Jim Bowden Hates Scrappy 2nd Basemen Who Can Actually Play

Jim Bowden posted an article today about the 10 best contracts in baseball. As per usual, it has egregious mistakes. The list is below:

1. New York Yankees: Robinson Cano, 2B, four years: 2008-11, $30 million, AAV: $7.5 million

Hands down, Cano is one of the top five players in the American League right now. For all the great work that Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has done for the Yankees -- signing free agents CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira and trading for Curtis Granderson or drafting players like Phil Hughes -- he doesn't get enough credit for his foresight in shrewd multiyear deals like Cano’s.

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2. Tampa Bay Rays: David Price, LHP, six years: 2007-12, $8.5 million, AAV: $1.4 million

Rays GM Andrew Friedman has three of the top contracts in baseball. He has a keen eye for talent and knows how to leverage players during their non-arbitration years to get the best possible long-term deal. Price’s deal will save the club millions over the span of the contract.

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3. Tampa Bay Rays: Evan Longoria, 3B, six years: 2008-13, $17.5 million, AAV: $2.9 million

The Rays kept Longoria in the minors as long as possible to maintain contract leverage and protect the arbitration years. They used this leverage masterfully to eventually sign one of the best third basemen in baseball to a contract that assured the team control of Longoria at a manageable amount through 2013.

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4. Tampa Bay Rays: Matt Moore, LHP, five years: 2012-16, $14 million, AAV: $2.8 million

Friedman also kept Moore in the minor leagues as long as possible this past year until he realized he had to promote the starter for the Rays to make the playoffs. Moore showed off his No. 1 starter’s stuff in September. Instead of waiting and risking potential huge financial hits during Moore’s arbitration years, Friedman wrapped him up with a contract that was an absolute steal for the club if he can stay healthy throughout it.

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5. Atlanta Braves: Brian McCann, C, six years: 2007-12, $28.5 million, AAV: $4.75 million

The Braves did a tremendous job when they signed McCann, one of the top three catchers in the National League, to his current deal. McCann's all-around ability on both sides would have made him a very difficult player to take through the arbitration system, especially in a league with so few elite catchers. Unfortunately for the Braves, the contract will expire after this season, and my instincts say his next contract will be much more player-friendly.

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6. Milwaukee Brewers: Yovani Gallardo, RHP, five years: 2010-14, $30 million, AAV: $6 million

Gallardo set the market for young starting pitchers when he signed his contract before the 2010 season. Gallardo is a workhorse capable of 15 wins and 200 innings every year. Milwaukee Brewers GM Doug Melvin did such a great job on this contract not just for the Brewers, but it helped both the Toronto Blue Jays and Cincinnati Reds sign Ricky Romero and Johnny Cueto, respectively, to similar five-year deals the next year. It was an industry changer for clubs that clearly identified what a young top starter should be paid during his arbitration-eligible years.

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7. Toronto Blue Jays: Ricky Romero, LHP, five years: 2011-15, $30.1 million, AAV: $6.02 million

Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos is one of the bright young GMs in the game, and his signing of Romero is part of the several shrewd moves he's made since taking over the Blue Jays. Romero has become one of the best and most consistent left-handed starters in the league, and the Jays have him at a reasonable salary through 2015, years during which the Jays fully expect to be in contention for the AL East crown.

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8. Cincinnati Reds: Johnny Cueto, RHP, four years: 2011-14, $27 million, AAV: $6.75 million

Cueto signed his contract before last season, and he rewarded Reds GM Walt Jocketty with the best full season of his career. Cueto quickly proved he was a pure No. 2 starter with the potential to develop into a No. 1. The Reds have him locked up for three more seasons as they continue to try to build one of the best young staffs in the division with newly acquired Mat Latos, Cueto, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake.

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9. Arizona Diamondbacks: Justin Upton, RF, six years: 2010-15, $51.25 million, AAV: $8.5 million

Upton became an MVP candidate in 2011, and most baseball analysts believe that he's capable of taking his game to yet another level in 2012 and possibly match Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp as one of the best all-around players in the game. Upton signed his deal before the 2010 season, and it won't expire until after 2015. This deal is extremely club-friendly especially when one considers the sizable contract extensions of Kemp and Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez.

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10. Kansas City Royals: Billy Butler, DH, four years: 2011-14, $30 million, AAV: $7.5 million

One of the most underrated hitters in baseball, Butler continues to hit for average and drive in runs as one of the keys to the Royals’ lineup. Considering the marketplace for some of the best hitters in the game, there is no doubt his deal becomes very club-friendly in 2013 and 2014 if he continues his progress and the Royals start to win.

Lets first establish the fact that Jim Bowden does not include team options when evaluating these contracts. With that point, how the hell is Robinson Cano number one on this list, WHEN HIS CONTRACT IS EXPIRED. By my count, his $14 million dollar option for this year is his contract now, and it sure as hell makes Cano's contract look a lot worse then that tidy 7.5 million number. Granted, Cano is worth every penny and more of $14 million per year, but would I rather pay Evan Longoria 2.6 million per year, or Cano $14 million? Easy answer. Longoria should be number 1 on this list, and it isn't even close. And why aren't options involved in this evaluation? Since the contract are all great contract, isn't it safe to assume that the team is going to pick up the option? And by my count, every single one of the option years in these players contracts would set back free agency an extra year for these guys, adding even more value to the contract for the team. This must be taken into account, as that last year would be compared to the per year dollar amount one of these guys would expect to get in the open market. And everyone of these guys is worth a lot more than that option year, except perhaps Billy Butler, which is the next topic of my rant.

I like Billy Butler, the guy can rake, he's young, and he'll take a walk. But let's be honest, a guy who brings no value to the table defensively is going to have a harder time being an elite player. And that's Butler's problem, as he's an above average hitter, but not an elite one, since he has mainly doubles power. Nothing wrong with that, but for 7.5 million year, it took me about 2 seconds to find a guy who makes less money AVV while also being a much better player. Jim Bowden, esteemed former MLB GM, have you ever heard of Dustin Pedroia?

Over his 3+ year career, Billy Butler has accumulated 6.8 WAR by being a very good hitter combined with horrible baserunning and zero defensive value added. Pedroia is a former league MVP who is making 6.7 million per year on average over his 6 year contract who accumulated 8 WAR IN 2011 ALONE. Even if you don't like WAR or sabermetrics, I'll present you with another way to look at this. Butler triple slashed .291/.361/.461 in 2011 while DHing, while Pedroia went for .307/.387/.474, and also contributing Gold Glove defense at 2nd base. Pedroia also makes less money per season over the length of contract than Butler. Next week, perhaps there will be a column with a list of people who get paid a lot to suck at their jobs. I nominate Jim Bowden to write that column.

Hawks Waive 3 Players

Pape Sy, Brad Wanamaker, and Magnum Rolle were all waived today to cut the Hawks roster down to 16. Although the Hawks starting lineup is quite young still, with 4 out of 5 players still 26 or younger, the bench is, well, not so much. Ages for the backups:

Pachulia- 27 years old
Benson- 23
Sloan- 23
Ivan Johnson- 27 years old

These are the young guys still on the roster. Pachulia obviously isn't going anywhere, but I think Sloan and Johnson are likely to get cut, despite their decent preseason play. Here's where things get fun:

McGrady- 32
Pargo- 32
Green- 30
Stackhouse- 37
Collins- 33
Hinrich- 30
Radmonovic- 31

Lets just load the bench down with guys who have no chance of getting better. Meanwhile, the Hawks continue to be one of the worst in the league at developing players, as well as allocating resources towards player development. Buying out Pape Sy's contract and bringing him over to the NBA to do nothing but watch is just a terrible allocation of resources for a team on a tight budget. Now that they have cut him this year, what was accomplished. This could have been avoided, especially when everyone and their brother knew that Pape Sy wasn't going to contribute much last year. Why waste a roster spot, and money, more importantly, when he could have continued to be your property while developing overseas. Failures like this are why it is so frustrating to be a Hawks fan. They should be doing everything they can to find assets on the cheap, as well as allocating what few resources they have left under the cap in better ways. Now they just have dead weight. Like always.

Hawks Make a Typical Hawks Signing

The Hawks have attempted to fill their gaping hole (with Kirk Hinrich's injury) at backup point guard by signing Jannero Pargo, a 32 year old who was last a useful player in the NBA in 2008. As you might expect, the Hawks still have a gaping hole at backup point guard. I suppose Pargo could exceed my expectation, but lets take a quick look at why I think Pargo is a bad signing, as opposed to maybe keeping one of Donald Sloan or Brad Wannamaker instead.

First reason is shot selection. Jannero Pargo's best skill as an NBA player is that he is a shot creator, which has some uses when you are a bench player. However, his favorite type of shot is the 16-23 foot jumper, which is the number one shot the Hawks need to move away from, as its the least efficient shot in basketball. The Hawks attempted the 2nd most shots in the NBA from this distance last season, and their offense will continue to be league average as long as that continues. In addition, Pargo's 42.9% true shooting percentage is just awful, as he is not a good 3 point shooter, not does he get to the line very much. Basically, he is a chucker, and an inefficient one. He will have games when the shots go in, but many more when they don't.

2nd reason is that he isn't really a point guard. His assist rate fell all the way under 20% in 2010, which is an awful number for a guy who is going to be running the one. As long as he is playing with Tracy McGrady, this might not be a huge issue, as TMac is a willing and able passer of the basketball who can create for others. However, there will be many games when McGrady either can't go, or will be completely ineffective because of his balky knees, and the idea of Pargo initiating the offense for the bench unit makes me shudder.

