After a long 10 game western swing, the Braves come back on a serious high note, taking 5 out of the last 6 on the trip by doing what they always do, which is winning a series at Petco Park against the Padres. The Braves took 2 out of 3 in San Diego, and did so in dominating fashion, riding timely hitting, excellent defense, and stellar pitching over the last 2 days. Only some questionable managing decisions from Fredi Gonzalez on Monday night prevented it from being an almost perfect series for the Braves (Fredi, you pinch hit for the pitcher in the top of the 13th with a runner on first and nobody out, and with two relievers left in your pen). The Braves now stand at an even 13-13 and appear to be poised to make a move in the East with 15 out of the next 18 at Turner Field. Even with that so-so record, the Braves are plus 22 in run differential already, suggesting they are a much better team than their record indicated (their Pythagorean expected win loss with that run differential is 16-10). Could be a sign of good things to come. Here are the biggest reasons from the last series for why they were able to take 2 out of 3:
Jair Jurrjens- You really can't say enough about what he contributed on Tuesday night. You could make an argument that it was the performance of the entire season to date. The reason for this is the fact that the Braves had played back to back extra inning games, with the bullpen pitching over six innings in Monday's game alone. Innings were a must out of Jurrjens, and he gave them 9 of them. Outstanding stuff, and it allowed the bullpen to be rested and ready for Wednesday, especially with the off day looming Thursday. He attacked the strike zone early and had only 46 pitches through 5 innings, allowing the Braves' offense to build a sizable lead to allow Fredi some leeway in keeping his pitcher in the game longer than he might otherwise when Jurrjens began to struggle a bit in the late innings. Also big was 15 ground ball outs to 8 fly ball outs. Pounding the bottom of the zone is a good way to pitch, and Jair was all over it on Tuesday.
Tommy Hanson- Jurrjens' performance was more important, but Tommy was more dominant on Wednesday. Facing an inferior offense, Hanson toyed with Padres hitters, striking out 10 while only walking 1 in seven strong innings. It is important to note that the Padres' offense is awful, but Tommy has to be commended for dominating them just as he should. Season numbers now stand at 2.57 ERA, 34 Ks in 35 innings, and 9 walks, and more ground outs than fly outs. It's still early, but if these numbers continue for Tommy, he's the true ace that this team needs.
David Ross- Ross was the hitting star on Tuesday night, clubbing 2 dingers, including a 3 run job that blew the game open in the 6th inning. He is arguably the best backup catcher in the big leagues, and he showed why on Tuesday. Ross was worth 1.6 wins above replacement last year as a backup catcher, and there are multiple teams in the National League who probably wouldn't mind having him as there starter, so the Braves are really lucky to have him. Lets hope he continues to get big hits when McCann has to take a day off.
Chipper Jones- The old geezer continues to hit, with 4 more knocks in the series, including a triple and a homer, and 5 more RBIs. Big 2 run homer in the first inning on Tuesday to set the tone for a fantastic victory on Tuesday. .289/.356/.489 on the season now, very solid numbers, and numbers that could get better if his walk rate increases to its career norms.
Alex Gonzalez- He has been struggling, so 4 hits and a walk in three games for Alex is a big step in the right direction. He also contributed 3 RBIs. However, he's on this list because his glovework has to commended. He has caught everything in the field this year, and has done it with a flair and ease that is impressive looking to any baseball fan. He has good range, terrific hands, and an accurate throwing arm, and watching him play defense must give his teammates all the confidence in the world.
Goats:
Dan Uggla-We are still waiting on him to hit. He will come around eventually, but his .234 OBP in the 5 hole is killing the Braves offense right now. Others seem to be coming around a bit, so could catch on too. His walk rate is only 6.8% at the moment, down from rates that bottomed out last year at 11.6% over his previous 3 years. Walk rates usually stabilize fairly quickly to established career norms, and I imagine Dan will come around once he begins being a bit more patient at the dish.
Cristhian Martinez- He picked up the loss on Monday, although he was pitching his 3rd inning of work, something he isn't asked to do often. However, he didn't pitch particularly well, with 6 of his 7 outs recorded in the air, which is going to leave you susceptible to the home run ball. Well, that is exactly what happened, with Ryan Ludwick teeing off on him in the bottom of the 13th to end the game. He also didn't strike out anyone and walked one. He will need to pitch better in the future than what he showed Monday.
What to Watch For- King Albert and his minions come to Atlanta for a 3 game set, and the Cardinals are another team that has played better than their record indicates. Keep an eye on the Cardinals starters and whether they are keeping the ball on the ground. All three starters this weekend pound the bottom of the zone with sinkers (although Jake Westbrook has really struggled to start the year). Watch early if the Braves are lifting any balls in the air. It could be a sign that the Cardinals' starters don't have their best stuff. On the pitching side, Braves starters must keep the first 2 men in the order for the Cardinals off base (most likely Ryan Theriot and Colby Rasmus), as Pujols has gotten his feet under him, and Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman have been raking all season. Keeping extra guys off base would be big for the Braves chances this weekend.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Monday, April 25, 2011
Braves vs. Giants Series Recap
This was the series I was waiting to see, A 3 game sweep where everything worked like it was supposed to. The pitching was great (outside of one inning), and the offense scratched out runs. Perhaps most importantly, the offense took walks, totaling 16 of them in all against a good pitching staff. Walks help turn the lineup over, run up the opposing pitcher's pitch count, and make your chances so much better to score runs. Thus, it isn't a coincidence that the Braves averaged 6 runs a game in this series, and won all 3 of them. The Braves scored the fifth most runs in the National League last year, and it was because they ranked 1st in on base percentage. With many of the same people in the lineup, they should be near the top again, and this weekend's series was a step in the right direction. A lot went right this weekend, and lets highlight the key performances:
Braves' starting pitchers- Simply outstanding. San Francisco isn't a great offensive team, but the starters were impeccable, combining for 21.2 innings, giving up only 5 ERs, walking 1(!), and striking out 18 batters in their work. They exploited the impatience of the Giants offense, keeping them off balance and working ahead in the count most of the time. Good things are going to happen most times when your starters walk 1 guy in an entire series, and this was no different. To Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson, and Brandon Beachy, job well done.
Jason Heyward- I am glad to see that Jason takes well to criticism from me. After pointing out that he was abysmal in the Dodgers series, he proved his point in the Giants series that there isn't anything to worry about. He was 7 of 12 in the series with a double, 2 walks, and a 3 run homer that cleared a 37 foot brick wall about 420 feet away in right center. That's a bomb. Triple slash line for the series: .583/.642/.916. That will work.
Nate McLouth- More for one moment than anything else. He did reach base 5 times in the series, which is very solid (3 walks, 2 hits), but his main contribution was a bases loaded single off Brian Wilson in extras yesterday. Big hit for Nate, after the Braves were on the verge of squandering a golden opportunity to take the lead. The last week has been filled with positives for him at the dish.
Chipper Jones- Chipper staked the Braves to multi run leads twice this weekend with a pair of 2 run doubles, once on Friday and another on Sunday. He totaled 3 hits, two walks, 4 RBIs this weekend, and he didn't even play on Saturday. Even at 39, he should still be an above average hitter, and while his power isn't what it used to be, he is still a solid offensive contributor.
Eric O'Flaherty- He deserves a shout out for some terrific work yesterday, throwing 2 scoreless innings and giving the Braves a chance to get to Brian Wilson in the 10th. No strikeouts for him, but his command was great, throwing 22 of 30 pitches for strikes, while also getting 4 of his outs on the ground. Also of note is that he retired 4 right handed batters out of his 6 outs. As long as George Sherill is in the Braves' pen, O'Flaherty is going to need to be able to retire right handers regularly. He's done it in the past, and he did it yesterday. Good sign for Braves fans.
Goats-
Jairo Asencio- It was a little unfortunate for him, as he threw an excellent pitch to Pablo Sandoval that he still got a hit on, and then Pat Burrell followed with perhaps the 3rd infield single of his career(it's painful to watch that dude run). However, he wasn't able to get the job done for a team that needs another right handed reliever with Moylan on the DL and Linebrink being unpredictable. I hope he gets more chances because his stuff is good enough to warrant it, but he will need to perform better if he gets a shot in a higher leverage situation.
Alex Gonzalez- Thankfully still providing terrific defense, because his offense has been a disaster lately. He was 1 for 11 in the series, and his OBP now stands at a ghastly .250 for the season. Needs to improve from "out making machine" to "regular outmaker" if the Braves offense is to operate at full capacity.
What to Watch For-
The Braves head back down to Southern California for a 3 game set with the struggling Padres. Atlanta has had some great luck the last few years at Petco Park, going 13-5 in games there since 2006. The Padres offense has been abysmal this year, with no Adrian Gonzalez to bail the out, but the pitching has been extremely solid. Expect some low scoring games, as they combine solid pitching with very good defense all over the field. Key will be whether the Braves can get out on top early, as the Padres have been struggling to score any runs, and I imagine its harder to hit when you know you have too. A 2 run hole could cause them to become anxious and to press. Also, as always, keep an eye on the Braves' plate discipline. The team BB rate is up to a very respectable 9.1%, and you can tell the offense is right when they are taking walks. Hope they keep it up.
Braves' starting pitchers- Simply outstanding. San Francisco isn't a great offensive team, but the starters were impeccable, combining for 21.2 innings, giving up only 5 ERs, walking 1(!), and striking out 18 batters in their work. They exploited the impatience of the Giants offense, keeping them off balance and working ahead in the count most of the time. Good things are going to happen most times when your starters walk 1 guy in an entire series, and this was no different. To Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson, and Brandon Beachy, job well done.
Jason Heyward- I am glad to see that Jason takes well to criticism from me. After pointing out that he was abysmal in the Dodgers series, he proved his point in the Giants series that there isn't anything to worry about. He was 7 of 12 in the series with a double, 2 walks, and a 3 run homer that cleared a 37 foot brick wall about 420 feet away in right center. That's a bomb. Triple slash line for the series: .583/.642/.916. That will work.
Nate McLouth- More for one moment than anything else. He did reach base 5 times in the series, which is very solid (3 walks, 2 hits), but his main contribution was a bases loaded single off Brian Wilson in extras yesterday. Big hit for Nate, after the Braves were on the verge of squandering a golden opportunity to take the lead. The last week has been filled with positives for him at the dish.
Chipper Jones- Chipper staked the Braves to multi run leads twice this weekend with a pair of 2 run doubles, once on Friday and another on Sunday. He totaled 3 hits, two walks, 4 RBIs this weekend, and he didn't even play on Saturday. Even at 39, he should still be an above average hitter, and while his power isn't what it used to be, he is still a solid offensive contributor.
Eric O'Flaherty- He deserves a shout out for some terrific work yesterday, throwing 2 scoreless innings and giving the Braves a chance to get to Brian Wilson in the 10th. No strikeouts for him, but his command was great, throwing 22 of 30 pitches for strikes, while also getting 4 of his outs on the ground. Also of note is that he retired 4 right handed batters out of his 6 outs. As long as George Sherill is in the Braves' pen, O'Flaherty is going to need to be able to retire right handers regularly. He's done it in the past, and he did it yesterday. Good sign for Braves fans.
Goats-
Jairo Asencio- It was a little unfortunate for him, as he threw an excellent pitch to Pablo Sandoval that he still got a hit on, and then Pat Burrell followed with perhaps the 3rd infield single of his career(it's painful to watch that dude run). However, he wasn't able to get the job done for a team that needs another right handed reliever with Moylan on the DL and Linebrink being unpredictable. I hope he gets more chances because his stuff is good enough to warrant it, but he will need to perform better if he gets a shot in a higher leverage situation.
Alex Gonzalez- Thankfully still providing terrific defense, because his offense has been a disaster lately. He was 1 for 11 in the series, and his OBP now stands at a ghastly .250 for the season. Needs to improve from "out making machine" to "regular outmaker" if the Braves offense is to operate at full capacity.
