Dan Uggla has been off the charts bad this year. In fact, he has been so bad that he has pretty much made me forget how bad Nate McLouth was last year, when the Braves key acquisition "hit" .190/.297/.322. This got me thinking, and this question is quite painful for Braves' fans, but it needs to be asked. And that question is, has Dan Uggla been worse this year than Nate McLouth was last year? I think these guys can be compared well, as each were excellent offensive players before joining the Braves, before seeing a sudden drop in production for mysterious reasons.
Uggla's disastrous May and awful start to June has made this a race, and it may be one that is Uggla is winn.., er, losing. Let's start with McLouth and recap where he was before his implosion in 2010. In his 3 prior years combined, McLouth had put up an excellent triple slash of .265/.359/.467, while also making an all star appearance in 2008 on the back of a whopping 76 extra base hits (and also being the only good player on the Pirates, but we won't count against him for that). McLouth produced 3.9 WAR in that season despite some disastrous defense, and overall in those 3 years produced 8.9 WAR in basically 2 and a half seasons (he made just 382 plate appearances for the Pirates in 2007). Nate was a very good player, and one who was going to help the Braves add some punch to an outfield that needed some.
Then, 2010 happened, and I don't think anyone can really tell you what is to blame for it. McLouth's triple slash from 2010 is listed above, and that was good enough for a paltry .283 wOBA. I have a feeling that McLouth's collapse in his age 28 season is one of the worst one in recent memory, especially that age 28 is supposed to be one of a player's prime seasons, when he is playing at his peak output. To collapse of that magnitude is something that you don't see terribly often, and one that left me and many other observers out of ideas as to what was going on. To his credit, McLouth never shied away from the criticism and owned up to it, and he has at least rebounded to be a little bit above replacement level this year, which is a lot better than his 2010 season was. Anything more that they get from him will be gravy until they can get to the end of this season and buy out his contract, as the Braves can't afford to invest any more in a player that just hasn't worked out in a Braves' uniform for one reason or another.
Which brings us to Uggla, who had been one of the premier 2nd baseman in baseball over the past 5 years, even despite his defensive shortcomings. He was such a good hitter in comparison to his peers at the position that his defense didn't really matter that much. His triple slash from 2008-2010 was an outstanding .264/.361/.493, which was good enough for for 12.4 WAR of value. Uggla's raw numbers over his 3 seasons prior to collapse (2008-2010) were better than McLouth's numbers were in his 3 years prior to collapse (2007-2009). Plus, Uggla, played a position that weaker hitters generally play, only increasing the amount of value that he brought to the table, and making him in most estimation a better player than McLouth at the time the Braves acquired him.
But Uggla's numbers through 60 games this year would have made 2010 McLouth point and laugh at him. .172/.240/.312, wOBA of .244. And the awful part about it is the numbers just keep getting worse. Since the Roy Halladay game, Uggla is 5 for 60 with 4 walks and 1 extra base hit, which I have at .083/.140/.100. That is about what a below average hitting pitcher will produce during a season if he gets 64 plate appearances. This has brought Uggla's WAR numbers down to -.8 WAR for the season through 60 games. Think about that. A guy who produces around 4 WAR per season hasn't out hit the average AAA player while playing a position that doesn't have many guys who can hit worth a lick at the big league level (I think that made sense). Even Pete Orr's wOBA this season was .258 (.230/.299/.279) when he was filling in for Chase Utley, and people in the sabermetric community were deriding him (rightly, I might add) for how badly he was playing. And Uggla, who makes 9 million this year and 62 million over the length of his contract, has been worse than Orr in every measure.
A question for another time is why the hell 2 former All Stars with established big league credentials have come to Atlanta and immediately become replacement level players (anyone with an answer to this question please look up Wren, Frank in your phone book and give him a call). But, as bad as McLouth was last year, Dan Uggla has been even worse through the first 2+ months of 2011. I don't think Uggla should be given up on by any means, as a guy with his track record (and, unfortunately, his contract) should be given the chance to iron things out. Unfortunately, he has been getting chances and has only dug an even bigger hole. The Braves aren't making the playoffs this year with Uggla hitting like this, and the team really has no choice but to keep running him out there, as they essentially have no other options at this point. The Braves do have other ways to improve (paging a healthy Jason Heyward), but the most obvious way to improve is standing at 2nd base. Fortunately, things can't get any worse. I think.
No comments:
Post a Comment