Lastly, his defensive numbers were weak in all facets, which Michael Cunningham covers in his short blog post about it on AJC.com. So with all of this knowledge, and the fact that they will probably have to pay Pargo more as a veteran than they would one of the kids, why did they make this signing. I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Veteran experience only matters if said veteran has game. This applies to Jerry Stackhouse as well, who hasn't had anything left for about 3 years and is still going to get a chance with the Hawks. Brad Wanamaker was rated 37th overall by John Hollinger in his pre draft ratings, and he is a guy who can play both guard positions, defend, rebound, pass, and draw fouls. His one drawback is he isn't a great shooter. However, that can be learned and developed, and he is cheaper anyway. Since the Hawks are pushed up against the glass regarding the luxury tax, why, why, why, must they always throw away opportunities to develop a young asset for the minimum? He may not develop into anything, but at least there is a chance. With Stackhouse and Pargo, we already know they can't play.

Jim Bowden is Still Terrible at His Job

I like making fun of Jim Bowden, as he was a very average MLB general manager who now gets paid to think like a GM would and write about it on ESPN.com. The other day, he listed his top 5 currently undervalued free agents, and 4 of them I actually liked but. But the 5th? Francisco Cordero? You have to be kidding me Jim:

3. Francisco Cordero, CL
Age: 36 | 2011 stats: 2.45 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 37 saves, 69.2 IP

Why he’s undervalued: Cordero has flown under the radar a bit because the market was flooded with closers this offseason, both in free agency as well as in the trade market. The Philadelphia Phillies signed Jonathan Papelbon, the Miami Marlins signed Heath Bell, the Texas Rangers signed Joe Nathan, the San Diego Padres traded for Huston Street, the Red Sox traded for Mark Melancon, and Francisco Rodriguez accepted salary arbitration with the Milwaukee Brewers.

Still, Cordero is a three-time All-Star who had an ERA under 3.00 in two of the last three years, despite pitching half of his games in the Great American Ball Park.

Francisco Cordero registered a fantastic return of .1 WAR on his 12 million dollar salary last year. He's 36 years old, his K per 9 innings has tumbled from 9.98 in 2008 to 5.43 last year, and his BABIP was .214, 80 points lower than the next lowest full season BABIP of his entire career. His average fastball velocity dropped from 94.5 mph in 2010 to 93 mph in 2011. He also had 37 saves, which means his salary will be inflated next year because of the overvaluing of the save stat in the baseball market place. His signing would also mean a team would have to surrender a draft pick to get him. All of this information took me less than 5 minutes to find. Would you rather pay a guy 400k out of your farm system for 60 innings with a 4.5 FIP, or would you rather pay a guy 5 to 8 million for Francisco Cordero to do the same? Jim Bowden, you have a job. Do it better.

Reaction from the NBA/MLB day of Free Agency

A lot has happened today on the free agency front in both the NBA and MLB. Here are some thoughts, first with MLB.

Albert Pujols signs for the Angels-
10 years, $254 million for a 31 year old first baseman. That's a lot of money. Assuming 5% inflation and a marginal win being valued at $5 million, my crude estimates say that Albert needs to produce about 41 WAR for it to realize full value. Albert is awesome though, so it is possible that he could produce this much, with his best chance probably being to have some really good years at the front end. In the end though, to give anyone ten years is a huge risk, so the Angels are banking on some good health as Albert gets older. But in the short term though, he obviously makes them a lot better.

CJ Wilson also signs for the Angels-
This one was needed by the Angels more than Albert, frankly, as their rotation depth was terrible outside the top three. Haren and Weaver are excellent, Santana is very good, but after that? Yikes. They already traded Tyler Chatwood, who sucks anyway, and other options include both Jerome Williams and Horacio Ramirez. Yes, that Horacio Ramirez. Joel Piniero is also a free agent, coming off a very mediocre campaign. Wilson is without a doubt a huge upgrade over those guys, despite the fact that he has command issues and has had elbow problems in the past. If he has another year like last year in him, however, this contract will have a hard time being a complete bust. The Angels got better today without a doubt.

Now the NBA, which is the good stuff
Caron Butler signs with the Clippers-
The Clippers had so much working for them. Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon. Decent cap room currently, with some intriguing young players like DeAndre Jordan, Eric Bledsoe, and Al-Farouq Aminu. And then this happened, reminding us that we can count on the Clippers as much as we can count on death and taxes. 3 years, 24 million for a small forward who doesn't fit what they need. Did I mention he's played in 103 games the last 3 seasons? Or that he doesn't pass, with an assist rate worse than Corey Maggette last year, who hasn't made an unselfish play since in, well, a while. Just what Griffin and Gordon want is a ball stopping wing who clogs the cap and can't stay on the floor. He's also not a great shooter/floor spacer. Well done Clippers, Blake's best friend still remains unsigned. Will your penny pinching owner go over the cap to resign Jordan, and make Blake happy? Donald Sterling.

Tayshaun Prince resigns for 4 years with the Pistons-
Tayshaun isn't a bad player, but at 31 years old, he probably isn't going to be a major factor on the Pistons next good team. So, the logical thing is to resign him for 4 years at almost 7 million a season and take away playing time from Austin Daye and Jonas Jerbeko. Perfect. The Pistons aren't going anywhere, so why resign him? I just don't get this.

Rumored Chris Paul traded to LAL(based on Adrian Wojnarowski's report)-
This is so annoying, that the Lakers can trade for a guy this good, and still keep Andrew Bynum so they can trade for Dwight Howard. This is actually going to happen now, despite the fact that Bynum will never ever be healthy in his entire career. I don't know what New Orleans has really accomplished with this, as they are picking up (rumored) 3 very good players who are all close to or on the wrong side of 30 in Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, and Lamar Odom. In addition, we aren't hearing any rumors that Okafor and Ariza are going anywhere, who are their two bad contracts. Okafor's still a pretty good player, and he fits with the potential new guys, so it makes sense to keep him, but New Orleans has to make the Lakers take Trevor Ariza in a deal. Why wouldn't they? Do they really want to keep a guy who shot less than 40% WHILE PLAYING WITH CHRIS FREAKING PAUL? He's also owed over 20 million dollars over the next 3 years. New Orleans could actually be pretty good this year, but they aren't championship worthy. And there is no chance of them getting better after 2012 if this deal goes down. I just think they could have done better (i.e. younger) while also getting a draft pick in next year's loaded draft, but who knows.

And Memo to Otis Smith. You do not want Andrew Bynum. Make sure this doesn't happen. The lockout was all about competitive balance, and two of the 10 best players in the NBA are going to go to one of the NBAs best teams as soon as it ends. It is all in your hands now, Otis. Unfortunately, I don't trust you.

Season Grades: Infield

This will be the first of a series of posts grading out the Braves players/coaches on the season, along with some thoughts from me about what went right/wrong, and future prospects of each player.

Brian McCann-
After almost 4 months of the 2011 season you could make a legitimate argument that Mac was having his best season as a big leaguer, which is pretty impressive when you are a six time All Star. He was voted an all star starter for the very first time, and deservedly so, as he put up a .310/.381/.514 first half line, which are outstanding numbers at any position, especially at catcher. However, it all went wrong in that marathon game against Pittsburgh in late July, when McCann strained his oblique and went on the DL. After that, he was a shell of his former self, and was certainly a contributing cause to the Braves collapse in September. Overall though, its tough to complain with 3.7 fWAR from your catcher, and McCann's overall contribution was a significant plus. With an offseason to get fully healthy, rested, and work out any mechanical issues in his swing, I imagine he will be fine next year. He will be in his age 28 season, and as long as the injury bug doesn't pop up again (this was his first non fluky injury ever), he should be back on the All Star team. Grade=B, as I can't go any higher than that because of his terrible final 35 games, but the Braves had much bigger problems this year.

Freddie Freeman- Freddie surprised me this year, as my expectation were fairly low for him. As a 21 year old first baseman who didn't have a great deal of patience in the minors, I thought it could be a roller coaster year for him. There were some peaks and valleys for him, but overall .282/.346/.446 from a guy that young is very positive, especially in what was a negative run environment across baseball this season. Freddie is a hacker, but watching him play this year has me a lot more confident that he will do just fine as an aggressive hitter. He knows what he's doing, and he hits the ball hard (line drive percentage was an excellent 23% this year). His hit tool is clearly plus, and he showed a bit of power too, belting 21 home runs. Power was a bit of a question for him, but it appears he has a chance to be a consistent 25+ homer guy in the bigs. The main thing we learned, though, is the kid can hit.

What we also learned is that Freddie has some of the best hands in all of baseball around first base, routinely digging out errant throws from all over the infield diamond. He's an outstanding receiver of the baseball over at first base, and that really helps with some below average fielders around him. However, we also learned that Freddie has the range of a statue over at first base, often getting beaten to both sides throughout the season. He needs to get better in that regard, as UZR, Defensive Runs Saved, and the naked eye all saw his range as well below average at first. Despite this his contribution was a net positive, considering the expectations. I'm sure the Braves were happy with his overall impact, and I was as well. Grade=B

Dan Uggla- What a crazy season this dude had. First half featured a triple slash worse than I could have ever imagined, hitting a paltry .185/.257/.365. However, the second half contained all sorts of Dan Uggla goodness, hitting a spectacular .296/.379/.569.