What to Watch For-
The Braves head back down to Southern California for a 3 game set with the struggling Padres. Atlanta has had some great luck the last few years at Petco Park, going 13-5 in games there since 2006. The Padres offense has been abysmal this year, with no Adrian Gonzalez to bail the out, but the pitching has been extremely solid. Expect some low scoring games, as they combine solid pitching with very good defense all over the field. Key will be whether the Braves can get out on top early, as the Padres have been struggling to score any runs, and I imagine its harder to hit when you know you have too. A 2 run hole could cause them to become anxious and to press. Also, as always, keep an eye on the Braves' plate discipline. The team BB rate is up to a very respectable 9.1%, and you can tell the offense is right when they are taking walks. Hope they keep it up.
Friday, April 22, 2011
Braves vs. Dodgers Series Recap
Another series, and more frustration for Braves fans. Yesterday's game was an excruciating loss after a somewhat improbable comeback, which was capped off by a questionable managing decision on Fredi Gonzalez's part. I thought before the at bat that Matt Kemp should be walked, and after depositing an 0-2 offering over the left field wall, I still think he should have been walked. Andre Ethier ends the game when he touches home plate, so what is the harm in putting a guy on first behind him to set up a force at every base and a double play? What if I told you the guy you should be walking was hitting .411/.488/.644 on the young season, and the guy you'd face behind him was a free swinger who isn't terribly fast and isn't immune to hitting the ball on the ground. I just think you have to walk the guy in that spot to set up force plays and double plays, and to also face a much weaker hitter. Missed opportunity, and Uribe may have come through anyway, but in order to maximize your chances of getting out of the inning, I think an intentional walk has to happen in that spot.
The Braves have been an unlucky team this season, and that stands to rebound after this rotten stretch, losing 11 of 16. The team BABIP stands at a major league low .256 as of today (tied with the Nationals). Their run differential stands at +2 despite being 4 games under .500, another sign a turnaround could be coming. Atlanta Brave hitters in the number nine hole (pitchers, pinch hitters, or guys who have double switched there) have 3 hits all season, and they all came one game, two of them in the same inning. Braves opponents have made 3 errors all season against Atlanta. The Braves are 1-4 in one run games (1-5 if you include the extra inning game, which I think is somewhat valid as it was a last at bat victory), and one run games are notoriously volatile, showing no correlation to bullpen strength or any other tangible factor. I still think this is a good baseball team, and it is only a matter of time before they start showing it. Unfortunately, they get to travel up the coast to face the defending world champions next, but let's look back first at some good contributions from players.
Brandon Beachy- Kid was outstanding on Tuesday night, going six strong innings with 7 strikeouts, while also recording more ground outs than fly outs. He has struck out over a batter an inning this season, always a good sign when you are able to miss bats. There is a lot to like with him, and we can only hope the 24 year old will continue to improve like his age suggests he will.
Freddie Freeman- The California native returned home and made an impact, hitting 2 big homers in 4 days, while also adding a double, single, and 4 walks to the ledger. Being on base 8 times in 17 plate appearances along with 3 extra base hits is doing work, and he contributed a big time positive to the cause over 4 days. Season line now stands at .254/.362/.475, which are numbers I would take for an entire season from a 21 year old first baseman. And he is a dead ringer for Buzz from Home Alone, which has to be a positive too. I think.
Nate McLouth- He put up a bagel in the finale, but he had six hits in the series and was on base 8 times in 17 PAs for the series. Also added 3 doubles as well. I pleaded for him to hit in the last series recap, and he didn't let me down. More of that from him would be lovely.
Jair Jurrjens-It wasn't always pretty yesterday, but he battled through and gave the Braves 6 more really good innings. He fanned 6 and only walked 2, a very solid ratio for any pitcher. Still would like to see more ground balls out of him, but his command has been pretty good to this point, so we can't complain too much.
Goats
Jason Heyward- 0 for 14 with no walks in the series. Ouch. He has been fighting it recently, although he has still been an almost league average hitter to this point despite hitting .188 on the season. That is how talented he is, but even the most talented hitters go through slumps like this one, and Heyward is no different. Unfortunately, it comes at a time when most others are struggling too. A .163 BABIP means he should bounce back fairly soon, but for now, we can only hope his off day yesterday will help him out.
Derek Lowe- It was death by a thousand cuts for Lowe on Wednesday, surrendering 8 hits in the 1st 2 innings, with only 1 of those balls being hard hit. In fact, the Braves hit 3 line drives (by my count) in the 1st two innings to triple the Dodgers total in that same time frame, but the Dodgers had 5 runs to show for it. Still, Lowe was fighting his command and was falling behind in the count to most hitters. He wasn't sharp, and will want to put that outing behind him.
Tim Hudson- He has gotten smoked in the 1st inning in most of his outings, and it is starting to become a disturbing trend. However, I think he is fine, as he has dealt in every other inning but the 1st, which continued again when he gave up 2 hits in the five innings that followed with no walks. The Braves need Hudson to be sharp from the first inning on with the way the offense has struggled.
Scott Linebrink- Seems to be feast or famine with this guy, as he had been dealing going into this series. However, he almost lost the game on Tuesday night before Jonny Venters put out the fire, and he gave up a crucial go ahead home run to 79 year old Casey Blake in the 7th inning on Thursday. There isn't many things worse than having a bipolar reliever, and Linebrink has been that guy to this point. His K to BB numbers are excellent, but got to keep it out of the middle of the plate.
What to Watch For-
Braves head to San Francisco tonight for a 3 game set, and it will not be easy. The Giants are loaded with talented pitching, and two of them will be left handed this weekend, which has also caused the Braves to struggle this year and last year too. Oh, and the other guy they are facing is Tim Lincecum, who is a decent pitcher too. The Braves did a little bit better job working counts in Los Angeles, and that needs to continue this weekend. Madison Bumgarner has had serious command issues this season, and Jonathan Sanchez is inconsistent with his command as well. Work some deep counts, get an extra baserunner or two, then hope a hit or 2 falls in (its bound to start happening eventually). Also, let's keep an eye on the first inning, as the Braves pitchers have really struggled then. When your hitters are struggling, I don't think they want the added pressure of having to come from behind. A couple of easy first innings could help the Braves out.
The Braves have been an unlucky team this season, and that stands to rebound after this rotten stretch, losing 11 of 16. The team BABIP stands at a major league low .256 as of today (tied with the Nationals). Their run differential stands at +2 despite being 4 games under .500, another sign a turnaround could be coming. Atlanta Brave hitters in the number nine hole (pitchers, pinch hitters, or guys who have double switched there) have 3 hits all season, and they all came one game, two of them in the same inning. Braves opponents have made 3 errors all season against Atlanta. The Braves are 1-4 in one run games (1-5 if you include the extra inning game, which I think is somewhat valid as it was a last at bat victory), and one run games are notoriously volatile, showing no correlation to bullpen strength or any other tangible factor. I still think this is a good baseball team, and it is only a matter of time before they start showing it. Unfortunately, they get to travel up the coast to face the defending world champions next, but let's look back first at some good contributions from players.
Brandon Beachy- Kid was outstanding on Tuesday night, going six strong innings with 7 strikeouts, while also recording more ground outs than fly outs. He has struck out over a batter an inning this season, always a good sign when you are able to miss bats. There is a lot to like with him, and we can only hope the 24 year old will continue to improve like his age suggests he will.
Freddie Freeman- The California native returned home and made an impact, hitting 2 big homers in 4 days, while also adding a double, single, and 4 walks to the ledger. Being on base 8 times in 17 plate appearances along with 3 extra base hits is doing work, and he contributed a big time positive to the cause over 4 days. Season line now stands at .254/.362/.475, which are numbers I would take for an entire season from a 21 year old first baseman. And he is a dead ringer for Buzz from Home Alone, which has to be a positive too. I think.
Nate McLouth- He put up a bagel in the finale, but he had six hits in the series and was on base 8 times in 17 PAs for the series. Also added 3 doubles as well. I pleaded for him to hit in the last series recap, and he didn't let me down. More of that from him would be lovely.
Jair Jurrjens-It wasn't always pretty yesterday, but he battled through and gave the Braves 6 more really good innings. He fanned 6 and only walked 2, a very solid ratio for any pitcher. Still would like to see more ground balls out of him, but his command has been pretty good to this point, so we can't complain too much.
Goats
Jason Heyward- 0 for 14 with no walks in the series. Ouch. He has been fighting it recently, although he has still been an almost league average hitter to this point despite hitting .188 on the season. That is how talented he is, but even the most talented hitters go through slumps like this one, and Heyward is no different. Unfortunately, it comes at a time when most others are struggling too. A .163 BABIP means he should bounce back fairly soon, but for now, we can only hope his off day yesterday will help him out.
Derek Lowe- It was death by a thousand cuts for Lowe on Wednesday, surrendering 8 hits in the 1st 2 innings, with only 1 of those balls being hard hit. In fact, the Braves hit 3 line drives (by my count) in the 1st two innings to triple the Dodgers total in that same time frame, but the Dodgers had 5 runs to show for it. Still, Lowe was fighting his command and was falling behind in the count to most hitters. He wasn't sharp, and will want to put that outing behind him.
Tim Hudson- He has gotten smoked in the 1st inning in most of his outings, and it is starting to become a disturbing trend. However, I think he is fine, as he has dealt in every other inning but the 1st, which continued again when he gave up 2 hits in the five innings that followed with no walks. The Braves need Hudson to be sharp from the first inning on with the way the offense has struggled.
Scott Linebrink- Seems to be feast or famine with this guy, as he had been dealing going into this series. However, he almost lost the game on Tuesday night before Jonny Venters put out the fire, and he gave up a crucial go ahead home run to 79 year old Casey Blake in the 7th inning on Thursday. There isn't many things worse than having a bipolar reliever, and Linebrink has been that guy to this point. His K to BB numbers are excellent, but got to keep it out of the middle of the plate.
What to Watch For-
Braves head to San Francisco tonight for a 3 game set, and it will not be easy. The Giants are loaded with talented pitching, and two of them will be left handed this weekend, which has also caused the Braves to struggle this year and last year too. Oh, and the other guy they are facing is Tim Lincecum, who is a decent pitcher too. The Braves did a little bit better job working counts in Los Angeles, and that needs to continue this weekend. Madison Bumgarner has had serious command issues this season, and Jonathan Sanchez is inconsistent with his command as well. Work some deep counts, get an extra baserunner or two, then hope a hit or 2 falls in (its bound to start happening eventually). Also, let's keep an eye on the first inning, as the Braves pitchers have really struggled then. When your hitters are struggling, I don't think they want the added pressure of having to come from behind. A couple of easy first innings could help the Braves out.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Larry Drew: Helping Keep Hawks Players Out of Fake Foul Trouble Since 2010
Al Horford set an NBA record last night, fouling out of an NBA game in 2 minutes and 11 seconds. Oh sorry I got confused, as it appears he didn't actually foul out of the game, but his coach fouled him out of the game instead. It appears that Larry Drew also saved Jason Collins and Zaza Pachulia from fake foul trouble as well, which culminated in a 26-10 Orlando run during the last 8 and a half minutes of the first half, as three competent bigs (Collins is very useful in this series) sat on the pine watching the entire implosion unfold with fake foul trouble.
The Hawks had an opportunity last night. They didn't play particularly well in the 1st half, but they got some improbable shots to drop and benefited from some horrendous Magic shooting in the 1st half to lead by 10 points early in the 2nd quarter, despite being out rebounded by about a billion. This out rebounding was somewhat self inflicted as well, when Larry Drew hilariously decided that a frontcourt of Josh Powell and Jason Collins could get the job done on the glass versus the best rebounder in basketball. This of course didn't work, but Magic turnovers really helped out the Hawks here, combined with a 31 or so foot Joe Johnson prayer going in, a Josh Smith 3, and an improbable buzzer beater by Jamal Crawford helped Atlanta build the lead.
