Although Ben Duronio over at Capitol Avenue Club has already posted a McCann article today, I'm posting one anyway because I thought of writing this article before he published his. And, probably more importantly, its fun to talk about Brian McCann's excellence, especially after a coming off the bench to hit 2 home runs and single handedly win a baseball game for the Braves.
So just how good is Brian McCann? Since becoming a full time big leaguer in 2006 at age 22 years old, McCann has produced exactly 24.1 WAR, or just over 4 WAR per season (including the current season that is only 1/4th old, the average will be closer to 4.5 per season once this season is complete, assuming he stays healthy). His career triple slash stands at .289/.359/.485, good enough for a .362 wOBA from a position that is often an offensive black hole in big league lineups. For some comparison, here are some active catchers' career triple slash lines:
Jorge Posada-.274/.376/.476, wOBA .368
Joe Mauer-.326/.406/.479, wOBA .381 (in case you've been living under a rock, Mauer is REALLY good when healthy)
Ivan Rodriguez- .296/.334/.465, wOBA .344
In my book out of these 3 guys, Rodriguez is a lock hall of famer, Mauer will be if he can stay healthy enough to play games, and Posada will be in the conversation for it. And Mac's number fit right in with those guys, being very comparable to Posada, better than Rodriguez, and a notch below Mauer's.
Now, for more fun, let's take a look a look at some Hall of Famers triple slash numbers (I'm including Mike Piazza in this because he will be one)-
Johnny Bench-.267/.342/.476, wOBA .361
Gary Carter-.262/.335/.439, wOBA .341
Mike Piazza- .308/.377/.545, wOBA .389
Carlton Fisk- .269/.341/.457, wOBA .354
Yogi Berra- .285/.350/482, wOBA .370
Roy Campanella- .276/.350/.500, wOBA .385
Does McCann's .289/.359/.485 and wOBA .362 look out of place there? In my eyes, not really. McCann's counting stats will need to build in order to compare with some of those guys (everyone of them but Campanella had more than 300 home runs, McCann stands currently at 116). There are still plenty of Hall of Fame voters who will give more weight to counting stats (HRs, RBIs, etc) rather than rate stats.
Because we have been comparing his stats to Hall of Famers, lets have some fun and project out the rest of McCann's career based on WAR. He is 27 years old this year, which is just entering his prime. First we have to look at his durability, which has been excellent in his career. His only 2 DL stints have been from an ankle injury suffered in a nasty home plate collision in 2006 and eye problems in 2009 that have been corrected by him hydrating better. If we use the 4.5 WAR average that he has established in his 5 full, completed big league seasons and assume, because he is in his prime and has been very durable, that he will play up to that level until he is 30 years old (the end of his statistical prime). That would be about 3 more WAR this year accumulated this year and 13.5 WAR for the 3 following seasons. Then, because he's getting older and catching can take its toll, lets assume his production drops every year by .5 WAR for the next 3 years, meaning 4, 3.5, and 3 for the 3 following seasons after 30. Then, we can say his body breaks down when he is 34, and his production drops to 2 WAR for the next 2 seasons and around 1 for a season after that before retiring after his age 36 season. Add it all up and that is 32 WAR for the next 9 years to add to his 25 WAR already accumulated. 57 WAR from the catchers spot would put him firmly in the Hall of Fame discussion, as only 9 guys have accumulated over 57 WAR at the catcher's position. A lot of things would need to go right to get to this number, but McCann's track record of durability and consistency will certainly help him if it continues (for the Braves' sake, I just knocked on wood)
Obviously, this doesn't mean that we can definitively say that Brian McCann is going to be a Hall of Famer, but baseball fans everywhere need to appreciate just how good this guy is. Of course, it will suit me just fine if he continues to stay healthy and to toil in relative (for a 5, soon to be 6 time All Star) obscurity down in Atlanta, as us Atlantans appreciate what we have, even if most other fans don't. He is a huge advantage for the Braves that they can pencil his name into the lineup every day, knowing they have a legitimate All Star to put in possibly the hardest position in the game to fill with a productive player. And he is Georgia born and raised. What more could you want from a franchise cornerstone?
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