effort of the Gold Cup against Jamaica on Sunday:
The US Defense is Better with Carlos Bocanegra in Central Defense-
The difference has been noticeable in my opinion, as things seem much more collected and calm with the captain organizing things in the center. Tim Ream isn't a bad player, especially because he brings something to the table that most of the other center backs in the pool don't (above average ball skills and distribution), but he has been just ok for NYRB this season and isn't ready to be a starter at the national level at this point. He will get better, but it was not ideal to pair him with Clarence Goodson, who is fairly inexperienced at the international level as well. The two had some rough moments, and things just seemed to be a little off in the back with that partnership. However, Boca has stablized the central defense with his experienced presence, and the US is better for it.
In addition, it has allowed the U.S. to get more on the left flank, as Boca just isn't much of an attacking option. Moving him centrally has allowed Eric Lichaj to get on the field, and he has impressed to date. With good speed and a willingness to take on defenders, Lichaj has made some good runs forward to supplement the attack, and defense has been good as well, as he has a strong lower body and a willingness to mix it up. Is he the answer at left back? As a natural right back and right footer, I'm skeptical, but I'm always appreciative when a US left back gives back to back good performances in a US jersey, and Lichaj's done that. Well done by him.
Tim Howard is Really Good-
But we knew that already.
The Team is Still Lacking In Striking Options-
This isn't a surprise by any means, but when you are having to go to an 18 year old 11 minutes into a game to lead the line as a single striker, there are some problems at the position. Agudelo did really well considering the circumstances and is a very talented player, but he isn't ready for that responsibility. His ability to run at players and his speed definitely bring something to the table, but the hold up play necessary from a single striker will probably be lacking from an option as young as Agudelo going forward. However, because of the lack of options, Bob Bradley doesn't have a whole lot of choices. I will be interested to see what Bradley does in Wednesday's semifinal against Panama, whether he keeps Kljestan in the lineup and deploys Dempsey out wide, or if he stick with Bedoya and deploys Dempsey centrally. Which leads to my next observation...
Alejandro Bedoya Brings Something Different-
And that change was very positive in my opinion. The inclusion of winger helped out the Americans, as there was a little more space in the middle with Bedoya willing to stay wide. Sometimes the center of the pitch can get clustered for the U.S., as both Dempsey and Donovan like to float to the center in search of the ball. Bedoya's willingness to stay wide gave the U.S. a bit more room centrally, and he did a nice job of moving off the ball and running tirelessly. More chances were created in the first half than at any point during the Gold Cup, and I think Bedoya contributed to that. The Jamaican defense had to account for him at all times because of his tireless running, and because his skills bring something of a contrast to what the U.S. already has, I think he should get the start on the right Wednesday night.
I'm Fascinated by the Possibility of Jermaine Jones against Mexico-
Jermaine has played his best soccer in a US jersey in this tournament, which culminated in his best game yesterday against Jamaica. I figured that if healthy, he was the best option to play alongside Michael Bradley, considering his experience playing at the highest level in Europe. He is still prone to dumb yellow cards and anger issues in general (and always will be), but he brings a range of passing that the United States hasn't had in the central midfield in a long time. Plus, he is a fierce tackler, and people are always aware of him in the center of the park. I would think that one of the best ways to take Mexico out of their game is to have a big, strong, snarling dog in the center of the field, which is exactly what Jermaine Jones is. If that matchup comes to fruition, his physical nature will be a huge key in keeping the smaller, skillful Mexican midfielders off their game. I'm very intrigued by that possibility.
The US Will Go as Clint Dempsey Goes-
The one man that is consistently in the middle of everything for the US is Clint Dempsey, and I can't help but think he is the key to a Gold Cup Championship. He hasn't always played well in the tournament, but he has consistently been involved. Against Jamaica, he had 6 shots on goal as opposed to everyone else having no more than one. Clint's time at Fulham has improved his ability to find scoring chances, and he is the only player at this point who consistently finds those opportunities, especially with Landon Donovan not being at his best in this tournament. The only way for the United States to play at their highest level is for Dempsey to be the central attacking figure, and his ability to consistently be involved will go along way in determining the US' fate in this tournament. Floating wide, cutting inside, playing alongside Agudelo or Altidore up top, it doesn't matter where he is on the field. The only thing that does is whether he is involved and impactful.
