Why am I trying to tackle this question? I don't know, I guess I'm bored on a weekend and want to challenge myself. The Atlanta Hawks capped an abysmal regular season in which they were outscored by almost a full point per game by their opponents by showing signs of competency by beating the Orlando Magic and taking 2 from the top seeded Chicago Bulls, despite getting housed in their own building in an elimination game. After watching the team in the post season, I can't help but feel a bit more optimistic about these Hawks, and there is really only one reason for that. His name is Jeff Teague. I have asked on a couple of occasions for him to get more playing time, as he really is the only young, cheap asset these Hawks have at this point, and considering the franchise was stuck in the mud this entire season, why not throw him out there and see what you've got? Best case, you find out he can play. Worst case, you find out he can't play, and you work on addressing the point guard spot in the offseason. However, both of those cases are better than not playing him, which means you still don't know for sure if you need to address the point guard spot, probably losing an offseason to address the issue.
However, because of an unfortunate injury to Kirk Hinrich, Larry Drew had no choice but to play Jeff Teague against the reigning NBA MVP, Derrick Rose. And thankfully for the Hawks, he was a revelation. Teague has shown signs in his second year of being a good player, significantly improving his shooting percentage this season while also providing moments of being a real defensive pest, a welcome sign after years of matador defense from Mike Bibby. Teague was nothing short of sensational for the Hawks in the series, making Rose work for everything he got on both ends of the floor. He provided a steady hand (6.8 TO rate in the playoffs, an outstanding number), had a spectacular array of finishes in the lane (both with floaters and at the rim), and provided a consistent threat attacking the rim from the guard spot, something the Hawks haven't had in years. Overall, his playoff PER was 17.46, and that was down from almost 19 after game 5 of the Bulls series (remember, he sprained his wrist early in game 6, rendering him pretty much ineffective from that point). For the first time in years, I'm truly excited about what the Hawks have at point guard next year, and if Teague plays anywhere approaching that level next year, the Hawks will be 2-3 wins better in the regular season just because of it, as point guard was a black hole for 3 quarters of the year this year.
Hawks supporters can also take solace in Al Horford's play this season, which was capped with him being named 3rd team All NBA on Thursday. Al was poor in the Bulls series, getting outplayed for the most part by Joakim Noah, but he had a terrific season this year. Al came to the year with an improved mid-range jumper. Al shot 53% from 16-23 feet this season, tops in the league among qualified players. That is an awesome number, and the development of Teague could get him more open looks from that range next year. Al also provided his usual outstanding defense and solid defensive rebounding. To show just how good he was this year, he increased his usage rate while also improving his field goal percentage, assist rate, and decreasing his turnover rate. Outstanding. Next year, I will be looking to see how he improves his back to the basket game, as it was improved but still mechanical this year. He's still just 24, and he has come back improved every season, so I expect more progress next year. But if he continues to be just this, he's still a stud.
Looking ahead to 2011-2012 (whenever the season starts), the Hawks have an interesting lineup they can turn to starting games of players under contract for next year. This would consist of Teauge at point, Hinrich at SG, Johnson at SF, Smith at PF, and Horford at C. The reason this lineup really interests me is the potential for the defense to be much improved next season. The Hawks weren't terrible defensively last year, but they weren't great either. Most of this had to do with terrible perimeter defense, but this lineup has that covered. Teague made Derrick Rose work hard for what he got on offense in the playoffs, and if he is capable of that, he should be able to competently defend NBA point guards. That's an improvement. Secondly, this allows Hinrich to defend where he is best, which is as a wing defender. Despite being a bit undersized, Hinrich really does a good job of getting into wing players and dictating where he wants them to go. He will be an improvement in that regard for the Hawks to. Joe Johnson can take who ever the weakest wing player is, which he should be able to handle decently enough. Lastly, Horford and Smith won't have as much responsibility, which should allow them to improve their overall defense, not having as many responsibilities in making up for their teammates' defensive incompetencies. This is the lineup I want to see next year, as all of these guys should defend better together as a group. Plus, they are all at least decent passers, which could lead to crisper offense.
Going beyond this, however, is where things get interesting. The Hawks have around 66 million or so committed to 7 players next year. The luxury tax line stood at about 70 million last year, and the uncertainty regarding the CBA really throws things up in the air as to what the Hawks will be able to do next year. In addition to the five mentioned above, the only ones under contract for next year are Marvin Williams and Zaza Pachulia. Let's start with Marvin, who I'm thinking is going to be shopped liberally this offseason. He is never going to live up to his number 2 overall draft pick, and his $8 million salary is a hinderance on a team with no financial flexibility. He hasn't a bad player, but the way he played this post season is really going to hurt his trade value, as he was non existent. How many teams are going to pay him $8 million and give up something of value to do it? It is going to be up to Rick Sund to find one. If they can get a 4th big man or a guy who can score points off the bench, Sund may pull the trigger.
Zaza should be sticking around, as he is a proven back up big man who can bang down low and get some rebounds. He can allow Horford to slide over to the 4 when he is in or come in directly for him, which is good because it means he can play with either of the 2 starting bigs effectively. He is a good fit. In addition to him, I expect that Damien Wilkins will be resigned, which won't be a bad thing. He is a servicable defender who can get a shot at times, and he probably won't cost more than the minimum salary. With limited financial flexibility, a servicable rotation player who costs the minimum is valuable. For the same reason, I think Jason Collins will be resigned as well to be the third center, as he won't cost a lot. Assuming Pape Sy and Magnum Rolle will be back (they wouldn't have signed Rolle 3 days before the season ended if they weren't bringing him back, and they invested a 2nd round pick in Sy, so they will at least give him one more year).
So where do they go from here? It will be imperative for the Hawks to grab a contributor in the 2nd round of the draft, as their limited cap space will suffocate most options. Players that could be available in the 2nd round that could help are guys like Jordan Williams (terrific rebounder), Marshon Brooks (scoring machine from Providence), and Jon Leuer (stretch 4 who really knows how to play). This draft lacks elite talent, but it is deep, so there should be some talent there in the second round. Also, if the Hawks still have access to any salary cap exceptions (a question mark with a new CBA coming), they will have to invest wisely on multiple players most likely, perhaps even rolling the dice on a player who was once productive to find lightning in a bottle (Michael Redd?).
Last thing that needs to be done is something the Hawks have continually ignored despite their financial limitations. And that task is scour the D-League. One look at the Golden State Warriors the last couple of years shows everything you need to know. Over the past few years, the Warriors have found C.J. Watson, Reggie Williams, and Anthony Tolliver in the D-League. The Hawks need to find a guy like this, as they will be league minimum players in their first year. Atlanta needs all of those guys they can get.
It's not going to be easy, but you get the idea of what needs to get done for the Hawks to improve. An upgrade in scouting would be the first order of business, as this franchise hasn't found a diamond in the rough in years (ever?). If you are going to over pay to keep you own free agents, this is something that has to improve if you want to compete and advance in the NBA playoffs. Rick Sund, your work is cut out for you. Be creative, make something happen, because there are players out there. It is up to you to find them.
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