So, what changed for Dan? It appeared to me that his plate discipline became a lot better, as his walk rate did rise steadily as the season went on. However, I think the biggest thing that happened was that he stopped making contact with pitches off the plate when he offered. His 27.1% out of the zone swing percentage was far and away the worst of his career, and he made contact on 55.1% of those swings which was the highest percentage of his career. However, that percentage dropped from closer to 60% as the season hit the second half. Thus, when Dan made contact, he made harder contact which is backed up by his line drive rates in the 2nd half (16.7%, 16.9%, and 18.6% in July, August, and September respectively, as opposed to 14.3% in May and June and 12.6% in April). Overall, his season produced 2.5 fWAR, not a bad number, and means his 9 million salary this year turned out to be a bit of a bargain, as the market rate for WAR this off season was around 5 million per win. His defense was pretty bad, as expected, but he turned out to be a decent baserunner, and he came to the post every day. Overall though, we expected more, and his grade will reflect that. Grade=C+

Alex Gonzalez- While Dan Uggla turned in a half season of awful at the plate, Alex Gonzalez treated us to a whole season of it, single handedly undermining many a Braves rally by flailing helplessly at many a slider off the plate away. And why did this happen? Pretty simple really, as Alex's walk rate was its lowest in 10 years (even his putrid standards thinks 3.7% is awful), which he combined with the highest strikeout rate of his career. The combination of Larry Parrish's aggressive hitting teachings and Alex's aggressive hitting tendencies mixed about as well as oil and water. After checking out his K and BB numbers, it should surprise no one that Alex swung at 43.4% of pitches out of the strike zone, which was 2.5% higher than any other season of his career (which happened to be last year, when he also blew his previous career high/low out of zone swing percentage out of the water. Not a good trend for a 34 year old shortstop). To put that number in persepctive, it was 5th highest among qualified hitters, trailing legendary hackers Vladimir Guerrero and Miguel Olivo, Alfonso Soriano's steaming carcass, and Orioles center fielder Adam Jones. He also made more contact with pitches out of the zone than he ever had, which is just a terrible, terrible combination. That led to a .241/.270/.372, which is pretty awful even for a major league shortstop.

Alex did bring a little bit of value on the other side, as he played a terrific defensive shortstop throughout the year, especially in the first half. As the one plus defender on the infield, it was important for him to bring that day and day out, and for that he should be commended. UZR actually didn't like him much, listing him as league average at short, but Defensive Runs Saved had him at +15 runs in the field, second highest in the bigs and behind only defensive whiz Brendan Ryan. Fangraphs had him at 1.1 WAR, which probably speaks more to the lack of quality at shortstop in the bigs than any positive Alex did this season. The Braves will hopefully move on next year, as they have a guy in the minors who should be around league average defensively and will actually take a pitch in the minors. Grade=C-, thanks to his glove.

Chipper Jones-Chipper had a nice season for a 39 year old, posting a pretty decent line of .275/.344/.470, which showed a really nice rebound in the power department, as his ISO power was approaching .200 for the first time since 2008. He posted the lowest walk rate of his career however, which kind of mitigated his increase in power. Combining those aspects and a depressed run environment, his season was actually pretty similar to last year. The drop in plate discipline is a bit concerning, but it probably tells us that Chipper was actually feeling really good at the plate this year and was taking his hacks because of it. His BB rate was still 10%, which is above average, but pales in comparison to his career 14.3%. Because of this, I think Chipper could actually increase his value next year by taking more walks, which is a skill that shouldn't erode despite his age.

Chipper will be a bit of a question mark next year, as he will be 40, is very much injury prone, and is now a statue at 3rd base. He was never unbelievable over at 3rd, but I really thought his defense took a step back this year. Advanced metrics both had him very much below average as well. Next year, we will hopefully see another 130 games or so from Chipper, but I would like to see Fredi actually replace him late in a game with a lead to get a better fielder at 3rd (Prado, who is a terrific defensive 3rd baseman but fairly average in left). He almost never did this, and it would help with getting those final outs, as well as giving Chipper a bit of extra rest. Overall, though, his season was good, but not great. Grade- B-.

The Braves infield wasn't awful this year in most areas, but there was not really any standout performers this year either. When that is combined with a black hole at shortstop, it certainly left the Braves wanting a bit more. However, many of the players in place can very easily improve their performance a bit, with the 3 most likely spots being Uggla (will have a hard time repeating that awful 1st half), Freeman (only 21), and McCann (staying healthy). That doesn't even include shortstop, where getting any on base ability at all in place there will be a big improvement in 2012.

Quick Braves Thoughts: What Went Right, What Didn't

Heartbreaking end to the season for the Braves, as they capped an ugly September with a five game losing streak that allowed the St. Louis Cardinals to make up 4 games in 5 days and snatch the NL wild card from the Braves on the season's last day. Since the Braves had held sole possession of the NL wild card since the middle of June, it goes without saying that it was a pretty disheartening way to end the season. And looking back on things, its kind of shocking to see that the Braves won 89 games, yet plenty of things went wrong. But first, lets take a look at what went better than expected for Atlanta.

-Eric O'Flaherty, Jonny Venters, and Craig Kimbrel
Despite a bit of a struggle at the end, which may or may not have been due to overuse, this trio was awesome. They combined to put up 6.6 fWAR this year, which is an unheard of number for just 3 relievers. For comparison's sake, Cliff Lee and Clayton Kershaw each put up 6.8 fWAR in roughly the same amount of innings. That just about says it all. O'Flaherty posted the highest K rate of his career in tandem with the lowest walk rate, while also maintaining his extreme ground ball tendencies (55.5 %). Venters struck out almost 10 per 9 innings while also topping the league in groundball rate (an absurd 72.5%). And Kimbrel was better than both of them, striking out almost 15 per 9 while combining that with a 3.97 to 1 K/BB ratio. His FIP of 1.52 led all major league relievers who qualified, finishing .01 ahead of Jonathan Papelbon. Ironically, both blew saves when their team could least afford at last night. Strange game, this baseball.

-Brandon Beachy
It sure is nice when your organization is loaded with pitching prospects, and its even better when a guy no one has heard of coming in to the season turns out to be a keeper. Beachy struck out 10.74 batters per 9 innings, an outstanding number for anyone, much less a rookie. In addition, Beachy had to walk 9 guys in his last 10.1 innings just to get his BB per 9 ratio to 2.92. I doubt he ever becomes a true ace, but numbers like that are going to have him in somebody's rotation for many years to come. The next step in his development will be getting deeper into games, but that should come with a bit more experience. With 4 average to plus pitches and plus plus command, he looks like a border line number 2 starter or a very solid number 3. Lots to be excited about with Beachy.

-Freddie Freeman's bat
I didn't really know what to expect with Freddie at the plate this season, as he was very young and was a pretty aggressive hitter all through the minors. You never really know for sure until they hit the majors, but after 6 week adjustment period to the bigs, his bat was very solid. He is aggressive, but he knows what he is doing at the plate and hits an awful lot of line drives (23%). His 8.3% walk rate wasn't bad for a 21 year old rookie either. Freddie's youth and the fact that he has already shown the ability to make adjustments gives reason for optimism about his future. Freddie has some things to work on, mainly his range at first (he has the range of a statue) and his batting eye, but his rookie season wasn't a bad start at all

Tim Hudson and Chipper Jones could go in this category too, but I thought they did about what was expected. Chipper's power had a bit of a revival, but he had a disappointing decline in his walk rate which pretty much neglected the added power. And I always expect consistency and stability from Hudson, and this year was more of the same. He was fantastic, which is just what I and most Braves fans expected.

And what went wrong:

Injuries to Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens-
The pair of young right handers were stellar in the Braves starting rotation for the first half of the season. Hanson was absolutely stellar in the first half, posting a 2.44 ERA with better than a strikeout an inning and a K/BB ratio over 3 to 1. He also gave up less than 1 HR per 9 innings. All those stats say that he was the best Braves starter in the first half of the year, and not having him for the stretch run was a huge blow. Hanson's long term health is one of the biggest factors for the Braves' success for the future, as he has number on starter potential. As for Jurrjens, he was fantastic in the first half as well, posting a 1.87 ERA. He wasn't nearly as good as his ERA indicated, as he doesn't miss nearly enough bats, but his command was excellent, with just 25 walks in 110 innings. He had made improvements this year, and having him down the stretch instead of untested rookies would have been nice, possibly to save the bullpen a few innings. We will see about Jair's future with the Braves, but he's a quality middle of the rotation starter who could help a lot of teams.

-Derek Lowe
I don't think he pitched nearly as bad as his ERA says he did, but a pitcher's number one job is to keep runs from scoring, and in that regard, Derek Lowe failed miserably. Lowe's ERA was 5.05, and he was a disaster down the stretch in the time his team needed him most, posting an 8.75 ERA in September. For 15 million a year, that obviously isn't good enough. The Braves will try to deal him in the offseason I'm sure, but it won't be a very easy chore unfortunately. His K rate did improve, his FIP was actually a very solid 3.65, and he still kept the ball in the yard (.67 HR per 9 innings). Those are the numbers the Braves will be selling this offseason, and a team with a decent defense behind it could be tempted, as long as the Braves throw in plenty of money or perhaps package him with someone. To be continued.

-Offense
The Braves finished 26th out of 30 teams in OBP, their wOBA percentage was 23rd, and tied for 21st in wRC+. It was not pretty at all. Lets go through the Braves' every day lineup and take a look at the carnage from 2010 to 2011. Note on Michael Bourn, his stats will be 2011 with Astros and 2011 with Braves. I'll explain why a bit later

Bourn- 2011-.303/.363/.403 - .278/.321/.352
Prado-2010- .307/.350/.459 - 2011-.260/.302/.385
Jones- 2010-.265/.381/.426 - 2011- .275/.344/.470
Uggla-2010-.287/.369/.508 - 2011- .233/.311/.453
McCann- 2010- .269/.375/.453 - 2011- .270/.351/.466
Freeman- N/A rookie
Gonzalez- 2010- .250/.294/.447 - 2011-.240/.270/.372
Heyward-2010- .277/.393/.456 - 2011- .227/.319/.389

One theme here is that every single Brave hitter had a decrease in on base percentage from 2010 to 2011. The second theme here is that every single one of these Braves had a new hitting coach in 2011, one who preached aggressiveness at the plate. If every single hitter regresses from one year to the next (with the exception of Freeman obviously, as he was a minor league player last year), is it reasonable to believe that the hitting coach might have something to do with it? I think so, and thankfully, the Braves organization does too, as its already been announced Larry Parrish won't be back. All I can say is it was about 3 or 4 months too late.