The US Defense is Better with Carlos Bocanegra in Central Defense-
The difference has been noticeable in my opinion, as things seem much more collected and calm with the captain organizing things in the center. Tim Ream isn't a bad player, especially because he brings something to the table that most of the other center backs in the pool don't (above average ball skills and distribution), but he has been just ok for NYRB this season and isn't ready to be a starter at the national level at this point. He will get better, but it was not ideal to pair him with Clarence Goodson, who is fairly inexperienced at the international level as well. The two had some rough moments, and things just seemed to be a little off in the back with that partnership. However, Boca has stablized the central defense with his experienced presence, and the US is better for it.
In addition, it has allowed the U.S. to get more on the left flank, as Boca just isn't much of an attacking option. Moving him centrally has allowed Eric Lichaj to get on the field, and he has impressed to date. With good speed and a willingness to take on defenders, Lichaj has made some good runs forward to supplement the attack, and defense has been good as well, as he has a strong lower body and a willingness to mix it up. Is he the answer at left back? As a natural right back and right footer, I'm skeptical, but I'm always appreciative when a US left back gives back to back good performances in a US jersey, and Lichaj's done that. Well done by him.
Tim Howard is Really Good-
But we knew that already.
The Team is Still Lacking In Striking Options-
This isn't a surprise by any means, but when you are having to go to an 18 year old 11 minutes into a game to lead the line as a single striker, there are some problems at the position. Agudelo did really well considering the circumstances and is a very talented player, but he isn't ready for that responsibility. His ability to run at players and his speed definitely bring something to the table, but the hold up play necessary from a single striker will probably be lacking from an option as young as Agudelo going forward. However, because of the lack of options, Bob Bradley doesn't have a whole lot of choices. I will be interested to see what Bradley does in Wednesday's semifinal against Panama, whether he keeps Kljestan in the lineup and deploys Dempsey out wide, or if he stick with Bedoya and deploys Dempsey centrally. Which leads to my next observation...
Alejandro Bedoya Brings Something Different-
And that change was very positive in my opinion. The inclusion of winger helped out the Americans, as there was a little more space in the middle with Bedoya willing to stay wide. Sometimes the center of the pitch can get clustered for the U.S., as both Dempsey and Donovan like to float to the center in search of the ball. Bedoya's willingness to stay wide gave the U.S. a bit more room centrally, and he did a nice job of moving off the ball and running tirelessly. More chances were created in the first half than at any point during the Gold Cup, and I think Bedoya contributed to that. The Jamaican defense had to account for him at all times because of his tireless running, and because his skills bring something of a contrast to what the U.S. already has, I think he should get the start on the right Wednesday night.
I'm Fascinated by the Possibility of Jermaine Jones against Mexico-
Jermaine has played his best soccer in a US jersey in this tournament, which culminated in his best game yesterday against Jamaica. I figured that if healthy, he was the best option to play alongside Michael Bradley, considering his experience playing at the highest level in Europe. He is still prone to dumb yellow cards and anger issues in general (and always will be), but he brings a range of passing that the United States hasn't had in the central midfield in a long time. Plus, he is a fierce tackler, and people are always aware of him in the center of the park. I would think that one of the best ways to take Mexico out of their game is to have a big, strong, snarling dog in the center of the field, which is exactly what Jermaine Jones is. If that matchup comes to fruition, his physical nature will be a huge key in keeping the smaller, skillful Mexican midfielders off their game. I'm very intrigued by that possibility.
The US Will Go as Clint Dempsey Goes-
The one man that is consistently in the middle of everything for the US is Clint Dempsey, and I can't help but think he is the key to a Gold Cup Championship. He hasn't always played well in the tournament, but he has consistently been involved. Against Jamaica, he had 6 shots on goal as opposed to everyone else having no more than one. Clint's time at Fulham has improved his ability to find scoring chances, and he is the only player at this point who consistently finds those opportunities, especially with Landon Donovan not being at his best in this tournament. The only way for the United States to play at their highest level is for Dempsey to be the central attacking figure, and his ability to consistently be involved will go along way in determining the US' fate in this tournament. Floating wide, cutting inside, playing alongside Agudelo or Altidore up top, it doesn't matter where he is on the field. The only thing that does is whether he is involved and impactful.
