Reliability. That was the name of the game with the Atlanta Braves starting staff a year ago. None of them are clear cut number ones at this time, but the rotation strength comes in the sum of its parts rather than the talents of a couple of individuals. Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Brandon Beachy, and Mike Minor will be the main parts in some form or fashion of another solid Atlanta Braves rotation. Consistent, quality innings shouldn't be a problem for this group, and the Braves should be in most games this year as the starting pitching won't let them get too far behind in a game.
The opening day starter this year will be Derek Lowe, who isn't a number one starter despite being paid like one. However, lets appreciate Lowe for what he is, which is an innings eater who gets lots of ground balls. Lowe improved on his sub par 2009, posting an ERA of exactly 4 while increasing his K rate to 6.32 (not great, but much better than 2009) and lowering his BB rate a bit as well. However, of more interest to myself and Braves fans was his performance in September/October, when he posted these numbers; 1.17 ERA, 8.51 K rate, .88 BB rate, 1.90 FIP. Those are outstanding numbers, and they reflect a bit of a change in philosophy for Lowe, as he just about doubled the use of his slider during that final month. Don't expect numbers that dominant again, but there could be hope that a better year will be in store for Lowe. Stay tuned, and keep an eye on that.
Joining Lowe among worm killers will be Tim Hudson, who is coming off a very solid 2010. Hudson was one of the best in the league at getting groundballs last year, posting a ridiculous 64.2% ground ball rate, which I imagine means hitters think they are hitting a shotput rather than a baseball when he is delivering it to home. Hudson was a little bit lucky last year on balls in play, but his career numbers with BABIP is .280, meaning he seems to handle balls in play a little bit better than most pitchers. Of more concern is that his K rate went down and his BB rate went up, numbers we don't want to see happen again. However, if he keeps getting 2/3rds of balls in play on the ground, he should be ok. Expect more solid innings from Hudson this year.
Tommy Hanson will slide into the number 3 slot once again, and he too will be one that Fredi Gonzalez can rely on. His K rate mysteriously plummeted the last 2 months of the season (which is something to keep an eye on), but his command was still excellent in those last 2 months along with an improved ground ball ratio. Hanson is still just 24 years old, so he should continue to improve the next couple of years, and he has 4 average to plus (or even plus-plus in some people's eyes) pitches with which to work. He posted 4.3 WAR last year, and I would expect similar numbers this year, with an ERA in the low to mid 3s, a few more Ks than last year, and plenty of visits to Peachtree Tavern (I promise he'll be there on plenty of nights he isn't pitching).
A few recent question marks arrive with starter number 4 in the rotation. Jair Jurrjens looked to bounce back from an injury plagued 2010, but recent back spasms have put the start of his season into question. It supposedly isn't serious, but it is something to keep an eye on should they linger into April and beyond. A fully healthy Jair would be helpful for the Braves. However, looking at his peripherals the last couple of years show a declining pitcher, and it remains to be seen whether injuries were to blame or if it is an erosion of skills, even at the tender age of 25. The reason for worry is his ground ball rate, which dropped from over 51% in 2008 to 39.9 by the time 2010 ended. That is not a good trend. However, injuries could be to blame for that, and if he can stay healthy and keep his low 90s fastball and plus changeup sinking, he will provide plenty of good things for the Braves. Keep an eye on his ground balls if you want to know if he's right or not. He isn't as prolific as Lowe and Hudson in this regard, but if he is around 50% in ground ball rate, he is a very solid 2 or 3 starter in most rotations.
The last of the 6 notable starters will be Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor. Beachy won the #5 starters job this spring, but Minor could start the season with the big club too if Jurrjens isn't ready to go. Beachy wasn't even drafted when he came out of college, but he tore through the minor leagues like a high draft pick. His stuff isn't going to wow you, but it is more than good enough, featuring a low 90s fastball with a curveball and changeup that he can generally command. Beachy struck out 11.2 batters per 9 innings last year, while also showing pinpoint control. I don't expect his K rate to be that high in the bigs, but I think 7+ per 9 is more than reasonable. He also has been very good since turning pro at keeping the ball in the yard. He pitched great in spring training, and there seems to be a lot to like here. Minor, on the other hand, is a former top 10 draft pick who hurls from the southside, but he tore through the minors just like Beachy. After making a simple mechanical adjustment after being drafted out of Vanderbilt, Minor was suddenly throwing in the low 90s, making him a much better prospect than many had anticipated at draft time. Minor struck out about 11 per 9 innings last year in the minors, much better than anticipated when he was first drafted. He commands 3 pitches well, and posted an 11.3% swinging strike rate over 40 innings in the majors (only 3 qualified starting pitchers posted a better rate than this last year, for some perspective). He can miss bats. What to watch with him is whether he can keep the ball in the yard. He is something of a fly ball pitcher, so home runs could naturally become a problem. His command is generally solid, so keeping the ball down should help him develop into a solid starter in time and perhaps in the present. He seems to have a good future ahead of him, too, so lets hope he stays healthy and performs when he is called upon to boost his confidence.
No comments:
Post a Comment