But this is where the real fun starts. Jason Collins picked up his 2nd foul with 8:44 left in the 2nd quarter, after Zaza Pachulia had picked up his 2nd foul earlier in the quarter. Collins goes to the bench in favor of Josh Powell (kiss da ringz baby!), leaving the Hawks with this lineup on the floor: Hinrich, Crawford, Wilkins, Williams, Powell. Oh my god. I see 2 incompetent defenders, one of whom has to guard Howard, a 3rd who is a good defender as long as he isn't playing the 4 (oops), and 2 good defenders. Orlando predictably scored 5 points on its next 2 possessions to cut the lead in half. Starters Joe Johnson and Josh Smith immediately get reinserted. But not Al Horford (their best player), or for that matter Jason Collins or Zaza Pachulia, the 2 guys who have a chance to competently guard Dwight Howard.
After proving once again that he doesn't belong on an NBA team (he did in both his stints on the court) Josh Powell left the game for the equally incompetent Hilton Armstrong, who also proved rather predictably that he couldn't guard Dwight Howard either. However, he did pull of the great feat of being allowed to pick up his 3rd foul in the 1st half, as apparently, this is something that your 5th string center is allowed to do. During this 26-10 run that ended with the Hawks down 6 at half time, Dwight Howard scored 17 of his 33 points as he ran roughshod on the incompetent 4th and 5th string centers the Hawks threw out there on him. All while the 3 front court players who have a chance to guard him sat on the bench watching with just 2 personal fouls. The Hawks never led again in the game, despite the fact that they outscored the Magic by 10 points when they any one of Horford, Collins, or Pachulia was in the game. But of course, it's more important to make sure your guys don't foul out, rather than, you know, WINNING the game. Thanks, Larry Drew you just made a resounding final argument for why, even if your Hawks win this series and win a game against the Bulls in the next round, you still absolutely deserve to be replaced as the coach of the Hawks. That was a gruesome display of coaching incompetence.
To cap my argument, I present the number of fouls accumulated by Horford, Collins, and Pachulia. Respectively, they finished with 2, 3, and 4 fouls, while being allowed by NBA rules to commit six before having to sit out (which, of course, is what they did during the decisive 1st half run anyway. Ironic, isn't it?). Yes, Atlanta's best player, Al Horford, finished the game with 2 fouls, despite playing the entirety of the 2nd half. Horford commits 2.85 fouls per 40 minutes, one of the lowest rates by a frontcourt player in basketball. Yet, despite having this knowledge (presumably at least. I hope he does, because I do, and I'm just a fan), Larry Drew kept his best player on the bench for the decisive run because of foul trouble he was not in and was unlikely to achieve. A clear opportunity to win that game, and possibly the series, just fell by the wayside because of gross negligence from the man in charge. That burning smell is me lighting myself on fire.
The Hawks had an opportunity last night. They didn't play particularly well in the 1st half, but they got some improbable shots to drop and benefited from some horrendous Magic shooting in the 1st half to lead by 10 points early in the 2nd quarter, despite being out rebounded by about a billion. This out rebounding was somewhat self inflicted as well, when Larry Drew hilariously decided that a frontcourt of Josh Powell and Jason Collins could get the job done on the glass versus the best rebounder in basketball. This of course didn't work, but Magic turnovers really helped out the Hawks here, combined with a 31 or so foot Joe Johnson prayer going in, a Josh Smith 3, and an improbable buzzer beater by Jamal Crawford helped Atlanta build the lead.
But this is where the real fun starts. Jason Collins picked up his 2nd foul with 8:44 left in the 2nd quarter, after Zaza Pachulia had picked up his 2nd foul earlier in the quarter. Collins goes to the bench in favor of Josh Powell (kiss da ringz baby!), leaving the Hawks with this lineup on the floor: Hinrich, Crawford, Wilkins, Williams, Powell. Oh my god. I see 2 incompetent defenders, one of whom has to guard Howard, a 3rd who is a good defender as long as he isn't playing the 4 (oops), and 2 good defenders. Orlando predictably scored 5 points on its next 2 possessions to cut the lead in half. Starters Joe Johnson and Josh Smith immediately get reinserted. But not Al Horford (their best player), or for that matter Jason Collins or Zaza Pachulia, the 2 guys who have a chance to competently guard Dwight Howard.
After proving once again that he doesn't belong on an NBA team (he did in both his stints on the court) Josh Powell left the game for the equally incompetent Hilton Armstrong, who also proved rather predictably that he couldn't guard Dwight Howard either. However, he did pull of the great feat of being allowed to pick up his 3rd foul in the 1st half, as apparently, this is something that your 5th string center is allowed to do. During this 26-10 run that ended with the Hawks down 6 at half time, Dwight Howard scored 17 of his 33 points as he ran roughshod on the incompetent 4th and 5th string centers the Hawks threw out there on him. All while the 3 front court players who have a chance to guard him sat on the bench watching with just 2 personal fouls. The Hawks never led again in the game, despite the fact that they outscored the Magic by 10 points when they any one of Horford, Collins, or Pachulia was in the game. But of course, it's more important to make sure your guys don't foul out, rather than, you know, WINNING the game. Thanks, Larry Drew you just made a resounding final argument for why, even if your Hawks win this series and win a game against the Bulls in the next round, you still absolutely deserve to be replaced as the coach of the Hawks. That was a gruesome display of coaching incompetence.
To cap my argument, I present the number of fouls accumulated by Horford, Collins, and Pachulia. Respectively, they finished with 2, 3, and 4 fouls, while being allowed by NBA rules to commit six before having to sit out (which, of course, is what they did during the decisive 1st half run anyway. Ironic, isn't it?). Yes, Atlanta's best player, Al Horford, finished the game with 2 fouls, despite playing the entirety of the 2nd half. Horford commits 2.85 fouls per 40 minutes, one of the lowest rates by a frontcourt player in basketball. Yet, despite having this knowledge (presumably at least. I hope he does, because I do, and I'm just a fan), Larry Drew kept his best player on the bench for the decisive run because of foul trouble he was not in and was unlikely to achieve. A clear opportunity to win that game, and possibly the series, just fell by the wayside because of gross negligence from the man in charge. That burning smell is me lighting myself on fire.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Braves vs. Mets Series Recap
Sorry it's a little late, but the Bravos got back into the series win column this weekend, taking 2 out of 3 from the woeful New York Mets. The Braves offense still hasn't gotten on track yet, but the pitching was outstanding this weekend, getting great starts in 2 games and an unlucky one in game 3 from Tommy Hanson. Hanson struggled just a bit with his command in the early going, and it cost him 2 runs. Other than that, he was impeccable, striking out 9 in 5 innings. Let's have a look back at key contributors.
Jair Jurrjens- Jair returned to the rotation with a bang, pitching 7 innings of outstanding baseball in the nightcap, giving up 2 hits, walking 1, and striking out 4 in 7 innings. He had Mets hitters off balance all night. In future starts, I would like to see more balls on the ground from him, as well as a few more strikeouts (although as long as he keeps the K/BB ratio at 4 to 1, he will be fine). However, that's nitpicking. The Braves are a better team when he's in the rotation and healthy.
Alex Gonzalez- Gonzo clubbed 2 homers in game 1 and really helped to put the Braves on their way. His defense has remained outstanding, and he has provided some power this year, ending the series with a slugging percentage right around .500. If only he had a batting eye...
Chipper Jones- Chipper was on base 6 times out of 10 plate appearances in the series, which is business as usual with him against the Mets. Both Braves victories started with Chipper staking the Braves to an early lead, with a solo home run in the 1st of game one and an RBI single in the opening inning of game 2. It was good for the Braves to get out in front early for a change, and Chipper was integral in that.
Goats
Nate McLouth- He needs to start hitting or his job will be in jeopardy. He isn't a good enough fielder to keep trotting out there everyday if he isn't swinging the lumber, and he has been in a funk pretty much since he got to the Braves in 2009. Who knows why really, and its frustrating because I know he's capable of better. However, continuously putting up 1 hit series just isn't going to cut it if it continues. He's probably the Braves best option right now anyway, but I'm sure they will find a better one if he continues to not hit.
Martin Prado- This is a bit of a reach because he did have 3 hits in the series, but the Braves are going to need more from him going forward. Namely, I think he needs to be a little more patient. He has 1 walk this season, which isn't good enough for anyone. The team needs to get back to taking more walks like last season, and I think he can be a catalyst for that since he bats at the top of the order.
What to Watch For:
Braves head west for a week and a half, and it won't be an easy trip for a struggling offense. Ted Lilly has already owned the Braves in game 1 of the Dodgers series, and the Dodgers, Giants, and Padres all have plenty of good pitching to throw at the Braves. Time for the offense to step up, and it starts with plate discipline. Watch for the Braves and see if they start to work some deeper counts and get a couple more bases on balls. They were one of the tops in the bigs last year in walk rate as a team, and this year, they have ranked near the bottom. A struggling offense needs all the baserunners they can get, so working the count can give them that as well as more chances to build confidence, as somebody is bound to get a big hit (.260 team BABIP will go up in time). It would be nice to have some extra base runners via the walk out there when the hits do start to fall.
Jair Jurrjens- Jair returned to the rotation with a bang, pitching 7 innings of outstanding baseball in the nightcap, giving up 2 hits, walking 1, and striking out 4 in 7 innings. He had Mets hitters off balance all night. In future starts, I would like to see more balls on the ground from him, as well as a few more strikeouts (although as long as he keeps the K/BB ratio at 4 to 1, he will be fine). However, that's nitpicking. The Braves are a better team when he's in the rotation and healthy.
Alex Gonzalez- Gonzo clubbed 2 homers in game 1 and really helped to put the Braves on their way. His defense has remained outstanding, and he has provided some power this year, ending the series with a slugging percentage right around .500. If only he had a batting eye...
Chipper Jones- Chipper was on base 6 times out of 10 plate appearances in the series, which is business as usual with him against the Mets. Both Braves victories started with Chipper staking the Braves to an early lead, with a solo home run in the 1st of game one and an RBI single in the opening inning of game 2. It was good for the Braves to get out in front early for a change, and Chipper was integral in that.
Goats
Nate McLouth- He needs to start hitting or his job will be in jeopardy. He isn't a good enough fielder to keep trotting out there everyday if he isn't swinging the lumber, and he has been in a funk pretty much since he got to the Braves in 2009. Who knows why really, and its frustrating because I know he's capable of better. However, continuously putting up 1 hit series just isn't going to cut it if it continues. He's probably the Braves best option right now anyway, but I'm sure they will find a better one if he continues to not hit.
Martin Prado- This is a bit of a reach because he did have 3 hits in the series, but the Braves are going to need more from him going forward. Namely, I think he needs to be a little more patient. He has 1 walk this season, which isn't good enough for anyone. The team needs to get back to taking more walks like last season, and I think he can be a catalyst for that since he bats at the top of the order.
What to Watch For:
Braves head west for a week and a half, and it won't be an easy trip for a struggling offense. Ted Lilly has already owned the Braves in game 1 of the Dodgers series, and the Dodgers, Giants, and Padres all have plenty of good pitching to throw at the Braves. Time for the offense to step up, and it starts with plate discipline. Watch for the Braves and see if they start to work some deeper counts and get a couple more bases on balls. They were one of the tops in the bigs last year in walk rate as a team, and this year, they have ranked near the bottom. A struggling offense needs all the baserunners they can get, so working the count can give them that as well as more chances to build confidence, as somebody is bound to get a big hit (.260 team BABIP will go up in time). It would be nice to have some extra base runners via the walk out there when the hits do start to fall.
