After enjoying another weekend of college hoops and with tournament time approaching, I thought a few teams really stepped up and made a statement to the nation. The obvious first one is North Carolina, who despite failing at storming the court, really put on a clinic against a good Duke team. Kendall Marshall has really made a difference for them, as he has excellent instincts with the basketball in his hands. The second one I thought was Notre Dame. Winning away from the Joyce Center has been a difficult task for them traditionally, but getting another big win away from home without one of their leaders should give them a boost of confidence heading into the tournament. Backup Eric Atkins played some very good minutes off the bench, and he will be needed to defend quicker point guards if the Irish will do some damage in March. However, the team I feel flew most under the radar this weekend was the Florida Gators. An extremely efficient performance against a good Vanderbilt team piqued my interest, making me wonder whether this team could be good enough to reach the Final Four.
Ever since a solid recruiting class in 2004 turned into the best recruiting class of the current millenium, Billy Donovan has struggled down in Gainesville, missing out on the tournament 2 years in a row before squeaking into the Dance last year (only to be Jimmered out of the dance by the certain sweet-shooting guard based in Provo). There were high expectations this year coming in, and after struggling out of the gate and suffering a few high profile letdowns against weaker opposition, the Gators have really righted the ship, storming to a 13-3 conference record playing in the solid if unspectacular SEC East. Florida has now played the 7th toughest schedule in college basketball while racking up 10 RPI top 50 wins, which is tied for the most in the nation alongside Notre Dame. Clearly, Florida has proven they can beat some very good teams.
However, Florida had gone about winning many of their games in a down to the wire fashion, which can be a dangerous recipe once entering a single elimination tournament. They went 3-0 in overtime games, while also winning two other home games on the very last possession. One wrong bounce here or one missed call there can turn the tables in any game like that later on. Teams that win games can build up records that mask the actual strength of the team. The Gators served notice this week that it might be time to reconsider them, with a 27 point mauling of a solid Alabama team, while also (much to the dismay of the author) putting together an excellent display in dispatching a talented Vanderbilt team at Memorial Gym.
When evaluating a team for Final Four worthiness, I feel like that team has to have something that makes them stand out from the others. Whether that be having a great player, a great defense, etc, most teams that make the Final Four will have something that sets them apart from the others. Fortunately for Billy Donovan, the biggest strength that Florida has is their offensive rebounding, as they are 7th in the country in offensive rebound rate, rebounding 38.7% of their misses. Why is this fortunate you ask? Well, 9 out of the last 12 final four teams have ranked in the top 21 in the country in offensive rebounding rate. Alex Tyus, Vernon Macklin, and Chandler Parson are a tall, athletic frontline, and all have the ability to get rebounds out of their own areas, meaning that opponents have to hold their blockouts longer than usual. This also leads to less opposition transition opportunities, as opponents have to send 5 guys to the glass on every possession. Also, defense is generally tighter in the tournament along with a slower tempo, so the ability to create second shots is vital.
The second strength that Florida has is that they don't foul on defense. The Gators rank 2nd in the country in FT attempt per Field Goal attempt, meaning two things. First, Florida doesn't give away free points at the stripe, making their opponents earn everything they get in the run of play. Second, and perhaps more importantly, it keeps their best players on the floor. Florida shouldn't have to worry about losing anybody to foul trouble in an important NCAA tournament game.
Florida's third main strength lies in its balance, as every starter is a threat on offense capable of going for 20 or more on a given night. Plus, this allows them to attack defensive weaknesses better than most, as you can't hide anyone against them. Last night, Florida knew its advantage was against Vanderbilt's guards, and Erving Walker continually beat the 'Dores on the pick and roll, while also getting an assist from his backcourt mate Kenny Boynton, who got free from John Jenkins multiple times in the 2nd half for open jumpers, most of which he buried.
Aside from these strengths, there are still some red flags when looking at this team, two in particular that standout. The first is shooting, as Florida is only average shooting the 3 (34.7% as a team) and only have 1 guy who has shot more than 30 of them shooting over 37% (Parsons at 39.3%) Additionally, the one guy who can't help himself from shooting (we can call this the Josh Smith syndrome) is Kenny Boynton, who has launched a team leading 194 treys this year. A 3 game hot streak of 13-27 has bumped his percentage from 29.9% to 32.4%, meaning that the Gators should expect less than a point per shot from a Boynton three point attempt. Can't waste possessions in March, and one cold Boynton shooting night could (literally) shoot down Florida's tournament hopes.
Second, the balance we talked about earlier could hurt the Gators as well, as I still don't think they are entirely sure who the go to guy is on. Parsons thrives in the flow of the offense, but he isn't really a shot creator when things break down. Boynton can get a shot, but do you want that if he's in the midst of a 3-16 performance. Walker is a good little player, but unfortunately the emphasis needs to be placed on little. The 5-7 Walker can't be trusted to get a good shot in crunch time because he's too short.
Almost every Final Four team in recent memory had a clear cut go-to guy in crunch time. Last year, Duke had Nolan Smith, WVU had DaSean Butler, Butler had Gordon Hayward, and MSU had Kalin Lucas. The year before that, it was Lucas, Tyler Hansbrough, AJ Price, and Scottie Reynolds. 2008 (this final four had 10 future first round picks playing in it by the way, with 7 others who have already spent significant time in the league. my god) featured Hansbrough, Derrick Rose, Mario Chalmers, and Kevin Love (or maybe Darren Collison, but both being first round picks, each is a good option). Florida doesn't have that guy, and I am still of the opinion that it will be their downfall before reaching the Final Four.
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