Friday, June 17, 2011
Scott Proctor is Who We Thought He Was
And that is a terrible pitcher. He's been that way pretty much his entire career, as he seems to be living off the fact that he had one decent year for the Yankees in 2006. However, because he was one of the only decent pitchers in that bullpen not named Mariano Rivera, Joe Torre went back to him over and over again, piling up 102 innings that season. After riding him again for 83 more appearances (where his 3.65 ERA masked what a bad year he had that season, as he benefited from some seriously good fortune), Proctor predictably got hurt and missed part of 2009 and all of 2010. Since coming back from injury, he has continued to be terrible, which was predictable because that was exactly what he was before he got hurt. To show my point, Proctor has posted an FIP below 4.97 just once in his career, which was that 2006 season mentioned above. His career FIP is 4.88, his career GB rate is just 31.6%, and his career BB rate is an extremely mediocre 4.07 against a fairly average 7.65 K rate. Basically, these numbers indicate that Scott Proctor is a very poor man's Scott Linebrink, which isn't really a good thing.
Meanwhile, Fredi Gonzalez keeps going back to Scott Proctor, as he must see that shiny 2.38 ERA and all that veteran experience from his time with the Yankees. Proctor was called upon in a high leverage situation last night and failed miserably, giving up a game tying 3 run homer to Scott Hairston, who is the epitome of average. With the Braves struggling to score runs, it is inevitable that everyone in the bullpen is going to pitch in some high leverage situations, including the Scott Proctor. However, the frustrating thing about that is a much better option appears to be in AAA.
We have seen Cory Gearrin some during this baseball season, and it really is time that we see more. Gearrin sports a solid 3.60 ERA in his 13 appearances (15 innings), while also sporting some excellent peripheral numbers to go along with that. Gearrin's K rate in a limited major league sample size is an outstanding 11.4 per 9 innings, which when combined with a 3.6 BB rate leads to a very good 3.17 K/BB ratio. In addition, his ground ball rate was almost 62 %. What's not to like here? Fredi must not have liked it when he gave up a couple of runs to help blow a lead to the San Diego Padres. I don't really know. But it is clear to me that the Braves need another right handed reliever in their pen, particularly one who can keep the ball on the ground. When that guy could be in the organization already, well, you can see why I'm frustrated.
Cory Gearrin may end up not being the answer. However, judging by the way he has pitched this season in limited appearances, he deserves more chances, especially when one right handed pitcher in the bullpen already isn't any good. Basically, Proctor needs to be stopped before he costs the Braves a valuable win, because it is coming if he stays with this team. Everybody knows it, except Fredi Gonzalez and Frank Wren. Damn it.
Meanwhile, Fredi Gonzalez keeps going back to Scott Proctor, as he must see that shiny 2.38 ERA and all that veteran experience from his time with the Yankees. Proctor was called upon in a high leverage situation last night and failed miserably, giving up a game tying 3 run homer to Scott Hairston, who is the epitome of average. With the Braves struggling to score runs, it is inevitable that everyone in the bullpen is going to pitch in some high leverage situations, including the Scott Proctor. However, the frustrating thing about that is a much better option appears to be in AAA.
We have seen Cory Gearrin some during this baseball season, and it really is time that we see more. Gearrin sports a solid 3.60 ERA in his 13 appearances (15 innings), while also sporting some excellent peripheral numbers to go along with that. Gearrin's K rate in a limited major league sample size is an outstanding 11.4 per 9 innings, which when combined with a 3.6 BB rate leads to a very good 3.17 K/BB ratio. In addition, his ground ball rate was almost 62 %. What's not to like here? Fredi must not have liked it when he gave up a couple of runs to help blow a lead to the San Diego Padres. I don't really know. But it is clear to me that the Braves need another right handed reliever in their pen, particularly one who can keep the ball on the ground. When that guy could be in the organization already, well, you can see why I'm frustrated.
Cory Gearrin may end up not being the answer. However, judging by the way he has pitched this season in limited appearances, he deserves more chances, especially when one right handed pitcher in the bullpen already isn't any good. Basically, Proctor needs to be stopped before he costs the Braves a valuable win, because it is coming if he stays with this team. Everybody knows it, except Fredi Gonzalez and Frank Wren. Damn it.
