Now it's time for what we have all been waiting for, which is Atlanta Braves baseball. The weather has been unseasonably warm in the ATL for the last few weeks, meaning that waiting for baseball season has seemed to be longer than usual. However, our favorite rites of passages to spring have come and gone (daylight savings time, Vanderbilt losing in the 1st round, Hawks quitting when times get tough, etc.), meaning baseball season is now only 8 days away. I will preview the Braves in 4 parts, starting with the infield today.
Discussion of the Braves infield will start in the same place it has started for the last 15 years (well minus 2 years when he played in the outfield), and that is at the hot corner. Chipper Jones returns from an August ACL tear to begin his 17th season as a regular in the Braves lineup. Over the last 2 years, Chipper finally has shown some signs of decline, posting wOBAs of .354 and .358 respectively. Yes, those are his numbers when he is clearly in decline. Chipper, I'm going to miss you when you retire. Most of Chipper's value these days comes from a batting eye so good that I'm convinced he could be a servicable big league hitter well into his 40s, posting walk rates over 16% each of the last 3 years. His career OBP is .405, which should be a ticket into the Hall of Fame for Chipper when combined with a .306 batting average, 400 homers, and a .536 slugging percentage. Braves fans will hope for 130 games from Chipper this year, and if he gives it to them, the lineup will be that much better for it, even at age 39.
Moving over to shortstop, the Braves picked up Alex Gonzalez' 2.5 million option for 2011 and rightfully so. Despite being a polar opposite at the plate from Chipper by swinging as hard as he can at everything close to the plate, the Braves were absolutely correct in picking up Gonzalez' option, considering there was no in house replacement, and the fact that 2.5 million is quite a bargain for a player of his quality. In between swinging through sliders off the plate (then yelling at himself afterwards), Gonzalez is a fantastic defender at shortstop, having good range, great hands, and a plus throwing arm. He is well above average defensively on a team in dire need of above average defenders. At the plate, he has the patience of someone who is stuck in traffic, but he does have plus power for the shortstop position. Despite posting a .294 OBP last year, Gonzalez still found a way to be valuable by clubbing 23 homers, good for a .447 slugging percentage. His HR per fly ball ratio was very high last year, but if he can provide good defense and a .420 slugging percentage or so (both things being extremely reasonable for him), that 2.5 million will be money well spent on a player providing 2-3 WAR of value. He will be terribly frustrating to watch while flailing at anything close to the plate, but keeping things in perspective makes you realize he adds plenty to the team.
Gonzalez' double play partner will be Atlanta's key offseason acquistion, as Dan Uggla (and his forearms) has settled in Atlanta. Dealt to the Braves for Omar Infante and Mike Dunn, Uggla will provide the Braves lineup with some much needed power from the right side of the plate. Unfortunately, that is the only part of the game Uggla will contribute in, as he possesses hands of stone as well as the range of stone. However, Uggla has hit 30+ homers in each of the last 4 years, and is a good bet to do it again this year, considering how well he's hit at Turner Field over the years(we should take into consideration that taking him off of the Marlins might save the Braves 1-2 wins, considering how well he hit Braves pitching over the years. This is just my theory, but Uggla killed the Braves when he was down there), as well as leaving a tough pitchers park in Florida for the Ted, which is more favorable to right handed power hitters. Uggla had his best season last year, batting .287/.369/.508 for the season. He probably won't hit .287 again in his career considering how much he strikes out, but Uggla is a patient hitter with plenty of power. He adds a lot to the lineup, and the Braves should score more runs this year than last year mainly because of his presence. Despite his defensive deficiencies, his offense more than makes up for it.
Young Freddie Freeman will man first this year, and his contributions this year will be a wild card in the Braves' season. Only 21, Freddie has hit at every level he's played and appears to be ready for the big leagues. Last year, Freeman hit .319/.378/.518, good enough for the International League Rookie of the Year Award. Freeman's patience at the plate is average, but he does have decent contact rates for a first baseman to make up for that a bit, and the fact that he hit so well at AAA at the age of 20 means he should be a productive hitter in time. However, its hard to count on a 21 year old who is not named Jason Heyward, despite an impressive track record. The leap to the bigs is obviously a hard one, so it will be interesting to see if he gets off to a good start this year. He should bring a bit more pop and a higher batting average in years to come, but this year, it is hard to expect much more than .270 and 15 homers this year. That combined with good defense at first base would be an excellent rookie year for Freeman. Considering his track record, he should hit well in the majors, when is more of the question for him.
And finally, the least regarded 5 time All Star in all of baseball will do the catching. Brian McCann has spent 5.5 years in the bigs and has racked up 23.9 wins above replacement for his trouble. Excellent production from a position that many clubs struggle to get any offensive production out of. McCann posted a career high BB rate (13.1%) last year, while also posting a career high in K rate to cancel that out. It will be interesting to watch that to see if either rate stays at those levels. A drop in K rate with the walk rate holding steady could mean bigger things for Mac, who it should be noted improved his percentage throwing out baserunners to a career high 30% in 2010. Despite that fluctuation in BB and K rate, Mac is as steady as they come behind the dish, extremely durable and reliable ever since he was called up at the ripe old age of 21 in 2005. The Braves are in good hands here, and will be for the foreseeable future. Fangraphs projects 4.7 WAR this year, and I think that is about right.
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