You have to hand it to the Florida Marlins, as this team seemingly always has plenty of talent on it despite a limited payroll. They have consistently done a great job of producing talent, then dealing the talent at the right time, which in turn brings back more young talent, with which they develop it and repeat the process. Now that they are moving into a new ballpark next year (and because MLB forced their hand as well), they have locked up some of that talent long term, notably their 2 best players Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson. It will not quite get them up to the Phillies and Braves' level in the East, but this team could be over .500 this year and a nuissance to anyone they play.
Infield: The King and his Court
Since bursting onto the scene with the Marlins in 2006, Hanley Ramirez has been one of, if not the best shortstop in Major League Baseball. Blessed with a power and speed combo that would make players at any other position jealous, Ramirez also has a terrific eye at the plate, and his numbers show this. He had a down year last year, producing a triple slash of .300/.378/.475 at the shortstop position. Yeah, that was a down year for him, and significantly so. Now that he can concentrate solely on baseball and not gettting his manager fired, expect Hanley to return his OPS to above .900 this year. That would be production that only Troy Tulowitzki could hope to match from the shortstop position. Hanley's defense leaves a lot to be desired, but he's so good on offense it really doesn't matter that much.
His double play partner to start the year will probably be Omar Infante, who will replace Dan Uggla after the two swapped teams this offseason. Omar is a good contact hitter without much power or patience, so his offensive value will mainly come from his batting average. Since joining the NL in 2008, he has hit around .300 in over 1000 plate appearances. It won't make up Uggla's production, but he will provide some value at 2nd with a pretty good batting average and better defense than Uggla did. Joining Infante on the right side will be Gaby Sanchez, who played decently enough last year for them to move top prospect Logan Morrison to the outfield last year. He might show some slight improvement over last year, but he was an old prospect to begin with last year which might stunt some potential growth. I would expect his wOBA to come in around .350 this year, after producing a .346 last year. Not great production out of 1st base, but having Hanley over at short kind of cancels that out.
Third base and catcher is where things get tricky. It appears that top prospect Matt Dominguez is going to win the job at 3rd base out of spring training. While a talented player, I have my doubts as to whether the 21 year old Dominguez is ready for the show. At double A, he posted a .252/.333/.411, which is only encouraging because he will take a walk. Since he's 21, there is still plenty of time for him to develop, but as a Marlins fan, I would like it to be done in the minor leagues this year. However, Wes Helms and Emilio Bonafacio are the only other options. Helms is a 35 year old career journeyman better off in a pinch hitter's role, and Bonafacio still hasn't learned that you can't steal 1st base. He is better off in a utility/pinch runner's role than as an everyday player. Rounding out the infield behind the plate will be John Buck, who swings hard in case he hits it. He has plus power for the catching position, but he strikes out a ton and never takes a walk (3.7% BB rate last year). That combined with his move to a pitcher's park this year will probably suppress his power numbers this year, and a regression from his .335 BABIP last year will almost certainly drop his batting average as well.
Outfield: That Guy in Right Can't be Human
That guy in right would be Mike Stanton, and this blogger has never seen a 20 year old in the majors with as much power as this guy. His ISO power was .248 as a 20 year old, which makes me do a double take every time I see it. His downfall as rookie was an absurd 34.3% K rate last year, but a .259/.326/.507 as a 20 year old rookie is nothing to sneeze at. He also showed plus range in right as well, meaning he has the potential to be Adam Dunn at the plate with plus defense. And that is a very, scary thought.
The rest of the outfield isn't quite as intriguing as that (not much is), but Logan Morrison can really hit too. He is still learning left field, and he is going to be below average in left as long as he is out there, but his bat needs to play somewhere. In close to 300 plate appearances last year, he posted a 14.3 BB%, which is going to make him valuable no matter how bad his defense is. Plus, he had a .447 slugging percentage as a 22 year old last year, so I imagine that will develop a bit this year, and in a couple of years, he could be someone who challenges a .300/.400/.500 triple slash line by the time he is 26 or so. Marlins' fans should be very excited about him IMO.
The wild card in the outfield will be opening day center fielder Chris Coghlan. Coghlan was the 2009 NL Rookie of the Year playing left field, and he will open this season in center, a position that he has never played in pro ball. A natural 2nd baseman, I don't really see why they wouldn't put Coghlan at 2nd and Infante in center, who has experience playing in the major leagues at center. But anyway, Coghlan can hit as well, although it will be worth watching to see if his K rate comes back to his career norms as compared to last year. He was a great contact hitter at every level, but inexplicably struck out in 23.5% of his plate appearances last year. I expect a rebound there to be honest. He has a decent batting eye and ok power too, which combined with good contact rate will make him a solid big league hitter. However, he was a below average defender in left, which makes me believe he could be in way over his head in center defensively. As long as he avoids shaving cream pies at all cost this year, expect him to hit pretty well and give away most of that value defensively in center.