Sunday, June 12, 2011
Eric O'Flaherty Steps Up His Game
Ever since being acquired from the Seattle Mariners for peanuts before the 2009 season, Eric O'Flaherty has been a productive and reliable reliever for the Atlanta Braves. Mainly relied on to get left handers out, he also could be called upon to pitch the 7th inning when situations called for it, helping bridge the gap to guys like Billy Wagner, Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, and others. His role has changed just a bit this year, as the absence of Peter Moylan due to injury has moved him up the pecking order, being Fredi Gonzalez's 1B set up man, to Jonny Venters 1A. Because of Moylan's injury and the Braves' anemic offense, Gonzalez has had no choice but to ride the trio of O'Flaherty, Venters, and Kimbrel like rented mules, and thankfully, the least heralded of the trio has stepped up to the task.
O'Flaherty's ERA stands at a tidy 1.47 at the moment, and although that doesn't reflect his true talent level, he has made some improvements to his game. The first item that stands out is his improved command, as O'Flaherty's K rate currently sits at a career high 8.22 per nine innings, while his BB rate also stands at an all time low 2.64. The improved command has helped O'Flaherty get out of some jams, both of his doing and others. Also key is his ability to keep the ball on the ground, which is a common trait of most Atlanta pitchers these days. 53% of O'Flaherty's batted balls are on the ground, helping to suppress the chances for extra base hits (as evidenced by the .330 slugging percentage for opposing hitters against him), as well as inducing double play grounders. GB rates over 50% combined with a K/BB ratio over 3 to 1 is a recipe for success, and O'Flaherty's ability to combine those two skills has been a boost to the Braves' pen.
The second thing that has changed is O'Flaherty's pitch selection, one in which he is dialing up the fastball over 70% of the time. The fastball has always been his best pitch, as he has solid command to both sides of the plate with it, while also getting good sink. The fact that he is using it more is only helping him, as it is keeping his walks down while also improving the effectiveness of his slider, which he doesn't have to show as much anymore. Despite averaging 91.6 on the radar gun with his fastball, O'Flaherty has a deceptive delivery in which he hides the ball well, which helps his fastball appear a little quicker to a hitter. Since he has excellent fastball command, it makes sense to use the pitch more, and he has used it with great results this season.
O'Flaherty's continued effectiveness will be a key for the Braves, especially if they continue to struggle scoring runs. Having 3 lights out relievers at the back of the pen is one of the Braves' biggest advantages over the rest of the league, and O'Flaherty's use of his fastball has been a key reason why. If the Braves' can find a reliable right handed reliever other than Kimbrel, that advantage will only increase.
O'Flaherty's ERA stands at a tidy 1.47 at the moment, and although that doesn't reflect his true talent level, he has made some improvements to his game. The first item that stands out is his improved command, as O'Flaherty's K rate currently sits at a career high 8.22 per nine innings, while his BB rate also stands at an all time low 2.64. The improved command has helped O'Flaherty get out of some jams, both of his doing and others. Also key is his ability to keep the ball on the ground, which is a common trait of most Atlanta pitchers these days. 53% of O'Flaherty's batted balls are on the ground, helping to suppress the chances for extra base hits (as evidenced by the .330 slugging percentage for opposing hitters against him), as well as inducing double play grounders. GB rates over 50% combined with a K/BB ratio over 3 to 1 is a recipe for success, and O'Flaherty's ability to combine those two skills has been a boost to the Braves' pen.
The second thing that has changed is O'Flaherty's pitch selection, one in which he is dialing up the fastball over 70% of the time. The fastball has always been his best pitch, as he has solid command to both sides of the plate with it, while also getting good sink. The fact that he is using it more is only helping him, as it is keeping his walks down while also improving the effectiveness of his slider, which he doesn't have to show as much anymore. Despite averaging 91.6 on the radar gun with his fastball, O'Flaherty has a deceptive delivery in which he hides the ball well, which helps his fastball appear a little quicker to a hitter. Since he has excellent fastball command, it makes sense to use the pitch more, and he has used it with great results this season.
O'Flaherty's continued effectiveness will be a key for the Braves, especially if they continue to struggle scoring runs. Having 3 lights out relievers at the back of the pen is one of the Braves' biggest advantages over the rest of the league, and O'Flaherty's use of his fastball has been a key reason why. If the Braves' can find a reliable right handed reliever other than Kimbrel, that advantage will only increase.