Clemson Football Fails Despite Succeeding

Yesterday, for the second time in two weeks, saw many members of Clemson's School of Agriculture ran onto its football field, I guess for the purpose of inspecting how the grass was growing or something. In all seriousness, the Clemson fans had seen their team pull off an upset over a Florida State team that hasn't been relevant since some aging Floridians couldn't see their presidential ballot and a presidential recount happened because of it.

The Quorum ranks this as a poor Storming of the Field

Clemson skirted criticism last week despite a very shaky storming last week, when they ran onto the field after a beating a very average Auburn team. Auburn is the defending national champion and hadn't lost since 2009, but had surrendered 490 yards of total offense per game in their first two games, including 227 yards on the ground to Utah State. We can only speculate that Auburn won that Utah State game after Bobby Lowder made a payment directly into the bank account of God, but no one really knows for sure (thanks, JP). However, Clemson fans saw this Auburn victory over USU as a sign of Auburn's collective strength, as Utah State is usually ranked in the top 3 of D-1 teams based in Utah. It's clear that Auburn is very average, but you don't get to defeat the defending national champs very often, so they got a pass from criticism from the Quorum, whether warranted or not.

Clemson can't be let off the hook for this, especially since Clemson fans fancy themselves big time football fans when they are not driving their pickup trucks and going hunting. Clemson football is a religion to those people, and they follow it as closely as Tyrone Biggums follows his next crack rock lead. And for many, many years, this has led to extreme disappointment, as nobody underachieves like Clemson football. So perhaps their judgement has been skewed a bit, but that is no excuse.

Let's take a look at their opponent. Free Shoes University came into the game with a lofty ranking, after putting up a competitive showing against Oklahoma, although we should point out that Florida State never once convinced me or any other viewer that they ever had enough to win that game. They are what they are every year this millenium, which is a good not great team that will qualify for the BCS only if they win their conference. In addition, their starting quarterback was out injured, and he was replaced by a guy who might pass for a high school junior, and FSU coaches and personnel around the program have been saying all along that NEXT year was going to be their year, not this one. Also, Clemson has won the last five home games they have played against FSU. And again, FSU's program hasn't been relevant on a national level since 2000. Why, again, are you storming the field.

As for you, Clemson, we all know that you fancy yourselves an elite program within college football. You have some tradition, with 1 national championship, while also possessing one of the best game day atmospheres in all of college football. However, you are number one on everyone's list when people rank underachieving programs, as it is your birth right to underwhelm everyone's expectations of you. Thus, nobody takes you seriously, and this kills you, as you fancy yourself a big program.

Well, guess what? Everyone takes Clemson even less seriously than they did two days ago. Because storming the field after beating a good, not great, team, who, oh by the way, you had BEATEN 5 straight times on your home field coming into that game, only confirms you as a second rate program. Not only that, you stormed the field last week too, which confirms that every win that you get over a ranked opponent is seemingly a huge win, only cementing yourself a second rate program once again. It was a big win in the conference, sure, but it does absolutely nothing to increase your worth nationally. Save your stormings for a conference opponent that is nationally relevant, competing for national titles on a regular basis. Oh damn, that's kind of an oxymoron when you play in the ACC isn't it?

Even when Clemson is successful, they continue to fail. It's the only way.

Having Fun At Jim Bowden's Expense

Jim Bowden does a chat every week with ESPN, and it is a time when I get to decide whether I'm smarter than a former MLB GM. In some cases, I really think I am, and many others as well. These are actual questions to Bowden in his chat, with his actual answers. I comment on why he's very, very wrong.

Jim, if the vote were held today, would you be voting for Justin Verlander for AL MVP?

Jim Bowden

(12:17 PM)

I'm not a big fan of giving the MVP to a pitcher. Pitchers's get the Cy Young and Position players should get the MVP Award. Jose Bautista, Curtis Granderson, Miguel Cabrera or A-Gone/Ellsbury...one of them should get it...while Verlander celebrates CY Young

This is dumb. Bowden wants to redefine an award that is already pretty clearly defined. Most Valuable Player means most valuable player, not most valuable hitter. Just because you disagree with how the award is defined doesn't mean you vote on something else. Pitchers should be considered, because, you know, they are baseball players. I don't think he has a vote, thankfully, because it would be a problem if people were voting on different criteria for the same award. And pitcher's should get consideration for the award, as some pitchers have already faced more hitters than a hitter will make plate appearances in a full season.

What is up with John Lackey lately? He looks like a viable post season roster guy. Can't say the same for A. J. Burnett though. Can we EVER have enough pitching and defense?

Jim Bowden

(12:20 PM)

All Lackey ever does is win....don't worry about the ERA....he'll figure out how to win the 6-5 game. He competes. I agree that Lackey has a much better chance of a post-season start than Burnett has with the Yankees

God damn it. Some guys might be more competitive than others, but the pitcher is finding a way to win the game 6-5 because he is a crappy pitcher with a great offense behind him, not because he wants it more. Question for you Jim. Why doesn't Felix Hernandez win? Is it because he doesn't want it? Or he doesn't know how? Or is because King Felix isn't a good enough hitting coach? I'll take the latter, thanks. You can have your 32 year old pitcher with a bad contract, declining ground ball rate, and declining K rate who gets wins because he's on a good team. I'll take pitcher wins for what they are worth, which is squadoosh.

Raphael (NJ)

Why is Bautista the clear MVP winner to some? Granderson has superior numbers across the board, save for batting average, and plays for a winning team.

Jim Bowden

(12:24 PM)

I would vote Granderson over Bautista right now because of the "team winning" ingredient

Jose Bautista:.312/.452/.640, 7.8 fWAR

Curtis Granderson: .278/.376/.595, 6.8 fWAR

First off, how dumb is this commenter asking the question? But look at the RBIs! Granderson has so many! Sheesh. Granderson makes an out almost 8% more times than Bautista. Bautista has a higher slugging percentage too. Jose Bautista can't help it that his teammates aren't nearly as good as Granderson's. As for Bowden, the team winning ingredient? What does that have to do with being the most valuable player? Apparently Bautista hasn't been good enough because he is supposed to carry 1000 lbs of deadweight and is only capable of carrying 800 lbs, while Granderson is expected to carry 500 lbs but is carrying 600 lbs. I hope that analogy made sense, and why should Bautista be punished for this. Isn't carrying 800 lbs more valuable than carrying 600?

Dan (Philly)

I know he doesnt have the power numbers to compete with the other MVP candidates but doesnt Victorino deserve a little love for MVP given that when all others have been injured he has been the most consistent player on what looks like a 110 win team? He is hitting .313, playing great D, has decent power numbers and has a very good slugging % for a guy with his frame.

Jim Bowden

(12:56 PM)

I think Ryan Howard is the Phillies MVP over Victorino

Baseball GMs and managers can be a dumb lot. Tony Reagins traded for 4 years and 80 million dollars of Vernon Wells' carcass, and wasn't tricked into doing so. I love making fun of Fredi Gonzalez. Tony LaRussa is the game's best at overmanaging. One GM even compared the players union to Al Qaeda. But this comment is just awesome. FanGraphs has Victorino at exactly 5 wins more valuable than in Howard this season, and Victorino has played 26 fewer games. Victorino is batting .309/.382/.539 while playing terrific defense at a premium position, while also adding value as a terrific baserunner. Howard is batting .251/.341/.481 while playing terrible defense at the easiest position on the diamond, in addition to being a bad baserunner. Bowden would argue that Howard has more power, which I would debunk by saying Victorino has the exact same ISO power as Howard. Bowden would then say he's driven in 99 runs, to which I would laugh in his face and walk away, after pointing out that Howard wouldn't have nearly as many RBIs if Victorino wasn't on base. RBIs are not a skill, they are completely circumstance. And Howard has 5 years and 125 million left on his contract. Jim, every resource at your disposal for you job as an analyst for ESPN would lend itself to you actually being informed and prepared for a question like this. Most get paid to do their job. You should approach your job that way too.

Ignorance like this is how you lose your job as GM for 2 different teams. Ignorance is also what allows you to compare the players union to Al-Qaeda. Yes, Jim Bowden was the one who said that. Bowden does a weekly chat with ESPN, which means I could be writing again next week.

Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor Showing They Belong

A lot has been made of the Braves' stable of young pitching, and rightfully so. It was easy to make an argument that it was baseball's best group of up and coming starters, with Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino, and Randall Delgado getting most of the attention. However, what made the group really formidable is not only the quality of the pitching prospects, but also the quantity of them, which is being shown by Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor's performance in the big leagues this year.

The 24 year old Beachy has been in the starting rotation for the majority of this season, with his only set back being an oblique strain that kept him out for about a month in May and June. The least regarded out of the Braves' pitching prospects coming into the season, Beachy hit the ground running with an outstanding opening outing against the Milwaukee Brewers, when he pitched 6 strong innings with 1 ER, 1 BB, and 7 Ks. Beachy's biggest strength is outstanding command, and he his shown that at the big league level, sporting a 2.73 BB rate this season, which plays nicely with 9.94 K rate. Beachy is sneaky quick with his fastball, topping out at around 93, while also developing his slider nicely, which has rounded his arsenal into a quality 4 pitch array. All four pitches rate about average or better which allows for a guy like him to have success at the big league level despite not having "explosive stuff." His K rate shows that his stuff is plenty good enough, and combining it with good command makes him an above average starter. He has accumulated 1.5 fWAR in 18 starts, which would put him on a 3 WAR pace over a full season of starts. Not bad for an undrafted college player only 3 years ago.

