Ah, the New York Mets. After a certain high profile Ponzi scheme fiasco, the Mets are in disarray, as they are aging, overpaid, and lacking in young talent. Combine this overpaid bunch with the fact that their ownership doesn't have any money (as they can no longer get it by scamming others out of it), and it becomes painfully obvious that this team isn't getting better anytime soon. The Mets made the first step for improvement by firing incompetent general manager Omar Minaya, which means that sabermetric aficionados like can now focus all of their ridicule for GMs on Dayton Moore (in another note, it also means that Mets fans can now appreciate viewing HBO's The Wire, as they won't cringe nearly as much when they hear the kids say "Omar's Coming"). But I digress, on to the preview.
Infield: Questions in the Middle
Any discussion of the Mets' infield should start with David Wright, and this preview is no different. Wright's power was on the rebound after mysteriously disappearing in 2009, posting a .503 slugging percentage, which falls much closer to his career norms sans 2009. His walk rate did drop to 10.3%, but he was still a very productive player in 2010. After spending 3 years with a walk rate about 12%, I imagine that will be on the rebound as well. Of greater concern is that he has been a disaster on the defensive end the last 2 years according to UZR, and with the shaky state of the New York pitching staff, it would really help if he got to more infield grounders.
On the other corner will be Ike Davis, who really provided some nice value at first base last year as a rookie, producing 3.4 WAR on his rookie scale contract. Of particular note was some excellent defense, which he combined with a good eye at the plate to post a .351 OBP, which should improve a bit with more experience. Jose Reyes will man shortstop, and his main tasks will be staying healthy and actually laying off a pitch or two if he is healthy. He has decent power for a speed guy and is an unbelievable pest when he gets on base. However, he wouldn't take a pitch last year, posting a .321 OBP last year after posting OBPs above .350 4 years in a row before last year. Also, despite possessing good speed and range in the field, he was below average in the field each of the last 2 years. He was destined for stardom a couple of years ago, but is now merely just a good solid player. Josh Thole will do the catching, and his batting eye alone will help the Mets lineup by getting on base at the bottom of the order.
Unfortunately for the Mets, four players play on the infield beyond the pitcher. Omar Minaya's finest hour was when he awarded Luis Castillo a four year, $25 million contract in 2007 when he was 32 years old. He has rewarded the Mets faith in him by flushing money down the toilet for 3 years now, producing 2.8 WAR over 3 years. He has can get on base a little bit, which is his only value, but when you combine that skill with a ghastly .267 slugging percentage, you are clearly not the answer. Rumor has it that Terry Collins might turn to someone else, as Rotoworld reported the other day that Terry Collins has been "disenchanted" with Castillo, Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus, and Justin Turner. So Luis Hernandez might win this job for not totally sucking. Well done.
Outfield: Massacred by Wounded Knee
Carlos Beltran was once a fantastic player. Unfortunately, his age and balky knees have finally caught up to him, robbing him of most of his value for the fact the simply can't stay on the field anymore. He has played in only 145 games the past 2 years, and the Mets are hoping a move to right field will help his knees a bit. I still think he will be as injury prone as ever, but the Mets defense will probably improve a bit because of it. Once a fantastic defensive centerfielder, Beltran just doesn't move like he once did, but I expect even with balky knees that he will be a plus defender in right.
Now, the one biggest positive that came out of the Mets season last year was the emergence of 2011 center fielder Angel Pagan. Pagan combined a .341 wOBA at the plate with awesome defensive contributions at all 3 outfield positions last year. He is blessed with great instincts doubled with terrific speed, meaning he can cover acres of space in the outfield. He provided almost 5 WAR last year, helping to offset Beltran's injury problems and Jeff Francouer's presence for the 1st 5 months of the year. He will make 3.5 million this year, which is a huge win for the Mets.
Finally the other outfield corner will be manned by the overpaid Jason Bay, who represents the opposite end of the salary spectrum, providing little value for a lot of money. Paid 15 million last year, Bay slugged a paltry .402 for a supposed power hitter. Although he still gets on base at a good clip, Bay will have to recover some of that lost power, which won't be an easy task at the cavernous Citi Field. But don't worry Mets fans, he's 32 years old and is paid 16 million each of the next 3 years (Omar's coming Mets fans! Just kidding).
