Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Jim Bowden Hates Scrappy 2nd Basemen Who Can Actually Play

Jim Bowden posted an article today about the 10 best contracts in baseball. As per usual, it has egregious mistakes. The list is below:

1. New York Yankees: Robinson Cano, 2B, four years: 2008-11, $30 million, AAV: $7.5 million

Hands down, Cano is one of the top five players in the American League right now. For all the great work that Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has done for the Yankees -- signing free agents CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira and trading for Curtis Granderson or drafting players like Phil Hughes -- he doesn't get enough credit for his foresight in shrewd multiyear deals like Cano’s.



2. Tampa Bay Rays: David Price, LHP, six years: 2007-12, $8.5 million, AAV: $1.4 million

Rays GM Andrew Friedman has three of the top contracts in baseball. He has a keen eye for talent and knows how to leverage players during their non-arbitration years to get the best possible long-term deal. Price’s deal will save the club millions over the span of the contract.



3. Tampa Bay Rays: Evan Longoria, 3B, six years: 2008-13, $17.5 million, AAV: $2.9 million

The Rays kept Longoria in the minors as long as possible to maintain contract leverage and protect the arbitration years. They used this leverage masterfully to eventually sign one of the best third basemen in baseball to a contract that assured the team control of Longoria at a manageable amount through 2013.



4. Tampa Bay Rays: Matt Moore, LHP, five years: 2012-16, $14 million, AAV: $2.8 million

Friedman also kept Moore in the minor leagues as long as possible this past year until he realized he had to promote the starter for the Rays to make the playoffs. Moore showed off his No. 1 starter’s stuff in September. Instead of waiting and risking potential huge financial hits during Moore’s arbitration years, Friedman wrapped him up with a contract that was an absolute steal for the club if he can stay healthy throughout it.



5. Atlanta Braves: Brian McCann, C, six years: 2007-12, $28.5 million, AAV: $4.75 million

The Braves did a tremendous job when they signed McCann, one of the top three catchers in the National League, to his current deal. McCann's all-around ability on both sides would have made him a very difficult player to take through the arbitration system, especially in a league with so few elite catchers. Unfortunately for the Braves, the contract will expire after this season, and my instincts say his next contract will be much more player-friendly.



6. Milwaukee Brewers: Yovani Gallardo, RHP, five years: 2010-14, $30 million, AAV: $6 million

Gallardo set the market for young starting pitchers when he signed his contract before the 2010 season. Gallardo is a workhorse capable of 15 wins and 200 innings every year. Milwaukee Brewers GM Doug Melvin did such a great job on this contract not just for the Brewers, but it helped both the Toronto Blue Jays and Cincinnati Reds sign Ricky Romero and Johnny Cueto, respectively, to similar five-year deals the next year. It was an industry changer for clubs that clearly identified what a young top starter should be paid during his arbitration-eligible years.



7. Toronto Blue Jays: Ricky Romero, LHP, five years: 2011-15, $30.1 million, AAV: $6.02 million

Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos is one of the bright young GMs in the game, and his signing of Romero is part of the several shrewd moves he's made since taking over the Blue Jays. Romero has become one of the best and most consistent left-handed starters in the league, and the Jays have him at a reasonable salary through 2015, years during which the Jays fully expect to be in contention for the AL East crown.



8. Cincinnati Reds: Johnny Cueto, RHP, four years: 2011-14, $27 million, AAV: $6.75 million

Cueto signed his contract before last season, and he rewarded Reds GM Walt Jocketty with the best full season of his career. Cueto quickly proved he was a pure No. 2 starter with the potential to develop into a No. 1. The Reds have him locked up for three more seasons as they continue to try to build one of the best young staffs in the division with newly acquired Mat Latos, Cueto, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake.



9. Arizona Diamondbacks: Justin Upton, RF, six years: 2010-15, $51.25 million, AAV: $8.5 million

Upton became an MVP candidate in 2011, and most baseball analysts believe that he's capable of taking his game to yet another level in 2012 and possibly match Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp as one of the best all-around players in the game. Upton signed his deal before the 2010 season, and it won't expire until after 2015. This deal is extremely club-friendly especially when one considers the sizable contract extensions of Kemp and Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez.



10. Kansas City Royals: Billy Butler, DH, four years: 2011-14, $30 million, AAV: $7.5 million

One of the most underrated hitters in baseball, Butler continues to hit for average and drive in runs as one of the keys to the Royals’ lineup. Considering the marketplace for some of the best hitters in the game, there is no doubt his deal becomes very club-friendly in 2013 and 2014 if he continues his progress and the Royals start to win.

Lets first establish the fact that Jim Bowden does not include team options when evaluating these contracts. With that point, how the hell is Robinson Cano number one on this list, WHEN HIS CONTRACT IS EXPIRED. By my count, his $14 million dollar option for this year is his contract now, and it sure as hell makes Cano's contract look a lot worse then that tidy 7.5 million number. Granted, Cano is worth every penny and more of $14 million per year, but would I rather pay Evan Longoria 2.6 million per year, or Cano $14 million? Easy answer. Longoria should be number 1 on this list, and it isn't even close. And why aren't options involved in this evaluation? Since the contract are all great contract, isn't it safe to assume that the team is going to pick up the option? And by my count, every single one of the option years in these players contracts would set back free agency an extra year for these guys, adding even more value to the contract for the team. This must be taken into account, as that last year would be compared to the per year dollar amount one of these guys would expect to get in the open market. And everyone of these guys is worth a lot more than that option year, except perhaps Billy Butler, which is the next topic of my rant.

I like Billy Butler, the guy can rake, he's young, and he'll take a walk. But let's be honest, a guy who brings no value to the table defensively is going to have a harder time being an elite player. And that's Butler's problem, as he's an above average hitter, but not an elite one, since he has mainly doubles power. Nothing wrong with that, but for 7.5 million year, it took me about 2 seconds to find a guy who makes less money AVV while also being a much better player. Jim Bowden, esteemed former MLB GM, have you ever heard of Dustin Pedroia?

Over his 3+ year career, Billy Butler has accumulated 6.8 WAR by being a very good hitter combined with horrible baserunning and zero defensive value added. Pedroia is a former league MVP who is making 6.7 million per year on average over his 6 year contract who accumulated 8 WAR IN 2011 ALONE. Even if you don't like WAR or sabermetrics, I'll present you with another way to look at this. Butler triple slashed .291/.361/.461 in 2011 while DHing, while Pedroia went for .307/.387/.474, and also contributing Gold Glove defense at 2nd base. Pedroia also makes less money per season over the length of contract than Butler. Next week, perhaps there will be a column with a list of people who get paid a lot to suck at their jobs. I nominate Jim Bowden to write that column.

No comments:

Post a Comment