Sunday, April 17, 2011
Peter Moylan to the DL
Saturday's sweep of the double header did come with a bit of a damper, as it was learned that the Braves had put Peter Moylan on the 15 day disabled list retroactive to Thursday. Moylan has been a key part of the bullpen for the better part of 3 seasons, and will continue to be one when he is healthy, as he was penciled in to be the primary right handed set up man this season. His ground ball tendencies (ground ball rate over 62% each of the last 4 years) are a huge boost to the bullpen, as he has specialized in recent years at getting a ground ball with runners on base late in a game to get out of a jam. He can also strike guys out as well, with K rates over 7 each of the last 2 years. However, the Braves won't have that luxury when they start their west coast swing, and will have to rely more on Scott Linebrink to get those outs from the right side for the next 2 weeks. He doesn't inspire as much confidence as Moylan, unfortunately.
The Braves recalled Jairo Asencio from Triple A to take the open bullpen spot, who was someone I had not heard of. However, that was because he pitched under the name Luis Valdez until 2009, and he actually pitched for the Braves in 2009, albeit briefly. Asencio's 2 years in the minor leagues have featured K rates over 9.5, which should translate to decent K rates in the majors, although not nearly as good as what his minor league numbers were.
However, this opportunity gives me the chance to ask a question, and that is, "Why can't Stephen Marek get a chance?" Last year at AAA, Marek posted a K/BB ratio of almost 3 to 1, with a K rate over 10 in 50.1 innings. He has started off the season with a 6 to 0 K/BB ratio this year in 4.1 innings this year. He features a good fastball and a hammer curve, meaning he should strikeout guys at the next level given that he has 2 pitches that could be considered plus. In addition, his command has really improved since 2009, meaning he could be ready for a big league trial.
The Braves recalled Jairo Asencio from Triple A to take the open bullpen spot, who was someone I had not heard of. However, that was because he pitched under the name Luis Valdez until 2009, and he actually pitched for the Braves in 2009, albeit briefly. Asencio's 2 years in the minor leagues have featured K rates over 9.5, which should translate to decent K rates in the majors, although not nearly as good as what his minor league numbers were.
However, this opportunity gives me the chance to ask a question, and that is, "Why can't Stephen Marek get a chance?" Last year at AAA, Marek posted a K/BB ratio of almost 3 to 1, with a K rate over 10 in 50.1 innings. He has started off the season with a 6 to 0 K/BB ratio this year in 4.1 innings this year. He features a good fastball and a hammer curve, meaning he should strikeout guys at the next level given that he has 2 pitches that could be considered plus. In addition, his command has really improved since 2009, meaning he could be ready for a big league trial.
Friday, April 15, 2011
Braves vs. Marlins Series Recap
Baseball is an interesting game sometimes, when the execution of one play in a completely separate inning can end up costing you a game an inning later. In my opinion, that is what happened in last night's rubber match between the Braves and Marlins. Flash to the 6th inning of a 5-5 game. After pitching 2 consecutive scoreless innings after struggling with his command, Brandon Beachy seemed to have righted the ship (including his 1st 1-2-3 inning of the night). The 6th inning started with a harmless grounder to 3rd base, which Chipper Jones booted at 3rd and allowed John Buck to reach. This brought up the pitcher to sacrifice, and then a Chris Coghlan intentional walk, which in turn, led Fredi Gonzalez to come get the ball from Beachy and give it to ground ball machine Peter Moylan. Moylan has three right handers to face and puts in good work, striking out 2 and allowing the other one a 30 foot squibber of an infield single, which there was absolutely nothing he could do about. Disaster averted.
However, this led to Eric O'Flaherty coming on for the 7th to pitch a full inning. In this situation, I am all for O'Flaherty pitching a full inning, as Moylan had already been deployed and guys like Linebrink and Sherrill haven't inspired a lot of confidence thus far. However, after retiring the 1st batter (left hander Logan Morrison), O'Flaherty gave up 3 straight hard hit singles all to right handed batters, plating the game winning run.
Now let's back track and find out what might have happened had Chipper Jones not booted that ground ball. First off, there is one out. Secondly, the pitcher's spot is due up next (a probable out, despite Ricky Nolasco being a decent hitting pitcher). That leaves Beachy with 2 outs and no one on to face Chris Coghlan and Omar Infante after him. I would have liked his chances to get one of those 2 out. Thus, that leaves Moylan out of the equation for the time being, leaving him available for a situation just like the one the Braves encountered in the 7th, with runners on base and right handed hitters at the plate. Moylan is the number one option before the 8th and 9th inning in a situation like that, and you hope there is only one situation like that in a game. Instead, there were two last night because of Chipper's error, and the situation where Moylan couldn't pitch may have cost the Braves a victory and a series win.
Despite that, the Braves were somewhat unlucky not to win. There were a few hard hit balls that found gloves instead of grass, while pretty much the opposite happened for the Marlins. Marlins batters struck out 15 times last night out of 27 outs, and also recorded 13 hits, 12 of them on balls in play. Meanwhile, McLouth hit a bullet right at Gaby Sanchez with a runner on first and no one out, leading to a double play that could not be avoided, Brooks Conrad hit a ball hard to right center field with the bases loaded that Coghlan had to lay out to catch, and Freddie Freeman hit a rocket in the 9th with too much top spin on it, causing him to miss out on a possible game winning home run. Stuff like that will happen in one game, but in the long run, some of those hits the Marlins had will find Braves gloves while some bleeders the Braves hit will avoid their opponents gloves. Unfortunately, it happens. Let's recap the series stars.
Tommy Hanson- Tommy was a stud on Tuesday night, going 7 strong innings of no run baseball, striking out 5 and walking 2. His fastball command was so much better the other night, and all of his other pitches played off of that. A good start for him, definitely one he can build on for this weekend.
Brian McCann- Mac had gone without an extra base hit through the 1st ten games, but he put any concerns about his power (I don't think there were many) to bed, belting 2 home runs in the series and driving in 4 runs. His OPS now stands at .848, which is right in line with his .849 career OPS.
Goats:
Brandon Beachy- There were some positives to take from his start, like his 8 strikeouts, but if he can't locate he will probably get hit. He didn't know where anything was going in the 1st couple of innings, and the Fish tagged him for 5 runs. As a guy with a reputation for good command, he won't be happy with how he threw the ball last night.
Chipper Jones- Already covered.
Eric O'Flaherty- He got touched up a bit last night, allowing 3 hard hit balls and only getting one out. He's better than that, and his velocity looks fine, but we do need to watch whether he strikes guys out anytime soon. He has nary a K this year, something to keep an eye on. The Braves need an effective O'Flaherty to round out their bullpen, and he was not that guy last night.
What to Watch For:
The New York Mets come to town this weekend, and they have really been struggling, losing 8 of their last 9. The Mets really don't have much in terms of starting pitching right now, so this could be a good time for the Braves offense to get healthy. The bats have been struggling, but its tough when you have to face the likes of Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels, Josh Johnson, and Ricky Nolasco in the span of 6 days. D.J. Carrasco, Mike Pelfrey, and Chris Young (maybe) await this weekend instead. Watch how the Braves do in containing the leadoff man this weekend, as Chris Coghlan and Shane Victorino have combined to go 16 of 25 over the last 6 games batting in the lead off spot. Those same kind of numbers from Jose Reyes will spell trouble for the Braves this weekend
However, this led to Eric O'Flaherty coming on for the 7th to pitch a full inning. In this situation, I am all for O'Flaherty pitching a full inning, as Moylan had already been deployed and guys like Linebrink and Sherrill haven't inspired a lot of confidence thus far. However, after retiring the 1st batter (left hander Logan Morrison), O'Flaherty gave up 3 straight hard hit singles all to right handed batters, plating the game winning run.
Now let's back track and find out what might have happened had Chipper Jones not booted that ground ball. First off, there is one out. Secondly, the pitcher's spot is due up next (a probable out, despite Ricky Nolasco being a decent hitting pitcher). That leaves Beachy with 2 outs and no one on to face Chris Coghlan and Omar Infante after him. I would have liked his chances to get one of those 2 out. Thus, that leaves Moylan out of the equation for the time being, leaving him available for a situation just like the one the Braves encountered in the 7th, with runners on base and right handed hitters at the plate. Moylan is the number one option before the 8th and 9th inning in a situation like that, and you hope there is only one situation like that in a game. Instead, there were two last night because of Chipper's error, and the situation where Moylan couldn't pitch may have cost the Braves a victory and a series win.
Despite that, the Braves were somewhat unlucky not to win. There were a few hard hit balls that found gloves instead of grass, while pretty much the opposite happened for the Marlins. Marlins batters struck out 15 times last night out of 27 outs, and also recorded 13 hits, 12 of them on balls in play. Meanwhile, McLouth hit a bullet right at Gaby Sanchez with a runner on first and no one out, leading to a double play that could not be avoided, Brooks Conrad hit a ball hard to right center field with the bases loaded that Coghlan had to lay out to catch, and Freddie Freeman hit a rocket in the 9th with too much top spin on it, causing him to miss out on a possible game winning home run. Stuff like that will happen in one game, but in the long run, some of those hits the Marlins had will find Braves gloves while some bleeders the Braves hit will avoid their opponents gloves. Unfortunately, it happens. Let's recap the series stars.
Tommy Hanson- Tommy was a stud on Tuesday night, going 7 strong innings of no run baseball, striking out 5 and walking 2. His fastball command was so much better the other night, and all of his other pitches played off of that. A good start for him, definitely one he can build on for this weekend.
Brian McCann- Mac had gone without an extra base hit through the 1st ten games, but he put any concerns about his power (I don't think there were many) to bed, belting 2 home runs in the series and driving in 4 runs. His OPS now stands at .848, which is right in line with his .849 career OPS.
Goats:
Brandon Beachy- There were some positives to take from his start, like his 8 strikeouts, but if he can't locate he will probably get hit. He didn't know where anything was going in the 1st couple of innings, and the Fish tagged him for 5 runs. As a guy with a reputation for good command, he won't be happy with how he threw the ball last night.
Chipper Jones- Already covered.
Eric O'Flaherty- He got touched up a bit last night, allowing 3 hard hit balls and only getting one out. He's better than that, and his velocity looks fine, but we do need to watch whether he strikes guys out anytime soon. He has nary a K this year, something to keep an eye on. The Braves need an effective O'Flaherty to round out their bullpen, and he was not that guy last night.
What to Watch For:
The New York Mets come to town this weekend, and they have really been struggling, losing 8 of their last 9. The Mets really don't have much in terms of starting pitching right now, so this could be a good time for the Braves offense to get healthy. The bats have been struggling, but its tough when you have to face the likes of Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels, Josh Johnson, and Ricky Nolasco in the span of 6 days. D.J. Carrasco, Mike Pelfrey, and Chris Young (maybe) await this weekend instead. Watch how the Braves do in containing the leadoff man this weekend, as Chris Coghlan and Shane Victorino have combined to go 16 of 25 over the last 6 games batting in the lead off spot. Those same kind of numbers from Jose Reyes will spell trouble for the Braves this weekend
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
The Decline of the Atlanta Hawks' Offense
It has been covered a decent amount in the blogosphere by those probably with more basketball knowledge than myself, but it's something I would like to write about too, because it's extremely frustrating to watch a team with almost the exact same personnel as last year take such a step back from a one time strength. Last year (a LONG time ago) the Atlanta Hawks, despite playing a dull and boring offense based mostly on isolation, averaged 108.9 points per 100 possessions, ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency in the NBA (numbers from ESPN's John Hollinger). This year, after hiring a guy because of his offensive knowledge, the Hawks rank 20th in the league in the same stat at 103.4 points per 100 possessions. Why, then, would the Hawks have taken a step back with the installation of a more creative, and supposedly better, offensive system?
