Baseball fans know about the Phillies offseason. Acquiring a pitcher as good as Cliff Lee qualifies as newsworthy, especially when they snuck in and got him when nobody was expecting it. Personally, I thought he was a lock for the Yankees, but the Phillies ended up getting their man. After sleepwalking through the first half of the season, the Phillies got a jolt of energy after their acquisition of Roy Oswalt at midseason, and it propelled them all the way to the National League East crown. However, they fell short of their goal, going down to the Giants in 6 games in the NLCS. Will the acquisition of Lee lead them to another NL East crown and a run at the World Series? Lets take a look.
Infield: Ah, to be Young...
The biggest reason for the Phillies' rise to beasts of the east was their infield, and they still remain the backbone of their offense. However, age could be taking a toll, especially with Chase Utley looking for ways to avoid surgery on his ailing right knee. If he has to miss any significant time, that is an enormous loss. When healthy, he is hands down the best 2nd baseman in the bigs, combining plate discipline, power, and unbelievable range at 2nd to produce 5.2 WAR last year in just 115 games, after racking up 23.5 WAR in the 3 previous seasons. However, injuries have moved a cloud of doubt over his season, making it difficult to project how good he will be this season.
Utley's double play partner also may be beginning to show his age. 32 year old Jimmy Rollins, missed about half the season last year due to injury, and his performance last year when he was on the field was not up to his usual lofty standards hitting .243/.320/.374 last year. However, his BABIP has been low each of the last two years, so a bounce back in that category could lift his hitting somewhat. He should have enough left in the tank to be a productive player this year as long as he is healthy. Unfortunately for Phillies' fans, that is a big if. To Rollins' right will be Placido Polanco, who is an extraordinary contact hitter who also provides plenty of value on defense. However, he's 35 and injury prone as well, topping 145 games just once since 2003. Both he and Rollins are superlative defenders as well, making an awesome Phillies starting staff even better.
The next one to cover on the infield is Ryan Howard, who is the largest and most overrated player on this infield. This isn't to say he isn't a quality player (he is), but paying him 25 million a season like the Phillies are just isn't worth it. He is well below average defensively, and has posted huge RBI numbers thanks to hitting behind the likes of Rollins and Utley for years and years, which has inflated his reputation. He has great power, but even that dropped off significantly, hitting .276/.353/.505 last year. Good numbers, but do you want to pay $25 million for that combined with below average defense? Me neither. Over the last 3 seasons, he has produced 9.9 WAR, solid numbers, but also proving he is well overpaid. Carlos Ruiz will do the catching, and he was spectacular last year in a lineup that is always in need of right handed balance. Ruiz posted a .400 OBP last year, great numbers that will help the Phils turn the lineup over to the dangerous guys at the top. Expect a regression from that number this year due to a probable drop in BABIP (.335 last year), but he is an underrated member of the lineup.
Overall, this is an outstanding group, but any injuries from this aging crew means the likes of Wilson Valdez or Ross Gload enters the lineup, a huge dropoff (especially for Utley). The recently cut Luis Castillo has joined the club as well. I don't think highly of Castillo (see Mets preview), but for a minor league contract, he is worth the gamble.
Outfield: A Notewerthy Defection
Lets cut to the chase, losing Jayson Werth was a huge blow to the Phillies lineup. His right handed bat provided balance to a lineup heavy on left handers, and a legitimate argument could be made that he was the Phillies best hitter last year (the jury is still out on whether his facial hair will be missed, but that's neither here nor there).
The most vital cog in the Phillies' outfield this year will be Hawaii native Shane Victorino. Victorino has been a pretty consistent hitter for the Phillies the last 4 years, sporting a wOBA between .352 and .355 from 2007-09, and would have been there last year if not for a .273 BABIP. Shane has wheels, puts the ball in play, and can turn on a fastball and deposit it into the seats if you aren't careful. Plus, he is an above average defender in center, which is a good thing considering who patrols (er, stands in) left field.
Raul Ibanez will once again man left, and at age 38, could continue a decline that appears to have started last year. In 2009, Ibanez came out like a man possessed, clubbing 17 homers in the 1st 2 months before finishing with 34. His performance dropped off considerably last year, an entirely predictable outcome considering 21% of fly balls left the yard in 2009, which is an unsustainable rate for even the best of power hitters. Ibanez hit .275/.349/.444, which are decent numbers, but when combined with shoddy defense in left, it doesn't look nearly as attractive. Ibanez makes $12 million and is in the last year of his contract, so expect this to be his last year in Philadelphia, considering the decline his career appears to be in.
With Dominic Brown's preseason injury, Ben Francisco will hold down right field to start the season. He is a right handed hitter who can provide a bit of balance to the lineup. With a career .263/.329/.446 triple slash and a track record as a below average defender, he won't make Phillies fans forget about the Jayson Werth. Also, Brown's injury really limits Philly's already thin bench, meaning any more injuries to any of the lineup regulars (who are all over 30 except Francisco, who is 29) could put a serious dent into what should be a pretty good offense. Francisco's play will be interesting to watch while trying to replace a key cog.