Starting Pitching: Rotation By Committee
Here's where things get difficult, when your ace is out half the season with a shoulder problem (you know, the absolute worst place for a pitcher to get injured). But on the brightside, when you have Chris Young, Chris Capuano, Dillon Gee, and Pat Misch to fill the void...
Yeah you see where this is going, as none of those guys will inspire much confidence. Mike Pelfrey will lead the way until Santana's back, and he's a workhorse who gets groundballs by the bushel. He isn't overly dominant however, as he relies on getting outs by contact, striking out just over 5 per 9 innings last year. If his sinker isn't sinking, he's usually in trouble. Jon Niese is a decent pitcher as well, as he supplements similar ground ball tendencies with a better strikeout rate. He should provide some good cheap production in the Mets' rotation the next few years.
Now to the unknowns. R.A. Dickey will slide into the number 3 spot in the rotation, and I really don't know what to think about that. At age 35, he seemed to turn a corner last year, throwing more strikes than ever and posting a ridiculous 55% groundball rate last year. However, he throws a knuckleball, which is generally a tough pitch to locate, and he benefited from a fortuitous .276 BABIP, meaning I am expecting some regression from last year. His BABIP will probably be up a bit, he will probably walk a few more than last year, and with a little regression in command, I also see the ground ball rate dropping a bit. He can still be a decent pitcher, I just wouldn't expect the same value he gave last year.
Chris Capuano was a decent pitcher in time, but he spent almost 3 years out of the show due to injury and ineffectiveness. He might have something left in the tank, but you don't feel comfortable saying it. Same thing goes for Chris Young, who has battled shoulder problems for 3 years. He walks a ton of guys, but he leverages that out when he is healthy by the fact he hides the ball well in his delivery, meaning decent contact is hard to come by. However, he hasn't been healthy in 3 years, and I imagine health will be an issue again. Pat Misch is a 30 year old journeyman who throws strikes and not much else, while Dillon Gee didn't inspire much confidence with his cameo last year. Top prospect Jennry Mejia could make an impact eventually, even after Jerry Manuel and Omar Minaya tried to stunt his growth by making him a little used reliever for the first 2 months of last year. Good times.
Bullpen: Hide the Fathers
Yep, K-Rod is back, and his adventures at the end of games are coming with him. Mets fans, lets all pray together that he doesn't finish (not save) 55 games this year. If he does, his 17.5 million (!) option will vest next year. Sweet dreams Mets fans. In all seriousness, he isn't a bad pitcher, but all of those resources can be put to much better use than on your closer. Especially when Bobby Parnell is your set up guy. Parnell struck out almost a batter an inning last year while touching 100 MPH on the radar gun multiple times. In addition to that, he doesn't walk people and posted an excellent 56.2% ground ball rate. Add it all up, and he overcame an unlucky .374 BABIP to post a 2.83 ERA out of the pen. And he is on his rookie contract. Omar, this is why you never spend ridiculous sums of money on a free agent closer, because young guys like this aren't that hard to find on the cheap.
After Parnell, it gets ugly. See if any of these names jump out: D.J. Carrasco, Taylor Buchholz, Taylor Tankersley, Manny Acosta, and Jason Isringhausen (I didn't know he was still alive either). Carrasco was decent for a couple of different teams last year, he should do fine. Buchholz and Tankersley were both former top prospects who are now looking to get their careers going again after injury setbacks. They had talent once, so the Mets are hoping to get lightning in a bottle. Braves fans like myself are all to familiar with Acosta's shenanigans, and Isringhausen hasn't been effective since 2007 either (I'm sensing a theme).
Outlook: A Lost Cause
The Mets have talent. The problem is staying healthy, and their track record makes it hard to be optimistic. Combining it with ownership problems and their ace on the shelf for at least half the year, and its hard imagining the Mets winning more than 75 games this year. There isn't much talent on the farm other than Mejia, so they won't be able to cover up shoddy pitching all along the pitching staff unless their lineup is completely healthy. Unfortunately for them, that won't happen, and this is going to be another lost year for the Mets.
No comments:
Post a Comment