Our first NL East preview provides a look at the Washington Nationals. With a 69-93 record last year, the Nationals showed some improvement after 2 straight sub 60 win teams. However, that 10 win improvement doesn't bring much excitement because, well, improving by 10 games and still finishing 28 games out of first still means there is a LONG way to go. However, there are a few reasons to be excited for the future. Ryan Zimmerman is entrenched at 3rd, and he is one of the very best players in the league. Back to back #1s Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg bring hope of young studs to join the Z-Pack (and Strasburg would be there if not for injury of course, but I imagine he will be back strong next year). In addition, free agent signing Jayson Werth should be a very good player for the Nationals, despite them probably overpaying for his services. Will it be enough to get out of the cellar for the first time in 4 years?
Infield: A Cornerstone at the Hot Corner
First, we start with the happy part of this preview for Nats fans, which is the consoling fact that Ryan Zimmerman is really, really good. Zimmerman has provided triple slash lines of .292/.364/.525 in '09 and .307/.388/.510 in '10 while also providing fantastic defense at 3rd base. He's 26, and has provided 13.8 WAR over the 2 previous years. Yep, that'll work.
Unfortunately, his infield companions don't inspire tons of confidence. Young double play duo Ian Desmond and (likely starter at 2nd) Danny Espinosa inspire a bit of hope, but not much. Desmond has some talent at the dish despite lacking plate discipline, but he has to catch the ball better if he is going to be a solid starter in the majors. 34 (!) errors just won't cut it. If he catches it while providing a bit more plate discipline, he could provide decent value. Espinosa showed flashes in his brief September cameo last year, and he will help offset some of Desmond's shoddy glove work with some good leather of his own. Espinosa has hit at every level of the minor leagues and has plus power for a second baseman, but plate discipline could be his unraveling too, as he combines a low walk rate with a high strikeout rate, which obviously doesn't go very well together.
Adam LaRoche is the epitome of average at 1st base (1.7-2.6 WAR in each of the last 5 years), and 64 year old Pudge Rodriguez rounds out the infield. Pudge never took walks and has no power anymore, but thankfully, he is a catcher, which makes him the equal of many in the major league catching fraternity. Expect Wilson Ramos to steal at bats as the season goes on. Ramos was the key return in the Matt Capps trade, and while the jury is still out on him, he hit .285 in his minor league career and is 23 years old. Some upside is there, although how much is not really known at this point.
Outfield: Werth Provides More Punch
The outfield will be headlined by new right fielder Jayson Werth, who signed a lucrative 7 year deal that will pay him until he is 38. Whether he is providing value at the end of that contract is probably a long shot, but for now, he will provide a boost to the Nats outfield, providing some much needed plate discipline, power, and plus defense in right. However, I don't believe he will be providing a long beard anymore with his new team. Nevertheless, he will be sorely missed in Philadelphia.
The rest of the outfield is, well unsettled. Four outfielders are competing for 2 spots. Nyjer Morgan provided almost nothing last year (except a literal fighting spirit late in the year), Roger Bernadina didn't either, and new acquisition Rick Ankiel provides plenty of strikeouts. Oh, they spent 2.75 million on Ankiel, which would make some sense if you didn't have Bernadina making the league minimum while providing slightly more plate discipline and less power. Basically, they are the same guy, so why spend money on Ankiel? Anyway, Morgan had an awesome year in 2009, and a bounce back in BABIP should bring his average back to around .280, which if he combines it with good defense in center will make manager Jim Riggelman very happy.
The other contender for playing time is Mike Morse, and he is an intriguing player. He is a big man who won't provide much defensive value, but he can hit. He hit .289/.352/.519 last year in 293 plate appearances. If he gets anywhere close to that line in more at bats this year, he will be one of the more underrated players in the National League. Unfortunately for Nats fans, Rick Ankiel will probably platoon with Morse to start the year and be given the chance to fail. Once that happens, Morse should take the majority of at bats.
Starting Pitching: "Oh Stephen Where Art Thou?"
They are going to miss Strasburg. Of course, anyone would. A legit argument could be made after his 12 appearances last year that he would be the best pitcher in the league this year of he was healthy. His FIP (fielding indepedent pitching on an ERA scale) was 2.08, which is simply absurd (Halladay was a 3.01 last year, which is fantastic as well, but pales in comparaison). Unfortunately, he will have to wait til next year, which is very, very unfortunate for Nats fans. Livan Hernandez, Jason Marquis, and John Lannan anchor the rotation, which is all you need to know really. They will provide innings and consistent mediocre pitching if nothing else. Jordan Zimmerman does have some talent, and the former high draft pick should be much healthier after having Tommy John surgery in 2009. Before hurting his arm, he struck out a batter an inning while providing a K/BB ratio of better than 3 to 1. He should develop into a nice starter to plug in behind Strasburg for the future. The recently acquired Tom Gorzelanny will probably land the 5th starter's role. He can provide some strikeouts, but count on inconsistency as well.
Bullpen: Looks Better From the Back
Thankfully, the Nationals can count on their bullpen to protect any leads that they are provided this year. There are some capable arms in the bullpen, led by former 1st round pick Drew Storen. He should improve on an impressive rookie year, and he is the closer of now and in the future. The primary set up men will be Sean Burnett and Tyler Clippard. Burnett was fabulous last year, providing almost a strikeout an inning, 3 to 1 K/BB ratio, and a 55% ground ball rate. That's dealing. Clippard was lights out as well, as Riggelman was fortunate that his arm never fell off last year. He struck out 11 per 9 innings with a funky right handed delivery and a mid 90s fastball. Doug Slaten is a pretty good LOOGY, Todd Coffey will be decent in a middle relief role thanks to a high strikeout rate, and Craig Stammen will probably be the long man in the pen. He'd better pitch well, because he could be called on a decent amount following an inevitable implosion from the Nats' many hittable starters.
Outlook: Stuck in Neutral
Help is on the way with Strasburg back next year and Bryce Harper on the way as fast as he can, but don't expect more than about 70 wins from this group this year. Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth will be a load on offense, but they have quite a few people who could struggle to get on base, providing less run producing opportunities for them. Plus, runs will be plentiful against the Nats' starters, although the bullpen will help to offset that somewhat. In the end though, a competitive division won't do the Nationals any favors, and it will be another losing season in D.C.
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