I think a lot of it centers (no pun intended) around the offensive design that offensive guru Larry Drew has designed for these Atlanta Hawks, which seems to be designed to get as many long 2 point jumpers as possible. Atlanta has attempted the fewest amount of shots per game at the rim than any team in the league this year, while also attempting the 2nd most shots per game of any team from the most inefficient range on the court (16 to 23 feet). Compare it to last year, when the Hawks took 5.5 more shots per game at the rim and 2 fewer shots from 16 to 23 feet. Since the Hawks shoot 20% better from around the rim then they do from long 2 point territory, it really isn't a coincidence why the Hawks were better last year on offense than on defense.
Second, the offensive design calls for much more motion than last year, but with that motion means more passing and more turnovers, which takes away from the Hawks greatest strength from last year. Last year, the Hawks turned the ball over a little over 11% of their possessions (Hoop Data), which was far and away tops in the league last year. Plus, they were fifth in the league in offensive rebounding rate. Combining these 2 factors means that the Hawks probably took more shots per possession than any team in the league last year. Since the Hawks shot the ball decently last year too, it goes hand in hand that the Hawks were extremely efficient. This year however, while the Hawks assist on more baskets than most teams thanks to their motion, they also turn the ball over on 13.5% of their possessions. Also, thanks to their motion, many of their sets are inverted, with the guards often setting screens down low with at least one big out on the perimeter. This is problematic when a shot goes up, as one of your best rebounders (Horford or Smith) isn't in position to rebound. This year's Hawks are the 2nd worst offensive rebounding team in the league, and I would argue the main reason for that is Josh Smith chucking jumpers all season long (that's a discussion for another time), and the fact that horrific rebounder Josh Powell inexplicably stole minutes from a very good offensive rebounder (and a much better player) in Zaza Pachulia.
Having a new offensive system is great, and having much more motion in your offense is much better to watch and execute in the long run. However, you must design an offense to fit your personnel, and as hard as it was to watch some times, Mike Woodson's isolation heavy offense fit the personnel better than Larry Drew's does. Judging by the numbers this year, the players seem to have fallen into a comfort zone where their coach has enabled them to take low efficiency shots without reprocussions, and the Hawks have taken a step back on offense because of it. However, this offense was designed to make them harder to defend in a 7 games series. So, Larry Drew, your report card begins on Saturday. I still want you fired because you don't hold some players to the same accountability standards as others, but better results in the playoffs could (unlikely, but could) make me reconsider.
I think a lot of it centers (no pun intended) around the offensive design that offensive guru Larry Drew has designed for these Atlanta Hawks, which seems to be designed to get as many long 2 point jumpers as possible. Atlanta has attempted the fewest amount of shots per game at the rim than any team in the league this year, while also attempting the 2nd most shots per game of any team from the most inefficient range on the court (16 to 23 feet). Compare it to last year, when the Hawks took 5.5 more shots per game at the rim and 2 fewer shots from 16 to 23 feet. Since the Hawks shoot 20% better from around the rim then they do from long 2 point territory, it really isn't a coincidence why the Hawks were better last year on offense than on defense.
Second, the offensive design calls for much more motion than last year, but with that motion means more passing and more turnovers, which takes away from the Hawks greatest strength from last year. Last year, the Hawks turned the ball over a little over 11% of their possessions (Hoop Data), which was far and away tops in the league last year. Plus, they were fifth in the league in offensive rebounding rate. Combining these 2 factors means that the Hawks probably took more shots per possession than any team in the league last year. Since the Hawks shot the ball decently last year too, it goes hand in hand that the Hawks were extremely efficient. This year however, while the Hawks assist on more baskets than most teams thanks to their motion, they also turn the ball over on 13.5% of their possessions. Also, thanks to their motion, many of their sets are inverted, with the guards often setting screens down low with at least one big out on the perimeter. This is problematic when a shot goes up, as one of your best rebounders (Horford or Smith) isn't in position to rebound. This year's Hawks are the 2nd worst offensive rebounding team in the league, and I would argue the main reason for that is Josh Smith chucking jumpers all season long (that's a discussion for another time), and the fact that horrific rebounder Josh Powell inexplicably stole minutes from a very good offensive rebounder (and a much better player) in Zaza Pachulia.
Having a new offensive system is great, and having much more motion in your offense is much better to watch and execute in the long run. However, you must design an offense to fit your personnel, and as hard as it was to watch some times, Mike Woodson's isolation heavy offense fit the personnel better than Larry Drew's does. Judging by the numbers this year, the players seem to have fallen into a comfort zone where their coach has enabled them to take low efficiency shots without reprocussions, and the Hawks have taken a step back on offense because of it. However, this offense was designed to make them harder to defend in a 7 games series. So, Larry Drew, your report card begins on Saturday. I still want you fired because you don't hold some players to the same accountability standards as others, but better results in the playoffs could (unlikely, but could) make me reconsider.
Monday, April 11, 2011
Likely Top 3 Pick Perry Jones Headed Back to Baylor
Well that makes 2 likely high draft picks that have walked away from the NBA Draft this year (Jared Sullinger being the other), and I've heard that Harrison Barnes is likely to follow suit and stay in school. On the college landscape this is big, as this will likely put Baylor in the top 15 to start the year, and this team will have as much talent as anyone in the country. They will have Jones, Anthony Jones, freshman Quincy Miller, senior-to-be dunking machine Quincy Acy, and redshirt freshman Cory Jefferson along the front line, which is the type of length and athleticism that would make Jim Boeheim cry with joy if he was able to get them to run his 2-3 zone at Syracuse. I'm sure Baylor will be running a lot of 2-3 zone next year as well, and it will be interesting to see what Scott Drew can get out of his team. He has never really struck me as a great motivator or tactician, just a very good recruiter, even if he is the most notorious negative recruiter in the entire country. Every coach in the Big XII (err, 10? What are they calling that conference now anyway?) absolutely despises Scott Drew because he recruits players to his school by taking dumps on all the others that are competing for that players services. Whatever works for you Scott, although I'd recommend getting something out of your talent next year, cause if you get canned at Baylor, no one else is hiring you as an assistant because, well, they all hate you.
As for Jones, I'm stunned that he is coming back to school. He was a likely top 3 pick in a draft that was already weakened by Jared Sullinger coming back to school. With all reports saying that Harrison Barnes is leaning towards coming back too, it would seem that someone like Jones would be more likely to enter, especially considering that his family has had financial issues in his past (remember that he was suspended for 6 games because his mother took 3 seperate loans from an AAU coach to pay her rent while he was in high school. Perry didn't even know about it, and his mother paid back the each loan as soon as she got her next paycheck. Meanwhile, Jim Calhoun gets to cut down the nets and wait til next year before he gets suspended. NCAA you are better than that). Maybe he was scared away by the potential lockout, or he felt he wasn't mentally ready to be a pro. I can't say I know for sure.
Jones profiles as a power forward in my eyes at the next level, with the ability to play inside and out. What strikes you first about him is how long he is and how incredibly fluid he is out on the floor. He is quick changing directions, jumps well, has long arms, moves well laterally, and has the frame to get stronger without losing any of that mobility. He also has advanced ball handling skills for a big man, evidenced by quite a few coast to coast forays this year, while also possessing decent mechanics on his shot. His athleticism and ball handling should allow him to be a good shot creator at the next level once he gets a little bit stronger, whether he's facing up a bigger guy or posting up a smaller one.
However, it doesn't appear that the man has a motor, and he is often cruising in and out of games. The one name I've seen associated with Jones more than everyone else is Tim Thomas. That's not a comparison anyone should aspire too, as Thomas was a classic example of getting the least out of your ability guys in NBA history (although he was the man behind one of the greatest cold blooded shots I have ever seen. And the clip has a Nikoloz Tskitshvili sighting. Nice). Since he is going back to school, Jones will need to prove that he is going to come to play every night and show some improvement in his game next year. Improving a skill or 2 significantly will show that he's willing to put in the work on his game to get better, easing some scouts concern about his desire and work ethic.
In the end, I think his decision was based largely on the likely implementation of the 2 and done draft rule. I seems to be a foregone conclusion that the rule will be implemented, and it is going to make next years draft a very weak one, as none of the incoming freshman next year will be able to enter the draft. I guess Jones liked his chances better of going number 1 next year against weaker competition. Plus, with all of his physical tools, he probably feels he controls his own destiny for that spot, and he has put it on himself to prove to those scouts that he should be number one by playing hard every night and improving during the summer. That's risky for sure, but it's admirable that he thinks he can prove his doubters wrong. Whether or not he accomplishes that remains to be seen, and it is something I will be watching next year when he is on the floor. His progress from this year to next year should tell us everything we need to know about what kind of player he will become at the next level.
As for Jones, I'm stunned that he is coming back to school. He was a likely top 3 pick in a draft that was already weakened by Jared Sullinger coming back to school. With all reports saying that Harrison Barnes is leaning towards coming back too, it would seem that someone like Jones would be more likely to enter, especially considering that his family has had financial issues in his past (remember that he was suspended for 6 games because his mother took 3 seperate loans from an AAU coach to pay her rent while he was in high school. Perry didn't even know about it, and his mother paid back the each loan as soon as she got her next paycheck. Meanwhile, Jim Calhoun gets to cut down the nets and wait til next year before he gets suspended. NCAA you are better than that). Maybe he was scared away by the potential lockout, or he felt he wasn't mentally ready to be a pro. I can't say I know for sure.
Jones profiles as a power forward in my eyes at the next level, with the ability to play inside and out. What strikes you first about him is how long he is and how incredibly fluid he is out on the floor. He is quick changing directions, jumps well, has long arms, moves well laterally, and has the frame to get stronger without losing any of that mobility. He also has advanced ball handling skills for a big man, evidenced by quite a few coast to coast forays this year, while also possessing decent mechanics on his shot. His athleticism and ball handling should allow him to be a good shot creator at the next level once he gets a little bit stronger, whether he's facing up a bigger guy or posting up a smaller one.
However, it doesn't appear that the man has a motor, and he is often cruising in and out of games. The one name I've seen associated with Jones more than everyone else is Tim Thomas. That's not a comparison anyone should aspire too, as Thomas was a classic example of getting the least out of your ability guys in NBA history (although he was the man behind one of the greatest cold blooded shots I have ever seen. And the clip has a Nikoloz Tskitshvili sighting. Nice). Since he is going back to school, Jones will need to prove that he is going to come to play every night and show some improvement in his game next year. Improving a skill or 2 significantly will show that he's willing to put in the work on his game to get better, easing some scouts concern about his desire and work ethic.
In the end, I think his decision was based largely on the likely implementation of the 2 and done draft rule. I seems to be a foregone conclusion that the rule will be implemented, and it is going to make next years draft a very weak one, as none of the incoming freshman next year will be able to enter the draft. I guess Jones liked his chances better of going number 1 next year against weaker competition. Plus, with all of his physical tools, he probably feels he controls his own destiny for that spot, and he has put it on himself to prove to those scouts that he should be number one by playing hard every night and improving during the summer. That's risky for sure, but it's admirable that he thinks he can prove his doubters wrong. Whether or not he accomplishes that remains to be seen, and it is something I will be watching next year when he is on the floor. His progress from this year to next year should tell us everything we need to know about what kind of player he will become at the next level.
Hawks Sign Magnum Rolle
Because, why have 5 centers when you could have 6 (I'm not even including Josh Powell in this either)? Rolle is a very athletic, skinny PF/C who could probably provide some defensive value, but at 25 years old, his room for improvement might be a bit limited. I would have rather had him on the roster this whole year than Etan Thomas or Josh Powell, just because he could improve a bit and possibly provide value in the future, and for about half the cost. Alas, it took the Hawks a whole year to figure that out, and not before they had already stockpiled 4.5 useless players on their roster (including Pape Sy). Magnum Rolle won't have much use either I imagine, which means he will fit right in with the end of the Hawks bench, management, and coaching staff. Man, I can't wait for the playoffs.