Starting Pitching: The Joshua Tree
This is the number one reason I like the Marlins over both the Mets and Nationals this year. Josh Johnson is 6'7" and 252 pounds (that's conservative) of boss. In case you haven't figured it out, I like guys who strike out over a batter an inning, don't walk people, and throw 98 mph sinkers that hitters can't elevate off the bat. It's a good combination. The Nats and Mets have aces, but both are hurt. Johnson is not, and he is coming off a 6.3 WAR season while entering his age 27 season. Boss.
Slotting in behind Johnson will be Ricky Nolasco and Javier Vazquez, which is pretty excellent because they are kind of the same guy. Both players are routinely sabermatrician's dreams as they strike out plenty of hitters while walking almost no one. Yet, Nolasco has a 4.41 ERA and Vazquez sports a 4.26, despite each player's career FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) hovering around 3.90. It is strange for people with these guy's experience to have FIPs that far apart from their ERA's, as they generally even out in the end. However, the only explanation is that both of them leave too many pitches over the heart of the plate because of their control, causing more runs to cross the plate than what you might expect from a pitcher with the peripherals that both of these players possess. However, it always makes a breakout season in play as well, so these 2 are pitchers to keep an eye on.
Rounding out the rotation should be Chris Volstad and Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez has consistently posted over 7 Ks per 9 innings, but took a step forward last year when he lowered his BB rate to 3.23. That still isn't exceptional, but when you have consistenly resided above 4 in BB rate, that is significant improvement. He posted 4+ WAR over last year, but I expect that to drop a bit this year as his HR rate regresses to regular levels. However, he should provide a lot of value as a #4 starter for the Marlins. Volstad is a former top prospect who's 6'8" frame belies what he actually is. You would expect him to blow away his opposition, but he actually pitches to contact with a good sinker. Volstad has decent control, but he will never reach the elite levels he was projected to at one point unless he strikes out a few more batters or increases his ground ball rate significantly. If he doesn't do either of those, he should still settle in as a decent back of the rotation starter. That is where he is slotting in this year, and he still possesses some upside to get better, being only 24 years old.
Bullpen: Any Closers Around?
After being a significant weakness last year, the Marlins bullpen should be better this year, as it possesses more depth than last year. However, is there a closer in the bunch? Leo Nunez will probably start the year there, but he blew 8 saves last year, mainly because his command abandons him at the worst of times. He is better in the role of set up man. However, I don't think there will be a shortage of options should he fail this year. Former Padres reliever Clay Hensley was fantastic in a set up role last year, striking out over a batter an inning on his way to a 2.16 ERA. He will probably be joined in a set up role by another former Padre Edward Mujica, who possessed a K/BB ratio of 12 to 1 last year, which is just awesome. He gives up too many homers, but he should be a good value in the bullpen because he never walks anyone. Brian Sanches did a nice job for the Marlins as well, taking advantage of the cavernous Land Shark Stadium, which tailored perfectly to his fly ball tendencies. He strikes out enough players to be effective, although I wouldn't expect 2.26 ERA again this year if his BABIP evens out like it should. If they are able to stay in these roles, the Marlins will be better served, as none of them have typical closer stuff.
Rounding out the bullpen will probably LOOGYs Randy Choate and Mike Dunn, along with ROOGY Ryan Webb. Dunn throws serious gas from the left side, while also struggling seriously with his command. If he can figure out where the ball is going, he could be a dangerous bullpen weapon. The 35 year old Choate has been around forever, but his K rate is good and his groundball rate is excellent, meaning he should be murder against left handers once again. Ryan Webb is another former Padre (good strategy, as the Padres are the best at pulling bullpen arms off the scrap heap) who is absolute murder on RH hitters, as those batters posted a .297 slugging percentage against him last year. However, LH hitters hit .333 last year against him, meaning it might be best to stick to right handers whenever possible.
Outlook: A Thorn in the Side of the Phillies and Braves
There is enough talent on this team to make some noise. However, a lot has to go right, like the bullpen falling into place, Dominguez actually being ready for majors, and whether Coghlan can man center everyday. I think the bullpen will be better, but I don't think Dominguez is ready or Coghlan can handle center. Plus, they don't have a lot of depth, so when injuries inevitably hit, I don't know if they can cope. I'm thinking 83-79 for this team, as their starting pitching is good enough to keep them in most games, and they have enough hitting talent to score a few runs too.
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