Starting Pitching: No, It's Not a Misprint
The offseason coup of Cliff Lee brings Philly's already dominant staff to another level, adding a 4th all star to the rotation. I'll cover Roy Halladay here, and, well, he's a man. Dominant, filthy, overpowering, it all describes him. Nothing else really needs to be said other than he is a stud.
Sliding into the number 2 hole is Lee who has been one of the best in MLB ever since an adjustment to his mechanics before 2008. He repeats his delivery every time and his command is unbelievable, posting a K/BB ratio of 10.28 to 1 last year. I wonder if a pitching machine could produce a ratio that good. His impeccable command limits baserunners and helps keep the ball in the yard, which will be useful considering the bandbox he plays in. Anyway, his signing offsets the loss of Werth and then some.
Cole Hamels will probably man the 3 spot in the rotation, and he is coming off his best season yet. He struck out over a batter an inning for the 1st time in 4 years, and a new cutter helped him produce the highest ground ball rate of his career. He did benefit from an 82.7% strand rate which is likely to regress some (his career rate is 76.6% which is still superb), but an ERA in the 3.3s is probably the most likely scenario for Hamels this year, which is excellent work. All Star number 4 is Roy Oswalt, who enjoyed a nice bounce back season last year, posting a 2.76 ERA. However, a .253 BABIP means that the ERA will probably be moving upwards a bit this year, but Oswalt will still be plenty productive. Anyone who strikes out over 8 per 9 innings with a K/BB ratio of around 3.5 to 1 should be a productive pitcher, and I expect more production from Oswalt this year, despite being 33 years old.
Joe Blanton will round out the rotation for the Phillies, and despite not being a world beater, he should provide plenty of value as the 5th starter in the rotation. Since coming to Philly, Blanton has rediscovered some value by actually striking people out, something he never did with the Oakland Athletics. His improved K rate has limited some of the baserunners that used to plague him, and he has been productive since putting on a Phillies uniform. I think close to 200 innings and a 4.4 ERA are reasonable expectations, numbers most teams would kill for from their fifth starter.
Bullpen: Taking the Day Off
Yep, it's going to be good to be a Phillies' reliever this year. With 4 studs at the top and an innings eater in the number 5 hole, there won't be much need for relief pitchers in an ideal world for the Phillies. However, they do have a couple of decent options in case a lead needs to be held.
Discussion of the Phillies' bullpen starts with Brad Lidge, and he can be an adventure. Ever since an infamous lash of Albert Pujols' bat in 2005 (one of the single most awesome random baseball moments I have ever watched live), Lidge has been a mystery. Blessed with a good fastball and a nasty slider, Lidge is as tough as they come when his command is good. However, he's walked about 5 batters per 9 innings each of the last 2 years, and his performance has suffered a bit because of it. Last year was something of a bounce back year, but with his command troubles, I don't see him ever being the guy he was 2008 (the only really great year he's had statistically since big, bad Albert came calling).
Setting up Lidge will be Ryan Madson, who will be starting his 27th year as the Phillies primary set up man. Ok, its not really that long, but most relievers don't spend as much time in one role with one team as he has. Originally groomed to be a starter when he first came up to the bigs, Madson has settled into a prominent role in the pen, having his best season last year. He set career highs in both K rate and BB rate (as in lowest rate), and combines a plus fastball with a devastating changeup, which is consistently graded out as one of the most effective pitches in all of baseball. He is a force.
After those two is where things get interesting. Jose Contreras had a nice year last year, but he is 39 years old and had posted 3 very average seasons before last year. 39 year olds generally don't put up 2 good seasons in a row after 3 average ones. J.C. Romero, can get lefties out, but he can also walk plenty of them too. Danys Baez can't strike anyone out anymore, and his command is inconsistent as well. Antonio Bastardo has a live arm, but limited experience. If they decide to go with 12 pitchers, Scott Mathieson or Kyle Kendrick could get the nod. Mathieson has a live arm who struggles with command, and Kendrick is a sinker/slider guy who would be a good candidate for a long man. He's extremely hittable against everyone but the Braves, however, so there could be times that a rough outing from a starter will turn into a long night for Phillies' fans. However, I wouldn't expect many rough outings from the starters.
Outlook: You Win Games When the Other Team Can't Score
It's pretty obvious that your chances increase when you prevent runs from scoring, and when you have starting pitching like this, you should be in most every ball game. The Phillies have enough firepower on offense to score enough runs, and normal production form their starting pitching should get this team close to 100 wins and another division crown. There are enough questions on offense regarding health to say they will get to 100, but I think a 98-64 record looks about right with the pitching. That will be enough to finish in 1st in the East for the 5th straight year.
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