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Braves vs. Phillies Series Recap
Another frustrating end to a series that started very positively. The Phillies are a very good a baseball team with 4 elite level starting pitchers. They are a good, not great, offensive team as well, which makes for a pretty good combination. However, the Phillies offense is hitting the ball at this point in time, and its the difference between the Braves and Phillies right now. The Braves offense doesn't have a lot of punch at this time, but the bats should come around sooner rather than later, as most of these guys have track records of being solid offensive players (Dan Uggla, I'm looking at you). Throw out a couple of bad innings Saturday and the pitching was very solid too, its just that any time a pitcher makes a mistake right now, the Phillies aren't missing it (check out the .400 team BABIP after 9 games. Yikes). It's frustrating to watch right now, and somebody other than Jason Heyward and Martin Prado are going to have to hit the ball with some authority if the Braves are going to make the playoffs. I think they will thankfully, but it is frustrating to have to wait on it. Lets recap who performed and who didn't
Tim Hudson- Huddy was excellent on Friday night after a shaky start, going 7.2 innings of 3 run baseball (2 earned). His command was excellent for the second time in as many starts, not walking a single batter tonight. He gets plenty of movement on his pitches, which can make it tough for him to locate, but when he's in the strike zone, the movement makes it really difficult for opposing hitters. He has only struck out 7 hitters in 14.2 innings this year, but only 1 walk. As long as he's in the strike zone, he's one of few pitchers in the league who really doesn't need a lot of strikeouts to be legitimately effective.
Chipper Jones- Chipper wasn't great in the series, but he did have one big play, which was a bases clearing double in the bottom of the 4th of game 1. The at bat effectively finished off Cliff Lee, and sent the Braves on their way. Also of note was his 2500th career hit on Friday, which is a very notable accomplishment that needs to be mentioned. Chipper's career triple slash is .306/.405/.536, with a .402 wOBA and over 85 WAR to his credit. Now please try to name as many Hall of Fame 3rd baseman as you can. More difficult than you thought right? There are only 10 of them in the Hall, fewest of any position. Take a look at Chipper's numbers compared to all of them. They fit in quite nicely. Hall of Famer in my book.
Derek Lowe- He got the loss today, but he performed solidly for the 3rd time this year. 7 innings of 2 run baseball is something you will take every time, and Lowe gave that today. Unfortunately, Cole Hamels was outstanding, so it will go down as a loss for Lowe. Only 2 strikeouts, but he did not walk anyone either, making that much more acceptable. Shane Victorino killed him (and all Braves pitchers in general this weekend), but otherwise, he was very solid. The way he has looked to start the year has to make you optimistic.
Goats:
Dan Uggla- 0 for 11 in the series, and he's still looking for his first hit at the Ted as a member of the Braves. His walk rate is a little concerning at this point, as that has been one of his strengths as a hitter. He only has 2 in 10 games. However, its a small sample size, and I imagine that rate will bounce back by looking at his track record. He's going to hit, its just more frustrating right now because not many others are hitting either.
George Sherrill/Scott Linebrink- I mentioned in the bullpen preview that Sherrill struggles with command and Linebrink gives up untimely homers. Sound like the 7th inning of the game on Saturday? It was a bad outing for both of them, and their main flaws reared their ugly heads. I think Linebrink will be fine because he has good command and strikes guys out. Sherrill I'm not so sure about because of how much he struggles to find the strike zone against right handers. He doesn't inspire a lot of confidence right now.
Shane Victorino- Yeah, I know he doesn't play for the Braves, but there wasn't really any one else that stood out as being worse than the others on the Braves team, so I'll tip my cap to one of the opponents instead. Shane pounded out 9 hits in 3 days, and got on base every time he came up with nobody on and nobody out (I think 6 times). That makes life a lot easier on offense for the guys behind him to have a fast guy on 1st base every time they come up and still have all 3 outs to work with. He was the biggest reason the Braves lost 2 out of 3 (and Phillies starting pitching).
What to Watch For:
Looking ahead, the Braves will tangle with the pesky Florida Marlins, and they are going to see both of the Marlins best pitchers in the series (Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco). Hanley Ramirez is battling a knee injury, and his status is up in the air for the series. Not having to deal with him would be a huge plus for the Braves, as he is far and away their best hitter. The main thing I'll be watching for is who gets out in front early for 2 reasons. First, the Braves have scored 1st once in their last 7 games, and in that game, they were behind at the end of that same inning (Wednesday against the Brewers). They are 2-5 in those games, so I'm thinking it might be time to get out to an early lead and see if that helps matters. Also, Tommy Hanson seems to have trouble early in games, so it would be nice for him to get off to a quick start in the series opener. If the Braves are going anywhere this year, they are going to need plenty from Hanson. It would make me feel better if he starts pitching the way he's capable sooner rather than later.
Tim Hudson- Huddy was excellent on Friday night after a shaky start, going 7.2 innings of 3 run baseball (2 earned). His command was excellent for the second time in as many starts, not walking a single batter tonight. He gets plenty of movement on his pitches, which can make it tough for him to locate, but when he's in the strike zone, the movement makes it really difficult for opposing hitters. He has only struck out 7 hitters in 14.2 innings this year, but only 1 walk. As long as he's in the strike zone, he's one of few pitchers in the league who really doesn't need a lot of strikeouts to be legitimately effective.
Chipper Jones- Chipper wasn't great in the series, but he did have one big play, which was a bases clearing double in the bottom of the 4th of game 1. The at bat effectively finished off Cliff Lee, and sent the Braves on their way. Also of note was his 2500th career hit on Friday, which is a very notable accomplishment that needs to be mentioned. Chipper's career triple slash is .306/.405/.536, with a .402 wOBA and over 85 WAR to his credit. Now please try to name as many Hall of Fame 3rd baseman as you can. More difficult than you thought right? There are only 10 of them in the Hall, fewest of any position. Take a look at Chipper's numbers compared to all of them. They fit in quite nicely. Hall of Famer in my book.
Derek Lowe- He got the loss today, but he performed solidly for the 3rd time this year. 7 innings of 2 run baseball is something you will take every time, and Lowe gave that today. Unfortunately, Cole Hamels was outstanding, so it will go down as a loss for Lowe. Only 2 strikeouts, but he did not walk anyone either, making that much more acceptable. Shane Victorino killed him (and all Braves pitchers in general this weekend), but otherwise, he was very solid. The way he has looked to start the year has to make you optimistic.
Goats:
Dan Uggla- 0 for 11 in the series, and he's still looking for his first hit at the Ted as a member of the Braves. His walk rate is a little concerning at this point, as that has been one of his strengths as a hitter. He only has 2 in 10 games. However, its a small sample size, and I imagine that rate will bounce back by looking at his track record. He's going to hit, its just more frustrating right now because not many others are hitting either.
George Sherrill/Scott Linebrink- I mentioned in the bullpen preview that Sherrill struggles with command and Linebrink gives up untimely homers. Sound like the 7th inning of the game on Saturday? It was a bad outing for both of them, and their main flaws reared their ugly heads. I think Linebrink will be fine because he has good command and strikes guys out. Sherrill I'm not so sure about because of how much he struggles to find the strike zone against right handers. He doesn't inspire a lot of confidence right now.
Shane Victorino- Yeah, I know he doesn't play for the Braves, but there wasn't really any one else that stood out as being worse than the others on the Braves team, so I'll tip my cap to one of the opponents instead. Shane pounded out 9 hits in 3 days, and got on base every time he came up with nobody on and nobody out (I think 6 times). That makes life a lot easier on offense for the guys behind him to have a fast guy on 1st base every time they come up and still have all 3 outs to work with. He was the biggest reason the Braves lost 2 out of 3 (and Phillies starting pitching).
What to Watch For:
Looking ahead, the Braves will tangle with the pesky Florida Marlins, and they are going to see both of the Marlins best pitchers in the series (Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco). Hanley Ramirez is battling a knee injury, and his status is up in the air for the series. Not having to deal with him would be a huge plus for the Braves, as he is far and away their best hitter. The main thing I'll be watching for is who gets out in front early for 2 reasons. First, the Braves have scored 1st once in their last 7 games, and in that game, they were behind at the end of that same inning (Wednesday against the Brewers). They are 2-5 in those games, so I'm thinking it might be time to get out to an early lead and see if that helps matters. Also, Tommy Hanson seems to have trouble early in games, so it would be nice for him to get off to a quick start in the series opener. If the Braves are going anywhere this year, they are going to need plenty from Hanson. It would make me feel better if he starts pitching the way he's capable sooner rather than later.
Thursday, April 7, 2011
Braves vs. Brewers Series Recap
Well, it was a promising start to the series, but it ended with a loud thud on the Braves end, losing 3 straight games as they head back to Atlanta to tangle with the big bad Phillies. It has been a tough start to the season for the Braves offense, as they have only scored 4 or more runs just twice in 7 games this season (with one being exactly 4). However, because its baseball, we say hooray for small sample sizes! This offense will hit more consistently than they've shown in the first few games, and the pitching staff has given up only 19 runs in 7 games. That is very good pitching, and the Braves have a +5 run differential through 7 games because of it. It's early, and there isn't any reason to panic despite losing 3 in a row. Remember too that they were on the road against the team that is probably the favorite to win the NL Central, and lost those 3 games by 4 runs total. Yovani Gallardo is a stud who pitched like one on Tuesday, the Braves got hosed by a missed call at the plate on Wednesday in a one run game, and Thursday was just an uphill battle that the Braves were in until the end. It's baseball, this stuff happens through the season. Lets take a look back at some key individuals for the Braves:
Brandon Beachy: The number 1 positive from the series was this guy's performance in the opener. Not a lot of number 5 starters can throw out a line like this: 6 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 Ks. Its only one start, but Beachy showed that he has the ability to be a pretty solid starter in his short time in the minors, judging by his K rate and overall command of 3 pitches. He can absolutely an above average 5th starter this year, so lets hope he builds from this performance.
Dan Uggla- He was only 4 for 14 in the series, but he did provide the biggest moment for the Braves, which was the go ahead home run in the 8th inning of game 1. Having that one moment made him the star of the Braves offense in this series, which frankly is kinda like me picking a favorite between the University of Tennessee, UK, or UNC. Not really any appealing choices.
Braves Bullpen: They continue to keep games from getting out of hand, throwing up 11.1 innings of 1 run baseball in the series. They continue to give the offense the chances to come back in games, it is just the offense hasn't been able to take advantage of those chances at this time. There weren't a lot of strikeouts (other than the otherworldly Craig Kimbrel), but they throw strikes and have been putting out most every fire to this point.
Goats:
Alex Gonzalez- His defense continues to be excellent, but he was a dog at the plate in this series, going 1 for 14 with a walk, including a ground out in the 8th inning with the bases loaded today. Gonzalez will turn in a dud like this series more than a few times throughout the series, and its something the Braves will just have to live with. As long as he is playing good defense, it will have to be tolerated.
Mike Minor- Rough start to the year from the former Commodore, walking the 1st 3 batters he faced and giving up 5 runs in 4.1 innings last night. A 1:4 K to BB ratio isn't going to cut it most starts, so his command will need to get better. His velocity was good last night, but he will need to locate better so he can use his plus changeup to get right handed batters out. It might be the last time we see him for a while if Jurrjens can get back healthy, but he seems to be a confident guy who will have the make up to put this start behind him. Let's hope that is the case.
Freddie Freeman- Freddie has had a rough go of it the 1st 7 days of the season, going 1 for 13 in the series with the Brew Crew. He seemed to be pressing a bit, as evidenced by popping up the 1st pitch he saw after Prado's lead off double last night. Need to have more patience against a young starting pitcher there, as evidenced by the 2 ropes that Chipper and McCann hit on the next 2 at bats. Estrada didn't have it in the 1st inning last night, and Freeman's first pitch swing and Chipper getting thrown out at the plate contributed to him being able to settle in a little bit after that in my eyes.
