Jair Doing Work

I doubt it will be the title of a Spike Lee joint, but Braves fans have absolutely taken notice of the work Jair Jurrjens has done since returning from the disabled list. Jair struggled last year, posting a 4.64 ERA while also seeing a decrease in ground ball rate and seeing his walk rate increase, albeit only slightly. Judging by his previous 2 years before 2010 and the injury problems he had last year, I was expecting a bit of a rebound from last year's numbers, providing nice value at the back end of the rotation. However, I wasn't expecting anything close to his 1.66 ERA. He has been a rock in the rotation ever since missing his first couple of starts of the year.

But what has changed for Jair? First thing is he has been a bit lucky, although not astronomically so. He has benefited from an 81.7% strand rate through his first 6 starts, a rate that is unsustainable. His career rate is 73.9%, which means there should be some correction to the mean in that regard. A few more base runners will end up scoring in his starts. BABIP against him stands at .263, which isn't too far off his career .282, but some regression should be expected there as well.

However, there is some other signs that point to Jair being a much better pitcher this year. The main thing that I was looking for in Jair this year was an improvement in his ground ball rate after he posted a career low 39.9% GB rate last year. Thankfully for Braves fans, Jair has delivered in a big way in this regard, as he has posted a 49.6% ground ball rate through his first 6 starts. Anything above 50% is very good, so the fact he is right around that threshold is a great sign. Apparently, credit can go to Jonny Venters for showing Jair a new grip for his fastball, causing more sinking action on it rather than running. Great stuff on this front, and an excellent sign for the future.

The next reason, and perhaps the more surprising one, is that Jurrjens' command has been awesome this year. Jair is striking out 5.4 batters per 9 innings, a number that doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. However, his BB rate stands at a microscopic 1.45 per 9 innings, leading his K/BB ratio to be over 3.5 to 1, an outstanding ratio. The fact that Jair has been around the plate the plate so much has also led to an added benefit, in that batters are swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone. Over 33% of his pitches outside the strike zone have been swung at, which is really going to help Jair get outs if he can keep that up. As long as he stays around the plate, more people are going to go up hacking, meaning Jair should be able to get them to chase, just as he has done so far. In the end though, less walks means less base runners, always a good thing in preventing runs.

The sample size is very small to this point, but there have been some very positive developments in Jair Jurrjens' arsenal this season. If he can keep up his awesome K/BB ratio and keep the ball on the ground as much as he has, it is going to be a great season for him all the way around. He has looked fantastic so far this year, and if that continues, the Braves will be that much closer to a 2nd straight playoff appearance.