Beachy's one concern in the future will be keeping the ball in the park, as he has been bit by the HR bug in recent starts. Beachy is a fly ball pitcher, sporting a ground ball rate of just 31.6%, so it will be key for him to continue to be a swing and miss pitcher with great command. He will give up some home runs just because of the sheer quantity of fly balls he allows, but the fewer extra baserunners allowed will help to offset that though. There is a lot to be encouraged about, but this will need monitoring in the future.

Also making his presence known this season has been Mike Minor, regarded by most as the 4th of the "Big 4" Braves' pitching prospects. Drafted in the top 10 out of Vanderbilt (go Dores) in 2009, Minor was regarded as a bit of a reach, as he had had a subpar season by his standards while also demonstrating a decline in velocity. However, the Braves made a minor (no pun intended) mechanical adjustment to his delivery, and he was topping out at 94 by the time he hit the farm system that summer. His development was so pleasing to Braves' brass that they refused to include him any deal this summer, despite all of the Braves pitching depth.

And that trust has paid off to a degree this summer. Despite making only 9 starts, FanGraphs has estimated his contribution at 1.6 WAR this season. That number is a little bit off because it incorporates FIP into it, and Minor's is extremely low because he hasn't allowed a home run this season. When setting his HR rate at league average, his FIP rates at 3.44, which is still an excellent number. Minor has pitched well, striking out over 8 per 9 innings while also sporting a 1.30 ground ball to fly ball ratio. His BB rate will have to improve, but he has been better with that recently after a rocky first outing in Milwaukee.

One of Minor's downfalls has been the fact that he has been extremely unlucky, sporting a .372 BABIP and a ghastly 29.9% line drive rate this season. Those are numbers that won't continue, as his 8+ K rate shows that he has good enough stuff to avoid more hard contact than he has to this point, which means I'll chalk it up to variance until I see a bigger sample. However, some of the fly balls will leave the yard at some point, which will suppress some of the positive regression that Minor will eventually have. Despite all this, his performance suggests he's a keeper, with 3 average or better offerings from the left side. His presence is key for the Braves, as it allows the Braves to be patient with Tommy Hanson and his shoulder problems. Shoulders are nothing to trifle with, and the Braves should wait as long as they need to before letting Hanson pitch again, especially because they have a capable fill in. The drop off from Hanson to Minor isn't huge, and with a comfortable wild card lead and all the value in future seasons a healthy Hanson could provide, its better to wait on him than rush him back.

Beachy and Minor have given the Braves even more reason to be excited about the future, as their performance is showing they are already capable big league starters. Considering their ages, there should be even more development. If these guys are in the back end of the Braves' rotation in 2 years while performing similarly to their output this year, there is reason to smile when thinking about the future. The fact that they are cost controlled only makes it better.

George Sherrill is Baseball's Best...

LOOGY. Unfortunately, I do wonder whether Fredi Gonzalez knows it. He's only pitched 4 times in August, which is odd for a guy who is death against left handed batters. Shouldn't he be pitching in more games, when all he should be called upon is to get 1 guy out? Those type of guys could probably throw 100 games a year if asked, as long as they are only used to get one or two guys out at a time. 100 games I suppose could be pushing it, but 90? I think he could handle it if used properly. However, it is tough for me to remember how many times Fredi has actually brought him into the game to get one left hander out. I have missed some games, and I know it has happened, but I also know that it should have happened far more frequently than it has this season.

However, I think I have an idea why Fredi hasn't gone to him more. My theory is that Fredi actually thinks Sherrill hasn't been very good against left handers. Here are Sherrill's triple slash lines vs. righties and lefties:

RH: .236/.348/.364
LH: .270/.280/.351

Numbers are clearly better vs. LHs. However, look at that batting average against. LH batters actually have a higher batting average against Sherrill than RH batters do. And knowing that Fredi is no sabermetrician, this is what I think he sees when he doesn't bring in George Sherrill to pitch to LH batters (like, say, Tyler Colvin yesterday in the 6th inning). It's too bad, because George Sherrill is having one of the best LOOGY seasons in recent memory when you delve deeper into the numbers.

Going back to 2002, which is all the data FanGraphs will give to me (and all the data I need to make my point), 2011 George Sherrill has the lowest FIP against LHBs of any pitcher who has thrown at least 10 innings pitched against lefties in one single season. Lowest of all of them, at .59. Yes that is .59, and it is supported by Sherrill's preposterous 31 to 1 K/BB ratio. So for those counting at home, he's walked 1 of 75 LHBs he's faced this year, while striking out 31 of 75 batters he's faced (40.8%). Only Aroldis Chapman and David Robertson have struck out a higher percentage of LHBs faced this year with more than 10 IP against lefties. And for comparison's sake, 31 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio blows those 2 out of the water. The only thing that doesn't support Sherrill's dominance of lefties is his mind numbing .442 BABIP, which makes no sense considering how good his stuff has been vs. lefties this season.

With Scott Proctor finally gone from the bullpen, 2 things I will be watching will be a) when and how Peter Moylan comes back from injury, and b) whether Fredi Gonzalez trusts George Sherrill in big spots against a LH batter. Because everything you could look at with the exception of batting average against and BABIP suggests that he absolutely should. A Braves bullpen filled with riches has a diamond in that I don't think he knows about.

Mitch Williams Shows His Ignorance in SI

"The fact that Ryan Howard has 75 RBIs right now is a testament to pitcher's ignorance. Pitchers continue to pitch to Howard because they think they can strike him out. If he stops striking out, they're going to stop pitching to him."

I wish they would have put this quote in "They Said It," but that spot was already taken, deservedly, by Derek Dooley's gem of a quote, "The best athletic director I ever worked for was at Louisiana Tech." I realize he is no longer employed by the university, but didn't Mike Hamilton hire Dooley for his current position? Ouch.

But anyway, I've listened to Mitch Williams one time on MLB on Fox, and was extremely amused about how incredulous he was after Homer Bailey threw a 2 strike "fastball" to Derek Lowe that led to a run scoring double, harping on how he needed to throw a slider for about an inning and half. Fact is, Bailey did throw a slider, and he hung it, which led to a run scoring double. The easiest way to tell what pitch was thrown is either look at the radar gun afterwards, or actually watch the replay on your monitor. As a former pitcher, it should be easy to spot for him, but I got to laugh at his expense for an inning and a half, which made me happy.

The point Williams is trying to make is that pitchers were really dumb (before acquiring Hunter Pence) to keep pitching to Howard because of there being a lot of weak hitters hitting behind him. The fact that Howard strikes out a lot is, according to Williams, dupes pitchers into pitching to him enabling him to use his elite RBI skills to drive in those runs that Philadelphia desperately needs.

RBI skills. Ryan Howard is really working hard over in that dugout making sure that Victorino (.384 OBP) and Utley (.379 OBP) are on base so he can drive them in with a hit, groundout, flyball, whatever. Jeff Francouer drove in 103 runs once when he made outs in over 70% of his plate appearances. A hitter that didn't make outs that often would have undoubtedly driven in even more than the 103 that Francouer did that season. Ryan Howard doesn't make outs as prodigiously as Francouer, but his .338 OBP this year represents that he indeed can be retired with runners on base, which is why pitchers pitch to him. From 2006-2009, Howard drove in at least 136 runs a season. Some of that has to do with his power. The majority of it has to do with on base machine Chase Utley hitting directly in front of him. A lot easier to drive in runs when somebody is always on base. But lets make sure that dullards like Mitch Williams continue to spew ignorance about how an elite hitter can be deduced by their RBI totals. Howard is a good hitter, mainly because of his plus plus power, but far from a great one.

Pitchers pitch to Ryan Howard because he has holes in his swing and he can be pitched to. Why walk or pitch around a guy that can be retired? Outs are too valuable to be putting extra baserunners on to avoid an elite RBI guy. Elite RBI guys are only made by the men hitting in front of them. There are times to walk Ryan Howard to pitch to a worse hitter. However, why continually avoid a hitter with a .350 wOBA and a .338 OBP? Outs are too valuable, and giving up an extra baserunners isn't worth it in order to avoid a slightly above average hitting first baseman.

Oh and one last thing. How much money is owed to a first baseman hitting .250/.338/.482, is 31 years old, a terrible fielder, below average base runner, and has produced 1.1 fWAR this year, after 1.3 fWAR all of last year? 5 years, 125 million dollars. Sorry Phillies, I couldn't resist.

Heyward Sitting For Jose Constanza?

It's stupid, moronic, idiocy, and whatever other adjective you want to put in there, unless Heyward has some underlying injury concern that Fredi and the Braves aren't letting us know about. Judging by the fact that Heyward took the field as a defensive replacement in the game today, I'd say he must be fine.

Heyward is struggling this year, and he we should expect more out of him. But baseball is a funny game where players can slump for months without a seeming end in sight. It is the nature of the beast. Even despite his obvious struggles, Jason Heyward has a wRC+ of exactly 100, which is a metric that is a linear weight that sets the league average at 100. So, by this metric, and most others out there, Jason Heyward has been a league average hitter this season. Some teams would kill to have a just turned 22 year old league average hitter in their lineup.