Monday, June 6, 2011
2011 Dan Uggla makes 2010 Nate McLouth Feel Good About Himself
Dan Uggla has been off the charts bad this year. In fact, he has been so bad that he has pretty much made me forget how bad Nate McLouth was last year, when the Braves key acquisition "hit" .190/.297/.322. This got me thinking, and this question is quite painful for Braves' fans, but it needs to be asked. And that question is, has Dan Uggla been worse this year than Nate McLouth was last year? I think these guys can be compared well, as each were excellent offensive players before joining the Braves, before seeing a sudden drop in production for mysterious reasons.
Uggla's disastrous May and awful start to June has made this a race, and it may be one that is Uggla is winn.., er, losing. Let's start with McLouth and recap where he was before his implosion in 2010. In his 3 prior years combined, McLouth had put up an excellent triple slash of .265/.359/.467, while also making an all star appearance in 2008 on the back of a whopping 76 extra base hits (and also being the only good player on the Pirates, but we won't count against him for that). McLouth produced 3.9 WAR in that season despite some disastrous defense, and overall in those 3 years produced 8.9 WAR in basically 2 and a half seasons (he made just 382 plate appearances for the Pirates in 2007). Nate was a very good player, and one who was going to help the Braves add some punch to an outfield that needed some.
Then, 2010 happened, and I don't think anyone can really tell you what is to blame for it. McLouth's triple slash from 2010 is listed above, and that was good enough for a paltry .283 wOBA. I have a feeling that McLouth's collapse in his age 28 season is one of the worst one in recent memory, especially that age 28 is supposed to be one of a player's prime seasons, when he is playing at his peak output. To collapse of that magnitude is something that you don't see terribly often, and one that left me and many other observers out of ideas as to what was going on. To his credit, McLouth never shied away from the criticism and owned up to it, and he has at least rebounded to be a little bit above replacement level this year, which is a lot better than his 2010 season was. Anything more that they get from him will be gravy until they can get to the end of this season and buy out his contract, as the Braves can't afford to invest any more in a player that just hasn't worked out in a Braves' uniform for one reason or another.
Which brings us to Uggla, who had been one of the premier 2nd baseman in baseball over the past 5 years, even despite his defensive shortcomings. He was such a good hitter in comparison to his peers at the position that his defense didn't really matter that much. His triple slash from 2008-2010 was an outstanding .264/.361/.493, which was good enough for for 12.4 WAR of value. Uggla's raw numbers over his 3 seasons prior to collapse (2008-2010) were better than McLouth's numbers were in his 3 years prior to collapse (2007-2009). Plus, Uggla, played a position that weaker hitters generally play, only increasing the amount of value that he brought to the table, and making him in most estimation a better player than McLouth at the time the Braves acquired him.
But Uggla's numbers through 60 games this year would have made 2010 McLouth point and laugh at him. .172/.240/.312, wOBA of .244. And the awful part about it is the numbers just keep getting worse. Since the Roy Halladay game, Uggla is 5 for 60 with 4 walks and 1 extra base hit, which I have at .083/.140/.100. That is about what a below average hitting pitcher will produce during a season if he gets 64 plate appearances. This has brought Uggla's WAR numbers down to -.8 WAR for the season through 60 games. Think about that. A guy who produces around 4 WAR per season hasn't out hit the average AAA player while playing a position that doesn't have many guys who can hit worth a lick at the big league level (I think that made sense). Even Pete Orr's wOBA this season was .258 (.230/.299/.279) when he was filling in for Chase Utley, and people in the sabermetric community were deriding him (rightly, I might add) for how badly he was playing. And Uggla, who makes 9 million this year and 62 million over the length of his contract, has been worse than Orr in every measure.
A question for another time is why the hell 2 former All Stars with established big league credentials have come to Atlanta and immediately become replacement level players (anyone with an answer to this question please look up Wren, Frank in your phone book and give him a call). But, as bad as McLouth was last year, Dan Uggla has been even worse through the first 2+ months of 2011. I don't think Uggla should be given up on by any means, as a guy with his track record (and, unfortunately, his contract) should be given the chance to iron things out. Unfortunately, he has been getting chances and has only dug an even bigger hole. The Braves aren't making the playoffs this year with Uggla hitting like this, and the team really has no choice but to keep running him out there, as they essentially have no other options at this point. The Braves do have other ways to improve (paging a healthy Jason Heyward), but the most obvious way to improve is standing at 2nd base. Fortunately, things can't get any worse. I think.