What to Watch For:
The Phillies come to Atlanta for a 3 game set this weekend, and not a lot else needs to be said. The Phillies are the favorites in the division, and bring an outstanding pitching staff to Turner Field to face a struggling Atlanta offense. The Braves will miss Roy Halladay, but Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels await, which is a tall order. Keep an eye on if the Braves are able to work counts. All 3 Phillies' starters possess excellent command, and any extra baserunners the Braves can get by working the count will be vital in scratching out runs for an offense that needs it. It's a tall task to be sure, but they are going to have to start hitting at some point. Might as well be against some of the best in the biz, right?
Brandon Beachy: The number 1 positive from the series was this guy's performance in the opener. Not a lot of number 5 starters can throw out a line like this: 6 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 Ks. Its only one start, but Beachy showed that he has the ability to be a pretty solid starter in his short time in the minors, judging by his K rate and overall command of 3 pitches. He can absolutely an above average 5th starter this year, so lets hope he builds from this performance.
Dan Uggla- He was only 4 for 14 in the series, but he did provide the biggest moment for the Braves, which was the go ahead home run in the 8th inning of game 1. Having that one moment made him the star of the Braves offense in this series, which frankly is kinda like me picking a favorite between the University of Tennessee, UK, or UNC. Not really any appealing choices.
Braves Bullpen: They continue to keep games from getting out of hand, throwing up 11.1 innings of 1 run baseball in the series. They continue to give the offense the chances to come back in games, it is just the offense hasn't been able to take advantage of those chances at this time. There weren't a lot of strikeouts (other than the otherworldly Craig Kimbrel), but they throw strikes and have been putting out most every fire to this point.
Goats:
Alex Gonzalez- His defense continues to be excellent, but he was a dog at the plate in this series, going 1 for 14 with a walk, including a ground out in the 8th inning with the bases loaded today. Gonzalez will turn in a dud like this series more than a few times throughout the series, and its something the Braves will just have to live with. As long as he is playing good defense, it will have to be tolerated.
Mike Minor- Rough start to the year from the former Commodore, walking the 1st 3 batters he faced and giving up 5 runs in 4.1 innings last night. A 1:4 K to BB ratio isn't going to cut it most starts, so his command will need to get better. His velocity was good last night, but he will need to locate better so he can use his plus changeup to get right handed batters out. It might be the last time we see him for a while if Jurrjens can get back healthy, but he seems to be a confident guy who will have the make up to put this start behind him. Let's hope that is the case.
Freddie Freeman- Freddie has had a rough go of it the 1st 7 days of the season, going 1 for 13 in the series with the Brew Crew. He seemed to be pressing a bit, as evidenced by popping up the 1st pitch he saw after Prado's lead off double last night. Need to have more patience against a young starting pitcher there, as evidenced by the 2 ropes that Chipper and McCann hit on the next 2 at bats. Estrada didn't have it in the 1st inning last night, and Freeman's first pitch swing and Chipper getting thrown out at the plate contributed to him being able to settle in a little bit after that in my eyes.
What to Watch For:
The Phillies come to Atlanta for a 3 game set this weekend, and not a lot else needs to be said. The Phillies are the favorites in the division, and bring an outstanding pitching staff to Turner Field to face a struggling Atlanta offense. The Braves will miss Roy Halladay, but Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels await, which is a tall order. Keep an eye on if the Braves are able to work counts. All 3 Phillies' starters possess excellent command, and any extra baserunners the Braves can get by working the count will be vital in scratching out runs for an offense that needs it. It's a tall task to be sure, but they are going to have to start hitting at some point. Might as well be against some of the best in the biz, right?
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
VU Football Opens 2013 Season vs. Ohio State? Why?
We can start with a disclaimer, it sucks to be a Vanderbilt football fan. The other sports provide competitive teams, despite disappointing endings most of the time (looking at you men's basketball). The baseball team even ranks number 1 in the country at the moment, a spot Vanderbilt isn't exactly accustomed to in any sport.
In addition, new coach James Franklin seems to have sparked the fan base and brought hope to the traditionally puny football team. Appearing a few times on Nashville sports radio and other speaking engagements has shown that Franklin is one heck of a salesman, and the way he closed out the 2011 recruiting class was something to behold. For the first time since Jay Cutler was in the program, there is truly hope that Vanderbilt football will get better. How much better remains to be seen.
The goal at Vanderbilt should be appearing in bowl games at a fairly consistent rate. That needs to be accomplished first before thinking about any conference titles and BCS bowl games. One way to help facilitate that is proper scheduling. Vanderbilt in the past has continually scheduled games against major conference schools like themselves, against the likes of Northwestern and Wake Forest to name a couple. Both of those schools are consistently better than Vanderbilt, thus adding losses to the schedule. Combining those with the rough and tumble SEC schedule meant that Vanderbilt's chances for qualifying for bowl eligibility were miniscule.
Which leads to the main question, as in why is Vanderbilt playing at Ohio State to open the 2013 season? Why would you willingly schedule a road game against a top 5 team with no return game? It's an almost guaranteed loss, which is only going to set back their chances of qualifying for a bowl game.
If you need proof of why this is a bad idea, look no further than Vanderbilt's SEC neighbors to the north, the Kentucky Wildcats. UK has had a traditionally poor football program, yet have qualified for bowls in each of the last 5 seasons, all while never finishing above .500 in the SEC in any of those 5 years. They were 4-4 in 2006, and have been under .500 in conference play in the other 4 seasons. Yet they have been to a bowl game every single year in that time span. How? Check out the non conference schedule. They have a rivalry game every year against Louisville, which is a hit or miss game for them as Louisville was good a few years ago but stinks now. Then, they schedule a team from the MAC generally and one from the Sun Belt (or equivalent lower level D1 conference). In addition, they generally start the season with a D 1-AA school. That's pretty much 3 guaranteed wins in the non conference, and a great shot at a 4th. When you only need 6 wins to get to a bowl, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out UK has made their chances a whole lot easier by scheduling well.
When you have made it to 1 bowl game in 25+ years, I think it goes without saying you need to establish some consistency in your program by getting yourself in the easiest position possible to qualify for bowl games. This would qualify as significant progress, and could serve to excite the fan base more, entice recruits of a little bit higher caliber to come to the program, and could give your team an extra 3 weeks to a month of practice time to improve and get better. However, scheduling the Ohio States of the world is not going to get this done for Vanderbilt football. There is a new coach in town, and I'm truly excited about him. However, scheduling this game is a step in the wrong direction as far as I'm concerned. Wait to see some progress first, then try to take the next step from there. Skipping a step is more likely to send you back to square one.
In addition, new coach James Franklin seems to have sparked the fan base and brought hope to the traditionally puny football team. Appearing a few times on Nashville sports radio and other speaking engagements has shown that Franklin is one heck of a salesman, and the way he closed out the 2011 recruiting class was something to behold. For the first time since Jay Cutler was in the program, there is truly hope that Vanderbilt football will get better. How much better remains to be seen.
The goal at Vanderbilt should be appearing in bowl games at a fairly consistent rate. That needs to be accomplished first before thinking about any conference titles and BCS bowl games. One way to help facilitate that is proper scheduling. Vanderbilt in the past has continually scheduled games against major conference schools like themselves, against the likes of Northwestern and Wake Forest to name a couple. Both of those schools are consistently better than Vanderbilt, thus adding losses to the schedule. Combining those with the rough and tumble SEC schedule meant that Vanderbilt's chances for qualifying for bowl eligibility were miniscule.
Which leads to the main question, as in why is Vanderbilt playing at Ohio State to open the 2013 season? Why would you willingly schedule a road game against a top 5 team with no return game? It's an almost guaranteed loss, which is only going to set back their chances of qualifying for a bowl game.
If you need proof of why this is a bad idea, look no further than Vanderbilt's SEC neighbors to the north, the Kentucky Wildcats. UK has had a traditionally poor football program, yet have qualified for bowls in each of the last 5 seasons, all while never finishing above .500 in the SEC in any of those 5 years. They were 4-4 in 2006, and have been under .500 in conference play in the other 4 seasons. Yet they have been to a bowl game every single year in that time span. How? Check out the non conference schedule. They have a rivalry game every year against Louisville, which is a hit or miss game for them as Louisville was good a few years ago but stinks now. Then, they schedule a team from the MAC generally and one from the Sun Belt (or equivalent lower level D1 conference). In addition, they generally start the season with a D 1-AA school. That's pretty much 3 guaranteed wins in the non conference, and a great shot at a 4th. When you only need 6 wins to get to a bowl, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out UK has made their chances a whole lot easier by scheduling well.
When you have made it to 1 bowl game in 25+ years, I think it goes without saying you need to establish some consistency in your program by getting yourself in the easiest position possible to qualify for bowl games. This would qualify as significant progress, and could serve to excite the fan base more, entice recruits of a little bit higher caliber to come to the program, and could give your team an extra 3 weeks to a month of practice time to improve and get better. However, scheduling the Ohio States of the world is not going to get this done for Vanderbilt football. There is a new coach in town, and I'm truly excited about him. However, scheduling this game is a step in the wrong direction as far as I'm concerned. Wait to see some progress first, then try to take the next step from there. Skipping a step is more likely to send you back to square one.
Monday, April 4, 2011
Yuniesky Betancourt Gets Paid Handsomely to Suck at his Job
I've decided if I ever come across a player the Braves are playing who makes decent coin and are terrible players, I should write about it. Player number one on the docket this year is Brewers shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt, who allows the Brewers to pay him 3.3 million for his disservices. Betancourt is a Cuban defector who came up in the Mariners organization in 2005, and he's been doing replacement level work in the big leagues since 2008.
While with the Mariners, Betancourt posted 2.9 WAR combined over 06-07, not a horrible number but still placing him below average among major league starters. However, he's taken his game to new heights since 2008 began, contributing -.7 WAR over those last 3 years. Why would you want to pay 3.3 million for this? I figure the Brewers probably had to take him back in order to get Zach Greinke, but that must have been one tough pill to swallow.
Why is Betancourt so bad? Well, lets start with his batting eye. Betancourt's BB rate for his career stands at 3.4%(Jeff Francouer just blushed), which is a truly pitiful ratio. That kind of plate discipline is something only the best of hitters could overcome, and Betancourt is not that. He puts the ball in play at a high rate, but the fact that he swings at so many bad pitches means he doesn't put the ball in play with much authority, which can be seen with his .280 career BABIP. His career triple slash coming into play today stood at .271/.295/.392, good enough for a putrid .296 wOBA. Pretty ugly.
However, you could live with a shortstop who makes outs on over 70% of his plate appearances if he could pick it in the field. Unfortunately for the pitching staff, Betancourt can't do that either. He came up with a reputation as a good fielder, but that has been widely overblown by the fact that he can make a spectacular play here and there. What that hides is a guy with sub par range who has to make spectacular plays on balls that good defensive shortstops like Troy Tulowitzki can make without breaking a sweat. Fangraphs has estimated he has given back 42 runs in the field over the last 4 years compared to the average shortstop. A guy who can't hit or field? I'll pass, and I'm suprised the Brewers aren't passing either.
There is a bit of dead weight at the bottom of the Brewers lineup, and Betancourt is a main part of the problem. He is being paid 3.3 million for production they could probably get from promoting their AAA shortstop, who would also make close to 3 million less than Yuniesky. The Brewers have talent, but featuring dead weight like Yuniesky Betancourt could come back to haunt them in a tight pennant race this year.