I agree with trying to do what it takes to get Heyward out of his slump, but the one thing that can't be done is sit him, which I'm afraid is going to start happening more and more. Can you imagine what would have happened if Fredi had sat Dan Uggla or backed off using Craig Kimbrel during their struggles? Do we see where they are right now? Heck, Freddie Freeman belongs in that group as well. Baseball players go through struggles, and sometimes a day off helps. However, sitting players down multiple days in a row, especially a franchise changing talent like Heyward, just can't happen. If Fredi or Wren thinks the team can get by with Constanza manning the outfield in an every day role for a bit (I'll explain why this isn't smart in a second), then send Heyward to AAA for 10 days to work on his swing against worse pitching and out of the spotlight. Judging by his batted ball numbers (only 13.3% line drives, and over 24% of his fly balls have been infield pop ups this season), he could probably use the work and a fresh take from some other coaching. But for goodness sakes, if he's healthy, he has got to be playing, because he is a franchise changing talent and because his track record indicates that he is a much better player than what he is showing. .393 OBPs don't just happen for a full season. See Uggla, Freeman, and Kimbrel. See Hanley Ramirez of the Marlins. Throwing the more talented player going through a slump to the bench isn't going to help matters much.

As for Constanza, if the Braves think he is capable of starting in the middle of a pennant race on a consistent basis, they are going to get bitten in the ass. His hot streak coming into today's game has consisted of 1 line drive out of 16 batted balls, 13 grounders, and 2 fly balls. He also has 1 bunt attempt, which we can call a grounder. 7 of his 14 ground balls have found holes, leading to his sterling .400 batting average. He also hasn't walked. It won't last. I promise. Yesterday's results don't mean much when the process to obtain those results is flawed. In about 7 days, its going to lead to Constanza slumping with Heyward still doing the same. Fat lot of good that does the Braves in the end. Constanza is a 7 year minor leaguer for a reason, and Heyward is regarded as one of the best young players in the game for a reason. Considering they both have track records, I'm confident the Braves know this too. But why am I still worried about it? Cause Fredi Gonzalez has a track record of being unpredictable this year. Damn it.

Fredi Making Me Insane Again

Has everyone seen the Braves lineup for tonight? Top four as follows:

Bourn
Prado
Freeman
Uggla

Looks good to me. Lefty-righty-lefty-righty. Two good table setters followed by your two best run producers currently available. But, I wouldn't write a blog post about that:

Gonzalez
Conrad
Ross
Constanza
Lowe

Oh boy. I can't wait to see Alex Gonzalez flailing at pitches with runners on base. I get it, he's 7 for 15 against Lannan in his career. It doesn't mean you move a guy up to 5th who has been struggling for 2 months. Fredi says 'But he's been saving us runs with his glove all season.' My response, 'he can't transfer those runs he saves into runs scored.' (Fredi didn't actually say that about his lineup, but would you be that surprised if he said it after the game tonight when asked about it?) Maybe Fredi did it because Gonzo was almost a league average hitter 2 different seasons in his 12 year career. I'll take my 12 year sample of Alex Gonzalez being a crappy hitter, while Fredi can have his 15 at bats against Lannan.

Next up is Brooks Conrad, who has never been a good hitter right handed and is a bit of a butcher with his glove. Good thing he is playing 3rd base tonight with a ground ball pitcher on the mound. He could do something with his bat, but I don't think this is the time to get him in the lineup. Ross should be starting and probably be hitting fifth given some of the turd that is starting tonight, despite not being a great hitter in his career against lefties. And Jose Constanza has stolen the heart of Fredi Gonzalez, as he doesn't belong in a major league lineup. I shouldn't be surprised by this, however, as Julio Lugo and Scott Proctor are still on the roster. Jason Heyward should not be left out of the lineup in favor 27 year old non prospect career minor leaguer who was allowed to become a minor league free agent by a bad team last year (Cleveland).

Against lefties, Fredi Gonzalez's options are pretty limited. Not a lot he can do about that. However, he can do better than this, and a lot of people know it. However, one game is a small sample, so perhaps the Braves can overcome Fredi's disservice to the organization to get themselves a victory tonight.

Fredi Gonzalez Is Still an Idiot

I'm still steaming over last nights game. Tie game going to the bottom of the 9th, and the top of the Reds lineup due to bat in the inning. So Gonzalez summons Scott Linebrink to take the ball and face the most dangerous hitters in the Reds lineup (oh wait, that was Edgar Renteria batting 2nd. 2 out of the 3 were dangerous, but the point still stands). This is just stupid on so many levels when your best reliever is sitting in the pen, waiting for that save opportunity that could possibly be on the horizon in extra innings. Fredi is a firm believer in that you can't use your closer in the bottom of the 9th in a tie ballgame on the road, and it is a policy as stupid as Mike Woodson/Larry Drew's first half 2 foul rule.

It is preposterous that somebody hasn't been able to convince Fredi that this policy is wrong in his 5 plus years of managing. Basic mathematicians know that the road team loses 100% of the time when the home team scores a run in the bottom of the 9th (or later) of a tie game. In order to win the game, the road team must score at least 1 more run to break the tie. Logically, the road team must be able to bat again in order to score, as I'm struggling to find an instance where a baseball team gains a run on their opposition while playing defense. Combining all of this information, why would one choose to use a mediocre reliever over your best one? In order to have a chance to win the game, you have to score at least one more run, and you have a 0% chance to score a run when you don't bat again. In the immortal words of Herman Edwards, "YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!"

If any of you readers disagree, then you could be a major league manager someday. In the mean time, I will drive myself crazy trying to get my head around this. Extend the game first, and worry about closing it later. Which brings me to another point. If the save wasn't a stat, would this line of thinking even exist? It is a pretty pointless statistic, and one that has hand cuffed managers into using their best relievers in predetermined roles, rather than in the highest leverage situations. I've covered this in previous posts, but having a 3 run lead in the 9th is a time where the team in the lead wins over 90% of the time. What is the pitcher saving? Why should we celebrate that reliever not sucking terribly on that particular day? It isn't an entirely meaningless stat, as I would much rather have my best reliever pitching in the last inning of a game that I'm leading. However, the biggest point in the ball game can occur in the 7th or 8th inning, rather than the 9th. Why make your best reliever for these situations only because it isn't the 9th? It makes no sense, and the save statistic is what causes this line of thinking. Doing away with it would make the game better, but there is no way that will happen. Sigh.

Be Thankful For Dan Uggla, for He is Not Chone Figgins

Dan Uggla has been beyond awful this season, which has been documented on this blog multiple times. However, with the Braves heading to Seattle for a series this week, we can focus on someone who has been significantly worse than Dan Uggla this season. Chone Figgins signed a 4 year deal for over 10 million a season with the Seattle Mariners after an extraordinary final season with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in 2009, one that culminated in him putting up 6.9 WAR. Figgins was an excellent player on all fronts that season, posting a .395 on base percentage, playing terrific defense at 3rd base, and stealing 42 bases. He had combined for 7.2 WAR in the 2 seasons before that one, so he had a pretty good track record of being a really solid player to begin with, and posting fantastic numbers in a contract year led to him getting paid handsomely. His combination of speed, batting eye, and defense made him an extremely attractive option for Seattle's innovative run prevention front office strategy.

However, that contract has blown up in their faces, as Figgins combined a drop in walk rate with some horrific defense at a new position (2nd base) to produce just 1.1 WAR last year, and this year he has taken his suckiness to a whole new level. His batting eye, once well above average, has completely abandoned him, as his walk rate is just 5.9% this year, down from 10.5% in 2010. Considering Figgins has never had any power, his offensive value is tied up in how much he gets on base. He's not doing it this year, with a ghastly .235 OBP, and that makes him a complete liability in every sense of the word.

Does this drop in walk rate sound similar to an underachieving hitter with the Braves? Want to know some more similarities? Figgins' ground ball rate is the highest of his career this year, just like Dan Uggla. Its not the worst thing in the world for Figgins to hit the ball on the ground, as he doesn't have any power and can use his legs to get on base. However, that ground ball rate has gone up at the expense of his line drive rate. Figgins has always hit a lot of line drives, and his 18.5% line drive rate would represent the worst of his career by over 2 full points. Grounders are not a terrible thing for a hitter like Figgins, unless they come at the expense of line drives. Unfortunately, that is exactly what has happen for Chone.

But wait, there is more. Related to the batting eye problems mentioned earlier, Figgins is swinging at over 25% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone to him. In 2009, it was just 15%, and it was just over 20% last year. Swinging at bad pitches is not a recipe for success, but it is a death sentence when combined with this next factoid. Chone Figgins' contact rate on balls outside the strike zone is an ungodly 84.5% this season, far and away the highest mark of his career. Putting the two together, swinging at bad pitches and making contact with most of them is just not a way to succeed, as it most likely is going to lead to weakly hit grounders for easy outs (unless you are Vlad Guererro in his prime).

These changes in approach has led to a triple slash line of .188/.235/.252, good for -1.2 WAR on the season even after factoring in a relative rebound in his defensive performance this year. For comparison's sake, Dan Uggla sits at .180/.247/.339 and -.4 WAR. When your numbers this season are without question worse than Dan Uggla's, you have some problems. Figgins' BABIP will rise a bit from its current .213 level to help his batting average at some point, but his contract is really looking like a sunk cost for the Mariners, especially since Figgins is already 33 years old. If Figgins can get back to taking more pitches, it would really help the Mariners in their fight for the postseason, as they need all the help they can get on offense, even after top prospect Dustin Ackley's promotion.

