Last year's outfield was an unmitigated disaster with the notable exception of a splendid 20 year old right fielder. That should change this year, as the fantastic second baseman from last year should now be the very solid left fielder, while the 29 year old center fielder should bounce back, as former All Star don't just forget how to hit. Nate McLouth had a bad year, but he can't play that bad again, and his spring training statistics show promise for a much better season.
We will start in left field, where Martin Prado will learn a new position on the fly. After spending a couple of years on the fringes of the everyday lineup, Prado exploded onto the scene last year, starting the year at 2nd base, posting a .307/.350/.459 last year. Martin makes a lot of contact, and a line drive is usually on the end of his bat. He should hit lead off this year and be a spark to the Atlanta offense whether playing left field or subbing at 3rd. Prado's bat plays best at 2nd base, but the numbers he posted last year will make him a slightly above average offensive left fielder. His defense will be a question mark, but he has been getting good reviews from the people who have seen him at Disney this spring.
Prado's presence in left is also key because it means Melky Cabrera's presence won't be needed. Among all qualified players, the Melk Dud posted -1.2 WAR which was the worst total among said qualified players in the bigs. Melky's absence means sadness for local fast food joints and night clubs in the Atlanta area, but it should mean lots of happiness for the Atlanta offense with the subtraction of a singles hitting out making machine. Expect a .300 plus average once again from Prado with 50+ extra base hits and over 100 runs scored. Add that to the fact that his value over last year will essentially be compared to Cabrera, which means Prado will start the year with 1.2 WAR head start on him. Thus a 3 WAR season out of Prado would essentially be worth 4.2 WAR to the Braves as compared to last year. That works.
Next on the list will be the much maligned Nate McLouth. The center fielder was traded to Atlanta from Pittsburgh with the expectation of being about a 3 WAR player in center, and frankly, Frank Wren had no reason to believe he would go in the tank. He was an All Star in 2008 with a .369 wOBA, while starting the season on that same pace in 2009 when the trade was made. Wren has been criticized for this trade, and wrongly in my opinion because McLouth was 27 at the time and had a proven track record of being a quality major leaguer. Plus, he gave up nothing of consequence in the deal. Truth is though, McLouth had a terrible year last year, but I think there is reason for hope because 28 year old proven hitters almost never forget how to hit. His BB rate was still very solid, and his BABIP was an unlucky .221 last year. Thus I'm expecting a bit of a bounce back from McLouth, and his spring numbers have provided me no reason to think otherwise. If he hits .260/.345/.440 this year, that would be huge when compared to his -1.3 WAR last season. Again, addition by subtraction, only in this case, its subtracting the bad McLouth with the good one. It should also be noted that McLouth is a formal Gold Glover, but in name only. Nate was probably one of the all time worst Gold Glove selection in the history of time, posting a -12 UZR in 2008 when winning it. He threw out a guy at the plate in extra innings in the All Star game and won the award because of that play and slugging .497. Awesome job voters. Well done. But anyway, McLouth should provide more value this year, and any plus value he brings will make Braves' fans very happy.
Last, and certainly not least, is right fielder Jason Heyward, and its almost all positive when it comes to him. .277/.393/.456, .376 wOBA, 5 WAR last year, and he was 20 years old. I just heard John Gruden tell Ron Jaworski, "I like this guy, Jaws." And I do too. There is a track record for players like him at age 20, and pretty much all of them involve many All Star appearances and Hall of Fame inductions when they stay healthy. And Heyward is that good. His K rate was higher than expected last year considering his minor league track record, but if he can drop that a little bit, he could raise his batting average some. That combined with a healthy thumb, which robbed him of power for about 5 weeks last year, could lead him to a .900 plus OPS this year at age 21. Plus, he's an above average defender in right with very good range and a plus arm. And, again, he's 21. I like this guy, Jaws. Pray for good health with him, because the pieces are all in place for him to become one of the games very best. Expect some gradual progression to that level as long as he is healthy this year.
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