Uggla's disastrous May and awful start to June has made this a race, and it may be one that is Uggla is winn.., er, losing. Let's start with McLouth and recap where he was before his implosion in 2010. In his 3 prior years combined, McLouth had put up an excellent triple slash of .265/.359/.467, while also making an all star appearance in 2008 on the back of a whopping 76 extra base hits (and also being the only good player on the Pirates, but we won't count against him for that). McLouth produced 3.9 WAR in that season despite some disastrous defense, and overall in those 3 years produced 8.9 WAR in basically 2 and a half seasons (he made just 382 plate appearances for the Pirates in 2007). Nate was a very good player, and one who was going to help the Braves add some punch to an outfield that needed some.
Then, 2010 happened, and I don't think anyone can really tell you what is to blame for it. McLouth's triple slash from 2010 is listed above, and that was good enough for a paltry .283 wOBA. I have a feeling that McLouth's collapse in his age 28 season is one of the worst one in recent memory, especially that age 28 is supposed to be one of a player's prime seasons, when he is playing at his peak output. To collapse of that magnitude is something that you don't see terribly often, and one that left me and many other observers out of ideas as to what was going on. To his credit, McLouth never shied away from the criticism and owned up to it, and he has at least rebounded to be a little bit above replacement level this year, which is a lot better than his 2010 season was. Anything more that they get from him will be gravy until they can get to the end of this season and buy out his contract, as the Braves can't afford to invest any more in a player that just hasn't worked out in a Braves' uniform for one reason or another.
Which brings us to Uggla, who had been one of the premier 2nd baseman in baseball over the past 5 years, even despite his defensive shortcomings. He was such a good hitter in comparison to his peers at the position that his defense didn't really matter that much. His triple slash from 2008-2010 was an outstanding .264/.361/.493, which was good enough for for 12.4 WAR of value. Uggla's raw numbers over his 3 seasons prior to collapse (2008-2010) were better than McLouth's numbers were in his 3 years prior to collapse (2007-2009). Plus, Uggla, played a position that weaker hitters generally play, only increasing the amount of value that he brought to the table, and making him in most estimation a better player than McLouth at the time the Braves acquired him.
But Uggla's numbers through 60 games this year would have made 2010 McLouth point and laugh at him. .172/.240/.312, wOBA of .244. And the awful part about it is the numbers just keep getting worse. Since the Roy Halladay game, Uggla is 5 for 60 with 4 walks and 1 extra base hit, which I have at .083/.140/.100. That is about what a below average hitting pitcher will produce during a season if he gets 64 plate appearances. This has brought Uggla's WAR numbers down to -.8 WAR for the season through 60 games. Think about that. A guy who produces around 4 WAR per season hasn't out hit the average AAA player while playing a position that doesn't have many guys who can hit worth a lick at the big league level (I think that made sense). Even Pete Orr's wOBA this season was .258 (.230/.299/.279) when he was filling in for Chase Utley, and people in the sabermetric community were deriding him (rightly, I might add) for how badly he was playing. And Uggla, who makes 9 million this year and 62 million over the length of his contract, has been worse than Orr in every measure.
A question for another time is why the hell 2 former All Stars with established big league credentials have come to Atlanta and immediately become replacement level players (anyone with an answer to this question please look up Wren, Frank in your phone book and give him a call). But, as bad as McLouth was last year, Dan Uggla has been even worse through the first 2+ months of 2011. I don't think Uggla should be given up on by any means, as a guy with his track record (and, unfortunately, his contract) should be given the chance to iron things out. Unfortunately, he has been getting chances and has only dug an even bigger hole. The Braves aren't making the playoffs this year with Uggla hitting like this, and the team really has no choice but to keep running him out there, as they essentially have no other options at this point. The Braves do have other ways to improve (paging a healthy Jason Heyward), but the most obvious way to improve is standing at 2nd base. Fortunately, things can't get any worse. I think.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)