Thoughts on the US Gold Cup Run

I don't write a whole lot about soccer to this point, despite loving the game, as I really don't follow any one team or groups of teams to write a decent opinion or observation on any of it. However, US soccer is different, as I've been following the Gold Cup very closely and definitely have some thoughts. The Gold Cup started decently enough with a win over Canada, but disaster struck with a loss to Panama, followed by a 1-0 win over Guadeloupe where some things improved but finishing was lacking (or Dempsey was lacking, both would work). However, I think some things have been confirmed and others have been learned at this point, after a their best effort of the Gold Cup against Jamaica on Sunday:

The US Defense is Better with Carlos Bocanegra in Central Defense-

The difference has been noticeable in my opinion, as things seem much more collected and calm with the captain organizing things in the center. Tim Ream isn't a bad player, especially because he brings something to the table that most of the other center backs in the pool don't (above average ball skills and distribution), but he has been just ok for NYRB this season and isn't ready to be a starter at the national level at this point. He will get better, but it was not ideal to pair him with Clarence Goodson, who is fairly inexperienced at the international level as well. The two had some rough moments, and things just seemed to be a little off in the back with that partnership. However, Boca has stablized the central defense with his experienced presence, and the US is better for it.

In addition, it has allowed the U.S. to get more on the left flank, as Boca just isn't much of an attacking option. Moving him centrally has allowed Eric Lichaj to get on the field, and he has impressed to date. With good speed and a willingness to take on defenders, Lichaj has made some good runs forward to supplement the attack, and defense has been good as well, as he has a strong lower body and a willingness to mix it up. Is he the answer at left back? As a natural right back and right footer, I'm skeptical, but I'm always appreciative when a US left back gives back to back good performances in a US jersey, and Lichaj's done that. Well done by him.

Tim Howard is Really Good-

But we knew that already.

The Team is Still Lacking In Striking Options-

This isn't a surprise by any means, but when you are having to go to an 18 year old 11 minutes into a game to lead the line as a single striker, there are some problems at the position. Agudelo did really well considering the circumstances and is a very talented player, but he isn't ready for that responsibility. His ability to run at players and his speed definitely bring something to the table, but the hold up play necessary from a single striker will probably be lacking from an option as young as Agudelo going forward. However, because of the lack of options, Bob Bradley doesn't have a whole lot of choices. I will be interested to see what Bradley does in Wednesday's semifinal against Panama, whether he keeps Kljestan in the lineup and deploys Dempsey out wide, or if he stick with Bedoya and deploys Dempsey centrally. Which leads to my next observation...

Alejandro Bedoya Brings Something Different-

And that change was very positive in my opinion. The inclusion of winger helped out the Americans, as there was a little more space in the middle with Bedoya willing to stay wide. Sometimes the center of the pitch can get clustered for the U.S., as both Dempsey and Donovan like to float to the center in search of the ball. Bedoya's willingness to stay wide gave the U.S. a bit more room centrally, and he did a nice job of moving off the ball and running tirelessly. More chances were created in the first half than at any point during the Gold Cup, and I think Bedoya contributed to that. The Jamaican defense had to account for him at all times because of his tireless running, and because his skills bring something of a contrast to what the U.S. already has, I think he should get the start on the right Wednesday night.

I'm Fascinated by the Possibility of Jermaine Jones against Mexico-

Jermaine has played his best soccer in a US jersey in this tournament, which culminated in his best game yesterday against Jamaica. I figured that if healthy, he was the best option to play alongside Michael Bradley, considering his experience playing at the highest level in Europe. He is still prone to dumb yellow cards and anger issues in general (and always will be), but he brings a range of passing that the United States hasn't had in the central midfield in a long time. Plus, he is a fierce tackler, and people are always aware of him in the center of the park. I would think that one of the best ways to take Mexico out of their game is to have a big, strong, snarling dog in the center of the field, which is exactly what Jermaine Jones is. If that matchup comes to fruition, his physical nature will be a huge key in keeping the smaller, skillful Mexican midfielders off their game. I'm very intrigued by that possibility.

The US Will Go as Clint Dempsey Goes-

The one man that is consistently in the middle of everything for the US is Clint Dempsey, and I can't help but think he is the key to a Gold Cup Championship. He hasn't always played well in the tournament, but he has consistently been involved. Against Jamaica, he had 6 shots on goal as opposed to everyone else having no more than one. Clint's time at Fulham has improved his ability to find scoring chances, and he is the only player at this point who consistently finds those opportunities, especially with Landon Donovan not being at his best in this tournament. The only way for the United States to play at their highest level is for Dempsey to be the central attacking figure, and his ability to consistently be involved will go along way in determining the US' fate in this tournament. Floating wide, cutting inside, playing alongside Agudelo or Altidore up top, it doesn't matter where he is on the field. The only thing that does is whether he is involved and impactful.

Scott Proctor is Who We Thought He Was

And that is a terrible pitcher. He's been that way pretty much his entire career, as he seems to be living off the fact that he had one decent year for the Yankees in 2006. However, because he was one of the only decent pitchers in that bullpen not named Mariano Rivera, Joe Torre went back to him over and over again, piling up 102 innings that season. After riding him again for 83 more appearances (where his 3.65 ERA masked what a bad year he had that season, as he benefited from some seriously good fortune), Proctor predictably got hurt and missed part of 2009 and all of 2010. Since coming back from injury, he has continued to be terrible, which was predictable because that was exactly what he was before he got hurt. To show my point, Proctor has posted an FIP below 4.97 just once in his career, which was that 2006 season mentioned above. His career FIP is 4.88, his career GB rate is just 31.6%, and his career BB rate is an extremely mediocre 4.07 against a fairly average 7.65 K rate. Basically, these numbers indicate that Scott Proctor is a very poor man's Scott Linebrink, which isn't really a good thing.

Meanwhile, Fredi Gonzalez keeps going back to Scott Proctor, as he must see that shiny 2.38 ERA and all that veteran experience from his time with the Yankees. Proctor was called upon in a high leverage situation last night and failed miserably, giving up a game tying 3 run homer to Scott Hairston, who is the epitome of average. With the Braves struggling to score runs, it is inevitable that everyone in the bullpen is going to pitch in some high leverage situations, including the Scott Proctor. However, the frustrating thing about that is a much better option appears to be in AAA.

We have seen Cory Gearrin some during this baseball season, and it really is time that we see more. Gearrin sports a solid 3.60 ERA in his 13 appearances (15 innings), while also sporting some excellent peripheral numbers to go along with that. Gearrin's K rate in a limited major league sample size is an outstanding 11.4 per 9 innings, which when combined with a 3.6 BB rate leads to a very good 3.17 K/BB ratio. In addition, his ground ball rate was almost 62 %. What's not to like here? Fredi must not have liked it when he gave up a couple of runs to help blow a lead to the San Diego Padres. I don't really know. But it is clear to me that the Braves need another right handed reliever in their pen, particularly one who can keep the ball on the ground. When that guy could be in the organization already, well, you can see why I'm frustrated.

Cory Gearrin may end up not being the answer. However, judging by the way he has pitched this season in limited appearances, he deserves more chances, especially when one right handed pitcher in the bullpen already isn't any good. Basically, Proctor needs to be stopped before he costs the Braves a valuable win, because it is coming if he stays with this team. Everybody knows it, except Fredi Gonzalez and Frank Wren. Damn it.

Eric O'Flaherty Steps Up His Game

Ever since being acquired from the Seattle Mariners for peanuts before the 2009 season, Eric O'Flaherty has been a productive and reliable reliever for the Atlanta Braves. Mainly relied on to get left handers out, he also could be called upon to pitch the 7th inning when situations called for it, helping bridge the gap to guys like Billy Wagner, Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, and others. His role has changed just a bit this year, as the absence of Peter Moylan due to injury has moved him up the pecking order, being Fredi Gonzalez's 1B set up man, to Jonny Venters 1A. Because of Moylan's injury and the Braves' anemic offense, Gonzalez has had no choice but to ride the trio of O'Flaherty, Venters, and Kimbrel like rented mules, and thankfully, the least heralded of the trio has stepped up to the task.

O'Flaherty's ERA stands at a tidy 1.47 at the moment, and although that doesn't reflect his true talent level, he has made some improvements to his game. The first item that stands out is his improved command, as O'Flaherty's K rate currently sits at a career high 8.22 per nine innings, while his BB rate also stands at an all time low 2.64. The improved command has helped O'Flaherty get out of some jams, both of his doing and others. Also key is his ability to keep the ball on the ground, which is a common trait of most Atlanta pitchers these days. 53% of O'Flaherty's batted balls are on the ground, helping to suppress the chances for extra base hits (as evidenced by the .330 slugging percentage for opposing hitters against him), as well as inducing double play grounders. GB rates over 50% combined with a K/BB ratio over 3 to 1 is a recipe for success, and O'Flaherty's ability to combine those two skills has been a boost to the Braves' pen.

The second thing that has changed is O'Flaherty's pitch selection, one in which he is dialing up the fastball over 70% of the time. The fastball has always been his best pitch, as he has solid command to both sides of the plate with it, while also getting good sink. The fact that he is using it more is only helping him, as it is keeping his walks down while also improving the effectiveness of his slider, which he doesn't have to show as much anymore. Despite averaging 91.6 on the radar gun with his fastball, O'Flaherty has a deceptive delivery in which he hides the ball well, which helps his fastball appear a little quicker to a hitter. Since he has excellent fastball command, it makes sense to use the pitch more, and he has used it with great results this season.

O'Flaherty's continued effectiveness will be a key for the Braves, especially if they continue to struggle scoring runs. Having 3 lights out relievers at the back of the pen is one of the Braves' biggest advantages over the rest of the league, and O'Flaherty's use of his fastball has been a key reason why. If the Braves' can find a reliable right handed reliever other than Kimbrel, that advantage will only increase.

2011 Dan Uggla makes 2010 Nate McLouth Feel Good About Himself

Dan Uggla has been off the charts bad this year. In fact, he has been so bad that he has pretty much made me forget how bad Nate McLouth was last year, when the Braves key acquisition "hit" .190/.297/.322. This got me thinking, and this question is quite painful for Braves' fans, but it needs to be asked. And that question is, has Dan Uggla been worse this year than Nate McLouth was last year? I think these guys can be compared well, as each were excellent offensive players before joining the Braves, before seeing a sudden drop in production for mysterious reasons.