While with the Mariners, Betancourt posted 2.9 WAR combined over 06-07, not a horrible number but still placing him below average among major league starters. However, he's taken his game to new heights since 2008 began, contributing -.7 WAR over those last 3 years. Why would you want to pay 3.3 million for this? I figure the Brewers probably had to take him back in order to get Zach Greinke, but that must have been one tough pill to swallow.
Why is Betancourt so bad? Well, lets start with his batting eye. Betancourt's BB rate for his career stands at 3.4%(Jeff Francouer just blushed), which is a truly pitiful ratio. That kind of plate discipline is something only the best of hitters could overcome, and Betancourt is not that. He puts the ball in play at a high rate, but the fact that he swings at so many bad pitches means he doesn't put the ball in play with much authority, which can be seen with his .280 career BABIP. His career triple slash coming into play today stood at .271/.295/.392, good enough for a putrid .296 wOBA. Pretty ugly.
However, you could live with a shortstop who makes outs on over 70% of his plate appearances if he could pick it in the field. Unfortunately for the pitching staff, Betancourt can't do that either. He came up with a reputation as a good fielder, but that has been widely overblown by the fact that he can make a spectacular play here and there. What that hides is a guy with sub par range who has to make spectacular plays on balls that good defensive shortstops like Troy Tulowitzki can make without breaking a sweat. Fangraphs has estimated he has given back 42 runs in the field over the last 4 years compared to the average shortstop. A guy who can't hit or field? I'll pass, and I'm suprised the Brewers aren't passing either.
There is a bit of dead weight at the bottom of the Brewers lineup, and Betancourt is a main part of the problem. He is being paid 3.3 million for production they could probably get from promoting their AAA shortstop, who would also make close to 3 million less than Yuniesky. The Brewers have talent, but featuring dead weight like Yuniesky Betancourt could come back to haunt them in a tight pennant race this year.
Craig Kimbrel is Fun to Watch
I think the title is pretty obvious, but it was the first time I got to watch Kimbrel pitch this year, and I had forgotten just how intriguing he is. He threw 15 pitches today and 5 of them were cut on and missed. That is an awesome ratio, even if it is a miniscule sample size. 6 batters up this year, 5 of them sent with their tails between their legs back to their dugout. He has now struck out 45 of the 68 batters he's retired in the bigs. Oh, and as I'm writing this, he's also trending on twitter. He's one bad dude. Just keep throwing strikes, Craig, because as long as you are healthy, it will be the only thing that holds you back.
Good Braves victory today, clutch hits from Prado and Smuggla, plus outstanding pitching from the youngster Brandon Beachy. It was unlucky they couldn't get him a victory today, but if he keeps pitching like that he will be a fixture in the rotation. 7 Ks and 1 BB in 6 innings is excellent work from anyone, not just a rookie making his 4th major league start.
Good Braves victory today, clutch hits from Prado and Smuggla, plus outstanding pitching from the youngster Brandon Beachy. It was unlucky they couldn't get him a victory today, but if he keeps pitching like that he will be a fixture in the rotation. 7 Ks and 1 BB in 6 innings is excellent work from anyone, not just a rookie making his 4th major league start.
Sunday, April 3, 2011
Braves vs. Nationals Series Recap
It ended up being a very good start to the season for the Braves, taking 2 out of 3 in a place they've had trouble winning in the past. The Braves got 2 good starts from Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson and rode that to victories on Thursday and Sunday. Also, Fox Sport South was kind enough to not show Todd Coffey sprinting out of the bullpen for his appearance on Sunday, as watching overweight men sprinting as fast as he can for no reason at all makes me uncomfortable. Saturday was ugly however, as the Braves turned in a sub par effort defensively in addition to suffering through a rough outing from Tommy Hanson. Lets take a look at some key contributors.
Tim Hudson- He was outstanding in the rubber game, going 7 strong innings to pick up his first victory of the season. Last year, command was a bit of an issue for him, but he was sharp today after struggling a bit in the first 2 frames. 7 innings, 3 hits, 1 ER, 1 walk, and 5 strikeouts. If he doesn't walk people, he's really tough, and he proved that once again today. Great work from Hudson today.
Brian McCann- McCann is one of the most reliable players in all of baseball, and he had a great series this weekend. Didn't have any extra base hits, but he hit .462 (6-13) and drove in 5 runs over the 3 games, including an important RBI single to get the Braves on top in the opener. He's the best offensive catcher in the National League, and the Braves are lucky to have him in their lineup.
Alex Gonzalez- Gonzalez was the one Brave who played well on Saturday, and he parlayed that into a .364/.417/.818 line for the series. He showed off his plus power and made every play in the field this weekend. He is a key player on a team with a lot of ground ball pitchers, and if he is a consistent fielder while showing some power here and there, he will be an asset. He even took a walk, which hopefully becomes a trend (I would hold my breath unfortunately).
Derek Lowe- He wasn't as economical with his pitches as Hudson was, but he got a lot of ground balls while also striking out 6 in 5.2 innings. It was a good opening outing for Derek, and any improvement he might provide this year will be huge if the Braves want to catch the Phillies.
Goats:
Tommy Hanson- I don't think there is any reason to be alarmed by one bad start, but Tommy clearly didn't have it yesterday. His fastball command was horrific as he labored through 3.2 innings before the hailstorm hit. He will have to spot his fastball better to have success, and I think he will. Lets hope it doesn't become a trend, but it isn't time to get worried about him yet.
Nate McLouth-Nate wasn't awful in this series, scoring 4 runs including 3 today. However, he didn't really hit the ball with much authority, and it occurred to me as well that he didn't look like he was moving as well as he has in the past. I could be seeing things I guess, but that is the way it seemed to me. If he's lost any range in center (it is already extremely limited), it is only going to hurt the pitching staff in the long run. Nate also had a costly error in game 2, leading to an insurance run for the Nats. He needs to be better defensively on a team with many sub par defenders.
What to Watch For:
The Braves move on to Milwaukee, and the main thing to watch is the young pitchers going for the Braves. Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor will each get their first starts of the season, and it will be fun to see how they acclimate themselves. The Brewers lineup is top heavy, so keeping the Brew Crew off the board in the 1st inning will be something to keep an eye on as well. There are some much easier outs at the bottom of the lineup for the Brewers (yes Yuniesky Betancourt still has a starting job in the majors for reasons that are unclear to me), so if Braves pitchers can get into a groove early, they could have a chance to run off some zeroes and give the Braves offense a chance to get out in front early.
Tim Hudson- He was outstanding in the rubber game, going 7 strong innings to pick up his first victory of the season. Last year, command was a bit of an issue for him, but he was sharp today after struggling a bit in the first 2 frames. 7 innings, 3 hits, 1 ER, 1 walk, and 5 strikeouts. If he doesn't walk people, he's really tough, and he proved that once again today. Great work from Hudson today.
Brian McCann- McCann is one of the most reliable players in all of baseball, and he had a great series this weekend. Didn't have any extra base hits, but he hit .462 (6-13) and drove in 5 runs over the 3 games, including an important RBI single to get the Braves on top in the opener. He's the best offensive catcher in the National League, and the Braves are lucky to have him in their lineup.
Alex Gonzalez- Gonzalez was the one Brave who played well on Saturday, and he parlayed that into a .364/.417/.818 line for the series. He showed off his plus power and made every play in the field this weekend. He is a key player on a team with a lot of ground ball pitchers, and if he is a consistent fielder while showing some power here and there, he will be an asset. He even took a walk, which hopefully becomes a trend (I would hold my breath unfortunately).
Derek Lowe- He wasn't as economical with his pitches as Hudson was, but he got a lot of ground balls while also striking out 6 in 5.2 innings. It was a good opening outing for Derek, and any improvement he might provide this year will be huge if the Braves want to catch the Phillies.
Goats:
Tommy Hanson- I don't think there is any reason to be alarmed by one bad start, but Tommy clearly didn't have it yesterday. His fastball command was horrific as he labored through 3.2 innings before the hailstorm hit. He will have to spot his fastball better to have success, and I think he will. Lets hope it doesn't become a trend, but it isn't time to get worried about him yet.
Nate McLouth-Nate wasn't awful in this series, scoring 4 runs including 3 today. However, he didn't really hit the ball with much authority, and it occurred to me as well that he didn't look like he was moving as well as he has in the past. I could be seeing things I guess, but that is the way it seemed to me. If he's lost any range in center (it is already extremely limited), it is only going to hurt the pitching staff in the long run. Nate also had a costly error in game 2, leading to an insurance run for the Nats. He needs to be better defensively on a team with many sub par defenders.
What to Watch For:
The Braves move on to Milwaukee, and the main thing to watch is the young pitchers going for the Braves. Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor will each get their first starts of the season, and it will be fun to see how they acclimate themselves. The Brewers lineup is top heavy, so keeping the Brew Crew off the board in the 1st inning will be something to keep an eye on as well. There are some much easier outs at the bottom of the lineup for the Brewers (yes Yuniesky Betancourt still has a starting job in the majors for reasons that are unclear to me), so if Braves pitchers can get into a groove early, they could have a chance to run off some zeroes and give the Braves offense a chance to get out in front early.
Saturday, April 2, 2011
Ask for More Zaza, and You Shall Receive
About 12 games ago I asked for more Zaza, and much to my surprise, Larry Drew has delivered. Averaging almost 19 minutes a game in his last 10 games, Zaza has contributed 7.2 points and 5.6 rebounds per contest. That's good production off the bench, especially the rebounding for a team that has never been an above average rebounding team. His PER has risen from just under 11 to a much more respectable 12.64 in that same time. Perhaps more importantly, Zaza's recent play has enlightened Larry Drew on the fact that Josh Powell can't play (it was about 60 games too late, but better late than never I guess), relegating Powell to 2 appearances in that same time frame, and putting him in a suit in some of those games (and he looks so much better in a suit than in a uniform).
I bring all of this up because of Zaza's superb performance last night against the despicable Boston Celtics. Zaza was everywhere in the 4th quarter, chasing down the many errant shots from Joe Johnson (4 of 20 shooting for the game) and generally playing physical while getting under Celtic players' skin (see J. O'Neal tech). 15 points on 4-6 shooting, 7-8 free throws, and 10 boards (5 offensive). Zaza was doing work out there, putting a subpar J-Smoove on the bench for the entirety of the 4th quarter. Overall, Zaza's 23 minutes produced a +17 plus/minus and I think that number will surprise 0 people who sat and watched the game.
Larry Drew, it took you too long, but perhaps you are realizing you have only one backup big who has consistently shown he can play in the NBA. Plus, with the fact that your team shoots (and misses) a lot of jump shots, its good to have your best offensive rebounder on the floor more often to track down those misses. However, you seem to be learning, and lets hope that Zaza continues to reward the faith you have finally began to show him for the first time all year. This team still isn't going anywhere fast, but playing your best players can only help maximize what little upside you might have.
I bring all of this up because of Zaza's superb performance last night against the despicable Boston Celtics. Zaza was everywhere in the 4th quarter, chasing down the many errant shots from Joe Johnson (4 of 20 shooting for the game) and generally playing physical while getting under Celtic players' skin (see J. O'Neal tech). 15 points on 4-6 shooting, 7-8 free throws, and 10 boards (5 offensive). Zaza was doing work out there, putting a subpar J-Smoove on the bench for the entirety of the 4th quarter. Overall, Zaza's 23 minutes produced a +17 plus/minus and I think that number will surprise 0 people who sat and watched the game.
Larry Drew, it took you too long, but perhaps you are realizing you have only one backup big who has consistently shown he can play in the NBA. Plus, with the fact that your team shoots (and misses) a lot of jump shots, its good to have your best offensive rebounder on the floor more often to track down those misses. However, you seem to be learning, and lets hope that Zaza continues to reward the faith you have finally began to show him for the first time all year. This team still isn't going anywhere fast, but playing your best players can only help maximize what little upside you might have.
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