It has been covered a decent amount in the blogosphere by those probably with more basketball knowledge than myself, but it's something I would like to write about too, because it's extremely frustrating to watch a team with almost the exact same personnel as last year take such a step back from a one time strength. Last year (a LONG time ago) the Atlanta Hawks, despite playing a dull and boring offense based mostly on isolation, averaged 108.9 points per 100 possessions, ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency in the NBA (numbers from ESPN's John Hollinger). This year, after hiring a guy because of his offensive knowledge, the Hawks rank 20th in the league in the same stat at 103.4 points per 100 possessions. Why, then, would the Hawks have taken a step back with the installation of a more creative, and supposedly better, offensive system?
I think a lot of it centers (no pun intended) around the offensive design that offensive guru Larry Drew has designed for these Atlanta Hawks, which seems to be designed to get as many long 2 point jumpers as possible. Atlanta has attempted the fewest amount of shots per game at the rim than any team in the league this year, while also attempting the 2nd most shots per game of any team from the most inefficient range on the court (16 to 23 feet). Compare it to last year, when the Hawks took 5.5 more shots per game at the rim and 2 fewer shots from 16 to 23 feet. Since the Hawks shoot 20% better from around the rim then they do from long 2 point territory, it really isn't a coincidence why the Hawks were better last year on offense than on defense.
Second, the offensive design calls for much more motion than last year, but with that motion means more passing and more turnovers, which takes away from the Hawks greatest strength from last year. Last year, the Hawks turned the ball over a little over 11% of their possessions (Hoop Data), which was far and away tops in the league last year. Plus, they were fifth in the league in offensive rebounding rate. Combining these 2 factors means that the Hawks probably took more shots per possession than any team in the league last year. Since the Hawks shot the ball decently last year too, it goes hand in hand that the Hawks were extremely efficient. This year however, while the Hawks assist on more baskets than most teams thanks to their motion, they also turn the ball over on 13.5% of their possessions. Also, thanks to their motion, many of their sets are inverted, with the guards often setting screens down low with at least one big out on the perimeter. This is problematic when a shot goes up, as one of your best rebounders (Horford or Smith) isn't in position to rebound. This year's Hawks are the 2nd worst offensive rebounding team in the league, and I would argue the main reason for that is Josh Smith chucking jumpers all season long (that's a discussion for another time), and the fact that horrific rebounder Josh Powell inexplicably stole minutes from a very good offensive rebounder (and a much better player) in Zaza Pachulia.
Having a new offensive system is great, and having much more motion in your offense is much better to watch and execute in the long run. However, you must design an offense to fit your personnel, and as hard as it was to watch some times, Mike Woodson's isolation heavy offense fit the personnel better than Larry Drew's does. Judging by the numbers this year, the players seem to have fallen into a comfort zone where their coach has enabled them to take low efficiency shots without reprocussions, and the Hawks have taken a step back on offense because of it. However, this offense was designed to make them harder to defend in a 7 games series. So, Larry Drew, your report card begins on Saturday. I still want you fired because you don't hold some players to the same accountability standards as others, but better results in the playoffs could (unlikely, but could) make me reconsider.
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