Uggla's disastrous May and awful start to June has made this a race, and it may be one that is Uggla is winn.., er, losing. Let's start with McLouth and recap where he was before his implosion in 2010. In his 3 prior years combined, McLouth had put up an excellent triple slash of .265/.359/.467, while also making an all star appearance in 2008 on the back of a whopping 76 extra base hits (and also being the only good player on the Pirates, but we won't count against him for that). McLouth produced 3.9 WAR in that season despite some disastrous defense, and overall in those 3 years produced 8.9 WAR in basically 2 and a half seasons (he made just 382 plate appearances for the Pirates in 2007). Nate was a very good player, and one who was going to help the Braves add some punch to an outfield that needed some.

Then, 2010 happened, and I don't think anyone can really tell you what is to blame for it. McLouth's triple slash from 2010 is listed above, and that was good enough for a paltry .283 wOBA. I have a feeling that McLouth's collapse in his age 28 season is one of the worst one in recent memory, especially that age 28 is supposed to be one of a player's prime seasons, when he is playing at his peak output. To collapse of that magnitude is something that you don't see terribly often, and one that left me and many other observers out of ideas as to what was going on. To his credit, McLouth never shied away from the criticism and owned up to it, and he has at least rebounded to be a little bit above replacement level this year, which is a lot better than his 2010 season was. Anything more that they get from him will be gravy until they can get to the end of this season and buy out his contract, as the Braves can't afford to invest any more in a player that just hasn't worked out in a Braves' uniform for one reason or another.

Which brings us to Uggla, who had been one of the premier 2nd baseman in baseball over the past 5 years, even despite his defensive shortcomings. He was such a good hitter in comparison to his peers at the position that his defense didn't really matter that much. His triple slash from 2008-2010 was an outstanding .264/.361/.493, which was good enough for for 12.4 WAR of value. Uggla's raw numbers over his 3 seasons prior to collapse (2008-2010) were better than McLouth's numbers were in his 3 years prior to collapse (2007-2009). Plus, Uggla, played a position that weaker hitters generally play, only increasing the amount of value that he brought to the table, and making him in most estimation a better player than McLouth at the time the Braves acquired him.

But Uggla's numbers through 60 games this year would have made 2010 McLouth point and laugh at him. .172/.240/.312, wOBA of .244. And the awful part about it is the numbers just keep getting worse. Since the Roy Halladay game, Uggla is 5 for 60 with 4 walks and 1 extra base hit, which I have at .083/.140/.100. That is about what a below average hitting pitcher will produce during a season if he gets 64 plate appearances. This has brought Uggla's WAR numbers down to -.8 WAR for the season through 60 games. Think about that. A guy who produces around 4 WAR per season hasn't out hit the average AAA player while playing a position that doesn't have many guys who can hit worth a lick at the big league level (I think that made sense). Even Pete Orr's wOBA this season was .258 (.230/.299/.279) when he was filling in for Chase Utley, and people in the sabermetric community were deriding him (rightly, I might add) for how badly he was playing. And Uggla, who makes 9 million this year and 62 million over the length of his contract, has been worse than Orr in every measure.

A question for another time is why the hell 2 former All Stars with established big league credentials have come to Atlanta and immediately become replacement level players (anyone with an answer to this question please look up Wren, Frank in your phone book and give him a call). But, as bad as McLouth was last year, Dan Uggla has been even worse through the first 2+ months of 2011. I don't think Uggla should be given up on by any means, as a guy with his track record (and, unfortunately, his contract) should be given the chance to iron things out. Unfortunately, he has been getting chances and has only dug an even bigger hole. The Braves aren't making the playoffs this year with Uggla hitting like this, and the team really has no choice but to keep running him out there, as they essentially have no other options at this point. The Braves do have other ways to improve (paging a healthy Jason Heyward), but the most obvious way to improve is standing at 2nd base. Fortunately, things can't get any worse. I think.

Fredi Gonzalez Gets It Wrong Again

Fredi Gonzalez has done it again today, holding Brian McCann out of the starting line up a night after clubbing 2 homers on his way to going 4 for 5 last night versus the Cincinnati Reds. The Braves have a 1 o'clock start tomorrow against San Diego, and McCann did catch 12 innings last night, so he was going to be in need of a break either tonight or tomorrow. I get that catchers can't catch every day, since it is such a physically taxing position. But he should sit tomorrow instead of tonight, since Fredi continues to claim that David Ross is not going to be Jair's "personal" catcher. Tonight's starter Johnny Cueto has given up 2 homers in 6 career at bats to McCann. Not much of a sample size, but you have to like that track record if you are a Braves' fan. Ross is 0 for 1 in his career against Cueto.

Meanwhile, tomorrow's starter for San Diego is Aaron Harang, who David Ross had a fun night against back in April, when he memorably socked 2 homers off of him to lead the Braves to an easy win. Ross is 4 for 9 with 3 homers in his career against Harang. Of course, McCann has pummeled Harang in his career as well, going 8 for 17 against him with 5 extra base hits against him (2 HRs). Fredi wasn't going to go wrong there, but considering both have excellent track records against Harang and only 1 has one against Cueto, I think McCann should be starting tonight. Looking at those numbers though, I kinda wish Ross could play 2nd base tomorrow.

Potential Players Available at #18 in the NBA Draft

Number 18 is the spot that the Hawks would have occupied if not for the Kirk Hinrich trade. If you remember, the Hawks traded for Hinrich and Hilton Armstrong's incompetence by giving the Wizards Maurice Evans, Mike Bibby's carcass, Jordan Crawford, and their 2011 first round pick. Despite the fact that Kirk Hinrich is a decent fit on this basketball team because of his defensive acumen, shooting ability both off the catch and the dribble, and his ability to play both guard positions, this trade hurts a little bit at this particular point. One reason is Jeff Teague's play in the conference semifinals, showing that it is pretty likely that the Hawks had an upgrade at point guard already on the roster, rather than having to trade for one. The play of Jordan Crawford after the trade is another reason for skepticism, as Crawford has shown plenty of ability to score the basketball and create shots, something that the bench next year is really going to need if and when Jamal Crawford is not resigned. Whether or not Jordan Crawford can score efficiently enough to be a really effective player is still unknown at this point, but the fact that he is young (i.e. should improve), cheap and under team control for 3 more years, while also having an obvious ability to create shots, often useful in a second unit. Reason number 3 is that they had to give up the number 18 pick in a draft where there are going to be some useful players available in that spot.

The topic of this post is to list some players that could be available in that spot who I think could really help the Hawks. I see this draft as one without much star power in it, but is really strong in the back end of the 1st round. Basically, I don't think the talent gap is really that big between the top picks and guys who go later on. There may not be many All Stars in the draft, but I do think there are a lot of guys who will contribute and have NBA careers of a decent length. Who would have fit for the Hawks and may have been available in that spot? Let's have a look:

Kenneth Faried, PF, Morehead State- It pains me to have to write his name here, as I really think he would be an excellent addition. Faried is an athletic rebounding machine from Morehead St., one who brings endless energy and effort to the floor. In addition, his combination of athleticism, length, and energy should make him a really solid defender at the next level as well. He may not score much more than garbage buckets, but everything else he brings means that lack of scoring acumen shouldn't hinder him too much. Plus, I think he is an extremely low risk pick without much bust potential. Why? Rebounding is the one skill that most consistently translates to the next level. If you rebound in college, you are probably rebounding in the pros. Faried will be no different. In addition, Faried would be a good fit alongside Zaza Pachulia. They both crash the offensive glass hard and would be extremely difficult for most second units to keep off the glass. In addition, Zaza can play away from the basket a little bit, so the fact that Faried likes to stay right around the basket on offensive would probably not be an issue on the Hawks.

Tobias Harris, SF/PF, Tennessee- Harris is more of a 3-4 tweener, but I think he would fit pretty well. As a 4 he would be a guy who could play well away from the bucket, with enough skill to take advantage of slower guys off the bounce. He can probably play some 3 as well, where he could take advantage of his size on the block, while also having the ability to make a jumper. In addition, he tested out as a much better athlete at the combine than most were giving him credit for. Harris is a smart player who has a lot of skills, and his versatility would be valuable coming off the bench for the Hawks. Also, he won't turn 19 until July, adding some extra upside when predicting his future.

Reggie Jackson, PG, Boston College- Jackson has always been a guy I've really liked, and I think he could contribute to a Hawks roster without a Hinrich trade. Jackson has great size for the point guard spot, an awesome 7'0" wingspan that should allow him to guard a lot of 2s at the next level, good athleticism, and the ability to get to the tin. He also shot 42% from 3 this year, meaning he could spot up off the ball (you know, when Joe Johnson goes iso. That does happen occasionally in the Hawks offense) as well if he was asked to do that some. Jackson's main question is whether he is a true point guard and can run an offense, but I think his athleticism and scoring ability means he would be a decent asset for most NBA clubs. He has a lot of talent.

Other guys that I like but am not convinced are great fits for the Hawks about are Donatas Matiejunas and Nikola Vucevic. I worry about Matiejunas' ability to rebound at the next level despite decent athleticism and a nice ability to score in a variety of ways, and Vucevic's lack of athleticism and foot speed would make him pretty similar to Zaza Pachulia. Having 2 bigs off the bench like that would make the bench extremely susceptible to pick and roll actions IMO.

Unfortunately, this is all an exercise in futility, as the Hawks have no first round pick because of a trade that they may not have had to make. For a team that is up against the salary cap, adding cheap assets through the draft should be a priority. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear to be a priority for the Hawks, trading their last 2 first round draft picks.